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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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In this project, we bring together state-of-the-art optimization and control tools to provide a pragmatic, yet innovative hierarchical scheme for coordinating DERs at scale.
This project evaluated the use of emerging spintronic memory devices for robust and efficient variational inference schemes. Variational inference (VI) schemes, which constrain the distribution for each weight to be a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation, are a tractable method for calculating posterior distributions of weights in a Bayesian neural network such that this neural network can also be trained using the powerful backpropagation algorithm. Our project focuses on domain-wall magnetic tunnel junctions (DW-MTJs), a powerful multi-functional spintronic synapse design that can achieve low power switching while also opening the pathway towards repeatable, analog operation using fabricated notches. Our initial efforts to employ DW-MTJs as an all-in-one stochastic synapse with both a mean and standard deviation didn’t end up meeting the quality metrics for hardware-friendly VI. In the future, new device stacks and methods for expressive anisotropy modification may make this idea still possible. However, as a fall back that immediately satisfies our requirements, we invented and detailed how the combination of a DW-MTJ synapse encoding the mean and a probabilistic Bayes-MTJ device, programmed via a ferroelectric or ionically modifiable layer, can robustly and expressively implement VI. This design includes a physics-informed small circuit model, that was scaled up to perform and demonstrate rigorous uncertainty quantification applications, up to and including small convolutional networks on a grayscale image classification task, and larger (Residual) networks implementing multi-channel image classification. Lastly, as these results and ideas all depend upon the idea of an inference application where weights (spintronic memory states) remain non-volatile, the retention of these synapses for the notched case was further interrogated. These investigations revealed and emphasized the importance of both notch geometry and anisotropy modification in order to further enhance the endurance of written spintronic states. In the near future, these results will be mapped to effective predictions for room temperature and elevated operation DW-MTJ memory retention, and experimentally verified when devices become available.
We report an analysis quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in annual energy projections from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance. Uncertainty in measured irradiance is quantified for eight instruments by the difference from a well maintained, secondary standard pyranometer which is regarded as truthful. We construct a statistical model of irradiance uncertainty and apply the model to generate a sample of 100 annual time series of irradiance for each instrument. The sample is propagated through a common performance model for a reference photovoltaic system to quantify variation in annual energy. Although the measured irradiance varies from the reference by a few percent (standard deviation of 1-2%) the uncertainty in annual energy is on the order of a fraction of one percent. We propose a model for a factor that represents uncertainty in modeled annual energy that arises from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance.
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A high-fidelity battery model is essential for precise economic analysis of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), but these models are computationally intensive. Heuristic models offer computational efficiency but compromise the accuracy of economic analysis results. We assess the impact of errors in heuristic battery models on economic analysis by utilizing open-circuit voltage (OCV) measurements from battery experiments.
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The control of linear continuous dynamical systems is investigated as a problem of limited state feedback control. The equations which describe the structure of an observer are developed constrained to time-invarient systems. The optimal control problem is formulated, accounting for the uncertainty in the design parameters. Expressions for bounds on closed loop stability are also developed. The results indicate that very little uncertainty may be tolerated before divergence occurs in the recursive computation algorithms, and the derived stability bound yields extremely conservative estimates of regions of allowable parameter variations.
The positive limit sets of the solutions of a contingent differential equation are shown to possess an invariance property. In this connection the 'invariance principle' in the theory of Lyapunov stability is extended to systems with unknown, bounded, time-varying parameters, and thus to a large and important class of nonautonomous systems. Asymptotic stability criteria are obtained and applied to guaranteed cost control problems.
A procedure has been developed for constructing a statistical model of the altitude-dependent mean wind profile from the historical record of wind measurements at particular locations. The model is constructed by fitting a Markov process, with altitude as the stage variable, to the historical wind data. The wind model, together with the aircraft dynamics and the error characteristics of the navigation system, are incorporated in the design of a state estimator, which gives the minimum variance estimate of the aircraft state and the wind vector. The state and wind estimates are used as inputs to a linear feedback law for guiding the aircraft along the nominal trajectory. An example design of a time-constrained (4D RNAV) descent guidance system is presented, showing tracking accuracy, control activity, and probability of arrival time with and without the wind estimator.
A class of dynamical systems in a conflict situation is formulated and discussed, and the formulation is applied to the study of an important class of systems in the presence of uncertainty. The uncertainty is deterministic and the only assumption is that its value belongs to a known compact set. Asymptotic stability is fully discussed with application to variable structure and model reference control systems.