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NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2‐km northwestern‐hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra‐tropical cyclones with intense non‐convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified‐WRF (NU‐WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real‐time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU‐WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Survivability Versus Time

Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

Probability Distribution Function↗

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗

NASA's Hybrid Reality Lab: One Giant Leap for Full Dive

This presentation demonstrates how NASA is using consumer VR headsets, game engine technology and NVIDIA's GPUs to create highly immersive future training systems augmented with extremely realistic haptic feedback, sound, additional sensory information, and how these can be used to improve the engineering workflow. Include in this presentation is an environment simulation of the ISS, where users can interact with virtual objects, handrails, and tracked physical objects while inside VR, integration of consumer VR headsets with the Active Response Gravity Offload System, and a space habitat architectural evaluation tool. Attendees will learn how the best elements of real and virtual worlds can be combined into a hybrid reality environment with tangible engineering and scientific applications.

Delgado, Francisco J.↗

Collection Evaluation and Evolution

We will review metadata evaluation tools and share results from our most recent CMR analysis. We will demonstrate results using Google spreadsheets and present new results in terms of number of records that include specific content. We will show evolution of UMM-compliance over time and also show results of comparing various CMR collections (NASA, non-NASA, and SciOps).

Evauation↗

NASA Simulation Capabilities

This presentation provides a high-level overview of NASA's Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) with a high-level description of the system's inputs and outputs. This presentation is designed to support the joint simulations that NASA and the Chinese Aeronautical Establishment (CAE) will conduct under an existing Memorandum of Understanding.

ICD↗

Strategic Design of Long-Haul and Oceanic Aircraft Trajectories in Aviation Operations

Long-Haul Aircraft consume most of their fuel during the cruise phase of flight. The inefficiency in cruise flights compared to efficient routes varies is around 3 to 4. The efficiency of oceanic flights is low due to limited navigational and communication equipment, congestion and airspace restrictions. The availability of Automated Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and other improvements provides opportunity for better strategic planning of trajectories. Transatlantic flights between US and Europe constitute one of the busiest oceanic airspace regions in the world. This talk examines the benefits of a wind-optimal trajectory concept with a strategic de-confliction component compared to the current flight planning using the North Atlantic Tracks. The analysis is based on air traffic between US and Europe during July 2012. The potential fuel savings are in the range of (420-970) kg per flight for a Boeing 767-300, the most widely used aircraft between the city-pairs in this study. The talk also describes a global simulation of aviation operations combining flight plans and real air traffic data with historical commercial city-pair aircraft type and schedule data and global atmospheric data. The resulting capability extends the simulation and optimization functions of NASAs Future Air Traffic Management Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to global scale. This new capability is used to characterize the evolution of global air traffic, analyze fuel savings and seasonal variations in the long-haul wind-optimal traffic patterns in six major regions of the world.

strategic trajectory design↗

A New Statistical Estimate of the Radar Coverage of the Low Earth Orbit Debris Environment

For over three decades, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar, Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), and Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radar assets to collect data on the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment. Each radar, with its unique beamwidth, altitude and inclination coverage, and limiting size threshold, operates in a beam park mode to statistically sample the orbital debris population in LEO. Provided that these assets are shared with other users, the orbital debris data collection is not continuous; rather, intermittent data collects are acquired and sent to the NASA ODPO. To understand the sampling process conducted by each radar over time and any related observational biases, a Statistical Confirmation of Radar Uniformity or Bias (SCRUB) code has been implemented to model the coverage of these assets for informing future operations, as well as usage of the data collected from these ground-based sensors. For this analysis, Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN) is used as a metric to measure statistical coverage. A complete survey of the LEO environment is understood to be measurements that sufficiently sample all values of RAAN for each altitude-inclination pair visible from the radar asset. Regions of incompleteness or statistical bias can help inform future observation campaigns. The SCRUB tool evaluates the coverage of the LEO environment, not by examining individual objects that may pass through a sensor’s field of view (FOV), but by determining which orbit planes pass through the FOV. Once a pointing geometry for a radar site, observation time, and range extent are configured by the user, SCRUB computes the inclinations and altitudes that are visible by the sensor. For each inclination-altitude pair, there is a distinct pair of possible RAAN values, corresponding to the ascending and descending orbit passing through that point in the sensor cone. Repeating this process for all points in the beam, and for multiple time periods during an observation window, creates a matrix of all inclination-altitude-RAAN combinations that are visible during a sensor run. This process can then be repeated for all observations within a year (for an annual survey), propagating all the RAAN values to a common epoch, typically the start of a calendar year, and combining the observations to assemble a full estimate of the RAAN coverage of the LEO environment. This RAAN coverage can then be analyzed for uniformity of sampling, within a certain inclination-altitude pair, or between larger regions of the space environment. This paper provides a general overview of the radar assets utilized by ODPO, typical analysis data products assuming circular orbits, and a discussion of the algorithms that feed between modeling and measurement operations. Following the description of the algorithm, estimates of coverage using HUSIR radar data collected from multiple years are developed and compared.

Chris L Ostrom↗

Development of a Terrain Mapping/Crater Evolution Measurement using Diffractive Optical Elements

When landing on the moon, understanding the interaction of the engine exhaust plume with the lunar surface is critical for the success of the descent and landing flight phases. Two evaluation tools currently used are computational simulations and ground test measurements. Computational simulations require experimental measurements for comparison/validation, but ground test measurements cannot accurately emulate all aspects of an actual lunar landing; flight tests remain the only method of obtaining fully representative data. A terrain mapping/crater evolution measurement system was developed for potential inclusion on a future lander mission. This system uses two stereo cameras viewing a laser dot grid pattern projected on the ground, where the grid is created by shining a laser through one or two diffractive optical elements. CAD simulations of the stereo imaging system are first used to validate the proposed design. Laboratory testing of the system using both a large-scale fixed-geometry crater and a small-scale evolving-geometry crater validate the use of the system for terrain mapping measurements, and for its potential inclusion on a future lander mission.

Joshua M Weisberger↗

NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change Mission Study

The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine 2017 Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications identified geodetic measurements of surface deformation and related change as one of the top five “observables” to be prioritized in NASA’s future program. In response, NASA commissioned a multi-center Surface Deformation and Change(SDC) team to perform a five year study of mission architectures that would support SDC observables and provide the most value to the diverse science and applications communities it serves. The study is being conducted in phases, in which the science and applications capabilities identified in the Decadal Survey are refined, candidate architectures and associated technologies to support these needs are identified, architectures are assessed against a science value framework specific to SDC, and recommendations to NASA are made. Ultimately, NASA will decide which amongst these recommendations will proceed to mission formulation. As synthetic aperture radar (SAR) was identified as the prime sensor technology to satisfy SDC observational needs, a key component of the SDC study is to assess the current state of the art in SAR sensor and supporting technology. The number of SAR systems, both civil and commercial, is growing rapidly, requiring that mission architectures not only consider technology, but availability of data from other missions, possible partnerships or collaborations, and even data purchase. The mechanism for assessment involves development of an end-to-end science performance evaluation tool for multi-satellite con-stellations, which feeds into a science value framework that con-siders science performance, technological programmatic risks, and cost. This paper will present an overview of the ongoing study including the candidate architectures and the technology road map needed to achieve the objectives of the mission.

Stephen Horst↗

NASA's Surface Deformation and Change Mission Study

The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine 2017 Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications identified geodetic measurements of surface deformation and related change as one of the top five "observables" to be prioritized in NASA's program going forward. In response, NASA commissioned a multi-center Surface Deformation and Change (SDC) team to perform a five year study of mission architectures that would support SDC observables and provide the most value to the diverse science and applications communities it serves. The study is being conducted in phases, in which the science and applications capabilities identified in the Decadal Survey are interpreted and refined, candidate mission architectures and associated technologies to support these needs are identified, architectures are assessed against a science value framework specific to SDC, and recommendations to NASA are made. Ultimately, NASA will decide which amongst these recommendations will proceed to mission formulation. As synthetic aperture radar (SAR) was identified as the prime sensor technology to satisfy SDC observational needs, a key component of the SDC study is to assess the current state of the art in SAR sensor and spacecraft systems and components. The number of SAR systems, both civil and commercial, is growing rapidly, requiring that mission architectures not only consider technology, but availability of data from other missions, possible partnerships or collaborations, and even data purchase. The mechanism for assessment involves development of an end-to-end science performance evaluation tool for multi-satellite constellations, which feeds into a science value framework that considers science performance, technological programmatic risks, and cost. This paper will present an overview of the ongoing study including the architectures under consideration and the technology road map needed to achieve the objectives of the mission.

Rosen, Paul↗

Development of a Terrain Mapping/Crater Evolution Measurement using Diffractive Optical Elements

When landing on the moon, understanding the interaction of the engine exhaust plume with the lunar surface is critical for the success of the descent and landing flight phases. Two evaluation tools currently used are computational simulations and ground test measurements. Computational simulations require experimental measurements for comparison/validation, but ground test measurements cannot accurately emulate all aspects of an actual lunar landing; flight tests remain the only method of obtaining fully representative data. A terrain mapping/crater evolution measurement system was developed for potential inclusion on a future lander mission. This system uses two stereo cameras viewing a laser dot grid pattern projected on the ground, where the grid is created by shining a laser through one or two diffractive optical elements. CAD simulations of the stereo imaging system are first used to validate the proposed design. Laboratory testing of the system using both a large-scale fixed-geometry crater and a small-scale evolving-geometry crater validate the use of the system for terrain mapping measurements. High-speed, front-illumination shadow particle tracking of particles ejected from the evolving geometry crater is also performed, demonstrating another diagnostic that can be used to further the understanding of plume-surface interactions.

Joshua M Weisberger↗

Lunar Development & Test Facility, JSC B351

In anticipation of extended operations on the lunar sur-face, JSC Building B351 has been prepared to meet test needs to mature technologies that extract resources from lunar regolith, handle lunar regolith or must perform in a dusty lunar environment. Domains such as In-Situ Re-source Utilization (ISRU), dust mitigation, power generation and distribution, robotics and surface tools will all require testing with lunar regolith/simulants to demonstrate flight readiness. The Lunar Development and Test Facility (LDTF) houses environmental test capabilities, including lunar simulants, geared toward advancing Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of these lunar surface technologies. Seen as an agency need to enable and demonstrate new technologies, a portion of the facility capability was developed under the “Dirty Lunar Surface Simulation “project in FY2020, funded by the NASA Game Changing Development program. Some current uses include testing of an oxygen extraction from lunar regolith test, a spacesuit cleaning tool evaluation, and a study to measure dust effects on space radiators (thermal management).

Michael Reddington↗

Computational Techniques to Generate Space Launch System Aerodynamic Databases

This document describes the reasoning and trade studies used to evaluate tools for constructing the aerodynamic lineload databases for the liftoff and transition phases of flight for the Space Launch System. Three computational fluid dynamics codes (USM3D, FUN3D, Kestrel) were investigated with various turbulence models, as well as detached eddy simulation variants for the launch vehicle in free air and in proximity to the tower. Decisions were made mostly based on results from brief developmental studies performed in response to specific, unforeseen challenges that were encountered in the analysis of a given configuration. The need to develop databases in a timely manner, as well as accurately capture the expected leeward-wake flowfield characteristics, led to the selection of the Kestrel flow solver with its delayed detached eddy simulation method, the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, and the adaptive mesh refinement capability in the off-body Cartesian grid region.

Karen A. Deere↗

Standards for evaluating expert system tools

A brief survey of the literature and proposal for a standard methodology for evaluating expert system building tools are discribed. Criteria for expert systems environmental factors and expert systems tool features are also discussed.

Beach, Sharon S.↗

Evaluation of reliability modeling tools for advanced fault tolerant systems

The Computer Aided Reliability Estimation (CARE III) and Automated Reliability Interactice Estimation System (ARIES 82) reliability tools for application to advanced fault tolerance aerospace systems were evaluated. To determine reliability modeling requirements, the evaluation focused on the Draper Laboratories' Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS) architecture as an example architecture for fault tolerance aerospace systems. Advantages and limitations were identified for each reliability evaluation tool. The CARE III program was designed primarily for analyzing ultrareliable flight control systems. The ARIES 82 program's primary use was to support university research and teaching. Both CARE III and ARIES 82 were not suited for determining the reliability of complex nodal networks of the type used to interconnect processing sites in the AIPS architecture. It was concluded that ARIES was not suitable for modeling advanced fault tolerant systems. It was further concluded that subject to some limitations (the difficulty in modeling systems with unpowered spare modules, systems where equipment maintenance must be considered, systems where failure depends on the sequence in which faults occurred, and systems where multiple faults greater than a double near coincident faults must be considered), CARE III is best suited for evaluating the reliability of advanced tolerant systems for air transport.

Baker, Robert↗

Development of Experimental and Computational Aeroacoustic Tools for Advanced Liner Evaluation

Acoustic liners in aircraft engine nacelles suppress radiated noise. Therefore, as air travel increases, increasingly sophisticated tools are needed to maximize noise suppression. During the last 30 years, NASA has invested significant effort in development of experimental and computational acoustic liner evaluation tools. The Curved Duct Test Rig is a 152-mm by 381- mm curved duct that supports liner evaluation at Mach numbers up to 0.3 and source SPLs up to 140 dB, in the presence of user-selected modes. The Grazing Flow Impedance Tube is a 51- mm by 63-mm duct currently being fabricated to operate at Mach numbers up to 0.6 with source SPLs up to at least 140 dB, and will replace the existing 51-mm by 51-mm duct. Together, these test rigs allow evaluation of advanced acoustic liners over a range of conditions representative of those observed in aircraft engine nacelles. Data acquired with these test ducts are processed using three aeroacoustic propagation codes. Two are based on finite element solutions to convected Helmholtz and linearized Euler equations. The third is based on a parabolic approximation to the convected Helmholtz equation. The current status of these computational tools and their associated usage with the Langley test rigs is provided.

Jones, Michael G.↗