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At least 145 records · Page 8

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NASA NTRS1993

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

Keppenne, C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Non-Stationary Power System Forced Oscillation Analysis using Synchrosqueezing Transform

Non-stationary forced oscillations (FOs) have been observed in power system operations. However, most detection methods assume that the frequency of FOs is stationary. In this paper, we present a methodology for the analysis of nonstationary FOs. Firstly, Fourier synchrosqueezing transform (FSST) is used to provide a concentrated time-frequency representation of the signals that allows identification and retrieval of non-stationary signal components. To continue, the Dissipating Energy Flow (DEF) method is applied to the extracted components to locate the source of forced oscillations. The methodology is tested using simulated as well as real PMU data. In conclusion, the results show that the proposed FSST-based signal decomposition provides a systematic framework for the application of DEF Method to non-stationary FOs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2017

Ground-Based High Spectral Resolution Lidar Observation of Aerosol Vertical Distribution in the Summertime Southeast United States

As part of the Southeast United States-based Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS), and collinear with part of the Southeast Atmosphere Study, the University of Wisconsin High Spectral Resolution Lidar system was deployed to the University of Alabama from 19 June to 4 November 2013. With a collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer, a nearby Chemical Speciation Network (PM2.5) measurement station, and near daily ozonesonde releases for the August-September SEAC4RS campaign, the site allowed the regions first comprehensive diurnal monitoring of aerosol particle vertical structure. A 532nm lidar ratio of 55 sr provided good closure between aerosol backscatter and AERONET (aerosol optical thickness, AOT). A principle component analysis was performed to identify key modes of variability in aerosol backscatter. ''Fair weather'' days exhibited classic planetary boundary layer structure of a mixed layer accounting for approx. 50% of AOT and an entrainment zone providing another 25%. An additional 5-15% of variance is gained from the lower free troposphere from either convective detrainment or frequent intrusions of western United States biomass burning smoke. Generally, aerosol particles were contained below the 0 C level, a common level of stability in convective regimes. However, occasional strong injections of smoke to the upper troposphere were also observed, accounting for the remaining 10-15% variability in AOT. Examples of these common modes of variability in frontal and convective regimes are presented, demonstrating why AOT often has only a weak relationship to surface PM2.5 concentration.

HSRL↗

DOE OSTI2023

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Eigenvector analysis of some observed and model-generated Climatological fields

An empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly mean synoptic fields computed with a general circulation model and the corresponding observed climatological patterns is presented. A computer program was used to compute the principal components of the data matrices representing global maps of various observed and model-generated climatological fields. The variables analyzed were: 500mb geopotential height, 850 mb temperature, and sea level pressure. It is concluded that eigenvector analysis of observed and model-generated synoptic climatological fields is a useful diagnostic aid in the evaluation of global model simulation. The maps of any climatological variables are readily decomposed into a few orthogonal components which account for a large fraction of the total spatial variance, and the observed and model-generated patterns may then be compared in terms of these principal components of the original data matrices.

Dennis, M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Magnetic field directional discontinuities. I - Minimum variance errors

The paper deals with a statistical analysis of the errors associated with a minimum variance analysis of directional discontinuities by use of an idealized model of these discontinuities and various simulations, and also by an examination of actual Mariner 10 interplanetary magnetic field data. An empirical expression is derived for the magnitude of the error in an estimated discontinuity normal component, relative to the total field across the directional discontinuity. The analysis was performed primarily to aid in differentiating between interplanetary tangential and rotational discontinuities observed by Mariner 10.

Lepping, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Two biased estimation techniques in linear regression: Application to aircraft

Several ways for detection and assessment of collinearity in measured data are discussed. Because data collinearity usually results in poor least squares estimates, two estimation techniques which can limit a damaging effect of collinearity are presented. These two techniques, the principal components regression and mixed estimation, belong to a class of biased estimation techniques. Detection and assessment of data collinearity and the two biased estimation techniques are demonstrated in two examples using flight test data from longitudinal maneuvers of an experimental aircraft. The eigensystem analysis and parameter variance decomposition appeared to be a promising tool for collinearity evaluation. The biased estimators had far better accuracy than the results from the ordinary least squares technique.

Klein, Vladislav↗

NASA NTRS2013

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: 1. an EOF Approach to the Spatial-Temporal Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth Using Multiple Remote Sensing Data Sets

Many remote sensing techniques and passive sensors have been developed to measure global aerosol properties. While instantaneous comparisons between pixel-level data often reveal quantitative differences, here we use Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, also known as Principal Component Analysis, to demonstrate that satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets exhibit essentially the same spatial and temporal variability and are thus suitable for large-scale studies. Analysis results show that the first four EOF modes of AOD account for the bulk of the variance and agree well across the four data sets used in this study (i.e., Aqua MODIS, Terra MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS). Only SeaWiFS data over land have slightly different EOF patterns. Globally, the first two EOF modes show annual cycles and are mainly related to Sahara dust in the northern hemisphere and biomass burning in the southern hemisphere, respectively. After removing the mean seasonal cycle from the data, major aerosol sources, including biomass burning in South America and dust in West Africa, are revealed in the dominant modes due to the different interannual variability of aerosol emissions. The enhancement of biomass burning associated with El Niño over Indonesia and central South America is also captured with the EOF technique.

variability↗

NASA NTRS1981

Spherical harmonic analysis of a model-generated climatology

Monthly mean fields of 850 mb temperature (T850), 500 mb geopotential height (G500) and sea level pressure (SLP) were generated in the course of a five-year climate simulation run with a global general circulation model. Both the model-generated climatology and an observed climatology were subjected to spherical harmonic analysis, with separate analyses of the globe and the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison of the dominant harmonics of the two climatologies indicates that more than 95% of the area-weighted spatial variance of G500 and more than 90% of that of T850 are explained by fewer than three components, and that the model adequately simulates these large-scale characteristics. On the other hand, as many as 25 harmonics are needed to explain 95% of the observed variance of SLP, and the model simulation of this field is much less satisfactory. The model climatology is also evaluated in terms of the annual cycles of the dominant harmonics.

Christidis, Z. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modes of interannual variability in the stratosphere

During 1964-91, stratospheric temperature and circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter varied interannually on time scales from 2 to about 12 years. A substantial percentage of December-February interannual variance was correlated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Additional monthly variance could be accounted for by quasi-decadal oscillation and QBO/low-frequency modulation. The QBO was the largest and most consistent of these signals, and its decadal modulation explains an apparent correlation with the solar cycle depending on the sign of the QBO - an interpretation supported by principal component analysis.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Passive microwave observations of the Wedell Sea during austral winter and early spring

The results of multispectral passive microwave observations (6.7 to 90-GHz) are presented from the cruises of the FS Polarstern in the Weddell Sea from July to December 1986. This paper includes primarily the analysis of radiometric observations taken at ice station sites. Averaged emissivity spectra for first-year (FY) ice were relatively constant throughout the experiment and were not statistically different from FY ice signatures in the Arctic. Detailed ice characterization was carried out at each site to compare the microwave signatures of the ice with the physical properties. Absorption optical depths of FY ice were found to be sufficiently high that only the structure in the upper portions of the ice contributed significantly to interstation emissivity variations. The emissivities at 90-GHz, e(90), had the greatest variance. Both e(90) at vertical polarization and GR(sub e)(90, 18.7)(defined as (e(sub V)(90)-e(sub V)(18.7))/e(sub V)(90 + e(sub V)(18.7)) depended on the scattering optical depth which is a function of the snow grain diameter and layer thickness. The variance showed a latitude dependence and is probably due to an increase in the strength of snow metamorphism nearer the northern edge of the ice pack. The contribution of variations of near-surface brine volume to the emissivity was not significant over the range of values encountered at the station sites. Emissivity spectra are presented for a range of thin ice types. Unsupervised principal component analysis produced three significant eigenvectors and showed a separation among four different surface types: open water, thin ice, FY ice, and FY ice with a thick snow cover. A comparison with SMMR satellite data showed that average ice concentrations derived from the ship's ice watch log were consistent with the satellite concentrations. The surface based emissivities for FY ice were also compared with emissivities calculated from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) satellite radiances. Best agreement was found at 6.7 and 10-GHz, while at 18 and 37-GHz, SMMR emissivities were slightly lower than surface based results. For the three lower frequencies agreement was found within a confidence limit of 95% and for 37-GHz within about 90%.

Grenfell, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Digital Filter Separates Signal From Noise

Variance of signal-estimation error minimized. Mathematical technique extracts best estimates of signal component from periodic digital samples of signal plus noise. Technique combines Kalman- and smoothingfilter algorithms to minimize mean-square estimation error based on past, present, and predicted samples of signal plus noise. Technique useful in image analysis and other applications involving processing of noisy signals.

Lear, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Jovian Chromophore Characteristics from Multispectral HST Images

The chromophores responsible for coloring the jovian atmosphere are embedded within Jupiter's vertical aerosol structure. Sunlight propagates through this vertical distribution of aerosol particles, whose colors are defined by omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda), and we remotely observe the culmination of the radiative transfer as I/F(lambda). In this study, we employed a radiative transfer code to retrieve omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) for particles in Jupiter's tropospheric haze at seven wavelengths in the near-UV and visible regimes. The data consisted of images of the 2008 passage of Oval BA to the south of the Great Red Spot obtained by the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 on-board the Hubble Space Telescope. We present derived particle colors for locations that were selected from 14 weather regions, which spanned a large range of observed colors. All omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) curves were absorbing in the blue, and omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) increased monotonically to approximately unity as wavelength increased. We found accurate fits to all omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) curves using an empirically derived functional form: omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) = 1 A exp(-B lambda). The best-fit parameters for the mean omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) curve were A = 25.4 and B = 0.0149 for lambda in units of nm. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on our omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) results and found that one or two independent chromophores were sufficient to produce the variations in omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda). A PCA of I/F(lambda) for the same jovian locations resulted in principal components (PCs) with roughly the same variances as the omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) PCA, but they did not result in a one-to-one mapping of PC amplitudes between the omega-bar (sub 0)(lambda) PCA and I/F(lambda) PCA. We suggest that statistical analyses performed on I/ F(lambda) image cubes have limited applicability to the characterization of chromophores in the jovian atmosphere due to the sensitivity of 1/ F(lambda) to horizontal variations in the vertical aerosol distribution.

Strycker, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Hewitson, B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗