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NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Connley, Warren↗

NASA NTRS2004

Office of Biological and Physical Research: Overview Transitioning to the Vision for Space Exploration

Viewgraphs on NASA's transition to its vision for space exploration is presented. The topics include: 1) Strategic Directives Guiding the Human Support Technology Program; 2) Progressive Capabilities; 3) A Journey to Inspire, Innovate, and Discover; 4) Risk Mitigation Status Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Countermeasures Readiness Level (CRL); 5) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Aligning With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 6) Critical Path Roadmap Reference Missions; 7) Rating Risks; 8) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: Human Health; 9) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: System Performance/Efficiency; 10) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Efforts to Align With Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 11) Aligning with the Vision: Exploration Research Areas of Emphasis; 12) Code U Efforts To Align With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 13) Types of Critical Path Roadmap Risks; and 14) ISS Human Support Systems Research, Development, and Demonstration. A summary discussing the vision for U.S. space exploration is also provided.

Crouch, Roger↗

NASA NTRS1978

The ILLIAC IV memory system: Current status and future possibilities

The future needs of researchers who will use the Illiac were examined and the requirements they will place on the memory system were evaluated. Various alternatives to replacing critical memory components were considered with regard to cost, risk, system impact, software requirements, and implementation schedules. The current system, its performance and status, and the limitations it places on possible enhancements are discussed as well as the planned enhancements to the Illiac processor. After a brief technology survey, different implementations are presented for each system memory component. Three different memory systems are proposed to meet the identified needs of the Illiac user community. These three alternatives differ considerably with respect to storage capacity and accessing capabilities, but they all offer significant improvements over the current system. The proposed systems and their relative merits are analyzed.

Stevenson, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space systems engineering and risk management - joined at the hip

This paper explores the separate skills and capabilities practiced until now, and the powerful coupling to be achieved, practically and effectively, in implementing a space mission, from inception (pre-phase A) to the end of Operations (phase E). The use of risk assessment techniques in balancing cost risk against performance risk, and the application of the systems engineering team in these trades, is the key to achieving this new implementation paradigm.

systems engineering↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Systems Engineering and Risk Management Defend Against Murphy's Law and Human Error

Systems Engineering and Risk Management processes can work synergistically to defend against the causes of many mission ending failures. Defending against mission ending failures is facilitated by fostering a team that has a healthy respect for Murphy's Law and a team with a of curiosity for how things work, how they can fail, and what they need to know. This curiosity is channeled into making the unknowns known or what is uncertain more certain. Efforts to assure mission success require the expenditure of energy in the following areas: 1. Understanding what defines Mission Success as guided by the customer's needs, objectives and constraints. 2. Understanding how the system is supposed to work and how the system is to be produced, fueled by the curiosity of how the system should work and how it should be produced. 3. Understanding how the system can fail and how the system might not be produced on time and within cost, fueled by the curiosity of how the system might fail and how production might be difficult. 4. Understanding what we need to know and what we need learn for proper completion of the above three items, fueled by the curiosity of what we might not know in order to make the best decisions.

Bay, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using Bayesian Estimation to Quantify the Risks of Spaceflight

Complex PRA is the best method and current gold standard, as it allows us to reflect changes (improvements) in individual spacecraft system risks over time. Yet, Bayesian methods – using simple inputs – allowed us to get estimates that are in line with high-complexity PRA. Here Bayesian estimation acts as a “gut check” on PRA (supposing a “reasonable” prior is used). Frequentist calculations can overestimate P(failure), especially when total number of trials are few (e.g., after Challenger). In general, Bayesian probability estimation can be used in any risk assessment situation to integrate what we think we know ahead of time with what we observe over time.

Reynolds, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of space systems for the space disposal of nuclear waste follow-on study. Volume 2: Technical report

The space option for disposal of certain high-level nuclear wastes in space as a complement to mined geological repositories is studied. A brief overview of the study background, scope, objective, guidelines and assumptions, and contents is presented. The determination of the effects of variations in the waste mix on the space systems concept to allow determination of the space systems effect on total system risk benefits when used as a complement to the DOE reference mined geological repository is studied. The waste payload system, launch site, launch system, and orbit transfer system are all addressed. Rescue mission requirements are studied. The characteristics of waste forms suitable for space disposal are identified. Trajectories and performance requirements are discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism on station. For the longer missions of the ISS, astronauts require a larger, more robust set of coping skills and more psychological support. Evidence of this are the number of BHP’s Operational Psychology (Op Psy) staff who have been awarded silver Snoopys by long duration astronauts†, in the statements of praise for the Op Psy and Family Support Office teams, and in the written and oral statements from flown astronauts regarding difficulty of longer missions and how much Op Psy helped.

Slack, Kelley J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Medical System Concept of Operations for Mars Exploration Mission-11: Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element - Human Research Program

NASA’s exploration missions to Mars will have durations of 2-3 years and will take humans farther away from Earth than ever before. This will result in a paradigm shift for mission planning, spacecraft design, human systems integration, and in-flight medical care. Constraints on real-time communication, resupply, and medical evacuation are major architectural drivers. These constraints require medical system development to be tightly integrated with mission and vehicle design to provide crew autonomy and enable mission success. This concept of operations provides a common vision of medical care for developing a medical system for Mars exploration missions. It documents an overview of the stakeholder needs and goals of a medical system and provides examples of the types of activities the system will be used for during the mission. Development of the concept of operations considers mission variables such as distance from Earth, duration of mission, time to definitive medical care, communication protocols between crewmembers and ground support, personnel capabilities and skill sets, medical hardware and software, and medical data management. The information provided in this document informs the ExMC Systems Engineering effort to define the functions to be provided by the medical system. In addition, this concept of operations will inform the subsequent systems engineering process of developing technical requirements, system architectures, interfaces, and verification and validation approaches for the medical system. This document supports the closure of ExMC Gap Med01: We do not have a concept of operations for medical care during exploration missions, corresponding to the ExMC-managed human system risk: Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Inflight Medical Conditions. This document is applicable to the ExMC Element Systems Engineering process and may be used for collaboration within the Human Research Program.

Urbina, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS1991

Risk management and expert system development methodology

A risk-based expert-system development methodology has been developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and to serve as a standard for developing expert systems. Expert-system development differs from conventional software development in that the information needed to prepare system requirements for expert systems is not known at the outset of a project and is obtained by knowledge engineering methods. The paper describes the expert-system life cycle, development methodology, and the approach taken in this methodology to manage and reduce the risks in expert system development. Also examined are the risks of using and of not using a methodology, the studies undertaken to validate the provisions of the expert system development methodology, and the results of these validation studies.

Hull, Larry↗

NASA NTRS1997

Risk Analysis and System Trades inthe Mars Sample Return (MSR) Mission

Risk Managenent advocates have long sought to directly influence the early stages of the systems engineering process through a more effective role in system design trade studies. The principal obstacle to this has been the lack of credible ways to represent and quantify mission risk that is, missios return form a probablistic viewpoint-for the project manager and the rest of the design team.

Risk Analysis Mars Sample Return↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Traditional and Innovative Techniques to Solve Technical Challenges

Although NASA has an adequate food system for current missions, research is required to accommodate new requirements for future NASA exploration missions. The Inadequate Food System risk reflects the need to develop requirements and technologies that will enable NASA to provide the crew with a safe, nutritious and acceptable food system while effectively balancing appropriate resources such as mass, volume, and crew time in exploratory missions. As we go deeper into space or spend more time on the International Space Station (ISS), there will be requirements for packaged food to be stored for 3 5 years. New food packaging technologies are needed that have adequate oxygen and water barrier properties to maintain the foods' quality over this extended shelf life. NASA has been unsuccessful in identify packaging materials that meet the necessary requirements when using several traditional routes including literature reviews, workshops, and internal shelf life studies on foods packaged in various packaging materials. Small Business Innovative Research grants were used for accelerating food packaging materials research with limited success. In order to accelerate the process, a theoretical challenge was submitted to InnoCentive resulting in a partial award. A similar food packaging challenge was submitted to Yet2.com and several potential commercial packaging material suppliers were identified that, at least partially, met the requirements. Comparisons and results of these challenges will be discussed.

Perchonok, Michele↗

NASA NTRS2014

AMTD: Update of Engineering Specifications Derived from Science Requirements for Future UVOIR Space Telescopes

The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2024

Findings From 9 Years of Renal Stone Surveillance of U.S. Astronauts

INTRODUCTION: Renal stones are thought to be a risk for spaceflight due to urine chemistry changes, induced by microgravity. Asymptomatic stone can have significant medical and mission impact.For9 years astronauts travelling to the International Space Station (ISS) have received pre-and post-flight renal ultrasound, according to a specialized renal ultrasound protocol, to look for renal calcifications or mineralized renal material (MRM).A new ultrasound machine was put in service halfway through the screening program. METHODS: MRM screening data from pre-and post-flight were compared, to look for changes in MRM burden. Pre-and post-flight scans from 42 subjects were compared. Studies were further stratified by old versus new machine. Measures were modeled using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) as defined by the interaction between pre-to postflight, and machine-to-machine. RESULTS: There was no observed statistical change seen in MRM burden pre-to postflight using the new higher-resolution ultrasound machine. DISCUSSION: The new machine gives more precise measurements and allows us to differentiate MRMs from other bright objects seen on ultrasound, such as small blood vessels. These data imply that spaceflight does not increase the risk of renal stone formation, at least out to the length of ISS missions. This data will be used to update NASA’s Human System Risk Board’s risk tracking documents, in-flight Concept of Operations, and our Clinical Practice Guideline.

K Cortez↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analytical Framework for Rodent/NHP Data Set Utilization to Inform Human CNS Risk Estimation

Objectives Review and inform on tactics to analyze & communicate data from animal research (e.g., rodents, mini-pigs, NHPs, et al) exposed to single and combinations of spaceflight hazards, using NASA’s Human System Risk Board (HSRB) process for the Behavioral Medicine Risk - To quantitatively inform Behavioral Medicine Risk posture - i.e., likelihood (L) and consequence (C) - To help inform estimation of crew health standards for operational task performance (i.e., Fitness For Duty, Space Permissible Exposure Levels, Permissible Operational Limits).

Brain↗

NASA NTRS2013

Overview and Recent Accomplishments of the Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) for Large Aperture UVOIR Space Telescopes Project

Per Astro2010, a new, larger UVO telescope is needed to answer fundamental scientific questions, such as: is there life on Earth-like exoplanets; how galaxies assemble stellar populations; how baryonic matter interacts with intergalactic medium; and how solar systems form and evolve. And, present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVO concept. Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) is a funded SAT project. Our objective is to mature to TRL-6 the critical technologies needed to produce 4-m or larger flight-qualified UVOIR mirrors by 2018 so that a viable mission can be considered by the 2020 Decadal Review. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND result in a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To provide the science community with options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. We have assembled an outstanding team from academia, industry, and government with extensive expertise in astrophysics and exoplanet characterization, and in the design/manufacture of monolithic and segmented space telescopes. One of our key accomplishments is that we have derived engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicle and its inherent mass and volume constraints. We defined and initiated a program to mature 6 key technologies required to fabricate monolithic and segmented space mirrors.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2013

Engineering Specifications derived from Science Requirements

Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) is a multi-year effort to systematically mature to TRL-6 the critical technologies needed to produce 4-m or larger flight-qualified UVOIR mirrors by 2018 so that a viable mission can be considered by the 2020 Decadal Review. This technology must enable missions capable of both general astrophysics & ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. To accomplish our objective, we use a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND result in a high-performance low-cost low-risk system.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2013

Engineering Specification for Large-aperture UVO Space Telescopes Derived from Science Requirements

The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is a three year effort initiated in FY12 to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 to 8 meter UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND result in a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To provide the science community with options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. We have assembled an outstanding team from academia, industry, and government with extensive expertise in astrophysics and exoplanet characterization, and in the design/manufacture of monolithic and segmented space telescopes. A key accomplishment is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints.

Stahl, H. Philip↗