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DOE OSTI2022

Macro Analysis to Estimate Electric Vehicles Fast-Charging Infrastructure Requirements in Small Urban Areas

Electric vehicles (EVs) are known to reduce emissions and fossil fuel dependency. However, the limited range, long charging time, and inadequate charging infrastructure have hampered the adoption of EVs. The current EV charging infrastructure planning studies and tools require detailed information, extensive resources, and skills that can be a significant barrier to urban areas for finding the required charging infrastructure to support a targeted EV market share. This study generates regression models to estimate the number of direct current fast charging stations and the chargers to support the EV charging demand for urban areas. These models provide macro-level estimates of the required infrastructure investment in urban areas, which can be easily implemented by policy-makers and city planners. This study incorporates data obtained from applying a disaggregate optimization-based charger placement model, developed recently by the same authors, for multiple case studies to generate the required data to calibrate the macro-level models, in the state of Michigan. This simulated data set includes the number of charging stations and chargers for each market share, technology advancement scenario, and the transportation network topology. The results show that the number of charging stations reduces with battery size and charging power and increases with EV market share and the road network lane length. The number of chargers reduces with charging power, whereas it increases with battery size, EV market share, and vehicle miles traveled in the system. The model developed here can be applied to any state having urban characteristics and weather conditions similar to Michigan.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

NETL Direct Air Capture Center

In 2022 Congress authorized the $25M National Energy Technology Laboratory Direct Air Capture Center. The facility will be specifically targeted at accelerating the commercialization of technologies beyond the conceptual stage which have not yet reached full pilot-scale (TRL 3 to 6). The ability to operate over a wide range of conditions will help the developers to understand how their technologies respond in different climates, from summer to winter and arid to tropical. NETL recognizes that DAC technology is still early in its evolution, and a wide variety of highly varied technologies are being explored. The Center will be designed with substantial flexibility to accommodate the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Testing systems at three scales will be included: lab-scale systems designed to examine the long-term stability of DAC materials, bench-scale module testing systems capable of probing flow dynamics, and small pilot-scale skid rooms able to test prototype DAC units under a wide variety of climate conditions. The NETL DAC Center will feature dedicated engineering, technician, scientific and logistical support for experimental system design, installation, operation of experiments, and interpretation of results for projects including but not limited to kinetics of absorption/desorption, thermal duty, and post-mortem elemental characterization to understand degradation. The NETL DAC Center projects will also have access to dedicated process modeling and analysis to evaluate the technoeconomic aspects of new technologies. NETL’s Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) team, the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), and the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) are all potential collaborators with NETL’s testing partners from industry, academia, and other research institutions. NETL also has world class capabilities in device scale modeling (i.e., MFIX) that will be available to help design more efficient contactors and optimize unique internal configurations that can be realized by advanced manufacturing. The talk will cover the design and capabilities of the center, the planned availability, and feedback will be solicited from the audience on DAC testing needs.

Luebke, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating commercialization of direct air capture technology

In 2022 Congress authorized the $25M National Energy Technology Laboratory Direct Air Capture Center. The facility will be specifically targeted at accelerating the commercialization of technologies beyond the conceptual stage which have not yet reached full pilot-scale (TRL 3 to 6). The ability to operate over a wide range of conditions will help the developers to understand how their technologies respond in different climates, from summer to winter and arid to tropical. NETL recognizes that DAC technology is still early in its evolution, and a wide variety of highly varied technologies are being explored. The Center will be designed with substantial flexibility to accommodate the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Testing systems at three scales will be included: lab-scale systems designed to examine the long-term stability of DAC materials, bench-scale module testing systems capable of probing flow dynamics, and small pilot-scale skid rooms able to test prototype DAC units under a wide variety of climate conditions. The NETL DAC Center will feature dedicated engineering, technician, scientific and logistical support for experimental system design, installation, operation of experiments, and interpretation of results for projects including but not limited to kinetics of absorption/desorption, thermal duty, and post-mortem elemental characterization to understand degradation. The NETL DAC Center projects will also have access to dedicated process modeling and analysis to evaluate the technoeconomic aspects of new technologies. NETL’s Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) team, the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), and the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) are all potential collaborators with NETL’s testing partners from industry, academia, and other research institutions. NETL also has world class capabilities in device scale modeling (i.e., MFIX) that will be available to help design more efficient contactors and optimize unique internal configurations that can be realized by advanced manufacturing. The talk will cover the design and capabilities of the center, the planned availability, and feedback will be solicited from the audience on DAC testing needs.

Luebke, David↗
DOE OSTI2017

Toward Rapid Transient Identification and Characterization of Kilonovae

With the increasing sensitivity of advanced gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, the first joint detection of an electromagnetic and GW signal from a compact binary merger will hopefully happen within this decade. However, current GW likelihood sky areas span ∼100--1000 deg{sup 2}, and thus it is a challenging task to identify which, if any, transient corresponds to the GW event. In this study, we make a comparison between recent kilonova/macronova light-curve models for the purpose of assessing potential light-curve templates for counterpart identification. We show that recent analytical and parameterized models for these counterparts result in qualitative agreement with more complicated radiative transfer simulations. Our analysis suggests that with improved light-curve models with smaller uncertainties it will become possible to extract information about ejecta properties and binary parameters directly from the light-curve measurement. Even tighter constraints are obtained in cases for which GW and kilonova parameter estimation results are combined. It will therefore be important to make comparisons and potentially combine parameter estimation with the kilonova and GW results. However, to be prepared for upcoming detections, more realistic kilonova models are needed. These will require numerical relativity with more detailed microphysics, better radiative transfer simulations, and a better understanding of the underlying nuclear physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expanded Capabilities and Opportunities for Virtual Beamline Code

In the 25 years since LLNL broke ground on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) - a cornerstone of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Stockpile Stewardship Program - the NIF and Photon Science (NIF&PS) Directorate has steadily pushed the boundaries of laser physics, nonlinear optics, and photonics in service of inertial confinement fusion experiments, and advanced photon sources development. Beyond the 192 beamlines of the primary laser facility with its world-record energy and fusion yields, NIF&PS capabilities have expanded to include chirped-pulse amplification, kilojoule petawatt-class short-pulse systems to generate hard x-ray radiographic probes, high-average power lasers as secondary sources for generation or wake field particle acceleration along directed energy applications, and other scientific pursuits. The Computing Directorate partners with NIF&PS on numerous projects and technologies from diagnostic measurements and high performance control systems to data analysis, information technology infrastructure, and scientific simulation code development. “This strong collaboration enables cutting-edge science, particularly with regard to physics-based modeling and simulation,” says physicist Jean-Michel Di Nicola. One crucial capability for NIF&PS is the Virtual Beamline (VBL) laser simulation code. It can model all the major laser physics and technology involved in the design optimization, commissioning, and operations of advanced laser architectures from tabletop to NIF-scale. VBL provides researchers with high-fidelity models and high-resolution calculations of laser performance predictions—including for the entire NIF laser system, the Advanced Radiographic Capability, parts of the High Repetition-Rate Advanced Petawatt Laser System laser delivered to the Czech Republic, and the Optical Science Laser. After more than two decades of experimentally verified physics and computing enhancements, this unique workhorse code is wrapping up another major milestone: migration from Java to C++ with a flurry of user interface and optimization features, as well as laser physics and high-resolution enhancements thanks to parallel execution on Livermore Computing platforms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-F-207-03: Dosimetric Effect of the Position of Arms in Torso CT Scan with Tube Current Modulation

Purpose: To evaluate the patient organ dose differences between the arms-raised and arms-lowered postures in Torso multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scan protocols with tube current modulation (TCM). Methods: Patient CT organ doses were simulated using the Monte Carlo method with human phantoms and a validated CT scanner model. A set of adult human phantoms with arms raised and arms lowered postures were developed using advanced BREP-based mesh surface geometries. Organ doses from routine Torso scan protocols such as chest, abdomen-pelvis, and CAP scans were simulated. The organ doses differences caused by two different posutres were investigated when tube current modulation (TCM) were applied during the CT scan. Results: With TCM applied, organ doses of all the listed organs of arms-lowered posture phantom are larger than those of arms raised phantom. The dose difference for most of the organs or tissues are larger than 50%, and the skin doses difference for abdomen-pelvis scan even reaches 112.03%. This is due to the fact that the tube current for patient with arms-lowered is much higher than for the arms raised posture. Conclusion: Considering CT scan with TCM, which is commonly applied clinically, patients who could not raise their arms will receive higher radiation dose than the arms raised patient, with dose differences for some tissues such as the skin being larger than 100%. This is due to the additional tube current necessary to penetrate the arms while maintaining consistent image quality. National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.11475047)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Physics of Gain Mechanisms in a Self-Amplified Spontaneous Emission Free-Electron Laser

This is the final report for the DoE BES contract DE-FG02-07ER46272. This grant began under a title that gives its history in a few words: The Physics of Gain Mechanisms in a Self-Amplified Spontaneous Emission Free-Electron Laser. At the time of adopting this name, the UCLA Particle Beam Physics Laboratory (PBPL) was at the forefront of the first demonstrations of SASE FEL, giving the experimental basis for the 4th generation X-ray light source now exemplified by the LCLS, a remarkable generation of machines that have revolutionize nanoscale and ultrafast science. The grant title indicates that physical aspects of the FEL are of interest, and implies that progress requires comprehensive investigations. These aspects include: the physics and technology of high brightness electron beam generation, phase space manipulations, advanced beam diagnostics, state-of-the-art undulators, studies of FEL mode characteristics, as well as the introduction of new theoretical models and start-to-end simulations, all yielding a deep understanding of the SASE FEL. The latest period (2010-13) of BES grant support has been the most productive yet for the UCLA PBPL, and the extensive list of accomplishments is illustrative of our central contributions to advanced FEL research. We give a concise overview here and review our research results in further detail below. In FEL and ultrafast beam physics, we have experimentally investigated: production of helical beams and FEL modes with orbital angular momentum; chirp-taper single-spike FEL gain; new FROG techniques optimized for FEL, introduced coherent imaging of beam profiles using transition radiation; and demonstrated a next generation cryoundulator. We have performed deep theoretical studies of these phenomena and other advanced FEL physics concepts, such as the space-charge amplifier. In high brightness beams, we have: introduced a new class of hybrid photoinjector for <100 fs beam production; developed new approaches to self-shaped ellipsoidal beams; used nonlinear plasma oscillations to create beam pulse trains; tested new plasmonic, high quantum efficiency cathodes, and developed new methods of beam measurement with um spatial/sub-fs temporal resolution. In ultrafast imaging, we have: developed advanced electro-optic timing systems, performed the 1st pump-probe study using single shot UED, demonstrated continuously time-resolved UED with RF deflection; made initial use of inverse Compton scattering (ICS) X-ray sources in application through single-shot inline phase contrast imaging, established single-shot X-ray diffraction, and observed ICS high harmonic generation and redshifting due to nonlinear effects. In 5th generation light source research, we have developed the techniques of narrowband, very high power coherent Cerenkov radiation sources based on dielectric wakefield devices. This work is represented by numerous publications in leading journals: e.g. Nature Physics, Physical Review Letters, Applied Physics Letters. The PBPL program’s influence on the field also extends to organization of the electron beam applications community; we have organized the first international UED workshops and the initial two meetings dedicated to 5th generation light source.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling of Convective Storms Driven by Real-time Analytics

Convective storms vertically transport water vapor and condensate from Earth’s surface to the upper troposphere. Life on Earth is fundamentally linked to this transport which determines the hydrological cycle, and the intensity of severe weather responsible for the destruction of life and property. Despite advances in high-resolution modeling and better observational capabilities, the scientific community continues to be confronted with knowledge gaps about convective storms that limit our predictive capabilities. The ongoing developments in the high-resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), large eddy simulations, and AI-based analytics to evaluate uncertainties are expected to provide a comprehensive framework for new scientific discovery. The model-experiment (MODEX) approach suggests that the aforementioned advancements in model development and AI-based inference techniques should be complemented by similar advancements in the experimental (observational) side so that the former does not outstrip the ability of the latter to provide meaningful constraints. What are the recent advancements in observations that will provide the necessary leap forward in improving our predictive capabilities? To address this question, we propose a new experimental paradigm called Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS) that capitalizes on advancements in communications (5G), computational resources (edge/fog computing), sensor capabilities, and machine learning (ML) and AI techniques (Kollias et al., 2020). The MAAS framework allows for the collection of higher spatiotemporal resolution and quality observations of convective storms than is traditionally possible. The MAAS framework is scalable and applicable to atmospheric observatories such as those operated by the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Potosi Reservoir Modeling; History and Recommendations

As a part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO₂) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from two projects: the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium in Macon County, Illinois, as well as data from the Illinois – Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration (IL-ICCS) project funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the Verification Well 1 (VW1) and the Injection Well (CCS1), structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for the Potosi Formation. The intention was for two million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of CO₂ to be injected for 20 years into the Potosi Formation. In 2013, updated reservoir models for the Cambrian Potosi Formation were evaluated. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the CCS1, VW1, and Verification Well 2 (VW2) wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from a larger 3D seismic survey, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. The objective is to simulate the injection of CO₂ at a rate 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 million tonnes per annum [MTPA]) for 30 years 106 million tons (96 MT total) into the Potosi Formation. The Potosi geomodeling efforts have evolved from using data from a single well in 2010 to the inclusion of data from three wells in 2013 which largely leverage the porosity and permeability logs plus knowledge of lost circulation zones. The first Potosi model (Potosi Geobody Model 2010) attempted to use the available seismic inversion data to inform the geomodel and predict vugular zones in advance of drilling VW1. Lost circulation zones in VW1 came in as the geologists predicted. The model was not implemented in subsequent simulation work. To date, reservoir models used for flow simulation work have relied predominately on Gaussian distributed properties (porosity and permeability) and have employed a single injection well. Potosi Model 2013b incorporated the new VW2 logs, and exhibited an extra level of sophistication by delineating the vugular intervals. This method added further realism that likely represents the best reservoir approximation to date. Where the 2010 reservoir models were 10 by 10 mi (16 by 16 km) in area, the 2013 models were expanded in size to 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km). The latest reservoir simulations show that a minimum of four injectors might be required to meet target injection rates. Still, there is data that requires further scrutiny and modeling methodologies that require testing for the Potosi Formation. This work is currently ongoing, and the next phase of the reservoir modeling intends to implement valuable data like porosity derived from seismic inversion, seismically derived geobodies, or a combination of both to further define vugular zones and the porosity distribution within the Potosi Formation. Understanding the dual porosity, dual permeability character of the Potosi remains the greatest challenge in representing this formation. Further analysis of the FMI* fullbore formation microimager data may aid in assessing this uncertainty. The Potosi Formation is indeed an interesting formation, and recommendations to further characterize it are included in the following list: - Data acquisition to identify the vugs permeability, distribution, and interconnectivity could be considered to perform a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi Formation injectivity and capacity. This could be achieved by performing an injection test on a vugular interval to determine the vugs permeability, and an interference test between wells to evaluate the local vugs extent and interconnectivity. - A thorough study of the available FMI data may reveal specifics on estimating the vug to matrix ratio. This estimate could be used to further condition the porosity distribution. Porosity logs alone might underestimate the formation’s porosity associated with vugs. Porosity mapping derived from the seismic inversion could also be used in the succeeding task to characterize the lateral porosity distribution within the reservoir. This could involve the geobody methodology previously attempted in 2010. With or without seismic inversion porosity mapping, it is worth exploring whether increased lateral heterogeneity plays a significant role in Potosi injectivity. Investigations on vugular, dolomitic outcrops suggest that there may be significantly greater lateral heterogeneity than what has been modeled here. - The FMI data also reveals the presence of and helps describe open fractures. The presence of fractures will further enhance the formation’s permeability. The task of leveraging this data in the geomodeling effort still remains. Under the best of circumstances, this data describing open fractures may be combined with seismic attributes to delineate fracture corridors. Fracture modeling would certainly add another layer of sophistication to the model. Its contribution and applicability remain to be explored. - Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. - Currently there is no fracture gradient data available for the Potosi in the Decatur project area. The acquisition of the fracture pressure data could be considered to determine an appropriate maximum allowable bottomhole injection pressure. This would allow the evaluation of injectivity and the required number of wells in a more precise manner. - Special core analysis (SCAL) to determine the relative permeability and capillary pressure of the vugs and matrix could be considered to have a better estimation of the reservoir injectivity and plume extent. - Formation water sampling and analysis could be considered for the Potosi to estimate the water salinity and properties. A vertical flow performance evaluation could be considered for the succeeding task to determine the appropriate tubing size, the required injection tubing head pressure, and to investigate whether the corresponding well injection rate falls within the tubing erosional velocity limit. - A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Smith, Valerie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Status of EM Pump Modeling Capability for VTR

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. Most recently, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been selected as the safety analysis software for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), a new materials testing Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) to be built by the Department of Energy. In order to support analysis of the VTR, which will utilize ElectroMagnetic (EM) pumps as the primary coolant pumps, the development of new EM pump modeling capabilities has been initiated for SAS4/SASSYS-1. The new physics-based EM pump model captures systems-level transient performance based on equivalent circuit theory and is highly flexible to model a wide range of electromagnetic pumps of the three-phase linear induction type subject to changes in power supply and plant conditions. Within the equivalent circuit framework, two sub-models are developed to provide options for analysts both with and without a detailed geometric characterization of their pump such that minimal information is required to achieve a realistic working model, but specific details of a particular pump design may be captured if sufficient information is provided. In addition, heat generated from pump operation and its transport through the plant system can be modeled to better capture the behavior of certain transients. This paper will outline the model and derive the governing equations of the new EM pump model. An initial comparison between the simple EM pump model and experimental data is made. This comparison shows that the equivalent circuit model can capture pump performance, with greater accuracy near the rated conditions. In order to demonstrate the transient behavior of the new model, a simple transient with an EM pump replacing the centrifugal pumps in the Advanced Burner Test Reactor is included.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Status of EM Pump Modeling Capability for VTR

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. Most recently, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been selected as the safety analysis software for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), a new materials testing Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) to be built by the Department of Energy. In order to support analysis of the VTR, which will utilize ElectroMagnetic (EM) pumps as the primary coolant pumps, the development of new EM pump modeling capabilities has been initiated for SAS4/SASSYS-1. The new physics-based EM pump model captures systems-level transient performance based on equivalent circuit theory and is highly flexible to model a wide range of electromagnetic pumps of the three-phase linear induction type subject to changes in power supply and plant conditions. Within the equivalent circuit framework, two sub-models are developed to provide options for analysts both with and without a detailed geometric characterization of their pump such that minimal information is required to achieve a realistic working model, but specific details of a particular pump design may be captured if sufficient information is provided. In addition, heat generated from pump operation and its transport through the plant system can be modeled to better capture the behavior of certain transients. This paper will outline the model and derive the governing equations of the new EM pump model. An initial comparison between the simple EM pump model and experimental data is made. This comparison shows that the equivalent circuit model can capture pump performance, with greater accuracy near the rated conditions. In order to demonstrate the transient behavior of the new model, a simple transient with an EM pump replacing the centrifugal pumps in the Advanced Burner Test Reactor is included.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Fidelity Heavy-Duty Vehicle Modeling Using Sparse Telematics Data

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles consume a significant amount of energy due to their large size and mass, directly leading to vehicle operators prioritizing energy efficiency to reduce operational costs and comply with environmental regulations. One tool that can be used for the evaluation of energy efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles is the evaluation of energy efficiency using vehicle modeling and simulation. Simulation provides a path for energy efficiency improvement by allowing rapid experimentation of different vehicle characteristics on fuel consumption without the need for costly physical prototyping. The research presented in this paper focuses on using real-world, sparsely sampled telematics data from a large fleet of heavy-duty vehicles to create high-fidelity models for simulation. Samples in the telematics dataset are collected sporadically, resulting in sparse data with an infrequent and irregular sampling rate. Captured in the dataset was geospatial information, time series measurements, and vehicle-specific metadata from a subset of 96 vehicles from varied geographic regions across North America. A series of custom algorithms was developed to process vehicle data and derive both vehicle model input parameters and representative drive cycles. Derived models provide a basis on which to simulate real-world vehicles and iterate on vehicle aerodynamics, auxiliary power loads, transmission shift schedules, and other parameters to achieve reduced fuel consumption and increase energy efficiency. Notably, these models were developed without the use of expensive field data collection, using only data collected through fleet telematics. Processed representative drive cycles are used to validate the fuel economy of derived models. The models developed through this research allow for more representative vehicle simulations with increased flexibility regarding vehicle-to-vehicle variations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Near Real-Time Nondestructive Active Inspection Technologies Utilizing Delayed γ-Rays and Neutrons for Advanced Safeguards

In this two year project, the research team investigated how delayed γ-rays from short-lived fission fragments detected in the short interval between irradiating pulses can be exploited for advanced safeguards technologies. This program contained experimental and modeling efforts. The experimental effort measured the emitted spectra, time histories and correlations of the delayed γ-rays from aqueous solutions and solid targets containing fissionable isotopes. The modeling effort first developed and benchmarked a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation technique based on these experiments. The benchmarked simulations were then extended to other safeguards scenarios, allowing comparisons to other advanced safeguards technologies and to investigate combined techniques. Ultimately, the experiments demonstrated the possible utility of actively induced delayed γ-ray spectroscopy for fissionable material assay.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Technologies to Reactors: Enabling Accelerated Deployment of Nuclear Energy Systems Workshop Report

Nuclear energy provides almost 20% of the electric power in the United States, producing power with high availability while accounting for 63% of our carbon-free energy production. While we have the capacity to expand this clean power source within the United States, we have not built any advanced reactor plant designs in our rapidly evolving electricity generation market, where cost is a major driver. With construction cost and plant safety being major elements of cost for new nuclear, advanced reactor technologies could provide lower cost, safer, carbon-free, grid-resilient energy sources for the US electricity grid. When the current fleet of nuclear reactors was originally designed, many of today’s science and technology (S&T) advances were not available. Today these advances show great promise for transforming our national approach to nuclear reactor design. Other industries are capitalizing on rapid innovations in materials, manufacturing, sensors and control systems, and high-fidelity modeling and simulation (M&S), along with data analytics to provide lower costs in manufacturing and extended ranges of operations. In the nuclear industry, these innovations can translate into similar benefits as well as rapid design and qualification of advanced nuclear fuels. Effectively implementing these types of innovations could position American expert leadership to compete more fully in the international nuclear energy market. In July of 2018, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy sponsored a workshop to address these possibilities: “Technologies to Reactors: Enabling Accelerated Deployment of Nuclear Energy Systems.” Workshop participants explored how modern and emerging S&T can be used to transform the approach to nuclear reactor design, licensing, and operation to accelerate deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. More than 80 experts from federal agencies, academia, and industry participated in the workshop to develop consensus on priority technology directions (PTDs) and recommend technology and deployment initiatives to explore and demonstrate key benefits for the nuclear community.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Improving Heat Pump Water Heater Effeciency by Avoiding Electric Resistance Heater Use

Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are a promising technology that can decrease the domestic hot water energy consumption over an electric resistance storage water heater by up to 50%. Heat pump water heaters are really two water heaters in one; they can heat water by using a heat pump or by using electric resistance elements. During large water draw events the HPWHs will use the resistance elements that decrease the overall efficiency of the units. ORNL proposed and tested an advanced control algorithm that anticipates the large water draw events and appropriately sets-up the temperature of the tank water using only the heat pump. With sufficient energy stored in the tank at the elevated temperature, the large water draw is provided for and electric resistance use is avoided. Simulations using a validated heat pump water heater model, and measured water draw data from 25 homes, show average yearly energy savings of 9% for the advanced control algorithm. If the advanced control algorithm perfectly predicts the large water draw events then the savings increase to 19%. This discrepancy could be due to a lack of predictability of water draw patterns in some homes, or the water draw forecasting algorithm could be improved.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗