Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Validation of clinical acceptability of an atlas-based segmentation algorithm for the delineation of organs at risk in head and neck cancer

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess whether clinically acceptable segmentations of organs at risk (OARs) in head and neck cancer can be obtained automatically and efficiently using the novel “similarity and truth estimation for propagated segmentations” (STEPS) compared to the traditional “simultaneous truth and performance level estimation” (STAPLE) algorithm. Methods: First, 6 OARs were contoured by 2 radiation oncologists in a dataset of 100 patients with head and neck cancer on planning computed tomography images. Each image in the dataset was then automatically segmented with STAPLE and STEPS using those manual contours. Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) was then used to compare the accuracy of these automatic methods. Second, in a blind experiment, three separate and distinct trained physicians graded manual and automatic segmentations into one of the following three grades: clinically acceptable as determined by universal delineation guidelines (grade A), reasonably acceptable for clinical practice upon manual editing (grade B), and not acceptable (grade C). Finally, STEPS segmentations graded B were selected and one of the physicians manually edited them to grade A. Editing time was recorded. Results: Significant improvements in DSC can be seen when using the STEPS algorithm on large structures such as the brainstem, spinal canal, and left/right parotid compared to the STAPLE algorithm (all p < 0.001). In addition, across all three trained physicians, manual and STEPS segmentation grades were not significantly different for the brainstem, spinal canal, parotid (right/left), and optic chiasm (all p > 0.100). In contrast, STEPS segmentation grades were lower for the eyes (p < 0.001). Across all OARs and all physicians, STEPS produced segmentations graded as well as manual contouring at a rate of 83%, giving a lower bound on this rate of 80% with 95% confidence. Reduction in manual interaction time was on average 61% and 93% when automatic segmentations did and did not, respectively, require manual editing. Conclusions: The STEPS algorithm showed better performance than the STAPLE algorithm in segmenting OARs for radiotherapy of the head and neck. It can automatically produce clinically acceptable segmentation of OARs, with results as relevant as manual contouring for the brainstem, spinal canal, the parotids (left/right), and optic chiasm. A substantial reduction in manual labor was achieved when using STEPS even when manual editing was necessary.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Witnessing eigenstates for quantum simulation of Hamiltonian spectra

The efficient calculation of Hamiltonian spectra, a problem often intractable on classical machines, can find application in many fields, from physics to chemistry. We introduce the concept of an “eigenstate witness” and, through it, provide a new quantum approach that combines variational methods and phase estimation to approximate eigenvalues for both ground and excited states. This protocol is experimentally verified on a programmable silicon quantum photonic chip, a mass-manufacturable platform, which embeds entangled state generation, arbitrary controlled unitary operations, and projective measurements. Both ground and excited states are experimentally found with fidelities >99%, and their eigenvalues are estimated with 32 bits of precision. We also investigate and discuss the scalability of the approach and study its performance through numerical simulations of more complex Hamiltonians. This result shows promising progress toward quantum chemistry on quantum computers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Feasibility of flow studies at NICA/MPD

In the light of recent developments in heavy ion physic, anisotropic flow measurements play a key role in a better understanding of the hot and dense barionic matter. In the presented article a short introduction to the proposed NICA/MPD project is given, as well as a brief description of the event-plane method used to estimate the elliptic flow of reconstructed and identified hadrons (p, π, Λ)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Solving Inverse Stochastic Problems from Discrete Particle Observations Using the Fokker--Planck Equation and Physics-Informed Neural Networks

The Fokker--Planck (FP) equation governing the evolution of the probability density function (PDF) is applicable to many disciplines, but it requires specification of the coefficients for each case, which can be functions of space-time and not just constants and hence require the development of a data-driven modeling approach. When the data available is directly on the PDF, there exist methods for inverse problems that can be employed to infer the coefficients and thus determine the FP equation and subsequently obtain its solution. Herein, we address a more realistic scenario, where only sparse data are given on the particles' positions at a few time instants, which are not sufficient to accurately construct directly the PDF even at those times from existing methods, e.g., kernel estimation algorithms. To this end, we develop a general framework based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that introduces a new loss function using the Kullback--Leibler divergence to connect the stochastic samples with the FP equation to simultaneously learn the equation and infer the multidimensional PDF at all times. In particular, we consider two types of inverse problems, type I, where the FP equation is known but the initial PDF is unknown, and type II, in which, in addition to the unknown initial PDF, the drift and diffusion terms are also unknown. In both cases, we investigate problems with either Brownian or Lévy noise or a combination of both. Here, we demonstrate the new PINN framework in detail in the one-dimensional (1D) case, but we also provide results for up to five dimensions demonstrating that we can infer both the FP equation and dynamics simultaneously at all times with high accuracy using only very few discrete observations of the particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gaussian Process Regression under Computational and Epistemic Misspecification

Gaussian process regression is a classical kernel method for function estimation and data interpolation. In large data applications, computational costs can be reduced using low-rank or sparse approximations of the kernel. This paper investigates the effect of such kernel approximations on the interpolation error. We introduce a unified framework to analyze Gaussian process regression under important classes of computational misspecification: Karhunen-Loève expansions that result in low-rank kernel approximations, multiscale wavelet expansions that induce sparsity in the covariance matrix, and finite element representations that induce sparsity in the precision matrix. Furthermore, our theory also accounts for epistemic misspecification in the choice of kernel parameters.

Gaussian process regression↗

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evolution of deep-bed filtration of engine exhaust particulates with trapped mass

Micro-scale filtration experiments were performed on cordierite filter samples using particulate matter (PM) generated by a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) engine fueled with tier II EEE certification gasoline. Size-resolved mass and number concentrations were obtained from several engine operating conditions. The resultant mass-mobility relationships showed weak dependence on the operating condition. An integrated particle size distribution (IPSD) method was used estimate the PM mass concentration in the exhaust stream from the SIDI engine and a heavy duty diesel (HDD) engine. The average estimated mass concentration between all conditions was ~77****** % of the gravimetric measurements performed on Teflon filters. Despite the relatively low elemental carbon fraction (~0.4 to 0.7), the IPSD mass for stoichiometric SIDI exhaust was ~83±38 % of the gravimetric measurement. Identical cordierite filter samples with properties representative of diesel particulate filters were sequentially loaded with PM from the different SIDI engine operating conditions, in order of increasing PM mass concentration. Simultaneous particle size distribution measurements upstream and downstream of the filter sample were used to evaluate filter performance evolution and the instantaneous trapped mass within the filter for two different filter face velocities. The evolution of filtration performance for the different samples was sensitive only to trapped mass, despite using PM from a wide range of operating conditions. Higher filtration velocity resulted in a more rapid shift in the most penetrating particle size towards smaller mobility diameters.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Comparison of two different methods of image analysis for the assessment of microglial activation in patients with multiple sclerosis using (R)-[N-methyl-carbon-11]PK11195

Chronic active multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions have a rim of activated microglia/macrophages (m/M) leading to ongoing tissue damage, and thus represent a potential treatment target. Activation of this innate immune response in MS has been visualized and quantified using PET imaging with [ 11C]-(R)-PK11195 (PK). Accurate identification of m/M activation in chronic MS lesions requires the sensitivity to detect lower levels of activity within a small tissue volume. We assessed the ability of kinetic modeling of PK PET data to detect m/M activity in different central nervous system (CNS) tissue regions of varying sizes and in chronic MS lesions. Ten patients with MS underwent a single brain MRI and two PK PET scans 2 hours apart. Volume of interest (VOI) masks were generated for the white matter (WM), cortical gray matter (CGM), and thalamus (TH). The distribution volume (VT) was calculated with the Logan graphical method (LGM-VT) utilizing an image-derived input function (IDIF). The binding potential (BPND) was calculated with the reference Logan graphical method (RLGM) utilizing a supervised clustering algorithm (SuperPK) to determine the non-specific binding region. Masks of varying volume were created in the CNS to assess the impact of region size on the various metrics among high and low uptake regions. Chronic MS lesions were also evaluated and individual lesion masks were generated. The highest PK uptake occurred the TH and lowest within the WM, as demonstrated by the mean time activity curves. In the TH, both reference and IDIF based methods resulted in estimates that did not significantly depend on VOI size. However, in the WM, the test-retest reliability of BPND was significantly lower in the smallest VOI, compared to the estimates of LGM-VT. These observations were consistent for all chronic MS lesions examined. In this study, we demonstrate that BPND and LGM-VT are both reliable for quantifying m/M activation in regions of high uptake, however with blood input function LGM-VT is preferred to assess longitudinal m/M activation in regions of relatively low uptake, such as chronic MS lesions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The effects of chronic diseases on plutonium urinary excretion in former workers of the Mayak Production Association

The radiochemical analysis of plutonium activity in urine is the main method for indirect estimation of doses of internal exposure from plutonium incorporation in professional workers. It was previously shown that late-in-life acute diseases, particularly those that affect the liver, can promote accelerated rates of release of plutonium from the liver with enhanced excretion rates. This initial study examines the relationships of some chronic diseases on plutonium excretion as well as the terminal relative distribution of plutonium between the liver and skeleton. Fourteen cases from former workers at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) who provided from 4–9 urine plutonium bioassays for plutonium, had an autopsy conducted after death, and had sufficient clinical records to document their health status were used in this study. Enhanced plutonium excretion was associated with more serious chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and other diseases that involved the liver. These chronic diseases were also associated with relatively less plutonium found in the liver relative to the skeleton determined by analyses conducted after autopsy. These data further document health conditions that affect plutonium biokinetics and organ deposition and retention patterns and suggest that health status should be considered when conducting plutonium bioassays as these may alter subsequent dosimetry and risk models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimations of Coherent Instabilities for JLEIC

JLEIC is the medium energy electron-ion collider currently under active design at Jefferson Lab*. The design goals of JLEIC are both high luminosity (1033-1034 cm-2ses-1) and high polarization (>70%) for the electron and light ion beams, for a wide range of electron and ion beam energies and for a wide spectrum of ion species. The unprecedented luminosity goal for this electron-ion collider sets strong requirements for the understanding and management of potential collective effects in JLEIC. In this paper, we present preliminary estimations of single and coupled bunch coherent instabilities for the electron and proton beams at collision energies for the JLEIC design. Further improvement of the estimations and mitigation methods are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a wide variety of system designs and locations. A scattering of independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort spent on verifying these models beyond the system design and location on which they were based. Moreover, none of the major PV modeling software products have incorporated any of these models into their workflow. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. [1] into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for two PV arrays. Following this, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical dataset to estimate average snow losses across the United States for a typical PV system design. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nation-wide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dissolved Organic Carbon 14C in Southern Nevada Groundwater and Implications for Groundwater Travel Times

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) carbon-14 ( 14 C) ages must be corrected for complex chemical and physical reactions and processes that change the amount of 14 C in groundwater as it flows from recharge to downgradient areas. Because of these reactions, DIC 14 C can produce unrealistically old ages and long groundwater travel times that may, or may not, agree with travel times estimated by other methods. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) 14 C ages are often younger than DIC 14 C ages because there are few chemical reactions or physical processes that change the amount of DOC 14 C in groundwater. However, there are several issues that create uncertainty in DOC 14 C groundwater ages including limited knowledge of the initial (A 0 ) DOC 14 C in groundwater recharge and potential changes in DOC composition as water moves through an aquifer. This study examines these issues by quantifying A 0 DOC 14 C in recharge areas of southern Nevada groundwater flow systems and by evaluating changes in DOC composition as water flows from recharge areas to downgradient areas. The effect of these processes on DOC 14 C groundwater ages is evaluated and DOC and DIC 14 C ages are then compared along several southern Nevada groundwater flow paths. Twenty-seven groundwater samples were collected from springs and wells in southern Nevada in upgradient, midgradient, and downgradient locations. DOC 14 C for upgradient samples ranged from 96 to 120 percent modern carbon (pmc) with an average of 106 pmc, verifying modern DOC 14 C ages in recharge areas, which decreases uncertainty in DOC 14 C A 0 values, groundwater ages, and travel times. The HPLC spectra of groundwater along a flow path in the Spring Mountains show the same general pattern indicating that the DOC compound composition does not change along this flow path. Although DOC concentration decreases from recharge-area to downgradient groundwater, the organic compounds are similar, indicating that DOC 14 C is unaffected by other processes such as microbial degradation. A small amount of organic carbon was leached from crushed volcanic and carbonate aquifer outcrop rock in rock-leaching experiments. The leached DOC was high in 14 C (75 pmc carbonate rocks, 91 pmc volcanic) suggesting that the leached DOC likely came from microbes in the rock samples. The small amount of DOC and high 14 C indicates that the amount of old organic carbon in these rocks is low so there should be minimal impact on groundwater DOC 14 C ages. Based on the results from this study, DOC 14 C ages do not require additional corrections. Several correction models were applied to DIC 14 C ages to correct for water-rock reactions along two carbonate and two volcanic flow paths and the corresponding travel times were compare to DOC 14 C travel times. The DOC 14 C travel times were hundreds to thousands of years shorter than uncorrected and corrected DIC 14 C travel times except for the upper section of one carbonate flow path. DOC 14 C travel times ranged from 400 to 5,400 years as compared to DIC 14 C that ranged from modern to 20,900 years. The DIC 14 C ages are greatly influenced by carbonate mineral and gas reactions and other processes such as matrix diffusion, isotope exchange, or adsorption, which are not always adequately accounted for in DIC 14 C groundwater age correction models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiological environmental dose assessment methods and compliance dose results for 2015 operations at the Savannah River Site

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the offsite public from 2015 Savannah River Site (SRS) atmospheric and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios - such as the consumption of deer meat, fish, and goat milk.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Building-Wide, Adaptive Energy Management Systems for High-Performance Buildings: Final CRADA Report

Development and field demonstration of the minimum ratio policy for occupancy-driven, predictive control of outdoor air ventilation. Technology transfer of Argonne’s methods for occupancy estimation and forecasting and for M&V to BuildingIQ for their deployment. Selection of CO2 sensing as the currently best-available technology for occupancy-driven controls. Accelerated restart capability for the commercial BuildingIQ system using horizon shifting strategies applied to receding horizon optimal control problems. Empirical-based evidence of 30% chilled water energy savings and 22% total HVAC energy savings achievable with the BuildingIQ system operating in the APS Office Building on-site at Argonne.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Radiological impact of 2016 operations at the Savannah River Site

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the offsite public from 2016 Savannah River Site (SRS) air and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios, such as the consumption of wildlife or goat milk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a variety of system designs and locations. Many independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort verifying these models beyond the system designs and locations on which they were based. Moreover, major PV modeling software products have not yet incorporated any of these models into their workflows. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. (2013) into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work, we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and we discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for three PV arrays. Next, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical data set to estimate average snow losses across the United States for two typical PV system designs. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nationwide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Testing of Strategies for the Acceleration of the Cost Optimization

The general problem addressed in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project is finding the optimum economical dispatch (ED) and capacity planning solutions for the hybrid energy systems. In the present test-problem configuration, the N-R HES unit is composed of three electrical power-generating components, i.e. the Balance of Plant (BOP), the Secondary Energy Source (SES), and the Energy Storage (ES). In addition, there is an Industrial Process (IP), which is devoted to hydrogen generation. At this preliminary stage, the goal is to find the power outputs of each one of the N-R HES unit components (BOP, SES, ES) and the IP hydrogen production level that maximizes the unit profit by simultaneously satisfying individual component operational constraints. The optimization problem is meant to be solved in the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The dynamic response of the N-R HES unit components is simulated by using dedicated object-oriented models written in the Modelica modeling language. Though this code coupling provides for very accurate predictions, the ensuing optimization problem is characterized by a very large number of solution variables. To ease the computational burden and to improve the path to a converged solution, a method to better estimate the initial guess for the optimization problem solution was developed. The proposed approach led to the definition of a suitable Monte Carlo-based optimization algorithm (called the preconditioner), which provides an initial guess for the optimal N-R HES power dispatch and the optimal installed capacity for each one of the unit components. The preconditioner samples a set of stochastic power scenarios for each one of the N-R HES unit components, and then for each of them the corresponding value of a suitably defined cost function is evaluated. After having simulated a sufficient number of power histories, the configuration which ensures the highest profit is selected as the optimal one. The component physical dynamics are represented through suitable ramp constraints, which considerably simplify the numerical solving. In order to test the capabilities of the proposed approach, in the present report, the dispatch problem only is tackled, i.e. a reference unit configuration is assumed, and each one of the N-R HES unit components is assumed to have a fixed installed capacity. As for the next steps, the main improvement will concern the operation strategy of the ES facility. In particular, in order to describe a more realistic battery commitment strategy, the ES operation will be regulated according to the electricity price forecasts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NCI Pilot 3 - Synthetic Data Generation Report

Two methods have been implemented so far: Independent Marginals (IM) and Bayesian Network (BN). In the IM method, it simply estimates individual discrete probability distribution from the available real data for each variable, and then sample from them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗