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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C. Andrews↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of AIRS Version-6 OLR Climatologies and Anomaly Time Series with Those of CERES and MERRA-2

RCs of AIRS and MERRA-2 500 mb specific humidity agree very well in terms of spatial patterns, but MERRA-2 ARCs are larger in magnitude and show a spurious moistening globally and over Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 fractional cloud cover ARCs agree less well with each other. MERRA-2 shows a spurious global mean increase in cloud cover that is not found in AIRS, including a large spurious cloud increase in Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 ARCs of surface skin and surface air temperatures are all similar to each other in patterns. AIRS shows a small global warming over the 13 year period, while MERRA-2 shows a small global cooling. This difference results primarily from spurious MERRA-2 temperature trends at high latitudes and over Central Africa. These differences all contribute to the spurious negative global MERRA-2 OLR trend. AIRS Version-6 confirms that 2015 is the warmest year on record and that the Earth's surface is continuing to warm.

AIRS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Accuracy requirements

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Delgenio, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Satellite, Thermochron and Air Temperatures at Summit, Greenland, During the Winter of 2008/09

Current trends show rise in Arctic surface and air temperatures, including over the Greenland ice sheet where rising temperatures will contribute to increased sea-level rise through increased melt. We aim to establish the uncertainties in using satellite-derived surface temperature for measuring Arctic surface temperature, as satellite data are increasingly being used to assess temperature trends. To accomplish this, satellite-derived surface temperature, or land-surface temperature (LST), must be validated and limitations of the satellite data must he assessed quantitatively. During the 2008/09 boreal winter at Summit, Greenland, we employed data from standard US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air-temperature instruments, button-sized temperature sensors called thermochrons and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument to (1) assess the accuracy and utility of thermochrons in an ice-sheet environment and (2) compare MODIS-derived LSTs with thermochron-derived surface and air temperatures. The thermochron-derived air temperatures were very accurate, within 0.1+/-0.3 C of the NOAA-derived air temperature, but thermochron-derived surface temperatures were approx. 3 C higher than MODIS-derived LSTs. Though the surface temperature is largely determined by air temperature, these variables can differ significantly. Furthermore, we show that the winter-time mean air temperature, adjusted to surface temperature was approx. 11 C higher than the winter-time mean MODIS-derived LST. This marked difference occurs largely because of satellite-derived LSTs cannot be measured through cloud cover, so caution must be exercised in using time series of satellite LST data to study seasonal temperature trends.

Koenig, Lora S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Modeled Snow Mass in GEOS with Snow Cover Fraction Assimilation

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing (FP) global weather analysis often considerably underestimates near-surface air temperature during the spring snow melt season, which can be caused by excessive simulated snow cover. To mitigate such errors, we developed an empirical snow cover fraction (SCF) analysis to assimilate SCF observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into the GEOS Catchment land surface model. Results obtained with a land-only version of the system indicate that the SCF analysis reduces errors in snow mass and snow depth by ~10% when compared to in situ measurements from the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL), Canadian historical Snow Water Equivalent dataset (CanSWE), and Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) networks.

Rolf Reichle↗

NASA NTRS1987

The doubled CO2 climate - Impact of the sea surface temperature gradient

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM of Hansen et al. (1983) was run, with 4 deg x 5 deg resolution, with doubled CO2 and two sets of sea surface temperature gradient distributions. One set was derived from the equilibrium doubled CO2 run of the 8 deg x 10 deg GISS GCM, with minimal high latitude amplification. The other set resembled closely the GFDL model results, with greater amplification. Both experiments had the same global mean surface air temperature change. The two experiments were often found to produce substantially different climate characteristics. With reduced high latitude amplification (set one), and thus, more equatorial warming, there was a greater increase in specific humidity and the greenhouse capacity of the atmosphere, resulting in a warmer atmosphere in general. Features such as the low-latitude precipitation, Hadley cell intensity, jet stream magnitude, and atmospheric energy transports all increased in comparison with the control run. In contrast, these features all decreased in the experiment with greater high latitude amplification (set two).

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS1994

Surface temperatures in the polar regions from Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer

Monthly surface temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic regions have been derived from the 11.5 micrometer thermal infrared channel of the Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) for a whole year in 1979 and for a winter and a summer month from 1980 through 1985. The data set shows interannual variability and provides spatial details that allow identification of temperature patterns over sea ice and ice sheet surfaces. For example, the coldest spot in the southern hemisphere is observed to be consistently in the Antarctic plateau in the southern hemisphere, while that in the northern hemisphere is usually located in Greenland, or one of three other general areas: Siberia, the central Arctic, or the Canadian Archipelago. Also, in the southern hemisphere, the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation of ice sheet temperatures is about 3 times that of sea ice, while in the northern hemisphere, the corresponding fluctuations for the two surfaces are about the same. The main sources of error in the retrieval are cloud and other atmospheric effects. These were minimized by first choosing the highest radiance value from the set of measurements during the day taken within a 30 km by 30 km grid of each daily map. Then the difference of daily maps was taken and where the difference is greater than a certain threshold (which in this case is 12 C), the data element is deleted. Overall, the monthly maps derived from the resulting daily maps are spatially and temporally consistent, are coherent with the topograph y of the Antarctic continent and the location of the sea ice edge, and are in qualitative agreement with climatological data. Quantitatively, THIR data are in good agreement with Antarctic ice sheet surface air temperature station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a standard deviation of 2.0 C. The absolute values are not as good over the sea ice edges, but a comparison with Russian 2-m drift station temperatures shows very high correlation (with correlation coefficient at 0.998) and a standard deviation of 1.1 C. Overall, the rms error is estimated to be from 1 to 2 C, depending on the surface, while the average bias when compared with in situ data is less than 2 C.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6-2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world4. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data-model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data- model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data-model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

Salzmann, Ulrich↗

NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Clouds and Blowing Snow on Surface and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Properties over Dome C, Antarctica

Clouds and blowing snow (BLSN) occur frequently over Antarctica, where it is critical to understand their feedbacks to surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes. Dome C, an elevated East Antarctic station, dominated by lengthy periods of surface longwave (LW) radiative cooling, is selected to reveal cloud and BLSN impacts within a largely stable environment. The sky condition is classified as clear, cloudy, or BLSN, using 3 years of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations satellite data. Co-located and contemporaneous in situ observations are used to investigate the relationship of sky condition with surface and atmospheric boundary layer thermal structure, focusing on seasonal variability. Results show that increased downwelling LW radiation from clouds abate surface radiative cooling losses, contributing to warming during all seasons. An increase of 3°C in the mean surface air temperature is observed during spring, whereas, a more dramatic rise (around 10°C), due to accompanying large-scale subsidence, is observed during fall and winter in association with clouds. For all seasons, the wind speed and wind speed shear are strongest during BLSN events, and the surface-based inversion is weakened by cooling which peaks in a shallow above-surface turbulent layer. The stronger background stability during fall and winter seasons, restricts turbulence and BLSN depths generally to the lowest tens of meters. The Earth's cryosphere is among the most rapidly evolving yet least well-observed regions, and knowledge of clouds and BLSN interactions with the typical stable atmospheric boundary layer can help further understand energy and moisture exchanges.

CALIPSO↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s

In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

MacKay, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Chung, Serena H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sensible heat flux - Radiometric surface temperature relationship for eight semiarid areas

Measurements of sensible heat flux, radiometric surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed made at eight semiarid rangeland sites were used to investigate the sensible heat flux-aerodynamic resistance relationship. The individual sites covered a wide range of vegetation (0.1-4 m tall) and cover (3%-95% bare soil) conditions. Mean values of k/B, a quantity related to the resistance of heat versus momentum transfer at the surface, for the individual sites varied between 3.5 and 12.5. A preliminary test of the utility of an excess resistance based on the mean value of k/B showed that the difference between the mean estimated and measured sensible heat fluxes varied +/- 60 W/sq m for the eight semiarid sites. For the eight sites the values of k/B were plotted against the roughness Reynolds number. The plot showed considerable scatter with values ranging between and beyond the theoretical curves for bluff rough and permeable rough surfaces.

Stewart, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of Model and Observed Regional Temperature Changes During the Past 40 Years

Results are presented for six simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model for the years 1950 to 2099. There are two control simulations with constant 1950 atmospheric composition from different initial states, two GHG experiments with observed greenhouse gases up to 1990 and compounded .5% CO2 annual increases thereafter, and two GHG+SO4 experiments with the same varying greenhouse gases plus varying tropospheric sulfate aerosols. Surface air temperature trends in the two GHG experiments are compared between themselves and with the observed temperature record from 1960 and 1998. All comparisons show high positive spatial correlation in the northern hemisphere except in summer when the greenhouse signal is weakest. The GHG+SO4 experiments show weaker correlations. In the southern hemisphere, correlations are either weak or negative which in part are due to the model's unrealistic interannual variability of southern sea ice cover. The model results imply that temperature changes due to forcing by increased greenhouse gases have risen above the level of regional interannual temperature variability in the northern hemisphere over the past 40 years. This period is thus an important test of reliability of coupled climate models.

Russell, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Constraining Human Contributions to Observed Warming Since the Pre-industrial Period

Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Attribution↗

NASA NTRS1986

Correlations between Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer data and an antecedent precipitation index

Passive microwave brightness temperatures from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) can be used to infer the soil moisture content over agricultural areas such as the southern Great Plains of the United States. A linear regression analysis between three transforms of the five dual polarized SMMR wavelengths of 0.81, 1.36, 1.66, 2.80 and 4.54 cm and an antecedent precipitation index representing the precipitation history showed correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 for pixel aggregates of 25-50 km. The use of surface air temperatures to approximate the temperature of the emitting layer was not required to obtain high correlation coefficients between the transforms and the antecedent precipitation index.

Wilke, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The role of sea ice in 2 x CO2 climate model sensitivity. Part 1: The total influence of sea ice thickness and extent

As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2, the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature senstivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 C), because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus, its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run, which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes, including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations, amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling, accounting for 1.56 C of the 4.17 C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations, necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models.

Rind, D.↗