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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution on Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Report

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) PISCEES is a SciDAC Earth System Modeling project with the following goals: To develop and apply robust, accurate, and scalable dynamical cores for ice sheet modeling on structured and unstructured meshes with adaptive refinements To evaluate ice sheet models using new tools and data sets for verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) To integrate these models and tools into DOE's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) using improved estimates of ice sheet initial conditions, we will simulate decade-to-century-scale evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, running PISCEES ice sheet models both in standalone mode and coupled to ACME. We aim to provide useful, credible predictions, including uncertainty ranges, of future ice-sheet mass loss and resulting changes in climate and sea level. PISCEES is jointly funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) of the DOE Office of Science. Participating institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Florida State University (FSU) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) University of South Carolina (USC) University of Texas at Austin (UT) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (https://www.scidac.gov/PISCEES/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty due to Nuclear Data for an MTR Fuel Assembly

For a research reactor, and in particular for the High Flux Reactor (HFR) in Petten, every cycle has a distinct core loading. This regards both the fuel assemblies loading and mainly the loading of the experiment rigs. These experiments can be of the most diverse types, comprising strong absorbing materials as well as fissile isotopes. This poses some challenges at every cycle because of the possible influence on the power profile and neutron flux distribution, which are of great importance for the isotopic production facilities loaded at every cycle in the case of the HFR. The isotope production facilities require predictable and preferably as constant as possible irradiation conditions (neutron flux levels, mainly). Another point of interest is the cycle length, which has to be guaranteed beforehand by taking into account in the assessment analysis the expected on-power core loading changes. These changes are caused by regular loading/unloading of some of the isotope production rigs. For optimization reasons, there is also a tendency to increase the cycle lengths and at the same time to minimize the costs associated to the loading of fresh fuel and control rod assemblies. To justify a further increase in cycle length, a quantification of the uncertainties on the reactivity curve is required, so that the adopted design margins can be decreased in a controlled and responsible manner. The uncertainties in the reactivity curve can be associated to several sources, ranging from uncertainties in engineering and operational parameters to uncertainties in basic nuclear data. This paper includes the quantification of uncertainty on the reactivity curve associated to a typical HFR fuel assembly as result of uncertainties in the cross section data of the main fuel, structural and coolant isotopes. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Interrogation of Alkali-Silica Reaction Degraded Concrete Samples using Acoustic and Thermal Techniques to Support Development of a Structural Health Monitoring Framework

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Health monitoring of concrete structures is performed to understand the current condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements and then produce high-confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity. This information can then be used to support operational and maintenance decisions. The proposed diagnosis and prognosis framework consists of four elements: health monitoring, data analytics, uncertainty quantification, and prognosis. The objectives of this ongoing research project focuses on health monitoring and data analytics of concrete slab cast, which is cured using four pockets of reactive aggregates: pure silica, wells, placitas, and spratt. A controlled concrete slab with four aggregates is cast at Vanderbilt University in representative conditions to accelerate degradation due to alkali-silica reaction (ASR). Four nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques (thermography, mechanical deformation measurements, nonlinear impact resonance-acoustic spectroscopy, and vibro-acoustic modulation) are used to examine the degraded concrete slab. Heterogeneous data from these techniques are analyzed for assessing ASRrelated degradation in concrete samples. In addition, this report discusses thermography assessment of three cement bricks cured under different conditions to accelerate ASR-related degradation. The application of the digital image correlation technique to study ASR-related degradation on a large concrete sample at the University of Tennessee Knoxville is discussed and initial observations are presented in this report. The results from the data analysis of the NDE techniques on concrete slab cured at Vanderbilt University are discussed in detail in this report. The major outcome of the analysis suggests that the nonlinear impact resonance acoustic spectroscopy is able to detect potential degradation in a concrete slab but is unable to locate or isolate the degradation. Alternatively, the vibro-acoustic technique is able to detect degradation and locate the damage in the concrete slab cast. The outcomes supports development of a structural health monitoring framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Text Mining for Process–Structure–Properties Relationships in Metals

With the advent of large language models (LLMs), the vast unstructured text within millions of academic papers is increasingly accessible for materials discovery—although significant challenges remain. While LLMs offer promising few- and zero-shot learning capabilities, particularly valuable in the materials domain where expert annotations are scarce, general-purpose LLMs often fail to address key materials-specific queries without further adaptation. To bridge this gap, fine-tuning LLMs on human-labeled data is essential for effective structured knowledge extraction (Liu in The Importance of Human-Labeled Data in the Era of LLMs, 2023). Here, in this study, we introduce a novel annotation schema designed to extract generic process–structure–properties relationships from scientific literature. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using a dataset of 128 abstracts, with annotations drawn from two distinct domains: high-temperature materials (Domain I) and uncertainty quantification in simulating materials microstructure (Domain II). Initially, we developed a conditional random field (CRF) model based on MatBERT—a domain-specific BERT variant—and evaluated its performance on Domain I. Subsequently, we compared this model with a fine-tuned LLM (GPT-4o from OpenAI) under identical conditions. Our results indicate that fine-tuning LLMs can significantly improve entity extraction performance over the BERT-CRF baseline on Domain I. However, when additional examples from Domain II were incorporated, the performance of the BERT-CRF model became comparable to that of the GPT-4o model. These findings underscore the potential of our schema for structured knowledge extraction and highlight the complementary strengths of both modeling approaches.

Materials science↗

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Approach to Uncertainty Identification in the Valuation of Transactive Energy Systems

Valuation of transactive energy (TE) systems should be supported by a structured and systematic approach to uncertainty identification, assessment, and treatment in the interest of risk-informed decision making. The proposed approach, a variation of fault tree analysis, is anticipated to support valuation analysts in analyzing conventional and transactive system scenarios. This approach allows for expanding the entire tree up to the level of minute details or collapsing them to a level sufficient enough to get an overview of the problem. Quantification scheme for the described approach lends itself for valuation. The method complements value exchange analysis, simulation, and field demonstration studies. The practicality of the proposed approach is demonstrated through uncertainty assessment of the smart grid interoperability panel peak heat day scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Bayesian desmearing algorithm for Bonse–Hart USANS with anisotropic scattering

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) using Bonse–Hart optics provides micrometer-scale structural insights but suffers from severe slit-geometry smearing. While well-established for isotropic systems, quantitative desmearing of anisotropic data remains a challenge because conventional corrections break down for non-radial scattering. In this work, we address this by developing a resolution-aware Bayesian framework that explicitly incorporates anisotropy via an affine deformation to the scattering pattern, guided by the principle of parsimony. This results in orientation-resolved point-spread functions that enable a self-consistent determination of both the resolution and deformation parameters. Using Gaussian process regression with uncertainty quantification and a probabilistic correction for multiple scattering, we demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness through numerical benchmarks and experimental studies of a stretched polymer melt. Our approach enables the seamless integration of SANS and USANS data, facilitating quantitative structural analysis of deformed materials at nanometer to micrometer scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Desmearing Bonse–Hart USANS data using Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) enables access to micrometer-scale structures but is intrinsically affected by strong, anisotropic resolution smearing arising from slit-geometry optics. As a result, recovery of the intrinsic scattering intensity constitutes an ill-posed inverse problem, and commonly used iterative desmearing methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We present a Bayesian desmearing framework for slit-geometry USANS based on Gaussian process regression. In this approach, the scattering intensity is modeled as a smooth random function, and the instrumental point spread function is incorporated explicitly as a forward operator. The resulting formulation yields a closed-form maximum a posteriori solution with well-defined credibility intervals. Computational benchmarks and experimental validation using combined USANS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements demonstrate that the framework enables stable desmearing, suppresses experimental noise, and preserves physically meaningful structural features under realistic conditions.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Navigating Transition-Metal Chemical Space: Artificial Intelligence for First-Principles Design

Conspectus The variability of chemical bonding in open-shell transition-metal complexes not only motivates their study as functional materials and catalysts but also challenges conventional computational modeling tools. Here, tailoring ligand chemistry can alter preferred spin or oxidation states as well as electronic structure properties and reactivity, creating vast regions of chemical space to explore when designing new materials atom by atom. Although first-principles density functional theory (DFT) remains the workhorse of computational chemistry in mechanism deduction and property prediction, it is of limited use here. DFT is both far too computationally costly for widespread exploration of transition-metal chemical space and also prone to inaccuracies that limit its predictive performance for localized d electrons in transition-metal complexes. These challenges starkly contrast with the well-trodden regions of small-organic-molecule chemical space, where the analytical forms of molecular mechanics force fields and semiempirical theories have for decades accelerated the discovery of new molecules, accurate DFT functional performance has been demonstrated, and gold-standard methods from correlated wavefunction theory can predict experimental results to chemical accuracy. The combined promise of transition-metal chemical space exploration and lack of established tools has mandated a distinct approach. In this Account, we outline the path we charted in exploration of transition-metal chemical space starting from the first machine learning (ML) models (i.e., artificial neural network and kernel ridge regression) and representations for the prediction of open-shell transition-metal complex properties. The distinct importance of the immediate coordination environment of the metal center as well as the lack of low-level methods to accurately predict structural properties in this coordination environment first motivated and then benefited from these ML models and representations. Once developed, the recipe for prediction of geometric, spin state, and redox potential properties was straightforwardly extended to a diverse range of other properties, including in catalysis, computational “feasibility”, and the gas separation properties of periodic metal–organic frameworks. Interpretation of selected features most important for model prediction revealed new ways to encapsulate design rules and confirmed that models were robustly mapping essential structure–property relationships. Encountering the special challenge of ensuring that good model performance could generalize to new discovery targets motivated investigation of how to best carry out model uncertainty quantification. Distance-based approaches, whether in model latent space or in carefully engineered feature space, provided intuitive measures of the domain of applicability. With all of these pieces together, ML can be harnessed as an engine to tackle the large-scale exploration of transition-metal chemical space needed to satisfy multiple objectives using efficient global optimization methods. In practical terms, bringing these artificial intelligence tools to bear on the problems of transition-metal chemical space exploration has resulted in ML-model assessments of large, multimillion compound spaces in minutes and validated new design leads in weeks instead of decades.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗

UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF CALCULATED FUEL TEMPERATURE FOR AGR-3/4 IRRADIATION EXPERIMENT

The third in a series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) experiments conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory, AGR-3/4, was completed in April 2014, resulting in irradiation of the tristructural isotropic fuel for 369 effective full power days. A number of designed-to-fail fuel particles were embedded along the central line of each irradiated compact to provide a known source of fission products for subsequent transport through the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. The fuel temperature in each capsule during irradiation, a significant factor in the release and transport of fission products, was maintained within a predefined range representative of a high temperature gas reactor. Fuel temperatures were not measured directly because contact between a thermocouple and the fuel could lead to unwanted particle failures. An ABAQUS-based finite element heat transfer code, calibrated based on temperatures measured in the surrounding graphite rings, was used to predict fuel temperatures during irradiation. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures, thermal model parameters with high sensitivity and/or large uncertainty were identified. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Quantification of input uncertainties over the extended irradiation period of the AGR-3/4 experiment is a challenging task due to changes in capsule thermal properties and geometry caused by exposure to neutron irradiation at high temperatures. In the absence of direct measurements or complete knowledge about these changes, inputs to thermal model and associated uncertainties are estimated based on modeling assumptions and expert judgment. Unplanned events that occurred during irradiation contribute to input uncertainties as well. For example, shrinkage of fuel compact and graphite rings led to significant increase in the gap size uncertainties. This paper focuses on uncertainty quantification of calculated fuel temperature for AGR-3/4 capsule thermal models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗