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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Readout models for BaFBr 0.85 I 0.15 :Eu image plates

The linearity of the photostimulated luminescence process makes repeated image-plate scanning a viable technique to extract more dynamic range. In order to obtain a response estimate, two semi-empirical models for the readout fading of an image plate are introduced; they relate the depth distribution of activated photostimulated luminescence centers within an image plate to the recorded signal. Model parameters are estimated from image-plate scan series with BAS-MS image plates and the Typhoon FLA 7000 scanner for the hard x-ray image-plate diagnostic over a collection of experiments providing x-ray energy spectra whose approximate shape is a double exponential.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Effective Diffusion Coefficients in Mudrocks Using a Fractal Model and Small-Angle Neutron Scattering Measurements

The determination of effective diffusion coefficients of gases or solutes in the water–saturated pore space of mudrocks is time consuming and technically challenging. Yet, reliable values of effective diffusion coefficients are important to predict migration of hydrocarbon gases in unconventional reservoirs, dissipation of (explosive) gases through clay barriers in radioactive waste repositories, mineral alteration of seals to geological CO 2 storage reservoirs and contaminant migration through aquitards. In this study, small angle and very small angle neutron scattering techniques have been utilized to determine a range of transport properties in mudrocks, including porosity, pore size distributions and surface and volume fractal dimensions of pores and grains, from which diffusive transport parameters can be estimated. Using a fractal model derived from Archie's Law, we calculate effective diffusion coefficients from these parameters and compare them to laboratory–derived effective diffusion coefficients for CO 2 , H 2 , CH 4 and HTO on either the same or related mudrock samples. The samples include Opalinus Shale from the underground laboratory in Mont Terri, Switzerland; Boom Clay from a core drilled in Mol, Belgium and a marine claystone cored in Utah, USA. The predicted values were compared to laboratory diffusion measurements. The measured and modeled diffusion coefficients show good agreement, differing generally by less than factor 5. Furthermore, neutron or X–ray scattering analysis is therefore proposed as a novel method for fast, accurate estimation of effective diffusion coefficients in mudrocks, together with simultaneous measurement of multiple transport parameters including porosity, pore size distributions and surface areas, important for (reactive) transport modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The mass distribution of quasars in optical time-domain surveys

The determination of supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses is the key to understanding the host galaxy build-up and the SMBH mass assembly histories. The SMBH masses of non-local quasars are frequently estimated via the single-epoch virial black-hole mass estimators, which may suffer from significant biases. Here we demonstrate a new approach to infer the mass distribution of SMBHs in quasars by modelling quasar ultraviolet /optical variability. Here, our inferred black hole masses are systematically smaller than the virial ones by 0.3–0.6 dex; the ∼0.3 dex offsets are roughly consistent with the expected biases of the virial black-hole mass estimators. In the upcoming time-domain astronomy era, our methodology can be used to constrain the cosmic evolution of quasar mass distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

NONPARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION THROUGH DECONVOLUTION IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

The advent of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and availability of open source software made full hierarchical Bayesian analysis tractable and a popular choice in parameter estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, despite its theoretical attractiveness, the hierarchical Bayesian analysis is not without its problems. Two of the most prominent practical difficulties in applying hierarchical Bayes analysis in practice to analyze source-to-source variability, for example, is its sensitivity to the selection of the first-stage prior and dependence of the rate of convergence on the selection of the first-stage prior. The first-stage prior in hierarchical Bayesian analysis is usually assumed having a parametric form, often conjugate to the likelihood function (aleatory model). To facilitate convergence for hierarchical Bayes models, the first-stage prior is frequently set through empirical Bayes estimate, which can use available historical data to find the parameters of the first-stage prior. The paper discusses a new nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation and compare it to several well-known parametric estimates such as method of moments and maximum likelihood. The new nonparametric technique exploits the prior predictive distribution as integral equation and proceeds to solve it with respect to prior assuming the sampling data distribution and aleatory model are available. The discussion covers topics such as selection of aleatory model for future data, selection of regularization parameter, and density estimation for historical data. For comparison, the paper is using contrived as well as real-world data from utilities. Utilities data represent failure data with Poisson distribution used for aleatory model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Data-Driven and Model-Based Anomaly Detection Scheme for DER Operation: Preprint

This paper proposes a hybrid data and model-based anomaly detection for securing the operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids. Data-driven autoencoders (AE) are set up at the edge level by taking local DER data and detect anomalous operations by leveraging the reconstruction ability. In parallel, model-based state estimation (SE) is running at the system level by taking system models and measurements, the anomalies are identified by analyzing the measurements residual. The hybrid scheme preserves the benefits of both data-driven and model-based analysis and thus improves the robustness and accuracy of anomaly detection. It can be established by getting full use of the existing infrastructures in distribution grids. Numerical tests on a realistic distribution feeder in Southern California highlight the effectiveness as well as benefits of the proposed scheme.

anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying the impact of sub-grid surface wind variability on sea salt and dust emissions in CAM5

This paper evaluates the impact of sub-grid variability of surface wind on sea salt and dust emissions in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The basic strategy is to calculate emission fluxes multiple times, using different wind speed samples of a Weibull probability distribution derived from model-predicted grid-box mean quantities. In order to derive the Weibull distribution, the sub-grid standard deviation of surface wind speed is estimated by taking into account four mechanisms: turbulence under neutral and stable conditions, dry convective eddies, moist convective eddies over the ocean, and air motions induced by mesoscale systems and fine-scale topography over land. The contributions of turbulence and dry convective eddy are parameterized using schemes from the literature. Wind variabilities caused by moist convective eddies and fine-scale topography are estimated using empirical relationships derived from an operational weather analysis data set at 15 km resolution. The estimated sub-grid standard deviations of surface wind speed agree well with reference results derived from 1 year of global weather analysis at 15 km resolution and from two regional model simulations with 3 km grid spacing. The wind-distribution-based emission calculations are implemented in CAM5. In terms of computational cost, the increase in total simulation time turns out to be less than 3 %. Simulations at 2° resolution indicate that sub-grid wind variability has relatively small impacts (about 7 % increase) on the global annual mean emission of sea salt aerosols, but considerable influence on the emission of dust. Among the considered mechanisms, dry convective eddies and mesoscale flows associated with topography are major causes of dust emission enhancement. With all the four mechanisms included and without additional adjustment of uncertain parameters in the model, the simulated global and annual mean dust emission increase by about 50 % compared to the default model. By tuning the globally constant dust emission scale factor, the global annual mean dust emission, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes can be adjusted to the level of the default model, but the frequency distribution of dust emission changes, with more contribution from weaker wind events and less contribution from stronger wind events. Lastly, in Africa and Asia, the overall frequencies of occurrence of dust emissions increase, and the seasonal variations are enhanced, while the geographical patterns of the emission frequency show little change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Meandering Margin of the Meteorological Moist Tropics

Bimodally distributed column water vapor (CWV) indicates a well-defined moist regime in the Tropics, above a margin value near 48 kg m -2 in current climate (about 80% of column saturation). Maps reveal this margin as a meandering, sinuous synoptic contour bounding broad plateaus of the moist regime. Within these plateaus, convective storms of distinctly smaller convective and mesoscales occur sporadically. Satellite data composites across the poleward most margin reveal its sharpness, despite the crude averaging: precipitation doubles within 100 km, marked by both enhancement and deepening of cloudiness. Transported patches and filaments of the moist regime cause consequential precipitation events within and beyond the Tropics. Distinguishing synoptic flows that cross the margin from flows that $move$ the margin is made possible by a novel satellite-based Lagrangian CWV tendency estimate. Climate models do not reliably reproduce the observed bimodal distribution, so studying the moist mode's maintenance processes and the margin-zone air mass transformations, guided by the Lagrangian tendency product, might importantly constrain model moist process treatments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

STELLAR RADIAL VELOCITIES IN THE OLD OPEN CLUSTER M67 (NGC 2682). I. MEMBERSHIPS, BINARIES, AND KINEMATICS

We present results from 13776 radial-velocity (RV) measurements of 1278 candidate members of the old (4 Gyr) open cluster M67 (NGC 2682). The measurements are the results of a long-term survey that includes data from seven telescopes with observations for some stars spanning over 40 years. For narrow-lined stars, RVs are measured with precisions ranging from about 0.1 to 0.8 km s{sup −1}. The combined stellar sample reaches from the brightest giants in the cluster down to about 4 mag below the main-sequence turnoff (V=16.5), covering a mass range of about 1.34 M{sub ⊙} to 0.76 M{sub ⊙}. Spatially, the sample extends to a radus of 30 arcmin (7.4 pc in projection at a distance of 850 pc or 6–7 core radii). We find M67 to have a mean RV of +33.64 km s{sup −1} (with an internal precision of ±0.03 km s{sup −1}) well separated from the mean velocity of the field. For stars with ⩾3 measurements, we derive RV membership probabilities and identify RV variables, finding 562 cluster members, 142 of which show significant RV variability. We use these cluster members to construct a color–magnitude diagram and identify a rich sample of stars that lie far from the standard single star isochrone, including the well-known blue stragglers, sub-subgiants and yellow giants. These exotic stars have a binary frequency of (at least) 80%, more than three times that detected for stars in the remainder of the sample. We confirm that the cluster is mass segregated, finding the binaries to be more centrally concentrated than the single stars in our sample at the 99.8% confidence level (and at the 98.7% confidence level when only considering main-sequence stars). The blue stragglers are centrally concentrated as compared to the solar-type main-sequence single stars in the cluster at the 99.7% confidence level. Accounting for measurement precision, we derive an RV dispersion in M67 of 0.80 ± 0.04 km s{sup −1} for our sample of single main-sequence stars, subgiants and giants with V⩽15.5. When corrected for undetected binaries, this sample yields a true RV dispersion of 0.59{sub −0.06}{sup +0.07} km s{sup −1}. The radial distribution of the velocity dispersion is consistent with an isothermal distribution within our stellar sample. Using the cluster RV dispersion, we estimate a virial mass for the cluster of 2100{sub −550}{sup +610} M{sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hydrogen Effect on the Fatigue Crack Growth in Austenitic Stainless Steel Investigated by a New Method Based on Nanohardness Distribution

A new method of nanohardness distribution for investigating the hydrogen effect on the fatigue crack in austenitic stainless steels was developed. The nanohardness distribution around the fatigue crack tip is dependent on the plastic zone and different microstructures in materials. Nanoindentation could provide a possibility to quantitatively estimate the size of the plastic zone and to expressly identify the strain-induced α′ martensitic transformation around the fatigue crack tip. The results of measured nanohardness distribution reveal that hydrogen reduces the size of the estimated plastic zone around the fatigue crack tip, especially in the specimen tested in hydrogen gas environment, which is attributed to hydrogen-enhanced localized plasticity. Both hydrogen and α′ martensite greatly influence the nanohardness and the gradient of hydrogen concentration near the crack tip, which will have a significant effect on the fatigue crack growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gravitational Waves from Merging Intermediate-mass Black Holes. II. Event Rates at Ground-based Detectors

Based on a dynamical formation model of a supermassive black hole (SMBH), we estimate the expected observational profile of gravitational waves at ground-based detectors, such as KAGRA or advanced LIGO/VIRGO. Noting that the second generation of detectors have enough sensitivity from 10 Hz and up (especially with KAGRA owing to its location at less seismic noise), we are able to detect the ring-down gravitational wave of a BH with mass M<2×10{sup 3}M{sub ⊙}. This enables us to check the sequence of BH mergers to SMBHs via intermediate-mass BHs. We estimate the number density of galaxies from the halo formation model and estimate the number of BH mergers from the giant molecular cloud model assuming hierarchical growth of merged cores. At the designed KAGRA (and/or advanced LIGO/VIRGO), we find that the BH merger of its total mass M∼60M{sub ⊙} is at the peak of the expected mass distribution. With its signal-to-noise ratio ρ=10 (30), we estimate the event rate R∼200 (20) per year in the most optimistic case, and we also find that BH mergers in the range M<150M{sub ⊙} are R>1 per year for ρ=10. Thus, if we observe a BH with more than 100M{sub ⊙} in future gravitational-wave observations, our model naturally explains its source.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The ellipticity of galaxy cluster haloes from satellite galaxies and weak lensing

Here, we study the ellipticity of galaxy cluster haloes as characterized by the distribution of cluster galaxies and as measured with weak lensing. We use Monte Carlo simulations of elliptical cluster density profiles to estimate and correct for Poisson noise bias, edge bias and projection effects. We apply our methodology to 10 428 Sloan Digital Sky Survey clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm with richness above 20. We find a mean ellipticity =0.271 ± 0.002 (stat) ±0.031 (sys) corresponding to an axis ratio = 0.573 ± 0.002 (stat) ±0.039 (sys). We compare this ellipticity of the satellites to the halo shape, through a stacked lensing measurement using optimal estimators of the lensing quadrupole based on Clampitt and Jain (2016). We find a best-fitting axis ratio of 0.56 ± 0.09 (stat) ±0.03 (sys), consistent with the ellipticity of the satellite distribution. Thus, cluster galaxies trace the shape of the dark matter halo to within our estimated uncertainties. Finally, we restack the satellite and lensing ellipticity measurements along the major axis of the cluster central galaxy's light distribution. From the lensing measurements, we infer a misalignment angle with an root-mean-square of 30° ± 10° when stacking on the central galaxy. We discuss applications of halo shape measurements to test the effects of the baryonic gas and active galactic nucleus feedback, as well as dark matter and gravity. The major improvements in signal-to-noise ratio expected with the ongoing Dark Energy Survey and future surveys from Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Euclid, and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope will make halo shapes a useful probe of these effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gas Content and Kinematics in Clumpy, Turbulent Star-forming Disks

We present molecular gas-mass estimates for a sample of 13 local galaxies whose kinematic and star-forming properties closely resemble those observed in z ≈ 1.5 main-sequence galaxies. Plateau de Bure observations of the CO[1-0] emission line and Herschel Space Observatory observations of the dust emission both suggest molecular gas-mass fractions of ∼20%. Moreover, dust emission modeling finds T {sub dust} < 30 K, suggesting a cold dust distribution compared to their high infrared luminosity. The gas-mass estimates argue that z ∼ 0.1 DYNAMO galaxies not only share similar kinematic properties with high- z disks, but they are also similarly rich in molecular material. Pairing the gas-mass fractions with existing kinematics reveals a linear relationship between f {sub gas} and σ / v {sub c}, consistent with predictions from stability theory of a self-gravitating disk. It thus follows that high gas-velocity dispersions are a natural consequence of large gas fractions. We also find that the systems with the lowest t {sub dep} (∼0.5 Gyr) have the highest ratios of σ / v{sub c} and more pronounced clumps, even at the same high molecular gas fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure Validation of Graph Theory Model-Derived Cooling Rates in the Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing of ER70S-6 Steel

Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) enables high-rate fabrication of large metallic components, but spatial variations in thermal history can lead to microstructural heterogeneity that requires efficient process models to evaluate. This study evaluates whether cooling rates extracted from a graph theory model (GTM)-based thermal simulation are consistent with the microstructural evolution observed in an ER70S-6 WAAM wall. Thermal histories from the model were analyzed at selected build heights, and cooling rates were extracted from the final thermal excursion through the austenite phase field. Microstructures at corresponding locations were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) to quantify grain size distributions, and pearlite interlamellar spacing was used as an additional indicator of cooling behavior. The modeled cooling rates were highest near the substrate and generally decreased with build height, consistent with the observed reduction in the fine grain fraction and the progressive shift in the grain size distribution as build height increased. Pearlite spacing trends also supported the modeled cooling rate variation. These results indicate that GTM-derived thermal histories can be post-processed into metallurgically meaningful cooling rate estimates for WAAM steel builds and linked to dataset specific empirical grain size distribution relationships for process–thermal history–microstructure assessment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Structure of the Distant Kuiper Belt in a Nice Model Scenario

This work explores the orbital distribution of minor bodies in the outer Solar System emplaced as a result of a Nice model migration from the simulations of Brasser and Morbidelli. This planetary migration scatters a planetesimal disk from between 29 and 34 au and emplaces a population of objects into the Kuiper Belt region. From the 2:1 Neptune resonance and outward, the test particles analyzed populate the outer resonances with orbital distributions consistent with trans-Neptunian object (TNO) detections in semimajor axis, inclination, and eccentricity, while capture into the closest resonances is too efficient. The relative populations of the simulated scattering objects and resonant objects in the 3:1 and 4:1 resonances are also consistent with observed populations based on debiased TNO surveys, but the 5:1 resonance is severely underpopulated compared to population estimates from survey results. Scattering emplacement results in the expected orbital distribution for the majority of the TNO populations; however, the origin of the large observed population in the 5:1 resonance remains unexplained.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗