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NASA NTRS2021

SMD Technology Highlights

Seven technology highlights from the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Astrophysics, Planetary Science, Heliophysics, and Biological and Physical Sciences, and Earth Science divisions are featured: 1. Technology using precisely controlled ultraviolet light source that to suppress electrostatic noise in gravitational wave observatories 2. New micro-shutter technology that will enable space telescopes to perform spectroscopy on a large number of objects simultaneously 3. An optical seismometer that is micro-fabricated, easy to manufacture, immune to radiation damage, and operates with low power consumption to characterize ice sheets and mantle on icy worlds 4. Rediscovering the lost art of fluxgate magnetometer cores 5. Innovative technology to measure muscle strength of worms in space to prepare astronauts for future missions 6. A new state-of-the-art sensor and satellite platform to enable continued monitoring of Earth’s radiant energy system 7. Novel Algorithms to merge ground- and space-based data to forecast air pollution events

ultraviolet↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

We examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.

SSW↗
NASA NTRS2010

Initial Results of DC Electric Fields, Associated Plasma Drifts, Magnetic Fields, and Plasma Waves Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial results are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. The VEFI instrument includes a vector DC electric field detector, a fixed-bias Langmuir probe operating in the ion saturation regime, a flux gate magnetometer, an optical lightning detector, and associated electronics including a burst memory. Compared to data obtained during more active solar conditions, the ambient DC electric fields and their associated E x B drifts are variable and somewhat weak, typically < 1 mV/m. Although average drift directions show similarities to those previously reported, eastward/outward during day and westward/downward at night, this pattern varies significantly with longitude and is not always present. Daytime vertical drifts near the magnetic equator are largest after sunrise, with smaller average velocities after noon. Little or no pre-reversal enhancement in the vertical drift near sunset is observed, attributable to the solar minimum conditions creating a much reduced neutral dynamo at the satellite altitude. The nighttime ionosphere is characterized by larger amplitude, structured electric fields, even where the plasma density appears nearly quiescent. Data from successive orbits reveal that the vertical drifts and plasma density are both clearly organized with longitude. The spread-F density depletions and corresponding electric fields that have been detected thus far have displayed a preponderance to appear between midnight and dawn. Associated with the narrow plasma depletions that are detected are broad spectra of electric field and plasma density irregularities for which a full vector set of measurements is available for detailed study. Finally, the data set includes a wide range of ELF/VLF/HF oscillations corresponding to a variety of plasma waves, in particular banded ELF hiss, whistlers, and lower hybrid wave turbulence triggered by lightning-induced sferics. The VEFI data represents a new set of measurements that are germane to numerous fundamental aspects of the electrodynamics and irregularities inherent to the Earth's low latitude ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Efficient Low Dissipative High Order Schemes for Multiscale MHD Flows

Accurate numerical simulations of complex multiscale compressible viscous flows, especially high speed turbulence combustion and acoustics, demand high order schemes with adaptive numerical dissipation controls. Standard high resolution shock-capturing methods are too dissipative to capture the small scales and/or long-time wave propagations without extreme grid refinements and small time steps. An integrated approach for the control of numerical dissipation in high order schemes for the compressible Euler and Navier-Stokes equations has been developed and verified by the authors and collaborators. These schemes are suitable for the problems in question. Basically, the scheme consists of sixth-order or higher non-dissipative spatial difference operators as the base scheme. To control the amount of numerical dissipation, multiresolution wavelets are used as sensors to adaptively limit the amount and to aid the selection and/or blending of the appropriate types of numerical dissipation to be used. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves play a key role in drag reduction in highly maneuverable high speed combat aircraft, in space weather forecasting, and in the understanding of the dynamics of the evolution of our solar system and the main sequence stars. Although there exist a few well-studied second and third-order high-resolution shock-capturing schemes for the MHD in the literature, these schemes are too diffusive and not practical for turbulence/combustion MHD flows. On the other hand, extension of higher than third-order high-resolution schemes to the MHD system of equations is not straightforward. Unlike the hydrodynamic equations, the inviscid MHD system is non-strictly hyperbolic with non-convex fluxes. The wave structures and shock types are different from their hydrodynamic counterparts. Many of the non-traditional hydrodynamic shocks are not fully understood. Consequently, reliable and highly accurate numerical schemes for multiscale MHD equations pose a great challenge to algorithm development. In addition, controlling the numerical error of the divergence free condition of the magnetic fields for high order methods has been a stumbling block. Lower order methods are not practical for the astrophysical problems in question. We propose to extend our hydrodynamics schemes to the MHD equations with several desired properties over commonly used MHD schemes.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern↗
NASA NTRS1993

Session on validation of coupled models

The session on validation of coupled models is reviewed. The current use of a mesoscale model with a grid size of 20-km during STORM-FEST in 1992 has proven to be extremely valuable. The availability of forecast products at a much higher temporal and spatial resolution was very helpful for mesoscale forecasting, mission planning, and the guidance of research aircraft. Recent numerical simulation of ocean cyclones and mesoscsle convective systems using nonhydrostatic cloud/mesoscale models with a grid size as small as 2-km have demonstrated the potential of these models for predicting mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, hurricane rainbands, mesoscale gravity waves, and mesoscale frontal structures embedded within an extratropical cyclone. Although mesoscale/cloud scale models have demonstrated strong potential for use in operational forecasting, very limited quantitative evaluation (and verification) of these models were performed. As a result, the accuracy, the systematic biases, and the useful forecasts limits were not properly defined for these models. Also, no serious attempts were made to use these models for operational prediction of mesoscale convective systems.

Kuo, Bill↗
NASA NTRS1979

Simulation studies of the application of SEASAT data in weather and state of sea forecasting models

The design and analysis of SEASAT simulation studies in which the error structure of conventional analyses and forecasts is modeled realistically are presented. The development and computer implementation of a global spectral ocean wave model is described. The design of algorithms for the assimilation of theoretical wind data into computers and for the utilization of real wind data and wave height data in a coupled computer system are presented.

Cardone, V. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Planetary wave prediction: Benefits of tropical data and global models

Skillful numerical predictions of midlatitude atmospheric planetary waves generally require both tropical data for the initial conditions and a global domain for the forecast model. The lack of either adequate tropical observations or a global domain typically leads to a significant degradation of forecast skill in middle latitudes within the first one to three days of the forecast period. These effects were first discovered by numerical experimentation. They were subsequently explained theoretically, and their importance for practical forecasting was confirmed in a series of prediction experiments using FGGE data.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

Motivation: Ocean data is sparse: reliance on satellite imagery for marine forecasting; Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) –“mariner’s weather lifeline”. Responsible for: Pacific, Atlantic, Pacific Alaska surface analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Wind & wave analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Issue warnings, make decisions, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite –R Series (now GOES-16), Compared to the old GOES: 3 times spectral resolution, 4 times spatial resolution, 5 times faster coverage; Comparable to Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Himawari-8, used a lot throughout this research. Research Question: How can integrating satellite data imagery and derived products help forecasters improve prognosis of rapid cyclogenesis and hurricane-force wind events? Phase I –Identifying stratospheric air intrusions: Water Vapor –6.2, 6.9, 7.3 micron channels; Airmass RGB Product; AIRS, IASI, NUCAPS total column ozone and ozone anomaly; ASCAT (A/B) and AMSR-2 wind data.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of quasi-geostrophic planetary waves in global and hemispheric domains

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sensitivity of Different Types of Observations to NASA GEOS Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was the 5th most active, featuring 17 named storms, the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005, and by far the costliest season on record. African easterly waves often serve as the seeding circulation for a large portion of hurricanes (i.e. tropical storms with wind over 74mph in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific). Warm SST, moist air, and low wind shear are the main requirements for tropical cyclones to develop and maintain hurricane strength. In terms of hurricane propagation (so called hurricane tracks), Atlantic hurricanes typically propagate around the periphery of the subtropical ridge called the Bermuda High (Azores High), riding along its strongest winds. If the high is positioned to the east, then hurricanes generally propagate northeastward around the high's western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making land fall. If the high is positioned to the west and extends far enough to the south, storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west towards Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico. If we have accurate atmospheric temperature distribution, which is directly related to atmospheric wave patterns, wind distributions, moisture distribution, and SST distribution in the analyses, we will have better NWP skills in hurricane analyses including hurricane intensity and tracks. Assimilating various observation data are supposed to play these roles in the analyses. To examine impacts of different types of observation data on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model hurricane analyses and forecasts during the period of 2017 summer, this study performs data denial experiments using GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), which is based on the hybrid 4D-EnVar GSI algorithm. Various types of observations such as microwave sounders, infrared sounders, TCvitals, and conventional data are removed in the experiments. In addition, the interaction between the different observation groups as certain instruments are removed from the analysis is investigated in detail using adjoint based forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI).

Hurricane↗
NASA NTRS1984

Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of interplanetary disturbances between the sun and earth

A time-dependent, nonplanar, two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic computer model is used to simulate a series, separately examined, of solar flare-generated shock waves and their subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space between the sun and the earth's magnetosphere. The 'canonical' or ansatz series of shock waves include initial velocities near the sun over the range 500 to 3500 km/s. The ambient solar wind, through which they propagate, is taken to be a steady state homogeneous plasma (that is, independent of heliolongitude) with a representative set of plasma and magnetic field parameters. Complete sets of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are presented and discussed. Particular attention is addressed to the MHD model's ability to address fundamental operational questions vis-a-vis the long-range forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances. These questions are: (1) will a disturbance (such as the present canonical series of solar flare shock waves) produce a magnetospheric and ionospheric disturbance, and, if so, (2) when will it start, (3) how severe will it be, and (4) how long will it last? The model's output is used to compute various solar wind indices of current interest as a demonstration of the model's potential for providing 'answers' to these questions.

Dryer, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts

Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized

ATAP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ice Cloud Observations and Science using Submillimeter-Wave Radiometry

Submillimeter-wave radiometers provide vital information on ice clouds and precipitation. These data are key for improving weather forecasting, particularly for disruptive winter storms, and for better understanding climate. Our airborne radiometer will provide data that will allow us to better use data from upcoming space missions with these types of sensors.

Ian Adams↗
NASA NTRS2020

Prediction Skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains Flash Drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Models

Flash droughts refer to droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal (i.e., on the order of weeks to a few months). Such droughts can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. We investigated the prediction skill of U.S. flash droughts at subseasonal lead times in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project. An additional comprehensive set of hindcasts with NASA?s GEOSv2.1, a model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. Here we focus on results for the 2012 Great Plains flash drought, noting that the findings based on this event are generally applicable to other U.S. flash droughts. The prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While the skill is limited to less than 2 weeks in most models, it is considerably higher (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-North Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary Rossby waves.

DeAngelis, Anthony M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observation of Schumann Resonances in the Earth's Ionosphere

The surface of the Earth and the lower edge of the ionosphere define a cavity in which electromagnetic waves propagate. When the cavity is excited by broadband electromagnetic sources, e.g., lightning, a resonant state can develop provided the average equatorial circumference is approximately equal to an integral number of wavelengths of the electromagnetic waves. This phenomenon, known as Schumann resonance, corresponds to electromagnetic oscillations of the surface-ionosphere cavity, and has been used extensively to investigate atmospheric electricity. Using measurements from the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, we report, for the first time, Schumann resonance signatures detected well beyond the upper boundary of the cavity. These results offer new means for investigating atmospheric electricity, tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms related to lightning activity, and wave propagation in the ionosphere. The detection of Schumann resonances in the ionosphere calls for revisions to the existing models of extremely low frequency wave propagation in the surface-ionosphere cavity. Additionally, these measurements suggest new remote sensing capabilities for investigating atmospheric electricity at other planets.

Simoes, Fernando↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Satellite Systems for Measuring Soil Moisture

The science need for remotely sensed soil moisture has been well established in the hydrologic, climate change and weather forecasting communities. There also have been a number of programs that have demonstrated the feasibility of using long wave microwave sensors for estimating soil moisture. These have ranged from truck mounted sensors, to intensive airborne campaigns with science objectives. Based on this history of truck and aircraft experiments, the science community has settled on a soil moisture product that meets the following criteria: a two day global repeat, a measured layer of 5 cm of soil, a footprint of 20 to 30 km, and an absolute accuracy of +/- 4% volumetric soil moisture. The principal sensor to accomplish this is an L-band passive microwave radiometer. A soil moisture mission is being proposed for the NASA Earth Systems Science Pathfinder (ESSP) mission which has very real constraints of a limited budget which includes the launch vehicle, and a three year award to launch time schedule. This paper describes ways to solve the very large antenna challenge, and the criteria used to choose the final design for an ESSP proposal. The paper also discusses the alternatives considered to obtain the necessary ancillary data for characterizing the surface roughness, the surface temperature and the attenuation affects of vegetation.

Engman, Edwin T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relationship between Precipitating Convection and Easterly Wave Dynamics in the Western Central Pacific

The main proposed goal of this research was a synthesis of radiosonde and radar time series from the TRMM validation experiment KWAJEX (Jul. 23 - Sep. 14 1999) with satellite datasets and forecast model based analyses, in order to characterize synoptic-scale disturbances passing through the Kwajalein (9 deg N 168 deg W) region on the north edge of the central Pacific ITCZ. The Sobel et al. paper summarizes our methodology and findings. A classic paper of Reed and Recker had documented the steady pulse of easterly waves modulating meridional wind, clouds and precipitation in and west of this region in a set of observations in boreal fall. Our study found easterly waves were much less organized and intense during KWAJEX, and only weakly correlated with daily area-averaged radar-derived precipitation and IR brightness temperature. Instead, we focused on three disturbances associated with the highest daily-averaged rainfall amounts during the period. We found by looking at NCEP reanalyses that only one was an easterly wave, while the other two corresponded to an equatorial Kelvin wave and a mixed Rossby-gravity wave, respectively. The contrast with Reed and Recker may be sampling variability, but the timing of KWAJEX, earlier in the year, and during suppressed (weak La Nina) conditions may also contribute to our different conclusions.

Bretherton, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments on the Summer 1980 Heat Wave and Drought

During the summer of 1980, a prolonged heat wave and drought affected the United States. A preliminary set of experiments has been conducted to study the effect of varying boundary conditions on the GLA model simulation of the heat wave. Five 10-day numerical integrations with three different specifications of boundary conditions were carried out: a control experiment which utilized climatological boundary conditions, an SST experiment which utilized summer 1980 sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, but climatological values elsewhere, and a Soil Moisture experiment which utilized the values of Mintz-Serafini for the summer, 1980. The starting dates for the five forecasts were 11 June, 7 July, 21 July, 22 August, and 6 September of 1980. These dates were specifically chosen as days when a heat wave was already established in order to investigate the effect of soil moistures or North Pacific sea-surface temperatures on the model's ability to maintain the heat wave pattern. The experiments were evaluated in terms of the heat wave index for the South Plains, North Plains, Great Plains and the entire U.S. In addition a subjective comparison of map patterns has been performed.

Wolfson, N.↗