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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disruption of the 2022-2023 stratospheric circulation by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

In January 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, injecting an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere that increased the total stratospheric water burden by ~10%. As the initial plume of water vapor spread throughout the stratosphere, radiative heating and cooling anomalies affected the stratospheric circulation altering the climatological mean residual circulation. Here we compare the 1980-2021 MERRA-2 (Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) mean residual circulation climatology to the years 2022-2023 to identify stratospheric circulation changes associated with the anomalous water vapor. The HTHH water vapor is explicitly tracked using the M2-SCREAM (MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapor analysis. Anomalies in temperature, jet location, polar vortex strength and ozone advection in response to the HTHH water vapor anomaly are also documented. These results reveal details of the evolution of the HTHH induced stratospheric circulation anomalies with special emphasis on how these circulation anomalies affected the 2023 ozone hole.

Lawrence Coy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disruption of the 2022-2023 Stratospheric Circulation By the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano

Lawrence Coy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GMAO OSSE Framework in Support of PBL Mission Science

The planetary boundary layer is the bottom layer of the troposphere where most of human activities take place. Atmospheric pollutants are capped by the temperature inversion layer in PBL. The thickness of PBL, ranging from tens of meter to several kilometer, affects pollutant dispersion and air quality. The thickness of PBL typically shows a strong diurnal cycle but it is difficult to model and predict its change because complicated dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved with air-surface exchange of temperature and moisture, convective mixing, surface friction, topography, advection and radiation heating and cooling influence the PBL height. Various parameterization schemes for PBL were developed but the underlying processes of PBL are neither clearly understood nor represented in NWP models and adding large uncertainty into weather and climate predictions. There are no systematic global observations to provide information on thermodynamic structure of PBL and efforts to explore new spaceborne instruments and measurement techniques are growing. This study aims to develop a PBL OSSE framework leveraging existing GMAO’s OSSE system that utilizes GEOS data assimilation and global forecast model (1) to evaluate existing and potential new observation types for the PBL structure analysis and prediction and (2) to test sensitivity of PBL parameterization schemes to PBL forecasts.

Min-Jeong Kim↗

NASA NTRS1996

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

Mote, Philip W.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric CO Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H Salinas↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes, and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric Co Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas↗

NASA NTRS1984

Kelvin-wave-induced anomalous advection and the onset of surface warming in El Nino events

A simple advective model for tropical ocean surface warming can produce anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) fields similar to those of the first several months of the 1982 El Nino. The physics invoked assumes that the existing SST field is advected by anomalous currents to produce the anomalous warming, and that the anomalous currents are those induced subsequent to the passage of downwelling Kelvin wave fronts. Numerical experiments with a fully nonlinear and thermally active ocean model support the physical relevance of the more idealized study. The anomalous horizontal advection model also accounts for the initial SST evolution during the more common type of El Nino event.

Harrison, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Miller, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.

Bill, R. G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Otterman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Low level moisture from VAS

Previous research and current opinion are too pessimistic concerning the capability of defining moisture fields from satellite measurements. The TIROS-N sounder is a close analogue to what will fly on GEOS-D and can be used to investigate the probable capability of VAS. Basically, there are three frequencies applied to sensing moisture in the troposphere. The ability of these three measurements to define the moisture pattern is assessed. It is certainly true that one cannot achieve the detail available with a radiosonde hygristor. Sharp discontinuities cannot be sensed by a passive sounder, especially since the measurement tends to "saturate" with the first moisture layer encountered. However, the satellite measurements demonstrate a high degree of skill in defining the horizontal gradient. Moisture "tongues" and "dry lines" are readily delineated with some, perhaps two layers, of vertical definition. These attributes allow both the calculation of important advective quantities as well as (in concert with the temperature sounding) a gross definition of the vertical stability. The skill is demonstrably commensurate with subsynoptic forecast models and perhaps even to regional scale models.

Hayden, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Atmospheric boundary layer modification in the marginal ice zone

A case study of the Andreas et al. (1984) data on atmospheric boundary layer modification in the marginal ice zone is made. The model is a two-dimensional, multilevel, linear model with turbulence, lateral and vertical advection, and radiation. Good agreement between observed and modeled temperature cross sections is obtained. In contrast to the hypothesis of Andreas et al., the air flow is found to be stable to secondary circulations. Adiabatic lifting and, at long fetches, cloud top longwave cooling, not an air-to-surface heat flux, dominate the cooling of the boundary layer. The accumulation with fetch over the ice of changes in the surface wind field is shown to have a large effect on estimates of the surface wind stress. It is speculated that the Andreas et al. estimates of the drag coefficient over the compact sea ice are too high.

Bennett, Theodore J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulation of the 1979 spring bloom in the Mid-Atlantic Bight - A coupled physical/biological/optical model

A coupled physical/biological/optical model is developed for studies of phytoplankton variability in the spring 1979 Mid-Atlantic Bight, as observed by CZCS imagery. The model incorporates advection, mixing, sinking, growth as a function of light, temperature, nutrient availability, and death as a function of ingestion. It produced chlorophyll concentrations within the first attenuated depth within 1 standard deviation of CZCS imagery on large scale. The primary production estimates obtained using this model were within reasonable agreement with those measured in situ.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sensitivity of calculated odd nitrogen distributions to the diabatic wind fields

This paper compares atmospheric total odd nitrogen and ozone computed with two different advective wind fields, one using climatological averages of ozone and temperature to obtain monthly averaged horizontal and vertical winds and the other using measurements from the LIMS instrument. Calculations using the former data show stronger poleward and downward motion in the winter season compared to those using the LIMS data. This leads to NO(y) mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere that are about 20 percent larger in the polar regions of both hemispheres and about 40 percent higher in the equatorial region for climatological transport fields compared to those derived from LIMS data. Consequently, the NO(y) distributions calculated with the LIMS advective field show worse agreement with the NO(y) values inferred from the LIMS measurements than similar results obtained with the climatological wind field.

Boughner, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Antarctic springtime ozone depletion computed from temperature observations

An observationally based, mechanistic dynamical model is used to simulate the decline of total ozone during September and October for the years 1979 through 1986. Vertical velocities derived from observed stratospheric temperature changes and computed radiative heating rates are used to advect an ozone mixing ratio profile during the Antarctic spring period. An early August 1982 Syowa balloonsonde ozone profile is used to initialize the computations. The model reasonably simulates the September and October changes in total ozone, considering the uncertainties in the observed data and the radiative heating. The simulated decline is found to be very sensitive to the choice of initial ozone profile and to small changes in the radiative heating. The results of this study suggest that the dynamical hypothesis of the Antarctic ozone depletion is both quantitatively credible and consistent with the observed temperature changes.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ice Cloud Formation and Dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Stratospheric water vapor is important not only for its greenhouse forcing, but also because it plays a significant role in stratospheric chemistry. Several recent studies have focused on the potential for dehydration due to ice cloud formation in air rising slowly through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Holton and Gettelman showed that temperature variations associated with horizontal transport of air in the TTL can drive ice cloud formation and dehydration, and Gettelman et al. recently examined the cloud formation and dehydration along kinematic trajectories using simple assumptions about the cloud properties. In this study, a Lagrangian, one-dimensional cloud model has been used to further investigate cloud formation and dehydration as air is transported horizontally and vertically through the TTL. Time-height curtains of temperature are extracted from meteorological analyses. The model tracks the growth, advection, and sedimentation of individual cloud particles. The regional distribution of clouds simulated in the model is comparable to the subvisible cirrus distribution indicated by SAGE II. The simulated cloud properties and cloud frequencies depend strongly on the assumed supersaturation threshold for ice nucleation. The clouds typically do not dehydrate the air along trajectories down to the temperature minimum saturation mixing ratio. Rather the water vapor mixing ratio crossing the tropopause along trajectories is 10-50% larger than the saturation mixing ratio. I will also discuss the impacts of Kelvin waves and gravity waves on cloud properties and dehydration efficiency. These simulations can be used to determine whether observed lower stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios can be explained by dehydration associated with in situ TTL cloud formation alone.

Jensen, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1993

The role of atmospheric heat transport in the seasonal carbon dioxide cycle

We have carried out numerical experiments with a general circulations model (GCM) and energy balance model of the martian atmosphere to define the importance of heat transported to the polar regions in determining the amount of CO2 condensed on the surface during the fall and winter seasons and the amount sublimated during the spring and summer seasons. In so doing, we performed both sensitivity experiments, in which the dust opacity was varied over the full range of its observed values, and annual simulations, in which the dust opacity varied continuously with seasonal data, in accord with measurements taken at the Viking landers. Dust opacity represents the key variable for determining the contribution of atmospheric heat advection to the energy budget in the polar regions. The amount of heat advected to the winter polar regions increases monotonically as the dust opacity at low and middle latitudes increases. However, the increase is sharpest between optical depths of 0 and 1 tends to level off at still higher optical depths. Heat advection is more important at times of CO2 condensation than CO2 sublimation, since the temperature gradients are much steeper in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Because dust opacity is much higher during northern winter than during southern winter, atmospheric heat advection reduces the amount of CO2 that condenses in the north by a much larger factor than it does in the south.

Pollack, James B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China

The slowly varying soil temperature can exert local and nonlocal influences on regional climate system, and may thus provide a critical source of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we identify that soil temperature in May over the key region of Central Asia (42 °N–50 °N, 62 °E–80 °E, KRCA) from Noah, Mosaic, CLM and ERA-interim datasets is closely linked to variations of the surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in summer (June-July-August), with correlation coefficients of regional average detrended time series ranging from 0.42 to 0.54, and all significant at the 99% confidence level for the period of 1979-2018. The possible physical mechanism behind the substantial downstream impacts of soil temperature over Central Asia are explored via diagnostical analysis combined with regional climate model experiments. Warmer soil temperature in May over the KRCA tends to cause positive anomalies of geopotential height in summer over Northeastern China through the Rossby wave propagation, and associated stronger subsidence warming, less cloud cover, more solar radiation reaching the surface, higher planetary boundary layer, and stronger thermal advection at 850 hPa, which provide favorable conditions for warmer surface air temperature particularly in the daytime as well as more hot days. Here this study further reveals that soil temperature over Central Asia in May makes important contribution to prediction of summer surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in terms of regional average time series and spatial patterns. Our findings highlight the previously-unknown substantial role of antecedent soil temperature condition over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗