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At least 145 records · Page 8

How open data and interdisciplinary collaboration improve our understanding of space weather: A risk and resiliency perspective

Space weather refers to conditions around a star, like our Sun, and its interplanetary space that may affect space- and ground-based assets as well as human life. Space weather can manifest as many different phenomena, often simultaneously, and can create complex and sometimes dangerous conditions. The study of space weather is inherently trans-disciplinary, including subfields of solar, magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric research communities, but benefiting from collaborations with policymakers, industry, astrophysics, software engineering, and many more. Effective communication is required between scientists, the end-user community, and government organizations to ensure that we are prepared for any adverse space weather effects. With the rapid growth of the field in recent years, the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 maximum, and the evolution of research-ready technologies, we believe that space weather deserves a reexamination in terms of a “risk and resiliency” framework. By utilizing open data science, cross-disciplinary collaborations, information systems, and citizen science, we can forge stronger partnerships between science and industry and improve our readiness as a society to mitigate space weather impacts. The objective of this manuscript is to raise awareness of these concepts as we approach a solar maximum that coincides with an increasingly technology-dependent society, and introduce a unique way of approaching space weather through the lens of a risk and resiliency framework that can be used to further assess areas of improvement in the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reassessing long-standing meteorological records: an example using the national hottest day in Ireland

This analysis highlights the potential value in reanalysing early national meteorological records from around the world. These were oftentimes measured via techniques that preceded standardisation of instrumentation and methods of observation and thus could be subject to considerable biases and uncertainties. This analysis uses the techniques pioneered by WMO record assessment teams. The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. The original observational record however no longer exists. Given that Ireland is now the only country in Europe to have a national heat record that was set in the 19th century, a reassessment of the verity of this record is both timely and valuable. The present analysis undertakes a fundamental reassessment of the plausibility of the 1887 temperature record using methods similar to those used to assess various weather extremes under WMO auspices over recent years. Specifically, we undertake an inter-station reassessment using sparse available records and make recourse to the new and improved 20CRv3 sparse-input reanalysis product. Neither surrounding available stations nor the reanalysis offer substantive support for the Kilkenny record of 33.3 °C being correct. Moreover, recent data rescue efforts have uncovered several earlier extreme values, one of which exceeds the Kilkenny value (33.5 °C on 16 July 1876 recorded at the Phoenix Park). However, the sparsity of early observational networks, a distinct lack of synoptic support from 20CRv3 for many of the extreme heat values, and the fact that these measurements were obtained using non-standard exposures lead us to conclude that there is grossly insufficient evidence to support any of these 19th century extremes as robust national heat record candidates. Data from the early 20th century onwards benefit from a denser network of stations undertaking measurements in a more standardised manner, many under the direct auspices of Met Éireann and its predecessors, adhering to WMO guidance and protocols. This enables more robust cross-checking of records. We argue that the Met Éireann-recognised 20th century heat record from Boora in 1976 is verified as the most plausible robust national temperature record based upon the synoptic situation and comparisons with nearby neighbouring stations. This measurement of 32.5°C thus likely constitutes the highest reliably recorded temperature measurement in the Republic of Ireland. Ultimately, the formal decision on any reassessment and reassignment of the national record rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals

The Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals (GHEP) provide universal resources to support high-quality work and a skilled, credentialed workforce for home energy upgrades. GHEP incorporates input from more than 2,000 home performance industry members and draws on 45 years of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) weatherization experience to provide a high-quality baseline across states, agencies, employers, employees, and homeowners.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evidence for carbon dioxide removal via enhanced rock weathering with steel slag, though not basalt, in a midwestern U.S. field trial

Enhanced weathering is an emergent pathway for permanent atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, despite a dramatic increase in academic and commercial research, there remain relatively few published examples of field evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of enhanced weathering. Here, we present results from a three-year field trial that evaluated steel slag and crushed basalt applied as amendments in a conventional agricultural system in the Midwestern United States. Steel slag applied to initially acidic soil increased porewater pH and alkalinity and increased soil pH and Ca-saturation. Together, changes in porewater chemistry and soil properties provide strong evidence for steel slag weathering and CDR. However, steel slag applied to soils with a neutral initial pH did not generate significant changes in soil or porewater chemistry. In addition, coarse-grained crushed basalt did not generate significant change in any of the soils. Strong acid effects were apparent in all 3 years of monitoring soil porewater chemistry. Overall, our results demonstrate clear evidence of CDR from applying steel slag amendments to acidic cropland soils while also highlighting the difficulty of greenhouse gas reduction accounting from enhanced weathering and the variable outcomes that can occur depending on feedstock and soil type.

Geosciences↗

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Relationships among diurnal variations of polar night cloud, precipitation, surface temperatures, and the fair-weather return current of the global electric circuit (GEC)

Over the past five years (June 2017-current), the vertical electric field (E z ) as well as numerous cloud, precipitation and radiation properties have been monitored at the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DOE ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) field site. Comparisons between the composite diurnal averaged fair-weather E z , and composite ceilometer derived cloud base height during the polar night, reveal a significant correlation between the parameters (r = 0.62), supporting previous studies that there is high correlation between local electric field and cloud properties. With the use of extensive instrumentation at the site, such as the Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL), Ka-band Zenith Radar (KAZR), ceilometer, SKYRAD, Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP), among others, this study provides a more comprehensive examination of the diurnal cycle of cloud and precipitation properties along with the localized fair-weather return current of the larger Global Electric Circuit (GEC) system. Comparisons between the composite diurnal averaged fair-weather E z , and cloud thickness, maximum column backscatter, and precipitation particle counts all show similar diurnal variability during the polar night, indicating that during the largest magnitude fair weather E z time periods, clouds bases tend to be higher, clouds are thicker, have a larger column backscatter, and display more precipitating particles. Furthermore, a slight diurnal variability in the polar night surface temperature was found to be highly correlated (r = 0.87) to the longwave downwelling irradiance measured by SKYRAD, indicating that the variations in the physical properties of local clouds could modulate the diurnal polar night surface temperature variability on the order of 0.5 °C/day. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the importance and global nature of the GEC system, with the global aggregate of thunderstorms and electrified clouds potentially influencing polar night cloud properties as well as diurnal wintertime polar surface temperature variation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Permafrost Thawing Enhances Sulfide Oxidation

Permafrost degradation is altering biogeochemical processes throughout the Arctic. Thaw-induced changes in organic matter transformations and mineral weathering reactions are impacting fluxes of inorganic carbon (IC) and alkalinity (ALK) in Arctic rivers. However, the net impact of these changing fluxes on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO 2 ) is relatively unconstrained. Resolving this uncertainty is important as thaw-driven changes in the fluxes of IC and ALK could produce feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. Enhanced production of sulfuric acid through sulfide oxidation is particularly poorly quantified despite its potential to remove ALK from the ocean-atmosphere system and increase pCO 2 , producing a positive feedback leading to more warming and permafrost degradation. In this work, we quantified weathering in the Koyukuk River, a major tributary of the Yukon River draining discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska, based on water and sediment samples collected near the village of Huslia in summer 2018. Using measurements of major ion abundances and sulfate (SO 4 2- ) sulfur ( 34 S/ 32 S) and oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O) isotope ratios, we employed the MEANDIR inversion model to quantify the relative importance of a suite of weathering processes and their net impact on pCO 2 . Calculations found that approximately 80% of SO 4 2- in mainstem samples derived from sulfide oxidation with the remainder from evaporite dissolution. Moreover, 34 S/ 32 S ratios, 13 C/ 12 C ratios of dissolved IC, and sulfur X-ray absorption spectra of mainstem, secondary channel, and floodplain pore fluid and sediment samples revealed modest degrees of microbial sulfate reduction within the floodplain. Weathering fluxes of ALK and IC result in lower values of pCO 2 over timescales shorter than carbonate compensation (~10 4 yr) and, for mainstem samples, higher values of pCO 2 over timescales longer than carbonate compensation but shorter than the residence time of marine (~10 7 yr). Furthermore, the absolute concentrations of and Mg 2+ in the Koyukuk River, as well as the ratios of SO 4 2- and Mg 2+ to other dissolved weathering products, have increased over the past 50 years. Through analogy to similar trends in the Yukon River, we interpret these changes as reflecting enhanced sulfide oxidation due to ongoing exposure of previously frozen sediment and changes in the contributions of shallow and deep flow paths to the active channel. Overall, these findings confirm that sulfide oxidation is a substantial outcome of permafrost degradation and that the sulfur cycle responds to permafrost thaw with a timescale-dependent feedback on warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Roots Supply Reactivity and Enhance Silicate Weathering in the Bedrock Vadose Zone

In upland environments, roots commonly extend deep below soil into partially saturated bedrock. This Bedrock Vadose Zone (BVZ) has been shown to store and circulate water, host organic carbon respiration and serve as a critical source of rock-derived nutrients. However, the extent to which deep roots influence chemical weathering rates remains poorly understood. Here, we report 4 years of depth-resolved major ion chemistry over a 16-m thick BVZ hosting a deep rhizosphere in a catchment subject to a Mediterranean climate. These data allow development and validation of a reactive transport model (RTM), revealing that the timescales of water storage and drainage in the BVZ are sufficient to facilitate substantial chemical weathering of the shale bedrock. However, observed solute concentrations are only reproduced by the RTM when we explicitly include measured rates of CO 2(g) production meters below soil driven by the deeply rooted forest. By combining direct observations and a process-based RTM we conclude that the carbon respiration promoted by deep roots significantly enhances chemical weathering rates in the BVZ, constituting 43% ± 3% of total solute flux from the base of the BVZ to the water table.

Osorio‐Leon, Ivan D. [University of Illinois Urban↗

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Defining the 50-Year Module: Luck, Design, or Both?

Poster presenting a new Duramat project that will develop a science-based definition of a "50-year solar panel" by combining reliability data, climate risks, design choices, and long-term cost analysis. The work aims to clarify what is needed to enable longer-lasting, high-value solar systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

REopt for Resilient Buildings: Leveraging Energy Efficiency and Distributed Energy Resources for Resilience Solutions

Community resilience hubs are locally identified and community-serving facilities that provide residents year-round access to support resources. During extreme weather, they can reduce the burden on emergency response teams by supplying power before, during, and after grid outages through onsite energy systems. This presentation analyzes how NREL's REopt tool can leverage energy efficiency, distributed generation, and storage resources to ensure critical community facilities are online when they are needed most. We showcase the tool's capabilities and application through a case study that focuses on achieving resilience for critical facilities in Manatee County.

better buildings↗

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The relative importance of building design parameters in reducing energy use and sensible heat release from buildings in light of forecasted future weather data and building coverage ratio

Buildings typically have a 60-to-75-year lifespan before they require significant maintenance or modifications. However, most builders evaluate the performance of their new buildings using whole-building energy simulation tools based on the current typical meteorological year (TMY) file or actual meteorological year. The energy use consumption and sensible heat release pattern observed from buildings could potentially change based on shifting global climates. Therefore, the recommended energy-efficiency design parameters might also change during these periods. In this study, we evaluate the role of different building design parameters, such as material reflectivity, HVAC COP, and insulation values, on building energy usage and sensible heat release from buildings with different building coverage ratios (BCR), based on the current and future weather file TMY (fTMY) for the middle of the century (2040–2060). The role of sensible heat release from buildings is not accounted for accurately while estimating building energy usage in most whole-building energy simulations. The study conducts a series of whole-building energy simulation analyses using EnergyPlus to evaluate the role of different design parameters based on TMY and fTMY weather conditions. The analysis is conducted for two hot desert climatic cities: Phoenix (USA) and Abu Dhabi (UAE). The results show that, for the base case in a future climate, the sensible heat release is reduced by an average of 30% due to the reduced delta T between the surface and ambient air. Further, the results show an increase in total energy consumption by 5% annually. The results also show that, for buildings with traditional coatings, shorter buildings release more heat than taller buildings. On the other hand, for buildings with reflective paints, shorter buildings release less heat than taller buildings. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and builders to better understand the relative role of different building design parameters while constructing new and retrofitting existing buildings.

Alhazmi, Mansour [King Fahd University of Petroleu↗