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At least 145 records · Page 8

AI Model Benchmarking for Nonproliferation Applications: Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force Technical Report (Rev. 2)

Steel Thread is a NA-22 venture that seeks to build trustworthy, reliable AI models that can be used in a wide variety of nonproliferation tasks. A key aspect of building these models is developing appropriate benchmarks and evaluation methods, which will enable the venture to identify and adapt models to provide the most value in the nonproliferation domain. Benchmarks must be relevant to key tasks in this domain, such as question answering, information retrieval, document summarization and classification, consensus analysis, and image and data analysis. This report 1) provides an overview of benchmark design, evaluation, and challenges; 2) reviews a variety of open benchmarks, with a focus on language models and tasks; and 3) identifies benchmarks that are most relevant to Steel Thread. This report is intended to serve as a basis for further efforts to classify and evaluate benchmarks and their correlation with success on nonproliferation-specific tasks. The Steel Thread venture has defined benchmarks to be a particular combination of a dataset (or datasets) and a metric (or metrics) conceptualized as representing one or more specific tasks or sets of abilities for a specific modality. It is adopted by a research community as a shared framework for comparing methods.1 It includes 1) Data: Labeled (a designated subset not used for training, which could be all the data), 2) Metric: A way to quantify performance, 3) Task/Ability: What the benchmark is testing, 4) Protocol: A structured and repeatable evaluation process, 5) Baseline/Reference Model: For comparison; could be statistical, rule-based, SME-derived, or another model, and 6) Maintenance Plan: to update with new information over time; important for long-term utility. For further clarity, the definition includes what a benchmark, in this context, is not. It is not a corpus of training data, specific to a model (it is intended to apply to a range of models), a universal evaluation of performance, a guarantee that the ‘top’ model on the leaderboard will be the best fit for every specific use case, an all-encompassing proof of a model’s universal quality, nor is it a one-size-fits-all measure of success. It does not cover every real-world constraint (like operational, ethical, or cost considerations), a systems integration test, or a unit test. This definition was inspired by and resulted from discussions within the Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force. This group was formed to define what we would mean as a benchmark within Steel Thread but persisted as the need to develop a thorough understanding of the large and expanding existing benchmarking space. This technical report is a result of the group’s divide and conquer approach to exploring this space. The release of benchmarks might not be progressing as quickly as model development, but it is moving very fast, as many benchmarks quickly become saturated, when state-of-the-art models score so close to the benchmark’s ceiling that their results are virtually indistinguishable. At that point, the test no longer differentiates between new systems, so researchers usually stop reporting scores as the benchmark no longer informs about improvements from the next generation of models. In the OpenAI announcement of GPT-5, they reported results on six flagship public benchmarks (AIME 2025, SWE-bench Verified, Aider Polyglot, MMMU, HealthBench Hard, GPQA) but the full system-card covers roughly thirty-five separate evaluations, comprising hundreds of test task items in total. There have been some efforts to summarize benchmarks in specific fields, like for text-to-image generation, but these surveys have had a narrow methodology scope. Therefore, a comprehensive survey of all benchmarks or even all benchmarks that could be relevant to Steel Thread is outside of the scope of this report. We chose some specific benchmarks to investigate in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physical and technical basis of Materials Plasma Exposure eXperiment from modeling and Proto-MPEX results *

Abstract The Materials Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) is a steady-state linear plasma device that will address plasma-material interaction (PMI) science and enable testing of fusion reactor-relevant divertor plasma-facing materials. The MPEX source concept consists of a helicon plasma source to generate the plasma, electron cyclotron heating (ECH) for electron heating, and ion cyclotron heating (ICH) for ion heating. The MPEX source plasma is then transported axially to the PMI material target region to test material samples in fusion reactor-relevant divertor conditions. This paper will summarize the physical and technical basis of MPEX. The paper will first define the MPEX parameters and scenarios at the target relevant to PMI science for various fusion reactor-relevant divertor conditions and show plasma transport modeling results to set the MPEX source parameters. Recent experimental and modeling results from Proto-MPEX, a short-pulse experiment to develop the plasma production, heating, and transport physics for MPEX, will be shown. From these results, it will be shown that MPEX can reach its desired scenarios. The MPEX physical and technical basis will also determine important functional requirements for magnetic field, radiofrequency (RF) power, RF frequency, and neutral pressure in the helicon, ECH, ICH, and PMI regions that are required to achieve the desired MPEX scenarios. The necessity for key in-vessel components such as skimmers, limiters, and microwave absorbers will also be highlighted.

Lau, C. (ORCID:0000000285765867)↗

U.S. Department of Energy-National Lab Equity Summit: Grid Planning and Operations (Workshop Report)

This report summarizes the U.S. DOE and national laboratories equity summit that was held on February 5, 2024, and focused on grid planning and operations. The objectives of the summit were to connect DOE and lab researchers working on grid-related equity issues, share information on current and planned grid-related equity projects and initiatives, and inspire and educate participants by hearing from our panelists about solutions and challenges to integrating equity in grid planning and operations. The summit included two panels of industry leaders. The first was a state and community perspectives panel that included representatives from a state public utility commission (Oregon Public Utility Commission), a state energy office (Washington Department of Commerce), a state utility consumer advocate (Connecticut Consumer Counsel), and industry consultants (Elevated Engagement and ArkSpring Consulting). Panelists shared successes they have seen, critical challenges related to equity and grid planning and operations, and other considerations. The second panel addressed utility perspectives and included representatives from two utilities (Commonwealth Edison and Tacoma Power), the National Rural Electric Cooperative (NRECA), and a former utility employee and legal consultant. Panelists discussed the role of the utility concerning equity, the most significant technical and data modeling needs and opportunities, and the role the labs could help advance equity in grid planning and operations. There was also a session on partner organization presentations. Argonne National Laboratory made a short presentation on the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) project they are leading on equity-informed power system planning. NARUC, NASEO, and the Clean Energy States Alliance, as partners of the GMLC project also shared updates on relevant activities and resources. During the summit, there were two rounds of lightning presentations by national labs and DOE highlighting research that addresses equity and grid planning and operations (Tables 5 and 6 and slides in the Appendix). The goal of the lightning rounds was to share information between participants to encourage collaboration and leverage ongoing research at labs and DOE. The summit included two interactive exercises where summit participants shared their perspectives on relevant equity projects and initiatives (Table 2), key challenges regarding equity and grid planning and operations (Table 3), and promising innovations or progress (Table 4). At the end of the session, participants were asked to share essential insights from the event (Table 7) and an action they plan to take as a result of the event. Participants agreed that the event was useful in helping them share and learn from each other. The project team plans to use the information from the summit as a starting point to help inform future research and technical assistance. In 2026, another Equity Summit will be held (virtually or in person) as part of the same project to help raise awareness and disseminate research and resources completed during the project's duration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

First Principles Modeling of Cluster-Based Solid Electrolytes (Final Technical Report)

Given the trend of global warming and the urgent need to transition from fossil fuels to green energy, lithium-ion batteries continue to be an integral part of our lives. Design, development, and understanding of novel solid-state electrolyte materials play the key role for achieving next-generation all-solid-state batteries with high energy and great safety. The current modeling schemes to develop advanced solid electrolytes are focusing on materials in which the building blocks are individual atoms. Our theoretical approach is a paradigm shift in solid-state electrolyte design. Instead of atoms, we focus on clusters as the building blocks and model these solid electrolytes and their interfaces with electrodes, especially Li-metal anode, for their successful implementation in solid-state batteries. The advantage of using the cluster ions to replace elemental ions is that the size, composition, and shape of the former can be tailored to achieve higher ionic conductivity at room temperature, electrochemical stability, and charge transfer across solid-solid interfaces than conventional materials. Specifically, the project includes: (1) Developing cluster-based solid electrolytes, where the halogen components are replaced by cluster ions that mimic the chemistry of halogens but are characterized by additional degrees of freedom, including the size, shape, composition, and motional dynamics under excitation. (2) Providing a fundamental understanding of the ion conduction mechanism in the developed cluster-based solid electrolytes; (3) Modeling the interfacial properties (i.e., structural, chemical, and transport properties) between the cluster-based solid electrolytes and electrodes at the atomic level. For the cluster-based solid electrolytes incompatible with the Li-metal anode or cathode materials, potential candidates for interfacial coatings are identified and studied. (4) Providing a theoretical framework towards optimizing critical parameters of the solid-state electrolytes that guides experimentalists to attain desired cathode-electrode interface for cluster-based solid-state electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market

In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.

Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗

Techno-economic design of a linear Fresnel reflector for industrial process heat

A techno-economic model of a Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) system using a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) has been developed. LFRs can deliver process heat suitable for a range of industries, including food and beverage production. This model uses an adaptive algorithm to calculate the optimal secondary reflector shape given the geometry and optical properties of the rest of the system. A ray-tracing program is used to calculate optical efficiency over a wide range of longitudinal and transversal incidence angles and subsequently evaluate the annual efficiency at a given geographical location. A specific LFR design developed by Hyperlight Energy was modelled, and this industrial partner provided a detailed cost breakdown which was used as the basis of an economic model. Combining the technical and economic data facilitates the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). The influence of a number of parameters on the annual efficiency and LCOH is explored; notable parameters include the absorber height, the number, width, and spacing of the primary mirrors, the aim point, and the secondary reflector shape and width. By identifying an optimal combination of these parameters, we reduce the LCOH of the industry partner’s system design by 9.2%, from 14.4 $\$/MWh_{th}$ to 13.0 $\$/MWh_{th}$. In comparison, the LCOH of a natural gas boiler delivering the same annual quantity of heat is 29 $\$/MWh_{th}$, which indicates that LFRs can be a competitive heat source for industrial processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

pnnl/GeoCLUSTER

GeoCLUSTER is a Python-based web application that provides a collection of interactive methods for streamlining the visualization of the technical and economic modeling of closed-loop geothermal systems.

Buchko, Alex [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

New Predictive Capabilities for Nuclear Weapons in Composite Fires

The prevalence of flammable carbon-based composite airframe materials and their use in high-temperature nuclear weapon re-entry systems requires analysts to address the abnormal thermal environment hazards associated with composite material fires. These fires tend to burn very differently than conventional fuel fires, usually burning less intensely, but much longer. This could lead to challenges in understanding margins in classic safety themes. The technical challenges in modeling the phenomena associated with these new types of fires are considerable, but new models have been developed. Their predictions have been compared with well-documented measurements of a vertical porous burner fire, known as a "wall fire" (a "wall-fire" validation simulation is reflected in the figures below). These measurements were conducted at FMGlobal, a mutual insurance company with a strong fire risk management program, as part of an ongoing collaboration between Sandia and FMGlobal. To date, the "wall-fire" scenario has been set up and initial model assessments with grid refinement studies have been conducted focusing on mesh resolutions suitable for full weapon system simulations. This work will continue with further verification and validation tasks assessing the predictions of the new model. Future work will address specific aspects of the wall models that are lacking in their predictive ability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Tank 49H solids disturbance analysis

Tank 49H serves as the feed tank for the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). Transfers into Tank 49H may disturb any solids that have settled to the bottom of the tank, resulting in feed that may exceed the insoluble solids content limit of 1,200 mg/L of the SWPF Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC). During a transfer into Tank 49H, material that free falls into Tank 49H through a downcomer could potentially disturb any solids on the bottom of the tank and scour or suspend solids from a settled solids layer or turbid region. A previous analysis and report evaluated the potential to disturb solids when transferring into Tank 49H through the B4 riser and recommended a minimum tank level of 120 inches to prevent disturbing any solids in the bottom of the tank. The scope of this task is to perform additional fluid flow analysis to determine whether accounting for disturbed particle settling and particle mixing and dispersion during transfer could allow the minimum liquid level to be reduced below 120 inches. The analysis utilized models from the technical literature to calculate the size and shape of the “plunging jet” as a function of input parameters such as initial velocity, initial jet diameter, elevation of the initial jet, liquid level in the tank, and solids depth. The analysis relied on the M-Star® simulations performed for the previous analysis to provide bounding estimates of the amount of solid particles disturbed and used the MStar® software to calculate the dispersion and mixing of the disturbed solids with other liquid in the tank as the solids are transported to the transfer pump. The analysis showed that with a solid particle size of 5 micron or less, a liquid level of 120 inches should be maintained to prevent significant disturbance of the solid layer at the bottom of Tank 49H.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Solar Energy Development on the FSST Reservation

FSST undertook this project to install PV solar with the goal of reducing retail power consumption at 11 Tribal buildings. A combined total of 318kW has been installed over these sites and power savings are being recorded on a regular basis. The Tribe entered into the project with several specific objectives that made this a unique effort. First of all, all of the systems were installed by Tribal maintenance personnel with some technical support. This model had been developed with previous projects that Nebraska Renewable Energy Systems (NRES) had completed and had shown great success. This approach helped to ensure we met the DOE goal of ‘building capacity’ within the Tribe. There was some skepticism about this model in Flandreau at the onset of discussions, but the excellent final results spoke for themselves! A second objective was to overcome the sore lessons that were learned after FSST invested in early deployment of pole mounted solar systems that were not sturdy enough for SD winds. It was a very courageous decision to move forward again with solar pole mounts (and other types) in this very high wind area. We shall report that the Tribe was fully successful in achieving what they set out to do there. The final major objective was to deploy the PV Solar systems in such a way as to integrate them into their surroundings wherever possible. In some cases the mounting choice was clear, but in several locations, the system was designed to be a functional and aesthetically enhancing part of their surroundings. These elevated systems allowed the PV system to act as a shade structure and create useful space under them as well as making power. FSST had these elevated ground mount systems specially designed for our application by Ironridge and were rated for the tough winds of South Dakota (120MPH+).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling of Particle Thermal Energy Reservoir for Solar Industrial Process Heat (Final Technical Report)

Industrial process heat is a leading source of carbon emissions in the United States. To achieve decarbonization goals and reduce costs, solar industrial process heat (SIPH) systems have been investigated as a means of providing a carbon-free heat supply. Particle thermal energy storage (TES) could supplement solar resources (i.e., concentrating solar thermal and photovoltaics) to enable a high capacity factor (> 90%), carbon-free heat source. Particle TES has been considered due to its low-cost storage medium and capability to support a wide range of temperatures. This report provides technical details of developing a component and system modeling tool for a unique particle TES platform to assist the adoption of SIPH technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Optimization of Fixed Bed and Moving Bed Contactors for CO2 Capture from NGCC Plants Using a Functionalized Metal-Organic Framework

Amine-appended metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have strong potential for post-combustion CO2 capture from NGCC plants. In this work, a specific tetramine-appended MOF, Mg2(dobpdc)(3-4-3) (dobpdc4− = 4,4′-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3′dicarboxylate; 3-4-3 = N,N′bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), is evaluated due to its superior performance compared to other candidate diamine-appended and tetraamine-appended MOFs. Techno-economic optimization is performed to minimize the cost of capture by using the Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty, and Surrogates (FOQUS), which is capable of optimizing systems by using derivative-free optimization solvers where process models are built using numerous modeling platforms. The technical and economic performances of both fixed bed and moving bed processes are compared with state-of-the-art amine-based solvent systems.

Hughes, Ryan↗

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska: Advancing Clean, Resilient, and Sovereign Energy (Summary Report of Communities LEAP Activities)

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska (ITKN) is a federally recognized Native American Tribe located along the Missouri River on the border of northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. There are over 800 residents (Tribal citizens and non-Tribal) who live on the reservation, as well as more than 500 people who visit or work on the reservation on a daily basis. The ITKN faces many energy challenges, including rising service costs and dozens of power outages annually that impact resident well-being and business activities on Tribal lands. Power service issues are made more challenging by the remoteness of the reservation, which is 20 miles from the nearest town. Despite this, the ITKN has a long history of cultural and economic resilience: Local self-reliance, environmental stewardship, respecting the carrying capacity of the land, and strengthening the community are Tribal communities' traditional strengths. Long-term energy goals for the ITKN are centered around achieving energy sovereignty. Priority actions include: (1) Establishing a Tribal Utility Authority (TUA) to promote social welfare and community development.; (2) Deploying renewable community microgrids with ground-mount solar arrays and sustainable energy storage systems to advance energy sovereignty, resilience, and reliability. To advance these goals, the ITKN partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot. From August 2022 to March 2024, the ITKN community coalition collaborated with technical assistance providers at DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories to evaluate TUA planning needs and microgrid deployment scenarios. This final report details the Communities LEAP technical assistance process, models and analysis performed, and results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Northwest Colorado Local Energy Analysis: October 2025 Results

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) provided customized technical assistance to the Northwest Colorado region to assist in developing strategies that facilitate long-term economic benefits through locally driven energy planning and development. The region sought technical assistance to model alternatives energy projects in response to the expected retirement of coal-fired powers plant and associated coal mines by 2030. Northwest Colorado faces a potential economic gap due to the loss of tax revenue, labor income, and jobs within the region due to the impending closure of the Craig and Hayden Power Stations and related mining operations at Trapper and Colowyo mines.

08 HYDROGEN↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis 1.3.5.200

The objective of NREL's Algal Biofuel Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) project is to provide process modeling and analysis to support Algae Program activities, utilizing TEA models to relate key process parameters with overall economics for cultivation, processing, and conversion of algal biomass to fuels and coproducts. By quantifying economic implications of key process metrics, TEA models highlight the technical requirements to achieve future program cost goals as well as enabling a means to track progress towards these goals. This project provides high impact and relevance though generation of critical cost data tied to funded research, with our analyses subsequently exercised by BETO to guide program plans, FOA priorities, and other directives. This includes costs for both algal biomass production and downstream conversion, most notably to support BETO's fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE by 2030. To mitigate a key risk/challenge in constraining our work to academic analyses rooted only in future projections, our work also seeks to provide near-term value to today's algae industry through frequent industry engagement, while maintaining close ties with other BETO collaborators. This project has made numerous accomplishments since the 2019 peer review, including a continued focus on opportunities for value-added products, with related analyses for new pathway opportunities to achieve BETO cost goals and notable State-of-Technology (SOT) improvements over prior cost benchmarks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NuScale Systems Engineering Program Overview and Status

NuScale systems engineering program overview, including technical data management and model-based engineering, product structures, architecture views, and model-based systems engineering. Includes a discussion on technical risk and opportunity management and technical readiness levels, as well as risk-informed performance-based principles and methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hypothesis testing via AI: Generating physically interpretable models of scientific data with machine learning (Full Technical Report)

Deep learning has demonstrated an exceptional ability to solve complex tasks (an engineering success); however, it has done so at the expense of the ability to generate new knowledge (a scientific failure). We propose an alternative framework—entitled Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR)—in which artificial neural networks (NNs) rapidly generate hypotheses about physical relationships among inputs. This framework bypasses the need to interpret an NN altogether, while still leveraging the representational power of deep learning. The resulting models are tractable mathematical expressions, which are inherently and readily human interpretable and can provide insights into underlying physical phenomena. Further, we fold this methodology into the scientific process by allowing the scientist to directly integrate a priori knowledge and beliefs to accelerate learning. We demonstrate this methodology on symbolic regression—the problem of rediscovering underlying expressions describing a dataset—and achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of symbolic regression problems. Further, we generalize our DSR framework to apply to the more general class of symbolic optimization problems, in which one seeks to optimize a sequence of symbols or “tokens” under a black-box reward function. Examples of other symbolic optimization problems include neural architecture search and computational antibody design. Our generalized tool, Deep Symbolic Optimization (DSO), has been demonstrated on the task of learning symbolic control policies for reinforcement learning environments, and has been adopted as an enabling capability for computational antibody design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decision-Model Supported Algal Cultivation Process Enhancement (DMSACPE) (Final Technical Report)

This project was proposed in response to the FY19 Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Topic Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0002029, Area of Interest Subtopic 1 (AOI1): Cultivation Intensification Processes for Algae. The main challenge identified by the FOA was “in translating results between laboratory research systems and larger-scale outdoor (or mass culture) systems. These difficulties limit reliable experimental durations, adequate and representative experimental volumes of material, and results that can be reproduced reliably. By overcoming the challenge in translating results between laboratory and mass cultures, the objective of AOI 1 is to increase the harvest yield, robustness, and quality of algae cultivation for biofuels and bioproducts”. This report marks the final technical deliverable of this project and reviews all the major findings of the research program.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗