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At least 145 records · Page 8

An Agnostic Approach to Building Empirical Type Ia Supernova Light Curves: Evidence for Intrinsic Chromatic Flux Variation Using Nearby Supernova Factory Data

We present a new empirical Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) model with three chromatic flux variation templates: one phase dependent and two phase independent. No underlying dust extinction model or patterns of intrinsic variability are assumed. Implemented with Stan and trained using spectrally binned Nearby Supernova Factory spectrophotometry, we examine this model's 2D, phase-independent flux variation space using two motivated basis representations. In both, the first phase-independent template captures variation that appears dust-like, while the second captures a combination of effectively intrinsic variability and second-order dust-like effects. We find that ≈13% of the modeled phase-independent flux variance is not dust-like. Previous empirical SN Ia models either assume an effective dust extinction recipe in their architecture, or only allow for a single mode of phase-independent variation. The presented results demonstrate such an approach may be insufficient, because it could "leak" noticeable intrinsic variation into phase-independent templates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatiotemporal Variability in Transport and Reactive Processes Across a First- to Fifth-Order Fluvial Network

Fluvial networks integrate and transport constituents from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. To date, most research on water quality dynamics has focused on process understanding at individual streams and, as a result, there is a lack of studies analyzing how small-scale, physical and biogeochemical drivers scale across fluvial networks. We performed tracer tests in five stream orders of the Jemez River continuum in New Mexico, USA, to quantify reach-scale hyporheic exchange during two different seasonal periods to address: how do hyporheic zone contributions to riverine processing change with space and time? And does the spatiotemporal variability of hyporheic exchange scale across fluvial networks? Combining conservative (i.e., bromide) and reactive (i.e., resazurin) tracer analyses with solute transport modeling, we found a dominance of reaction-limited transport conditions in space (for all stream orders) and time (two contrasting flow regimes). Moreover, we found a trend toward more reaction-limited conditions with increasing discharge across all stream orders. While our studied fluvial network did not consistently follow the expectations of decreasing hyporheic exchange contributions with increasing stream order, as it has been previously suggested from modeling studies, we found that processing rate coefficients and Damköhler numbers consistently decreased along the continuum with increasing discharge. Our findings suggest that knowledge transferability of hyporheic zone processing along fluvial networks may be possible if the scaling patterns that we found hold true in other catchments. Thus, more research on scaling patterns along fluvial networks is highly needed.

Gootman, Kaylyn S.↗

Characterisation of the spatial variability of material properties of Gilsocarbon and NBG-18 using random fields

Graphite is a candidate material for Generation IV concepts and is used as a moderator in Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGR) in the UK. Spatial material variability is present within billets causing different material property values between different components. Variations in material properties and irradiation effects can produce stress concentrations and diverse mechanical responses in a nuclear reactor graphite core. In order to characterise the material variability, geostatistical techniques called variography and random field theory were adapted for studying the density and Young's modulus of a billet of Gilsocarbon and NBG-18 graphite grades. Variography is a technique for estimating the distance over which material property values have significant spatial correlation, known as the scale of fluctuation or spatial correlation length. The paper uses random field theory to create models that mimic the original spatial and statistical distributions of the original data set. This study found different values of correlation length for density and Young's modulus around the edges of a Gilsocarbon billet, while in the case of NBG-18, similar correlation lengths where found across the billet. Furthermore examples of several random fields are given to reproduce the spatial patterns and values found in the original data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Arbitrary-order time-accurate semi-Lagrangian spectral approximations of the Vlasov–Poisson system

The Vlasov–Poisson system, modeling the evolution of non-collisional plasmas in the electrostatic limit, is approximated by a semi-Lagrangian technique. Spectral methods of periodic type are implemented through a collocation approach. Groups of particles are represented by the Fourier Lagrangian basis and evolve, for a single timestep, along a high-order accurate representation of the local characteristic lines. The time-advancing technique is based on truncated Taylor series that can be, in principle, of any order of accuracy. A variant is obtained by coupling the phase space discretization with high-order accurate Backward Differentiation Formulas (BDF). At each timestep, particle displacements are reinterpolated and expressed in the original basis to guarantee the order of accuracy in all the variables at relatively low costs. Thus, these techniques combine the excellent features of spectral approximations with high-order time integration. The resulting method has excellent conservation properties. Indeed, it can be proven that the total number of particles, proportional to the total mass and charge, is conserved up to the machine precision. Series of numerical experiments are performed in order to assess the real performance. In particular, comparisons with standard benchmarks are examined.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Variable Ion Compositions of Solar Energetic Particle Events in the Inner Heliosphere: A Field Line Braiding Model with Compound Injections

We propose a model for interpreting highly variable ion composition ratios in solar energetic particle (SEP) events recently observed by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) at 0.3–0.45 au. We use numerical simulations to calculate SEP propagation in a turbulent interplanetary magnetic field with a Kolmogorov power spectrum from large scales down to the gyration scale of energetic particles. We show that when the source regions of different species are offset by a distance comparable to the size of the source regions, the observed energetic particle composition He/H can be strongly variable over more than two orders of magnitude, even if the source ratio is at the nominal value. Assuming a 3 He/ 4 He source ratio of 10% in impulsive 3 He-rich events and the same spatial offset of the source regions, the 3 He/ 4 He ratio at observation sites also vary considerably. The variability of the ion composition ratios depends on the radial distance, which can be tested by observations made at different radial locations. We discuss the implications of these results on the variability of ion composition of impulsive events and on further PSP and Solar Orbiter observations close to the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-Term Measurements of Methane Ebullition From Thaw Ponds

Arctic regions are experiencing rapid warming, leading to permafrost thaw and formation of numerous water bodies. Although small ponds in particular are considered hot spots for methane (CH 4 ) release, long-term studies of CH 4 efflux from these surfaces are rare. We have collected an extensive data set of CH 4 ebullition (bubbling) measurements from eight small thaw ponds (<0.001 km 2 ) with different physical and hydrological characteristics over four summer seasons, the longest set of observations from thaw ponds to date. The measured fluxes were highly variable with an average of 20.0 mg CH 4 · m -2 · day -1 (median: 4.1 mg CH 4 · m -2 · day -1 , n = 2,063) which is higher than that of most nearby lakes. The ponds were categorized into four types based on clear and significant differences in bubble flux. We found that the amount of CH 4 released as bubbles from ponds was very weakly correlated with environmental variables, like air temperature and atmospheric pressure, and was potentially more related to differences in physical characteristics of the ponds. Using our measured average daily bubble flux plus the available literature, we estimate circumpolar thaw ponds <0.001 km 2 in size to emit between 0.2 and 1.0 Tg of CH 4 through ebullition. Our findings exemplify the importance of high-frequency measurements over long study periods in order to adequately capture the variability of these water bodies. Through the expansion of current spatial and temporal monitoring efforts, we can increase our ability to estimate CH 4 emissions from permafrost pond ecosystems now and in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectives laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effects of CO2 Addition on the Turbulent Flame Front Dynamics and Propagation Speeds of Methane/Air Mixtures

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the most promising methods of improving the performance of power-generating gas turbines. CO2 is known to have the largest impact on flame behavior of any major exhaust species, but few studies have specified its thermal, kinetic, and transport effects on turbulent flames. Therefore, in this study, methane/air mixtures diluted with CO2 are experimentally investigated in a reactor-assisted turbulent slot (RATS) burner using OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements. CO2 addition is tested under both constant adiabatic flame temperature and variable adiabatic flame temperature conditions in order to elucidate its thermal, kinetic, and transport effects. Particular attention is paid to CO2's effects on the flame surface density, progress variable, turbulent burning velocity, and flame wrinkling. The experimental measurements reveal that CO2's thermal effects are the dominant factor in elongating the turbulent flame brush and decreasing the turbulent burning velocity. When thermal effects are removed by holding the adiabatic flame temperature constant, CO2's kinetic effects are the next most important factor, producing an approximately 5% decrease in the global consumption speed for each 5% of CO2 addition. The transport effects of CO2, however, tend to increase the global consumption speed, counteracting 30–50% of the kinetic effects when the adiabatic flame temperature is fixed. It is also seen that CO2 addition increases the normalized global consumption speed primarily through an enhancement of the stretch factor.

Engineering↗

Quantizations of the classical time of arrival and their dynamics

The classical time of arrival in the interacting case is quantized by way of quantizing its expansion about the free time of arrival. The quantization is formulated in coordinate representation which represents ordering rules in terms of two variable polynomial functions. This leads to representations of the quantized time of arrival operators as integral operators whose kernels are determined by the chosen ordering rule. The formulation lends itself to generalization which allows construction of time of arrival operators that cannot be obtained by direct quantization using particular ordering rules. Weyl, symmetric and Born–Jordan quantizations are specifically studied. The dynamics of the eigenfunctions of the different time of arrival operators are investigated. The eigenfunctions exhibit unitary arrival at the intended arrival point at their respective eigenvalues.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Milky Way Revealed by Variable Stars. I. Sample Selection of RR Lyrae Stars and Evidence for Merger History

In order to study the Milky Way, RR Lyrae (RRL) variable stars identified by Gaia, ASAS-SN, and ZTF sky survey projects have been analyzed as tracers in this work. Photometric and spectroscopic information of 3417 RRLs including proper motions, radial velocity, and metallcity are obtained from observational data of Gaia, LAMOST, GALAH, APOGEE, and RAVE. Precise distances of RRLs with typical uncertainties less than 3% are derived by using a recent comprehensive period–luminosity–metallicity relation. Our results from kinematical and chemical analysis provide important clues for the assembly history of the Milky Way, especially for the Gaia–Sausage ancient merger. The kinematical and chemical trends found in this work are consistent with those of recent simulations that indicated that the Gaia–Sausage merger had a dual origin in the Galactic thick disk and halo. As recent similar works have found, the halo RRL sample in this work contains a subset of radially biased orbits besides a more isotropic component. This higher orbital anisotropy component amounts to β ≃ 0.8, and it contributes between 42% and 83% of the halo RRLs at 4 < R( kpc) < 20.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial analysis of concentrations of multiple air pollutants using NASA DISCOVER-AQ aircraft measurements: Implications for exposure assessment

Highlights: • Aircraft measurements showed spatially varying relations of multiple air pollutants. • NO{sub x}, toluene, and xylenes/ethylbenzene were reasonable proxies of traffic and urban air pollution. • Between-pollutant concentration correlations and ratios varied by space. • Multiple pollutant relations provided insights for exposure assessment and multipollutant epidemiology. In recent years, multipollutant approaches have been employed to investigate the association with health outcomes to better represent real-world conditions than more traditional analysis that considers a single pollutant. With regard to the exposure assessment of a mixture of air pollutants, it is critical to understand the spatial variability in multipollutant relations in order to assess their potential health implications. In this study, we investigated the spatial relations of multiple pollutant concentrations (i.e., NO{sub x}, NO{sub y}, black carbon, carbon monoxide, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, toluene, xylenes/ethylbenzene, ozone, water-soluble organic carbon, and aerosol extinction) observed from the P-3B aircraft in the 2011 NASA field campaign in Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas during July 2011. The between-pollutant Pearson correlations and Z-scores (calculated from log-transformed concentrations) between near-highways and non-highways and between near-urban centers and non-urban centers varied by pollutant pair and space. We found generally lower correlations between NO{sub x} and other pollutants for near-highways (average r = 0.36) than for non-highways (average r = 0.41) and also for non-urban centers (average r = 0.37) than for near-urban centers (average r = 0.41). This indicated that the temporal associations between NO{sub x} and health outcomes might be less affected by other pollutants, which were also related to same health outcomes, for near-highways and non-urban centers. The analysis of between-pollutant Z-scores showed varying spatial relations for popular traffic-related pollutants with the Z-score differences of 0.43 (NO{sub x}-carbon monoxide), 0.29 (NO{sub x}-black carbon), and 0.17 (black carbon-carbon monoxide) between near-highways and non-highways. This result exhibited heterogeneous traffic-related pollutant mixtures with the proximity to highways, potentially leading to the diverse extent of health associations. Furthermore, a mixed effects model presented pollutant-specific associations between the concentrations and the proximity to highways and urban centers, showing larger declines for NO{sub x}, xylenes/ethylbenzene, toluene, and NO{sub y} than those for the pollutants related to secondary pollutant formation. The model also demonstrated the different sensitivity of each pollutant to meteorological parameters, which may modify the spatial and temporal variability in the relations between the pollutants. Our findings provide insights for exposure assessment studies to better understand the cumulative health consequences associated with multiple air pollutants simultaneously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗

On the relative roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability

The relative roles of the ocean and the atmosphere in driving the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are investigated by isolating the AMO components forced by anomalous surface heat fluxes and ocean dynamics in a fully- and partially-coupled experiments. The impact of the ocean-dynamics-forced SST on air-sea interaction is disabled in the partially-coupled experiment in order to isolate the atmosphere-forced variability. In the partially-coupled experiment, the ocean-forced AMO component exhibits a strong multi-decadal variability (25- to 50-yr periods), while the atmosphere-forced component has weak multi-decadal variability. This ocean-forced variability is imprinted on the fully-coupled surface heat fluxes, which however, damp the ocean-forced SST variability inducing them, so that the fully-coupled AMO multi-decadal power is only slightly stronger than that forced by the atmosphere alone. Our results suggest that the multi-decadal variability of the AMO is largely driven by ocean dynamics, but its power is also determined by the strength air-sea coupling.

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.↗

Linear fractional differential equations and eigenfunctions of fractional differential operators

Eigenfunctions associated with Riemann–Liouville and Caputo fractional differential operators are obtained by imposing a restriction on the fractional derivative parameter. Those eigenfunctions can be used to express the analytical solution of some linear sequential fractional differential equations. As a first application, we discuss analytical solutions for the so-called fractional Helmholtz equation with one variable, obtained from the standard equation in one dimension by replacing the integer order derivative by the Riemann–Liouville fractional derivative. A second application consists of an initial value problem for a fractional wave equation in two dimensions in which the integer order partial derivative with respect to the time variable is replaced by the Caputo fractional derivative. The classical Mittag-Leffler functions are important in the theory of fractional calculus because they emerge as solutions of fractional differential equations. Starting with the solution of a specific fractional differential equation in terms of these functions, we find a way to express the exponential function in terms of classical Mittag-Leffler functions. A remarkable characteristic of this relation is that it is true for any value of the parameter n appearing in the definition of the functions, i.e., we have an infinite family of different expressions for e{sup x} in terms of classical Mittag-Leffler functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IMPLEMENTATION OF DETAILED CHEMISTRY MECHANISMS IN ENGINE SIMULATIONS

The stiffness of large chemistry mechanisms has been proved to be a major hurdle toward predictive engine simulations. As a result, detailed chemistry mechanisms with a few thousand species need to be reduced based on target conditions so that they can be accommodated within the available computational resources. The computational cost of simulations typically increases super-linearly with the number of species and reactions. This work aims to bring detailed chemistry mechanisms within the realm of engine simulations by coupling the framework of unsteady flamelets and fast chemistry solvers. A previously developed tabulated flamelet model (TFM) framework for nonpremixed combustion was used in this study. The flamelet solver consists of the traditional operator-splitting scheme with variable coefficient ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver (VODE) and a numerical Jacobian for solving the chemistry. In order to use detailed mechanisms with thousands of species, a new framework with the Livermore solver for ODEs in sparse form (LSODES) chemistry solver and an analytical Jacobian was implemented in this work. Results from 1D simulations show that with the new framework, the computational cost is linearly proportional to the number of species in a given chemistry mechanism. As a result, the new framework is 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than the conventional variable coefficient ODE (VODE) solver for large chemistry mechanisms. This new framework was used to generate unsteady flamelet libraries for ndodecane using a detailed chemistry mechanism with 2755 species and 11,173 reactions. The engine combustion network (ECN) spray A experiments, which consist of an igniting n-dodecane spray in turbulent, high-pressure engine conditions are simulated using large eddy simulations (LES) coupled with detailed mechanisms. A grid with 0.06 mm minimum cell size and 22 x 10(6) peak cell count was implemented. The framework is validated across a range of ambient temperatures against ignition delay and liftoff lengths (LOLs). Qualitative results from the simulations were compared against experimental OH and CH2O planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) data. The models are able to capture the spatial and temporal trends in species compared to those observed in the experiments. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons between the predictions of the reduced and detailed mechanisms are presented in detail. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate that detailed reaction mechanisms (similar to 1000 species) can now be used in engine simulations with a linear increase in computation cost with number of species during the tabulation process and a small increase in the 3D simulation cost.

Kundu, Prithwish↗

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Semi-Lagrangian Spectral Method for the Vlasov–Poisson System Based on Fourier, Legendre and Hermite Polynomials

In this study, we apply a semi-Lagrangian spectral method for the Vlasov–Poisson system, previously designed for periodic Fourier discretizations, by implementing Legendre polynomials and Hermite functions in the approximation of the distribution function with respect to the velocity variable. We discuss second-order accurate-in-time schemes, obtained by coupling spectral techniques in the space–velocity domain with a BDF time-stepping scheme. The resulting method possesses good conservation properties, which have been assessed by a series of numerical tests conducted on some standard benchmark problems including the two-stream instability and the Landau damping test cases. In the Hermite case, we also investigate the numerical behavior in dependence of a scaling parameter in the Gaussian weight. Confirming previous results from the literature, our experiments for different representative values of this parameter, indicate that a proper choice may significantly impact on accuracy, thus suggesting that suitable strategies should be developed to automatically update the parameter during the time-advancing procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗