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NASA NTRS2014

The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from LiDAR and SAR Across a Boreal Forest Structure Gradient

In this study, weexamined the uncertainty of aboveground live biomass (AGB) estimates based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements distributed across a low-biomass vegetation structure gradient fromforest to non-forest in boreal-like ecosystems. The conifer-dominant structure gradient was compiled from ground data amassed from multiple field expeditions in central Maine (USA), Aurskog (Norway), and across central Siberia (Russia). Single variable empirical models were built tomodel AGB fromremote sensingmetrics. Using thesemodels, we calculated a rootmean square error (RMSE) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of the RMSE fromthe difference between the remote sensing AGB predictions and the ground reference AGB estimates within AGB intervals across a 0-100 Mg ha(exp.−1) boreal forest structure gradient. The results show that the error in AGB predictions (RMSE) and the error uncertainty (the CI) from LiDAR and SAR change across a forest gradient. The errors of airborne LiDAR and SAR metrics and spaceborne LiDAR platforms show a general trend of reduced relative errors as AGBmagnitudes increase, particularly from0 to 60 Mg ha (exp.−1). Empirical models relating spaceborne metrics to AGB and estimates of spaceborne LiDAR error uncertainty demonstrate the difficulty of characterizing differences in AGB at the site-level with current spaceborne sensors, particularly below 80 Mg ha (exp.−1) with less than 50-100% error.

Taiga↗

NASA NTRS1992

Nonuniform thermal environmental effects on space truss structural reliability

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to quantify the range of uncertainties of buckling loads and member forces due to nonuniform thermal loads, applied loads and moments (mechanical loads), and combination of both. The truss members are assumed to be made from (1) aluminum tubes or (2) high modulus graphite-fiber/intermediate modulus epoxy-matrix composite tubes. Cumulative distribution function results show that certain combinations of thermal loads with mechanical loads reduce the probabilistic buckling loads and increase the magnitude of the member axial forces for aluminum truss. However, the reverse is true for composite truss due to very low coefficient of thermal expansion and higher stiffness of the composite. Finally, the sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the structural, material, and load variables (primitive variables) are investigated. They show that buckling loads and member axial forces are most sensitive to the uncertainties in spacial (geometry) variables.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

A formal method is described to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the materials behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe that behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from these methods demonstrate that the methods are mature and that they can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster products for competitive advantages in world markets. These results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

A formal method is described to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the materials behaviour level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe the behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from these methods demonstrate that the methods are mature and that they can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster, products for competitive advantages in world markets. These results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

A formal method is described to quantify structural reliability and risk in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties. The method is based on the materials behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe that behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where reliability and risk are usually specified. A sample case is described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that the method is mature and that it can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster products for competitive advantages in world markets. The results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic sizing of laminates with uncertainties

A reliability based design methodology for laminate sizing and configuration for a special case of composite structures is described. The methodology combines probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic structural analysis. The uncertainties of constituent materials (fiber and matrix) to predict macroscopic behavior are simulated using probabilistic theory. Uncertainties in the degradation of composite material properties are included in this design methodology. A multi-factor interaction equation is used to evaluate load and environment dependent degradation of the composite material properties at the micromechanics level. The methodology is integrated into a computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). Versatility of this design approach is demonstrated by performing a multi-level probabilistic analysis to size the laminates for design structural reliability of random type structures. The results show that laminate configurations can be selected to improve the structural reliability from three failures in 1000, to no failures in one million. Results also show that the laminates with the highest reliability are the least sensitive to the loading conditions.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Design and Reliability

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate, that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or in deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic structural analysis of space truss structures for nonuniform thermal environmental effects

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to quantify the range of uncertainties of vibration frequencies and truss free end vertical displacements due to nonuniform thermal loads, applied loads and moments (mechanical loads), and combination of both. The truss members are assumed to be made from (1) aluminum tubes or (2) high modulus graphite-fiber/intermediate modulus epoxy-matrix composite tubes. Cumulative distribution function results show that certain combination of thermal loads with mechanical loads reduce the probabilistic vibration frequencies and increase the magnitude of the truss free end vertical displacements for the aluminum truss. However, for the composite truss, the thermal effects on the probabilistic vibration frequencies are not as substantial as that for an aluminum truss. This can be attributed to the large differences in the values of coefficient of thermal expansion. Finally, the sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the structural, material and load variables (primative variables) are investigated. Results indicate that vibration frequencies and truss free end vertical displacements are sensitive to the uncertainties in spacial (geometry) variables as well as member modulus.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Line-of-sight control of the CSI evolutionary model - mu control

The design, analysis, and simulation of a control law that guarantees a fine pointing performance under external disturbances and model uncertainties are investigated. The authors examine the achievable performance and modeling errors for the control-structure interaction (CSI) evolutionary model structure and highlight the importance of accurate knowledge of structural frequencies and damping values for very lightly damped structures. Numerical results indicate that a limited but significant line-of-sight pointing performance robustness can be attained in spite of modeled structured and unstructured uncertainties in the system. The simulation results reported demonstrate typical performance levels, types of uncertainties and their magnitudes, and design tradeoffs for a realistic laboratory model of a large flexible space structure.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Research in robust control for hypersonic aircraft

The research during the second reporting period has focused on robust control design for hypersonic vehicles. An already existing design for the Hypersonic Winged-Cone Configuration has been enhanced. Uncertainty models for the effects of propulsion system perturbations due to angle of attack variations, structural vibrations, and uncertainty in control effectiveness were developed. Using H(sub infinity) and mu-synthesis techniques, various control designs were performed in order to investigate the impact of these effects on achievable robust performance.

Calise, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic assessment of smart composite structures

A composite wing with spars and bulkheads is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of probabilistic assessment of smart composite structures to control uncertainties in distortions and stresses. Results show that a smart composite wing can be controlled to minimize distortions and to have specified stress levels in the presence of defects. Structural responses such as changes in angle of attack, vertical displacements, and stress in the control and controlled plies are probabilistically assessed to quantify their respective uncertainties. Sensitivity factors are evaluated to identify those parameters that have the greatest influence on a specific structural response. Results show that smart composite structures can be configured to control both distortions and ply stresses to satisfy specified design requirements.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Autonomous Flight System Tracking and Health Monitoring

This work proposes a perspective towards establishing a framework for uncertainty quantification of autonomous system tracking and health monitoring. The approach leverages the use of a predictive process structure, which maps uncertainty sources and their interaction according to the quantity of interest and the goal of the predictive estimation. It is systematic and uses basic elements that are system agnostic, and therefore needs to be tailored according to the specificity of the application. This work is motivated by the interest in low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle operations, where awareness of vehicle and airspace state becomes more relevant as the density of autonomous operations grows rapidly. Predicted scenarios in the area of small vehicle operations and urban air mobility have no precedent, and holistic frameworks to perform prognostics and health management (PHM) at the system- and airspace-level are missing formal approaches to account for uncertainty. At the end of the paper, two case studies demonstrate implementation framework of trajectory tracking and health diagnosis for a small unmanned aerial vehicle. This work has been accepted for publication at the International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management Jan 2021. Minor edits have been incorporated to this original submission to incorporate complete overview and software integration.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic assessment of space trusses subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to quantify the range of uncertainties of buckling loads and member forces due to nonuniform thermal loads, applied loads and moments (mechanical loads), and combination of both. The truss members are assumed to be made from Aluminum tubes or high modulus graphite-fiber/intermediate modulus epoxy-matrix composite tubes. Cumulative distribution function results show that certain combinations of thermal loads with mechanical loads reduce the probabilistic buckling loads and increase the magnitude of the member axial forces for the aluminum truss. The same trend is observed for the composite truss as well, as however, the thermal effects on the probabilistic buckling loads and member axial forces are not as substantial as that for an aluminum truss. This can be attributed to the large differences in the values of coefficient of thermal expansion. Finally, the sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the structural, material, and load variables (primitive variables) are investigated. They show that buckling loads and member axial forces are most sensitive to the uncertainties in spacial (geometry) variables.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Direct Adaptive Control of Systems with Actuator Failures: State of the Art and Continuing Challenges

In this paper, the problem of controlling systems with failures and faults is introduced, and an overview of recent work on direct adaptive control for compensation of uncertain actuator failures is presented. Actuator failures may be characterized by some unknown system inputs being stuck at some unknown (fixed or varying) values at unknown time instants, that cannot be influenced by the control signals. The key task of adaptive compensation is to design the control signals in such a manner that the remaining actuators can automatically and seamlessly take over for the failed ones, and achieve desired stability and asymptotic tracking. A certain degree of redundancy is necessary to accomplish failure compensation. The objective of adaptive control design is to effectively use the available actuation redundancy to handle failures without the knowledge of the failure patterns, parameters, and time of occurrence. This is a challenging problem because failures introduce large uncertainties in the dynamic structure of the system, in addition to parametric uncertainties and unknown disturbances. The paper addresses some theoretical issues in adaptive actuator failure compensation: actuator failure modeling, redundant actuation requirements, plant-model matching, error system dynamics, adaptation laws, and stability, tracking, and performance analysis. Adaptive control designs can be shown to effectively handle uncertain actuator failures without explicit failure detection. Some open technical challenges and research problems in this important research area are discussed.

Tao, Gang↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic structural analysis of adaptive/smart/intelligent space structures

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated for adaptive/smart/intelligent behavior. For each behavior, the scatter (ranges) in buckling loads, vibration frequencies, and member axial forces are probabilistically determined. Sensitivities associated with uncertainties in the structure, material and load variables that describe the truss are determined for different probabilities. The relative magnitude for these sensitivities are used to identify significant truss variables that control/classify its behavior to respond as an adaptive/smart/intelligent structure. Results show that the probabilistic buckling loads and vibration frequencies increase for each truss classification, with a substantial increase for intelligent trusses. Similarly, the probabilistic member axial forces reduce for adaptive and intelligent trusses and increase for smart trusses.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic structural analysis of adaptive/smart/intelligent space structures

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The thermal structure of Saturn: Inferences from ground-based and airborne infrared observations

Spectroscopic and photometric infrared observations of Saturn are reviewed and compared to the expected flux from thermal structure models. Large uncertainties exist in the far-infrared measurements, but the available data indicate that the effective temperature of the disk of Saturn is 90 + or - 5 K. The thermal structure models proposed by Tokunaga and Cess and by Gautier et al. (model 'N') agree best with the observations. North-South limb scans of Saturn at 10 and 20 micrometers show that the temperature inversion is much stronger at the South polar region than at the equator.

Tokunaga, A.↗