Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probing the conformal Calabrese-Cardy scaling with cold atoms

We demonstrate that current experiments using cold bosonic atoms trapped in one-dimensional optical lattices and designed to measure the second-order Rényi entanglement entropy S 2 can be used to verify detailed predictions of conformal field theory (CFT) and estimate the central charge c. We discuss the adiabatic preparation of the ground state at half filling and small hopping parameter J/U, where we expect a CFT with c = 1. We provide two complementary methods to estimate and subtract the classical entropy generated by the experimental preparation and imaging processes. We compare numerical calculations for the classical O(2) model with a chemical potential on a (1 + 1)-dimensional lattice, and the quantum Bose-Hubbard Hamiltonian implemented in the experiments. S 2 is very similar for the two models and follows closely the Calabrese-Cardy scaling, (c/8) ln (N s ) , for N s sites with open boundary conditions, provided that the large subleading corrections are taken into account.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Point Kinetics Model for Estimating Neutron Multiplication of Bare Uranium Metal in Tagged Neutron Measurements

An extension of the point kinetics model is developed in this paper to describe the neutron multiplicity response of a bare uranium object under interrogation by an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium (D-T) measurement system. This extended model is used to estimate the total neutron multiplication of the uranium. Both MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and data from active interrogation measurements of highly enriched and depleted uranium geometries are used to evaluate the potential of this method and to identify the sources of systematic error. The detection efficiency correction for measured coincidence response is identified as a large source of systematic error. If the detection process is not considered, results suggest that the method can estimate total multiplication to within 13% of the simulated value. Values for multiplicity constants in the point kinetics equations are sensitive to enrichment due to (n, xn) interactions by D-T neutrons and can introduce another significant source of systematic bias. This can theoretically be corrected if isotopic composition is known a priori. Finally, the spatial dependence of multiplication is also suspected of introducing further systematic bias for high multiplication uranium objects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Improving the absolute positioning accuracy of robot manipulators

The absolute positioning accuracy of robot manipulator can be increased substantially by updating the nominal link parameters in the control software. This paper presents a general method to estimate the link parameter errors for any serial link manipulator (i.e., n links, and any combination of revolute and prismatic joints). The parameters are estimated through a linear kinematic model which relates the link bias errors to the end-effector positioning error. Only end-effector measurements are required instead of individual link measurements to implement this method.

Hayati, S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced measurement techniques in quantum Monte Carlo: The permutation matrix representation approach

In a typical finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation, estimators for simple static observables such as specific heat and magnetization are known. With a great deal of system-specific manual labor, one can sometimes also derive more complicated non-local or even dynamic observable estimators. In contrast, we show that arbitrary static observables can be estimated within the permutation matrix representation (PMR) flavor for any Hamiltonian. We then generalize these results to general imaginary-time correlation functions and non-trivial integrated susceptibilities thereof. Finally, we demonstrate the practical versatility of our method by estimating various non-local, random observables for the transverse-field Ising model on a square lattice and a toy random model.

Permutation matrix representation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Estimation of Strain Using Spatial Correlation Functions

Ex-situ estimation of strains from deformed micrographs is not possible as there are no persistent features which can be tracked. Two point spatial statistics enable the rigorous quantification of spatial patterns in heterogeneous media. In this paper, we propose a novel method for estimating strains directly from dissimilar micrographs using a continuum mechanics approach. Rather than operating directly on images from sequential frames, as is done in digital image correlation, we operate on different microstructure realizations. This is made possible by comparing the spatial autocorrelation maps of deformed and undeformed micrographs rather than direct comparison of images. Additionally, a Bayesian framework is proposed for quantifying uncertainty. We first illustrate the efficacy of this method on speckle pattern images from digital image correlation experiments. Then, we demonstrate that the method is capable of operating on dissimilar micrographs using deformed synthetic binary microstructures. Finally, we present a case study on polycrystalline additively manufactured 316L deformed via tension. The proposed method works well and we discuss implications and limitations of the presented work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Utilization of MCNP ® 6 implicit-capture simulations for quantification of systematic uncertainties from experimental environments

In this study, the high statistical precision that can be achieved using modern data collection techniques implies that systematic uncertainties that were ignored or not considered for past experiments must now be explored. The folding of Monte Carlo simulations into experimental data analysis, which is becoming common practice, requires an estimate of the systematic uncertainty present in the experimental result from uncertainties in the library of cross sections used during the simulation, but this source of uncertainty is typically not quantified. Here we describe a method to estimate this systematic uncertainty by varying the cross sections used during simulation runtime. As opposed carrying out hundreds of sequential analog Monte Carlo simulations, this task was accomplished through a post-processing calculation of output from a single simulation that was run using the implicit-capture formalism available with MCNP ® 6.2 and the PTRAC output format.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forecasting generative amplification

Generative networks are perfect tools to enhance the speed and precision of LHC simulations. Especially when generating events beyond the size of the training dataset, it is important to understand their statistical precision. We present two complementary methods to estimate the amplification factor without large holdout datasets. Averaging amplification uses Bayesian networks or ensembling to estimate amplification from the precision of integrals over given phase-space volumes. Differential amplification uses hypothesis testing to quantify amplification without any resolution loss. Applied to state-of-the-art event generators, both methods indicate that amplification is already possible in specific regions of phase space.

Bahl, Henning [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reactor Power Level Estimation by Fusing Multi-Modal Sensor Measurements

Estimates of the power level of a nuclear reactor based on measurements from an independent monitoring sensor system can help in the compliance verification of its declared operations. We present a three-level fusion method to estimate the power level of a nuclear reactor using features derived from infrared, electromagnetic, and acoustic sensor measurements collected in proximity to the reactor. Based on a simplified analytical model of the secondary coolant system of the reactor, we identify partial regression functions of the power level in terms of the temperature difference between inlet and outlet of coolant pipes, and the activity levels of four fans and four pumps, which are estimated as features from the sensor measurements. The power level estimator employs a combination of aggregate and complementary fusion steps at three levels to incorporate the multi-modal features in a structure that reflects the secondary cooling system and its partial regression functions. Using the measurements from a test campaign at an operational reactor, we show that this estimator achieves 3.47% or lower root mean square error under 5-fold cross validation. More generally, these results illustrate a progressive reduction in estimation error as additional modalities are appropriately incorporated, and that the fuser outperforms single modality features and their sub-combinations.

Rao, Nageswara↗
NASA NTRS1988

The discrete correlation function: A new method for analyzing unevenly sampled variability data

A method of measuring correlation functions without interpolating in the temporal domain, the discrete correlation function, is introduced. It provides an assumption-free representation of the correlation measured in the data, and allows meaningful error estimates. This method does not produce spurious correlations at zero lag due to correlated errors. It is shown that physical interpretation of active galactic nuclei cross-correlation functions requires knowledge of the input function's fluctuation power spectrum, involves model-dependence in the form of symmetry assumptions, and must take into account intrinsic scale bias. This technique was used to find a correlation in published IUE data for NGC 4151, which indicates that the broad C IV feature emanates from a shell 15 to 75 light-days in radius, assuming spherical symmetry.

Edelson, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The updated statistical inversion technique to the evaluation of Umkehr observations

In the present study the standard retrieval Umkehr method to estimate the vertical distribution of ozone was updated using a statistical approach to the mathematical inversion scheme. The vertical ozone profile covariance matrix was used as a priori information for the inverse problem. A new method of the ozonesonde data organization according to air mass types helped to improve the covariance matrix quality. A retrieval method was developed using eigenvector technique. An optimal vertical ozone profile resolution was determined from the mathematical inversion scheme analysis based on the same technique. The sun radiation transfer was accounted for multiple scattering and atmospheric sphericity in this calculation. The retrievals using actual Umkehr Dobson spectrophotometer observations were also performed to provide the comparison of the standard and updated methods with concurrent ozone sound data at Boulder U.S. The comparison has revealed that the present method has some advantages in both resolution and accuracy, as compared to the standard one, especially for the atmospheric layers below ozone maximum.

Frolov, Alexander D.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating Customer Impact of Volt-Watt Using Only Smart Meter Voltage Data

The autonomous inverter control mode known as volt-watt control can be useful as a backstop against high customer voltages outside of the ranges specified in ANSI C84.1 (i.e. above 1.05-1.06 per unit). Volt-watt control mitigates high voltages by directly reducing the active power output of a distributed energy resource based on local voltage measurements. Therefore volt-watt control also can impact the energy produced by the DER (e.g. PV system), especially for customers with persistently high voltages, and in such cases it is difficult to determine exactly how much the DER has been curtailed because it is not generally known exactly how much energy the PV system could have produced. These slides propose a relatively simple method of estimating the DER's energy curtailment using only data from the utility advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data). The method proves surprisingly accurate when validated against detailed quasi-static time-series simulations and against limited field data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Abundance Estimates of Spring–Summer Snake River Chinook Salmon for Fisheries Management

Abstract The Columbia River basin is home to a run of spring–summer Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that returns to the Snake River drainage of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington in the Pacific Northwest. Historically, the run was one of the more productive throughout the Columbia River basin. However, Snake River spring–summer Chinook Salmon have experienced declines in abundance due to overfishing, habitat degradation, and dams. Several stocks are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and are supported by mitigation hatcheries funded by Idaho Power Company, the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, and the Bonneville Power Administration. To maximize tribal and state harvest of returning hatchery adults, minimize impacts on wild fish, and ensure that enough hatchery fish return to meet broodstock needs, careful fisheries management is required. Since 2008, managers have used hatchery adults, PIT-tagged as juveniles and detected at Lower Granite Dam, to generate adult abundance estimates. In season, these estimates inform state and tribal harvest shares and ensure that broodstock needs are met. Postseason, they provide smolt-to-adult survival and return rates. Since 2012, parentage-based tagging (PBT) has provided an alternative method to estimate stock- and age-specific returns at Lower Granite Dam, since returning hatchery adults sampled at Lower Granite Dam can be assigned to their parents. We compared stock-specific abundance estimates between PIT- and PBT-derived methodologies for return years 2016–2019. Across all years, PIT tag estimates accounted for 65% of the PBT-based estimates at Lower Granite Dam across all age-groups and release sites combined. This underrepresentation across all groups equated to 49,833 fish that were not accounted for in PIT tag abundance estimates. It is clear that PBT-based estimates should aide in-season harvest management and postseason run reconstruction to avoid the known bias of estimates from PIT tags, especially during years of low returns when increased accuracy is critical.

Coykendall, D. Katharine (ORCID:0000000211482397)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Radiative Losses in the Chromosphere During A C-Class Flare

Context. Solar flares release an enormous amount of energy (~10(exp 32) erg) into the corona. A substantial fraction of this energy is transported to the lower atmosphere, which results in chromospheric heating. The mechanisms that transport energy to the lower solar atmosphere during a flare are still not fully understood. Aims. We aim to estimate the temporal evolution of the radiative losses in the chromosphere at the footpoints of a C-class flare, in order to set observational constraints on the electron beam parameters of a RADYN flare simulation. Methods. We estimated the radiative losses from hydrogen, and singly ionized Ca and Mg using semiempirical model atmospheres, which were inferred from a multiline inversion of observed Stokes profiles obtained with the CRISP and CHROMIS instruments on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The radiative losses were computed taking into account the effect of partial redistribution and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium. To estimate the integrated radiative losses in the chromosphere, the net cooling rates were integrated between the temperature minimum and the height where the temperature reaches 10 kK. We also compared our time series of radiative losses with those from the RADYN flare simulations. Results. We obtained a high spatial-resolution map of integrated radiative losses around the flare peak time. The stratification of the net cooling rate suggests that the Ca IR triplet lines are responsible for most of the radiative losses in the flaring atmosphere. During the flare peak time, the contribution from Ca II H and K and Mgii h and k lines are strong and comparable to the Ca IR triplet (~32kW m(exp -2)). Since our flare is a relatively weak event, the chromosphere is not heated above 11 kK, which in turn yields a subdued Lyα contribution (~7kW m(exp -2)) in the selected limits of the chromosphere. The temporal evolution of total integrated radiative losses exhibits sharply rising losses (0.4kW m(exp -2) (s(exp -1)) and a relatively slow decay (0.23kW m(exp -2) s(exp -1)). The maximum value of total radiative losses is reached around the flare peak time and can go up to 175kWm􀀀2 for a single pixel located at footpoint. After a small parameter study, we find the best model-data consistency in terms of the amplitude of radiative losses and the overall atmospheric structure with a RADYN flare simulation in the injected energy flux of 5 × 10(exp 10) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2).

Chromosphere↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting the glass transition temperature and viscosity of secondary organic material using molecular composition

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) accounts for a large fraction of submicron particles in the atmosphere. SOA can occur in amorphous solid or semi-solid phase states depending on chemical composition, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The phase transition between amorphous solid and semi-solid states occurs at the glass transition temperature ( T g ). We have recently developed a method to estimate T g of pure compounds containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen atoms (CHO compounds) with molar mass less than 450 g mol -1 based on their molar mass and atomic O : C ratio. In this study, we refine and extend this method for CH and CHO compounds with molar mass up to ~1100 g mol -1 using the number of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen atoms. We predict viscosity from the T g -scaled Arrhenius plot of fragility (viscosity vs. T g / T ) as a function of the fragility parameter D . We compiled D values of organic compounds from the literature and found that D approaches a lower limit of ~10 (±1.7) as the molar mass increases. We estimated the viscosity of α -pinene and isoprene SOA as a function of RH by accounting for the hygroscopic growth of SOA and applying the Gordon–Taylor mixing rule, reproducing previously published experimental measurements very well. Sensitivity studies were conducted to evaluate impacts of T g , D , the hygroscopicity parameter ( κ ), and the Gordon–Taylor constant on viscosity predictions. The viscosity of toluene SOA was predicted using the elemental composition obtained by high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS), resulting in a good agreement with the measured viscosity. We also estimated the viscosity of biomass burning particles using the chemical composition measured by HRMS with two different ionization techniques: electrospray ionization (ESI) and atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI). Due to differences in detected organic compounds and signal intensity, predicted viscosities at low RH based on ESI and APPI measurements differ by 2–5 orders of magnitude. Complementary measurements of viscosity and chemical composition are desired to further constrain RH-dependent viscosity in future studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2021

Three-dimensional estimation of deciduous forest canopy structure and leaf area using multi-directional, leaf-on and leaf-off airborne lidar data

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) has been widely used to map gap probability and leaf area index (LAI) distribution at plot and landscape scales. As an indirect measurement, most ALS methods to estimate LAI combine waveform or point density information with supporting field measurements such as the leaf angle distribution, gap probability, or direct LAI measures. The development of a more independent estimation approach would facilitate more widespread use of existing ALS data to investigate patterns of forest structure and build realistic 3-D vegetation scenes to simulate remote sensing imagery and energy balance. Here, we develop a data processing workflow (named PVlad) using ALS point cloud apparent reflectance to estimate LAI and voxel-based leaf area density (LAD), aiming to reduce the need for associated field measurements such as the gap probability. The adaptation of the path volume (PV) concept derived from apparent reflectance integrates information from multi-directional ALS pulses, and quantifies the percentage exploration of each voxel for classification and occlusion correction, such that rigorous volumetric sampling approaches can be developed to derive LAI and LAD. The PVlad workflow was applied to discrete-return lidar data (Riegl VQ480i) acquired by NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyperspectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager during leaf-on (summer) and leaf-off (spring) conditions at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC). The estimates of LAI and LAD captured structural differences between mature, logged, and intermediate-aged stands over eight deciduous forest plots. The derived LAI values were compared to field litter collection measurements, and the derived LAD vertical distribution was compared to the output of the VoxLAD model using terrestrial laser scan (TLS) field survey data. Using voxel sizes ranging from 0.5 m to 5 m, overall LAI estimation showed linear fitting coefficient bias and for 1 and 2 m voxel sizes, and vertical LAD distribution showed strong correlation with and for 0.5 and 1m voxel sizes. For every forest stand, upper-canopy LAD had a low variance for voxel sizes of ≤ . Application of PVlad to the G-LiHT and other similar ALS data archives enables the development of fine-resolution LAI map products, including voxelization of LAD for ecosystem science and radiative transfer simulations of remote sensing imagery or surface energy balance.

Tiangang Yin↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Simons Observatory: validation of reconstructed power spectra from simulated filtered maps for the small aperture telescope survey

We present a transfer function-based method to estimate angular power spectra from filtered maps for cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. This is especially relevant for experiments targeting the faint primordial gravitational wave signatures in CMB polarisation at large scales, such as the Simons Observatory (SO) small aperture telescopes. While timestreams can be filtered to mitigate the contamination from low-frequency noise, usual methods that calculate the mode coupling at individual multipoles can be challenging for experiments covering large sky areas or reaching few-arcminute resolution. The method we present here, although approximate, is more practical and faster for larger data volumes. We validate it through the use of simulated observations approximating the first year of SO data, going from half-wave plate-modulated timestreams to maps, and using simulations to estimate the mixing of polarisation modes induced by an example of time-domain filtering. We show its performance through an example null test and with an end-to-end pipeline that performs inference on cosmological parameters, including the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. The performance demonstration uses simulated observations at multiple frequency bands. We find that the method can recover unbiased parameters for our simulated noise levels.

CMBR experiments↗
NASA NTRS1985

Wavelength error analysis in a multiple-beam Fizeau laser wavemeter having a linear diode array readout

An estimate of the wavelength accuracy of a laser wavemeter is performed for a system consisting of a multiple-beam Fizeau interferometer and a linear photosensor array readout. The analysis consists of determining the fringe position errors which result when various noise sources are included in the fringe forming and detection process. Two methods of estimating the fringe centers are considered: (1) maximum pixel current location, and (2) average pixel location for two detectors with nearly equal output currents. Wavelength error results for these two methods are compared for some typical wavemeter parameters.

Robinson, D. M.↗