Analyzing Graph Attention Network latent representations to uncover insights in temporal link prediction
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Abstract not provided.
Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.
Two datadriven predictive approaches, namely, {\em Koopman Operator Theoretic (KOT)-based} model and {\em Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based model}, to enable effective power system state predictions. The KOT-based approaches (Robust DMD, deepDMD) capture the power system evolution as a linear dynamical system on an abstract space. The GNNs model the spatio-temporal correlations using graph convolutional network and are called Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN). These predictive models are trained, tested and compared rigorously based on their predictions of frequencies in the IEEE 68 bus system when subjected to a disturbance. GridSTAGE framework developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is leveraged to generate multiple datasets (in the form of PMU measurements) for training and testing by strategically creating load changes across the spatial locations of the network
Kinetics-informed neural networks improve fit quality for multi-pulse and noisy temporal analysis of products datasets.
This poster details an NREL-developed deep learning approach for predicting the demand for trips using transportation network company services, taking into consideration variables such as time of day, weather, and zip code.
We have trained a fully convolutional spatio-temporal model for fast and accurate representation learning in the challenging exemplar application area of fusion energy plasma science. The onset of major disruptions is a critically important fusion energy science issue that must be resolved for advanced tokamak plasmas such as the $25B burning plasma international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) experiment. While a variety of statistical methods have been used to address the problem of tokamak disruption prediction and control, recent approaches based on deep learning have proven particularly compelling. In the present paper, we introduce further improvements to the fusion recurrent neural network (FRNN) software suite, which delivered cross-machine disruption predictions with unprecedented accuracy using a large database of experimental signals from two major tokamaks. Up to now, FRNN was based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) variant of recurrent neural networks to leverage the temporal information in the data. Here, we implement and apply the "temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)" architecture to the time-dependent input signals. Furthermore, this allows highly optimized convolution operations to carry the majority of the computational load of training, thus enabling a reduction in training time, and the effective use of high-performance computing resources for hyperparameter tuning. At the same time, the TCN-based architecture achieves better predictive performance when compared with the LSTM architecture for various tasks for a representative fusion database.
How the interactions between cortices through a specific white matter pathway change during cognitive processing in patients with epilepsy remains unclear. Here, we used surface-based structural connectivity analysis to examine the change in structural connectivity with Broca’s area/the right Broca’s homologue in the lateral temporal and inferior parietal cortices through the arcuate fasciculus (AF) in 17 patients with left temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) compared with 17 healthy controls. Then, we investigated its functional relevance to the changes in task-related responses and task-modulated functional connectivity with Broca’s area/the right Broca’s homologue during a semantic classification task of a single word. The structural connectivity through the AF pathway and task-modulated functional connectivity with Broca’s area decreased in the left midtemporal cortex. Furthermore, task-related response decreased in the left mid temporal cortex that overlapped with the region showing a decrease in the structural connectivity. In contrast, the region showing an increase in the structural connectivity through the AF overlapped with the regions showing an increase in task-modulated functional connectivity in the left inferior parietal cortex. These structural and functional changes in the overlapping regions were correlated. The results suggest that the change in the structural connectivity through the left frontal–temporal AF pathway underlies the altered functional networks between the frontal and temporal cortices during the language-related processing in patients with left TLE. The left frontal–parietal AF pathway might be employed to connect anterior and posterior brain regions during language processing and compensate for the compromised left frontal–temporal AF pathway.
The ability to simultaneously move in the world and maintain stable visual perception depends critically on the contribution of vestibulo-ocular reflexes (VORs) to gaze stabilization. It is traditionally believed that semicircular canal signals drive compensatory responses to rotational head disturbances (rotational VOR), whereas otolith signals compensate for translational movements [translational VOR (TVOR)]. However, a sensory ambiguity exists because otolith afferents are activated similarly during head translations and reorientations relative to gravity (i.e., tilts). Extra-otolith cues are, therefore, necessary to ensure that dynamic head tilts do not elicit a TVOR. To investigate how extra-otolith signals contribute, we characterized the temporal and viewing distance-dependent properties of a TVOR elicited in the absence of a lateral acceleration stimulus to the otoliths during combined translational/rotational motion. We show that, in addition to otolith signals, angular head position signals derived by integrating sensory canal information drive the TVOR. A physiological basis for these results is proposed in a model with two distinct integration steps. Upstream of the well known oculomotor velocity-to-position neural integrator, the model incorporates a separate integration element that could represent the "velocity storage integrator," whose functional role in the oculomotor system has so far remained controversial. We propose that a key functional purpose of the velocity storage network is to temporally integrate semicircular canal signals, so that they may be used to extract translation information from ambiguous otolith afferent signals in the natural and functionally relevant bandwidth of head movements.
Network reconfiguration has long been employed as a strategic approach to minimize power distribution system losses and effectively regulate voltage levels. Tap-changing voltage regulators are also critical for controlling bus voltages, especially in accommodating the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) with intermittent outputs. This paper introduces novel methodologies to address the challenges of dynamic reconfiguration and optimal tap setting in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. We propose an approximated mixed-integer quadratically constrained program (MIQCP) to model dynamic reconfiguration, along with a pioneering formulation for voltage regulator (VR) tap-setting based on Special Ordered Set type 1 (SOS1). To mitigate computational complexity, we propose a physics-informed spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) with an integrated link classifier. The proposed approach enables efficient solution generation by fixing specific variables in the MIQCP instance and solving the simplified sub-MIP using an MIP solver. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior prediction accuracy of our STGCN model compared to baseline neural network models, resulting in reduced DER curtailment and voltage deviation with shorter computation time.
Studies suggest that tau deposition starts in the anterolateral entorhinal cortex (EC) with normal aging, and that the presence of β-amyloid (Aβ) facilitates its spread to neocortex, which may reflect the beginning of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Functional connectivity between the anterolateral EC and the anterior-temporal (AT) memory network appears to drive higher tau deposition in AT than in the posterior-medial (PM) memory network. Here, we investigated whether this differential vulnerability to tau deposition may predict different cognitive consequences of EC, AT, and PM tau. Using 18 F-flortaucipir (FTP) and 11 C-Pittsburgh compound-B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, we measured tau and Aβ in 124 cognitively normal human older adults (74 females, 50 males) followed for an average of 2.8 years for prospective cognition. We found that higher FTP in all three regions was individually related to faster memory decline, and that the effects of AT and PM FTP, but not EC, were driven by Aβ+ individuals. Moreover, when we included all three FTP measures competitively in the same model, only AT FTP significantly predicted memory decline. Our data support a model whereby tau, facilitated by Aβ, transits from EC to cortical regions that are most closely associated with the anterolateral EC, which specifically affects memory in the initial stage of AD. Memory also appears to be affected by EC tau in the absence of Aβ, which may be less clinically consequential. These findings may provide clarification of differences between normal aging and AD, and elucidate the transition between the two stages. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tau and β-amyloid (Aβ) are hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease (AD) but are also found in cognitively normal people. It is unclear whether, and how, this early deposition of tau and Aβ may affect cognition in normal aging and the asymptomatic stage of AD. We show that tau deposition in the entorhinal cortex (EC), which is common in advanced age, predicts memory decline in older adults independent of Aβ, likely reflecting normal, age-related memory loss. In contrast, tau in anterior-temporal (AT) regions is most predictive of memory decline in Aβ+ individuals. These data support the idea that tau preferentially spreads to specific cortical regions, likely through functional connections, which plays a primary role in memory decline in the early stage of AD.
4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.
ABSTRACT As gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers become more sensitive and probe ever more distant reaches, the number of detected binary neutron star mergers will increase. However, detecting more events farther away with GWs does not guarantee corresponding increase in the number of electromagnetic counterparts of these events. Current and upcoming wide-field surveys that participate in GW follow-up operations will have to contend with distinguishing the kilonova (KN) from the ever increasing number of transients they detect, many of which will be consistent with the GW sky-localization. We have developed a novel tool based on a temporal convolutional neural network architecture, trained on sparse early-time photometry and contextual information for Electromagnetic Counterpart Identification (El-CID). The overarching goal for El-CID is to slice through list of new transient candidates that are consistent with the GW sky localization, and determine which sources are consistent with KNe, allowing limited target-of-opportunity resources to be used judiciously. In addition to verifying the performance of our algorithm on an extensive testing sample, we validate it on AT2017gfo – the only EM counterpart of a binary neutron star merger discovered to date – and AT2019npv – a supernova that was initially suspected as a counterpart of the GW event, GW190814, but was later ruled out after further analysis.
Neuroevolution has had significant success over recent years, but there has been relatively little work applying neuroevolution approaches to spiking neural networks (SNNs). SNNs are a type of neural network that includes temporal processing component, are not easily trained using other methods, and can be deployed into energy-efficient neuromorphic hardware. In this work, we investigate two evolutionary approaches for training SNNs. We explore the impact of the hyperparameters of the evolutionary approaches, including tournament size, population size, and representation type, on the performance of the algorithms. We present a multi-objective Bayesian-based hyperparameter optimization approach to tune the hyperparameters to produce the most accurate and smallest SNNs. We show that the hyperparameters can significantly affect the performance of these algorithms. We also perform sensitivity analysis and demonstrate that every hyperparameter value has the potential to perform well, assuming other hyperparameter values are set correctly.
Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.
PV Performance Loss Rate Estimation using Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks PVplr-stGNN is a Python 3 package developed by the SDLE Research Center at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland OH. This repository contains the full source PVplr-stGNN package. The package contains the PV-stGAE for missingness data detection and imputation and PV-DynGNN for PLR estimation.
Remotely sensed snow cover observations give an opportunity to improve operational snow melt and stream flow forecasting in remote regions. This is particularly true in Alaska, where remote basins and a spatially and temporally sparse gaging network plague efforts to understand and forecast the hydrology of subarctic boreal basins and where climate change is leading to rapid shifts in basin function. In this study,the operational framework employed by the United States (US) National Weather Service, including the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, is adapted to integrate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remotely sensed observations of fractional snow cover area (fSCA) to determine if these data improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska river basins. Two versions of MODIS fSCA are tested against a base case extent of snow cover derived by aerial depletion curves: the MODIS 10A1(MOD10A1) and the MODIS Snow Cover Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) product over the period 2000–2010. Observed runoff is compared to simulated runoff to calibrate both iterations of the model. MODIS-forced simulations haveimproved snow depletion timing compared with snow telemetry sites in the basins, with discernable increases in skill for the streamflow simulations.The MODSCAG fSCA version provides moderate increases in skill but is similar to the MOD10A1 results. The basins with the largest improvement in streamflow simulations have the sparsest streamflow observations.Considering the numerous low-quality gages (discontinuous, short, or unreliable) and ungauged systems throughout the high-latitude regions of the globe, this result is valuable and indicates the utility of the MODIS fSCAdata in these regions. Additionally, while improvements in predicted discharge values are subtle, the snow model better represents the physical conditions of the snow pack and therefore provides more robust simulations,which are consistent with the US National Weather Service's move toward a physically based National Water Model. Physically based models may also be more capable of adapting to changing climates than statistical models corrected to past regimes. This work provides direction for both the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center and other forecast centers across the US to implement remote-sensing observations within their operational framework, to refine the representation of snow, and to improve streamflow forecasting skill in basins with few or poor-quality observations.