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At least 145 records · Page 8

Potential of GPM IMERG Precipitation Estimates to Monitor Natural Disaster Triggers in Urban Areas: the Case of Rio deJaneiro, Brazil

Extreme rainfall can be a catastrophic trigger for natural disaster events at urban scales. However, there remains large uncertainties as to how satellite precipitation can identify these triggers at a city scale. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of satellite-based rainfall estimates to monitor natural disaster triggers in urban areas. Rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are evaluated over the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where urban floods and landslides occur periodically as a result of extreme rainfall events. Two rainfall products derived from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), the IMERG Early and IMERG Final products, are integrated into the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model in order to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of two key hydrometeorological disaster triggers across the city over the wet seasons during 2001-2019. Here, total runoff (TR) and rootzone soil moisture (RZSM) are considered as flood and landslide triggers, respectively. Ground-based observations at 33 pluviometric stations are interpolated, and the resulting rainfall fields are used in an in-situ precipitation-based simulation, considered as the reference for evaluating the IMERG-driven simulations. The evaluation is performed during the wet seasons (November-April), when average rainfall over the city is 4.4mm/day. Results show that IMERG products show low spatial variability at the city scale, generally overestimate rainfall rates by 12-35%, and impacts on TR and RZSM vary spatially mostly as a function of land cover and soil types. Results based on statistical and categorical metrics show that IMERG skill in detecting extreme events is moderate, with IMERG Final performing slightly better for most metrics. By analyzing two recent storms, we observe that IMERG detects mostly hourly extreme events, but underestimates rainfall rates, resulting in underestimated TR and RZSM. An evaluation of normalized time series using percentiles shows that both satellite products have significantly improved skill in detecting extreme events when compared to the evaluation using absolute values, indicating that IMERG precipitation could be potentially used as a predictor for natural disasters in urban areas.

IMERG↗

Ratemeter

An instantaneous reading tachometer in which reoccurring events to be measured in rate, trigger a threestate timing generator in which the first two states are of fixed duration and the third state is of variable duration is described. An electrical decay circuit is set to a reference level by the second state and the third state causes this reference level to decay until the reoccurrence of an event. This triggers a new first state which in turn triggers a sample and hold circuit to hold the decayed level. The decayed level is amplified and provided as an output indicative of the instantaneous rate of occurence of the last two successive events.

Currie, J. R.↗

Relative Time-scale for Channeling Events Within Chaotic Terrains, Margaritifer Sinus, Mars

A relative time scale for ordering channel and chaos forming events was constructed for areas within the Margaritifer Sinus region of Mars. Transection and superposition relationships of channels, chaotic terrain, and the surfaces surrounding them were used to create the relative time scale; crater density studies were not used. Channels and chaos in contact with one another were treated as systems. These systems were in turn treated both separately (in order to understand internal relationships) and as members of the suite of Martian erosional forms (in order to produce a combined, master time scale). Channeling events associated with chaotic terrain development occurred over an extended geomorphic period. The channels can be divided into three convenient groups: those that pre-date intercrater plains development post-plains, pre-chasma systems; and those associated with the development of the Vallis Marineris chasmata. No correlations with cyclic climatic changes, major geologic events in other regions on Mars, or triggering phenomena (for example, specific impact events) were found.

Janke, D.↗

A Model for Magnetically Coupled Sympathetic Eruptions

Sympathetic eruptions on the Sun have been observed for several decades, but the mechanisms by which one eruption can trigger another remain poorly understood. We present a three-dimenSional MHD simulation that suggests two possible magnetic trigger mechanisms for sympathetic eruptions. We consider a configuration that contains two coronal flux ropes located within a pseudo-streamer and one rope located next to it. A sequence of eruptions is initiated by triggering the eruption of the flux rope next to the streamer. The expansion of the rope leads to two consecutive reconnection events, each of which triggers the eruption of a flux rope by removing a sufficient amount of overlying flux. The simulation qualitatively reproduces important aspects of the global sympathetic event on 2010 August 1 and provides a scenario for the so-called twin filament eruptions. The suggested mechanisms are also applicable for sympathetic eruptions occurring in other magnetic configurations.

Torok, T.↗

LIGO-VIRGO Triggered Follow-Up with NASA High Energy Photon Survey Missions

We discuss the proposed use of LIGO-VIRGO S6 triggers from comparatively loud events to search for both prompt and afterglow EM counterparts with RXTE, SWIFT and FERMI. Using a 2 or 3-fold coincident trigger from the two LIGO and one VIRGO detectors to provide sky position information, we can search the data from these missions within a limited time window and a constrained portion of their respective FOVs, allowing us to look at a level below the threshold normally used to publicly indicate an event. Since we propose to use these missions in their survey mode, no re-pointing of the missions is envisioned. The search for a coincidence between the data from LIGO-VIRGO and the EM survey missions can then be analyzed off-line; if a coincident EM signal is found it would have a significant effect in establishing the validity of the GW trigger. We discuss some relevant aspects of the NASA missions and give some preliminary estimates of thresholds and coincident background rates.

Camp, Jordan↗

The cytoskeleton and gravitropism in higher plants

The cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying the gravitropic response of plants have continued to elude plant biologists despite more than a century of research. Lately there has been increased attention on the role of the cytoskeleton in plant gravitropism, but several controversies and major gaps in our understanding of cytoskeletal involvement in gravitropism remain. A major question in the study of plant gravitropism is how the cytoskeleton mediates early sensing and signal transduction events in plants. Much has been made of the actin cytoskeleton as the cellular structure that sedimenting amyloplasts impinge upon to trigger the downstream signaling events leading to the bending response. There is also strong molecular and biochemical evidence that the transport of auxin, an important player in gravitropism, is regulated by actin. Organizational changes in microtubules during the growth response phase of gravitropism have also been well documented, but the significance of such reorientations in controlling differential cellular growth is unclear. Studies employing pharmacological approaches to dissect cytoskeletal involvement in gravitropism have led to conflicting results and therefore need to be interpreted with caution. Despite the current controversies, the revolutionary advances in molecular, biochemical, and cell biological techniques have opened up several possibilities for further research into this difficult area. The myriad proteins associated with the plant cytoskeleton that are being rapidly characterized provide a rich assortment of candidate regulators that could be targets of the gravity signal transduction chain. Cytoskeletal and ion imaging in real time combined with mutant analysis promises to provide a fresh start into this controversial area of research.

Review↗

Role of sudden commencements in triggering magnetospheric substorms

Sudden commencement events are examined in terms of available auroral-zone and low-latitude magnetic field, data, interplanetary plasma and magnetic field data, and magnetospheric electron flux and magnetic field data from the geostationary satellite ATS 1.

Newell, R. E.↗

The MJO-ENSO Relationship: A Re-assessment

Noting the similarities among the spatial patterns of outgoing longwave radiation among MJO and ENSO, Lau and Chan speculated a possible relationship between the two phenomena. This speculation received a substantial boost in credibility after the 1997-98 El Nino, when MJO activities were found to be substantially enhanced prior to the onset of the warm phase, and clear signals of oceanic Kelvin waves forced by MJO induced anomalous surface wind were detected as possible triggers of ENSO. Yet statistical and modeling studies have so far yielded either nil or at best, very weak relationship between MJO activities and SST. Recently Kessler suggested using an MJO index which includes convective variability in the equatorial central Pacific lead to a more robust MJO-ENSO relationship. Clearly, while MJO might have been instrumental in triggering some El Nino, there are other events that can occur without any MJO trigger.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Crew Survivability After a Rapid Cabin Depressurization Event

Anecdotal evidence acquired through historic failure investigations involving rapid cabin decompression (e.g. Challenger, Columbia and Soyuz 11) show that full evacuation of the cabin atmosphere may occur within seconds. During such an event, the delta-pressure between the sealed suit ventilation system and the cabin will rise at the rate of the cabin depressurization; potentially at a rate exceeding the capability of the suit relief valve. It is possible that permanent damage to the suit pressure enclosure and ventilation loop components may occur as the integrated system may be subjected to delta pressures in excess of the design to pressures. Additionally, as the total pressure of the suit ventilation system decreases, so does the oxygen available to the crew. The crew may be subjected to a temporary incapacitating, but non-lethal, hypoxic environment. It is expected that the suit will maintain a survivable atmosphere on the crew until the vehicle pressure control system recovers or the cabin has otherwise attained a habitable environment. A common finding from the aforementioned reports indicates that the crew would have had a better chance at surviving the event had they been in a protective configuration, that is, in a survival suit. Making use of these lessons learned, the Constellation Program implemented a suit loop in the spacecraft design and required that the crew be in a protective configuration, that is suited with gloves on and visors down, during dynamic phases of flight that pose the greatest risk for a rapid and uncontrolled cabin depressurization event: ascent, entry, and docking. This paper details the evaluation performed to derive suit pressure garment and ventilation system performance parameters that would lead to the highest probability of crew survivability after an uncontrolled crew cabin depressurization event while remaining in the realm of practicality for suit design. This evaluation involved: (1) assessment of stakeholder expectations to validate the functionality being imposed; (2) review/refinement of concept of operations to establish the potential triggers for such an event and define the response of the spacecraft and suit ventilation loop pressure control systems; and (3) assessment of system capabilities with respect to structural capability and pressure control. 1 Crew and Thermal Systems Division, NASA Johnson Space Center, Mail Code: AES29, 2101 NASA Parkway, Houston,

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

Crew Survivability After a Rapid Cabin Depressurization Event

Anecdotal evidence acquired through historic failure investigations involving rapid cabin decompression (e.g. Challenger, Columbia and Soyuz 11) show that full evacuation of the cabin atmosphere may occur within seconds. During such an event, the delta-pressure between the sealed suit ventilation system and the cabin will rise at the rate of the cabin depressurization; potentially at a rate exceeding the capability of the suit relief valve. It is possible that permanent damage to the suit pressure enclosure and ventilation loop components may occur as the integrated system may be subjected to delta pressures in excess of the design-to pressures. Additionally, as the total pressure of the suit ventilation system decreases, so does the oxygen available to the crew. The crew may be subjected to a temporarily incapacitating, but non-lethal, hypoxic environment. It is expected that the suit will maintain a survivable atmosphere on the crew until the vehicle pressure control system recovers or the cabin has otherwise attained a habitable environment. A common finding from the aforementioned reports indicates that the crew would have had a better chance at surviving the event had they been in a protective configuration, that is, in a survival suit. Making use of these lessons learned, the Constellation Program implemented a suit loop in the spacecraft design and required that the crew be in a protective configuration, that is suited with gloves on and visors down, during dynamic phases of flight that pose the greatest risk for a rapid and uncontrolled cabin depressurization event: ascent, entry, and docking. This paper details the evaluation performed to derive suit pressure garment and ventilation system performance parameters that would lead to the highest probability of crew survivability after an uncontrolled crew cabin depressurization event while remaining in the realm of practicality for suit design. This evaluation involved: (1) assessment of stakeholder expectations to validate the functionality being imposed; (2) review/refinement of concept of operations to establish the potential triggers for such an event and define the response of the spacecraft and suit ventilation loop pressure control systems; and (3) assessment of system capabilities with respect to structural capability and pressure control.

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗

A Dusty Atmospheric River Brings Floods to the Middle East

Torrential rainfall and rapid snowmelt in April 2017 caused deadly floods in northwestern Iran. An atmospheric river (AR), propagating across the Middle East and North Africa, was found responsible for this extreme event. The snowmelt was triggered by precipitation and warm advection associated with the AR. Total satellite-based rainfall for April 2017 was moderately below normal, suggesting that a heavy flood can happen during dry years. The AR was fed by moisture from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Despite its adverse societal consequences, this event was beneficial to the recovery of the desiccating Lake Urmia. The impacts of this AR were not limited to flooding; it also facilitated dust transport to the region. This distinct characteristic of the ARs in the Middle East is attributed to major mineral dust sources located along their pathways. This event was reasonably predicted at 7-day lead time, crucially important for successful early warning systems.

Atmospheric river↗

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

Using ACIS on the Chandra X-ray Observatory as a Particle Radiation Monitor II

The Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer is an instrument on the Chandra X-ray Observatory. CCDs are vulnerable to radiation damage, particularly by soft protons in the radiation belts and solar storms. The Chandra team has implemented procedures to protect ACIS during high-radiation events including autonomous protection triggered by an on-board radiation monitor. Elevated temperatures have reduced the effectiveness of the on-board monitor. The ACIS team has developed an algorithm which uses data from the CCDs themselves to detect periods of high radiation and a flight software patch to apply this algorithm is currently active on-board the instrument. In this paper, we explore the ACIS response to particle radiation through comparisons to a number of external measures of the radiation environment. We hope to better understand the efficiency of the algorithm as a function of the flux and spectrum of the particles and the time-profile of the radiation event.

Grant, C. E.↗

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Climatology↗

Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Contingency Drogue Deploy Velocity Trigger

As a backup to the GPS-aided Kalman filter and the Barometric altimeter, an "adjusted" velocity trigger is used during entry to trigger the chain of events that leads to drogue chute deploy for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Even though this scenario is multiple failures deep, the Orion Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) software makes use of a clever technique that was taken from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) program, which recently successfully landing the Curiosity rover on Mars. MSL used this technique to jettison the heat shield at the proper time during descent. Originally, Orion use the un-adjusted navigated velocity, but the removal of the Star Tracker to save costs for EFT-1, increased attitude errors which increased inertial propagation errors to the point where the un-adjusted velocity caused altitude dispersions at drogue deploy to be too large. Thus, to reduce dispersions, the velocity vector is projected onto a "reference" vector that represents the nominal "truth" vector at the desired point in the trajectory. Because the navigation errors are largely perpendicular to the truth vector, this projection significantly reduces dispersions in the velocity magnitude. This paper will detail the evolution of this trigger method for the Orion project and cover the various methods tested to determine the reference "truth" vector; and at what point in the trajectory it should be computed.

Gay, Robert S.↗

Evaluation of ERTS data for certain oceanographic uses

The author has identified the following significant results. According to Lake Michigan records, the pH levels have been steadily increasing as the lake becomes more eutrophic. Numerous upwellings during the summer of 1973, beginning with the late July event, appear to be triggering a chemical precipitation of calcium carbonate. The upwelling provides abundant carbon dioxide into the surface water and results in massive blooms of phytoplankton. As the CO2 is utilized by these microscopic plants the pH is increased (acidity decreases) and CaCO3 no longer is able to remain in solution. The precipitation takes place where the phytoplankton are living, near depths of 10 meters. Therefore, the whiting observed by ERTS-1 is only seen in the green band, as red cannot penetrate but a few meters. With these whitings, secci disc readings lower in July from 10-15 meters to 3-5 meters and green, milky water is observed by research vessels. It appears that whitings have been becoming more frequent since the middle 60's but until ERTS-1 the extent had never been realized. Calcium levels are too low, presently, for a similar precipitate in Lakes Huron or Superior. However, whitings have been seen by ERTS-1 in Lakes Erie and Ontario where the calcium ion and pH levels are more like those found in Lake Michigan.

Strong, A. E.↗

New evidence for impact origin of the Bushveld Complex, South Africa

The importance of hypervelocity impacts as a geologic process is demonstrated by the example of the Bushveld Complex and the (nearby) Vredefort Ring. Each is interpreted as the result of four simultaneous impacts modified by large-scale endogenic processes triggered by the impact event. The layered mafic sequence and the voluminous red granite associated with the complex are endogenic magmas, probably generated by pressure release accompanying crater excavation. Shock melting of older sedimentary rocks must have produced a layer of impact melt (the Rooiberg Felsite), the upper part of which was extruded over its originally chilled crust as a series of thick lava flows. Field evidence and radiometric age determinations indicate that the Bushveld Complex formed approximately 2000 billion years ago.

Rhodes, R. C.↗