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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Environmental conditions, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2019

Environmental conditions measured in five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska from 19 June – 25 September, 2019. These data were recorded in support of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment, a series of single season vegetation warming treatments conducted over four years from 2017–2021 (no experiment in 2020). Air temperature and humidity, infrared surface (canopy) temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), PRI (photochemical reflectance index), solar radiation and chamber venting were recorded in each chamber at 1 minute intervals. Ambient air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and uplooking PRI and NDVI were measured at a centrally located meteorology station. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was calculated and included in the final processed data products. Data has undergone full QA/QC and is presented as 1 minute data, and hourly and daily aggregate data products. This data package includes unprocessed raw data (*.dat files), processed data (*.csv) and metadata including a full description of sensors, calculations and processing (*.csv, *.pdf). See related NGEE-Arctic "Vegetation Warming Experiment" data packages for leaf-level gas exchange and other leaf trait data; chamber, plot and landscape phenocamera images; thaw depth, and GPS locations of chambers and ambient plots.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Environmental Conditions, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

Environmental conditions measured in five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska from 16 June - 24 September, 2018. These data were recorded in support of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment, a series of single season vegetation warming treatments conducted over four years from 2017-2021 (no experiment in 2020). Air temperature and humidity, infrared surface (canopy) temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), PRI (photochemical reflectance index), solar radiation and chamber venting were recorded in each chamber at 1 minute intervals. Ambient air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and uplooking PRI and NDVI were measured at a centrally located meteorology station. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was calculated and included in the final processed data products. Data has undergone full QA/QC and is presented as 1 minute data, and hourly and daily aggregate data products. This data package includes unprocessed raw data (*.dat files), processed data (*.csv) and metadata including a full description of sensors, calculations and processing (*.csv, *.pdf). See related NGEE-Arctic "Vegetation Warming Experiment" data packages for leaf-level gas exchange and other leaf trait data; chamber, plot and landscape phenocamera images; thaw depth, and GPS locations of chambers and ambient plots.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO 2 on global streamflow

River flow statistics are expected to change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO 2 but uncertainty in Earth system model projections is high. While this is partly driven by changing precipitation, with well-known Earth system model uncertainties, in this work we show that the influence of plant stomatal conductance feedbacks can cause equally large changes in regional flood extremes and even act as the main control on future low latitude streamflow. Over most tropical land masses, modern climate predictions suggest that plant physiological effects will boost streamflow, overwhelming opposing effects of soil drying driven by the effects of CO 2 on atmospheric radiation, warming and rainfall redistribution. The relatively unknown uncertainties in representing eco-physiological processes must therefore be better constrained in land-surface models. To this end, we identify a distinct plant physiological fingerprint on annual peak, low and mean discharge throughout the tropics and identify river basins where physiological responses dominate radiative responses to rising CO 2 in modern climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Reanalysis-Based Offshore Wind Resource Characterization Using Lidar Buoy Observations

The offshore wind industry in the U.S. is gaining strong momentum to achieve sustainable energy goals, and the need for observations to provide resource characterization and model validation is greater than ever. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect hub height wind data and associated meteorological and oceanographic information near the surface in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work evaluates the performance of commonly used reanalysis products and spatial approximation techniques using lidar buoy observations off the coast of New Jersey and Virginia, USA. Reanalysis products are essential tools in order to set performance expectations and quantify the wind resource variability at a given site. Long-term accurate observations at typical wind turbine hub-heights have been lacking at offshore locations. Using wind speed observations from both lidar buoy deployments, biases and degrees of correspondence for the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are examined both at hub height and near surface. Results provide insights on the performance and uncertainty of using reanalysis products for long-term wind resource characterization.

lidar buoy, model validation, offshore wind energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of surface energy fluxes and meteorology in the seasonally snow-covered high-elevation East River watershed during SPLASH, 2021–2023

Abstract. From autumn 2021 through summer 2023, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners conducted the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaign in the East River watershed of Colorado. One objective of SPLASH was to observe the transfer of energy between the atmosphere and the surface, which was done at several locations. Two remote sites were chosen that did not have access to power utilities. These were along the valley floor near the East River in the vicinity of the unincorporated town of Gothic, Colorado. Energy balance measurements were made at these locations using autonomous, single-level flux towers referred to as atmospheric surface flux stations (ASFSs). The ASFSs were deployed on 28 September 2021 at the Kettle Ponds Annex site and on 12 October 2021 at the Avery Picnic site and operated until 19 July and 21 June 2023, respectively. Measurements included basic meteorology; upward and downward longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes and subsurface conductive flux, each at 1 min resolution; 3-D winds from a sonic anemometer and H2O/CO2 from an open-path gas analyzer, both at 20 Hz from which sensible, latent heat, and CO2 fluxes were derived; and profiles of soil properties in the upper 0.5 m (both sites) and temperature profiles through the snow (at Avery Picnic), each reported between 10 min and 6 h. The system uptime was 97 % (Kettle Ponds) and 90 % (Avery Picnic), and collectively 1184 d of data was obtained between the stations. The purpose of this article is to document the ASFS deployment at SPLASH, to document the data acquisition and post-processing of measurements, and to serve as a guide for interested users of the data sets, which are archived at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10313363, Cox et al., 2023b; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10327409, Cox et al., 2023c; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10313894, Cox et al., 2023d; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10307825, Cox et al., 2023e; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10310520, Cox et al., 2023f) with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

Cox, Christopher J. (ORCID:0000000322037173)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

NARAC Meteorological Monitoring Tower Maintenance Report: Submarine Base Group Two, Sub Base New London NEWLBASE2 Tower

Comments: The roof-based tower is located on Building 17 on Naval Submarine Base New London. Tower installation date is unknown. A second GFCI outlet in-line with the standard GFCI in the logger enclosure is mounted on conduit out of the tower base pedestal. The roof surface has been replaced and is now safe to walk on. The tower was not climbed during this maintenance visit. After the maintenance visit in 2018, the tower was deemed unsafe to climb due to age, corrosion, and deterioration of the tower components. The wind, air temperature, and relative humidity sensors located on the upper part of the tower require climbing of the tower for servicing and could not be accessed for inspection and maintenance. The tower is scheduled for replacement in FY2023. Tasks to be Completed: Tower system replacement / relocation. Consider replacement or bypassing of the suspect precipitation gauge signal connector.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating Integrated Surface/Subsurface Permafrost Thermal Hydrology Models in ATS (v0.88) Against Observations from a Polygonal Tundra Site: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive supports the NGEE Arctic publication "Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site" available in the Geoscientific Model Development journal. We evaluated the integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) against field observations in polygonal tundra at the Barrow Environmental Observatory. We simulated thermal hydrology of three-dimensional ice-wedge polygons with generic but broadly representative surface microtopography. We drove the simulations with meteorological data and observed water table elevations in ice-wedge polygon troughs. With limited calibration of the soil properties and evaporation model parameters, the simulations were found to be consistent with observed water tables, active layer thickness, snowpack depth, evaporation, and observed soil temperatures at several depths in trough, rim, and center. The study builds confidence in the emerging class of integrated surface/subsurface permafrost simulators and provides an optimized set of model parameters for use in projections of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. This dataset includes python, html, pdf, EXO, H5, xlsx, and csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monthly Mean In Situ Surface Flux Observations Paired with Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis-Based Flux Data for the Great Lakes Region, 2001–2020

Surface radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over the Great Lakes strongly influence regional hydrological and meteorological processes, and their accurate representation is critical for numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake modeling. However, direct flux observations are spatially sparse across the region, so gridded reanalysis and satellite-derived products are often used for climatological analyses and model evaluation despite differences in their flux representations. This dataset provides processed, quality-controlled, monthly mean surface flux observations from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN), AmeriFlux, and the National Data Buoy Center, paired with spatiotemporally matched flux estimates from two reanalysis products, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and two satellite-derived products, the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES-EBAF) and the Cloud, Albedo and Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data - Edition 3 (CLARA-A3). The dataset includes sixteen observational stations with variable temporal coverage within 2001–2020. For each station, a CSV file contains monthly time series of available flux variables, including surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SW), surface downwelling longwave radiation (LW), sensible heat (SH) flux, and latent heat flux (LH), alongside matched gridded product values where available. Columns in the CSV file correspond to different variables sourced from each dataset, with column titles structured as "{dataset}_{variable}". Columns with relevant metadata are also provided in each CSV file, including station latitude and longitude, monthly timestamps, and the name of the sourced observational data. These files are structured for direct use in common analysis tools, including Microsoft Excel, Python pandas, and Python matplotlib. This dataset supports climatological analysis of the Great Lakes regional surface energy budget, evaluation of satellite-derived and reanalysis-based flux products, and development or validation of flux representations in numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake models.

Great Lakes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observing low-altitude features in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment via uncrewed aerial systems

Abstract. Ozone is a pollutant formed in the atmosphere by photochemical processes involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) when exposed to sunlight. Tropospheric boundary layer ozone is regularly measured at ground stations and sampled infrequently through balloon, lidar, and crewed aircraft platforms, which have demonstrated characteristic patterns with altitude. Here, to better resolve vertical profiles of ozone within the atmospheric boundary layer, we developed and evaluated an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) platform for measuring ozone and meteorological parameters of temperature, pressure, and humidity. To evaluate this approach, a UAS was flown with a portable ozone monitor and a meteorological temperature and humidity sensor to compare to tall tower measurements in northern Wisconsin. In June 2020, as a part of the WiscoDISCO20 campaign, a DJI M600 hexacopter UAS was flown with the same sensors to measure Lake Michigan shoreline ozone concentrations. This latter UAS experiment revealed a low-altitude structure in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment showing the highest ozone at altitudes from 20–100 m a.g.l. These first such measurements of low-altitude ozone via a UAS in the Great Lakes region revealed a very shallow layer of ozone-rich air lying above the surface.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s

Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output

Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗