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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

EGS Collab Project: Accomplishments and Plan

To better understand stimulation and inter-well flow in crystalline rock with the goal of developing and improving subsurface heat exchangers for enhanced geothermal energy recovery, the EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) Collab project is developing highly monitored, well- characterized intermediate scale (~10-20 m) field test beds, stimulating, and performing flow tests. These tests provide the ability to evaluate concepts, data to test and validate models, and tools to be used for EGS development, which may be evaluated at DOE’s Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) project. Numerical simulation is key to the project, for experiment design and interpretation of results. Testbed characterization included optical and acoustic televiewers, full waveform seismic, electromagnetic, gamma, and temperature. The test block was further characterized using seismic tomography (p- and s-), electrical resistance tomography (ERT), and hydrologic characterization including tracer tests. Coupled process models are constrained by the detailed site characterization data. Installed monitoring systems include: 1) passive seismic/acoustic emissions; 2) continuous active source seismic; 3) ERT, with dynamic imaging using high contrast fluids; and 4) distributed acoustic, temperature, and strain fiber optic sensors. During flow and stimulation tests, fracture aperture strain monitoring is performed using the Step-rate Injection Method for Fracture In-situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool. Pressure and flow in the injection and production boreholes are monitored, and tracer tests and wavefield imaging and inversion are performed to provide additional constraints. Stimulations have been performed at several locations, connecting our injection and production wells. An overview of the EGS Collab project is presented to provide a framework for other EGS Collab presentations, along with results from numerical simulations and experiments performed at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota.

Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS Collab, stimulati↗

2HDM neutral scalars under the LHC

Two Higgs Doublet Models (2HDM) provide a simple framework for new physics models with an extended Higgs sector. The current LHC results, including both direct searches for additional non-Standard Model (SM) Higgs bosons, as well as precision measurements of the SM-like Higgs couplings, already provide strong constraints on the 2HDM parameter spaces. In this paper, we examine those constraints for the neutral scalars in the Type-I and Type-II 2HDM. In addition to the direct search channels with SM final states: H/A → ff¯¯¯, VV, Vh, hh, we study in particular the exotic decay channels of H/A → AZ/HZ once there is a mass hierarchy between the non-SM Higgses. We found that H/A → AZ/H Z channel has unique sensitivity to the alignment limit region which remains unconstrained by conventional searches and Higgs precision measurements. This mode also extends the reach at intermediate tβ for heavy mA that are not covered by the other direct searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Electron Bifurcating FixABCX Protein Complex from Azotobacter vinelandii : Generation of Low-Potential Reducing Equivalents for Nitrogenase Catalysis

The biological reduction of dinitrogen (N 2 ) to ammonia (NH 3 ) by nitrogenase is an energetically demanding reaction that requires low-potential electrons and ATP; however, pathways used to deliver the electrons from central metabolism to the reductants of nitrogenase, ferredoxin or flavodoxin, remain unknown for many diazotrophic microbes. The FixABCX protein complex has been proposed to reduce flavodoxin or ferredoxin using NADH as the electron donor in a process known as electron bifurcation. Herein, the FixABCX complex from Azotobacter vinelandii was purified and demonstrated to catalyze an electron bifurcation reaction: oxidation of NADH (E m = -320 mV) coupled to reduction of flavodoxin semiquinone (E m = -460 mV) and reduction of coenzyme Q (E m = 10 mV). Knocking out fix genes rendered ..delta..rnf A. vinelandii cells unable to fix dinitrogen, confirming that the FixABCX system provides another route for delivery of electrons to nitrogenase. Characterization of the purified FixABCX complex revealed the presence of flavin and iron-sulfur cofactors confirmed by native mass spectrometry, electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, and transient absorption spectroscopy. Transient absorption spectroscopy further established the presence of a short-lived flavin semiquinone radical, suggesting that a thermodynamically unstable flavin semiquinone may participate as an intermediate in the transfer of an electron to flavodoxin. A structural model of FixABCX, generated using chemical cross-linking in conjunction with homology modeling, revealed plausible electron transfer pathways to both high- and low-potential acceptors. Altogether, this study informs a mechanism for electron bifurcation, offering insight into a unique method for delivery of low-potential electrons required for energy-intensive biochemical conversions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mechanistic Implications of Reductive Co–C Bond Cleavage in B 12 -Dependent Methylmalonyl CoA Mutase

Vitamin B12-dependent enzymes catalyze several difficult radical reactions. However, there are fundamental open questions that need to be addressed to fully understand the formation of highly reactive radical species, its dynamics and interaction with substrate and enzyme. In this work, the possible role of a Proton Coupled Electron Transfer (PCET) pathway concurrent with the Co-C bond activation was investigated. Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics (CPMD) was performed within a QM/MM framework on a reduced AdoCbl cofactor, which was taken as a post-PCET initial step in the activation of the AdoCbl-dependent methylmalonyl CoA mutase (MCM) enzyme. The calculated free energy profile reveals two possible pathways with similar energies, stepwise (I) and concerted (II) for the reductive Co-C cleavage and subsequent H-abstraction. The concerted pathway may be preferred kinetically, because it avoids the formation of a high-energy radical intermediate with possibly a larger recrossing rate. Our results are consistent with the previous proposal of the conductor hypothesis, indicating the explicit role of cob(II)alamin in stabilizing the radical intermediate involved in H-atom transfer.

Vitamin B12, Molecular Dynamics, QM/MM↗

Obliquely propagating waves in the magnetized strongly coupled one-component plasma

The quasi-localized charge approximation is used to calculate the wave spectrum of the magnetized three-dimensional strongly coupled one-component plasma at arbitrary angles θ between the wave vector and the magnetic field axis. Three frequency branches are identified whose interplay is strongly determined by β=ω{sub c}/ω{sub p}, the ratio of the cyclotron frequency ω{sub c}, and the plasma frequency ω{sub p}. The frequency dispersion relations for the three principal modes along the magnetic field cross in the case β<1, which strongly affects the transition from parallel to perpendicular wave propagation. For β>1, the frequencies of the different branches are well separated, and the long-wavelength dispersion in the intermediate and upper branch changes sign as θ is varied from 0 to π/2. In addition to the frequencies, we also investigate the waves' polarization properties.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prompt release of O 1 D products upon UV excitation of CH 2 OO Criegee intermediates

We report that velocity map imaging has been used to characterize the angular and velocity distributions of O 1 D photofragments arising from UV excitation of the simplest Criegee intermediate CH 2 OO in the long wavelength tail region (364 to 417 nm) of the B 1 A'–X 1 A' spectrum. The O 1 D images exhibit anisotropic angular distributions indicative of rapid dissociation to H 2 CO X 1 A 1 + O 1 D products, which occurs faster than the rotational period (ps) of CH 2 OO. As a result, the broad oscillatory structure reported previously in the long wavelength region of the UV absorption spectrum is attributed to short-lived resonances associated with the excited B 1 A' state of CH 2 OO, which decay by nonadiabatic coupling to repulsive singlet states. The total kinetic energy distributions show that nearly half of the available energy, on average, is partitioned to product translation. The balance results in significant internal excitation of the H 2 CO co-fragments. In conclusion, the product anisotropy and energy partitioning are unchanged across the UV spectrum and consistent with previously reported experimental and theoretical findings of the CH 2 OO B-X transition moment and dissociation energy to H 2 CO X 1 A 1 + O 1 D products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MAGNETIC ENERGY CASCADE IN SPHERICAL GEOMETRY. I. THE STELLAR CONVECTIVE DYNAMO CASE

We present a method to characterize the spectral transfers of magnetic energy between scales in simulations of stellar convective dynamos. The full triadic transfer functions are computed thanks to analytical coupling relations of spherical harmonics based on the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients. The method is applied to mean field {alpha}{Omega} dynamo models as benchmark tests. From a physical standpoint, the decomposition of the dynamo field into primary and secondary dynamo families proves very instructive in the {alpha}{Omega} case. The same method is then applied to a fully turbulent dynamo in a solar convection zone, modeled with the three-dimensional MHD Anelastic Spherical Harmonics code. The initial growth of the magnetic energy spectrum is shown to be non-local. It mainly reproduces the kinetic energy spectrum of convection at intermediate scales. During the saturation phase, two kinds of direct magnetic energy cascades are observed in regions encompassing the smallest scales involved in the simulation. The first cascade is obtained through the shearing of the magnetic field by the large-scale differential rotation that effectively cascades magnetic energy. The second is a generalized cascade that involves a range of local magnetic and velocity scales. Non-local transfers appear to be significant, such that the net transfers cannot be reduced to the dynamics of a small set of modes. The saturation of the large-scale axisymmetric dipole and quadrupole is detailed. In particular, the dipole is saturated by a non-local interaction involving the most energetic scale of the magnetic energy spectrum, which points to the importance of the magnetic Prandtl number for large-scale dynamos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ACCRETION DISK DYNAMO AS THE TRIGGER FOR X-RAY BINARY STATE TRANSITIONS

Magnetohydrodynamic accretion disk simulations suggest that much of the energy liberated by the magnetorotational instability (MRI) can be channeled into large-scale toroidal magnetic fields through dynamo action. Under certain conditions, this field can dominate over gas and radiation pressure in providing vertical support against gravity, even close to the midplane. Using a simple model for the creation of this field, its buoyant rise, and its coupling to the gas, we show how disks could be driven into this magnetically dominated state and deduce the resulting vertical pressure and density profiles. Applying an established criterion for MRI to operate in the presence of a toroidal field, we show that magnetically supported disks can have two distinct MRI-active regions, separated by a “dead zone” where local MRI is suppressed, but where magnetic energy continues to flow upward from the dynamo region below. We suggest that the relative strengths of the MRI zones, and the local poloidal flux, determine the spectral states of X-ray binaries. Specifically, “intermediate” and “hard” accretion states occur when MRI is triggered in the hot, upper zone of the corona, while disks in “soft” states do not develop the upper MRI zone. We discuss the conditions under which various transitions should take place and speculate on the relationship of dynamo activity to the various types of quasi-periodic oscillations that sometimes appear in the hard spectral components. The model also explains why luminous accretion disks in the “soft” state show no signs of the thermal/viscous instability predicted by standard α-models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

Resonance ionization mass spectrometry for isotopic abundance measurements

Resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) is a relatively new laser-based technique for the determination of isotopic abundances. The resonance ionization process depends upon the stepwise absorption of photons from the laser, promoting atoms of the element of interest through progressively higher electronic states until an ion is formed. Sensitivity arises from the efficiency of the resonant absorption process when coupled with the power available from commercial laser sources. Selectivity derives naturally from the distinct electronic structure of different elements. This isobaric discrimination has provided the major impetus for development of the technique. Resonance ionization mass spectrometry was used for analysis of the isotopic abundances of the rare earth lutetium. Isobaric interferences from ytterbium severely effect the ability to measure small amounts of the neutron-deficient Lu isotopes by conventional mass spectrometric techniques. Resonance ionization for lutetium is performed using a continuous-wave laser operating at 452 nm, through a sequential two-photon process, with one photon exciting the intermediate resonance and the second photon causing ionization. Ion yields for microgram-sized quantities of lutetium lie between 10(6) and 10(7) ions per second, at overall ionization efficiencies approaching 10(-4). Discrimination factors against ytterbium greater than 10(6) have been measured. Resonance ionization for technetium is also being explored, again in response to an isobaric interference, molybdenum. Because of the relatively high ionization potential for Tc, three-photon, two-color RIMS processes are being developed.

Miller, C. M.↗

Updates and Validation for the n+ 63,65 Cu Cross Sections [Abstract]

The neutron induced total, elastic, and capture cross sections of 63,65 Cu isotopes were selected for evaluation in the resolved and unresolved resonance energy ranges by the National Criticality Safety Program to resolve discrepancies related to benchmark performance. This is especially evident for the series of ZEUS benchmarks in which copper is used as a reflector. Because copper is also used as structural material in both fission and fusion reactors, the need to address benchmark discrepancies linked to nuclear data deficiencies is a task of primary importance. The aim of this work is to describe the steps of evaluation work towards a consistent improvement of the benchmark performance. The R-matrix analysis with the SAMMY code focused on the 63 Cu(n,γ) reaction channel between 100-300 keV coupled to unresolved resonance region parameters up to 650 keV to fit average cross section data from a recent experiment. Due to the high sensitivity of many benchmarks to elastic scattering angular distribution data, especially for the 65 Cu isotope, the impact of these data was tested by generating Legendre coefficients from both resonance parameters and the Hauser-Feshbach model. Guided by the findings of Shaw et al., the performance of the current evaluation for 65 Cu was compared to that of ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 by testing the reactivity coefficients corresponding to the validation suite of experimental criticality benchmarks for thermal, intermediate, and fast systems taken from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments Project Handbook. The benchmark performance is especially sensitive to 63 Cu(n,γ) and 65 Cu elastic scattering for neutron energies in the 100–500 keV region, whereas 100 keV is the upper limit of the resolved resonance region in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluations for 63,65 Cu. The results highlight the need to handle the transition from the resolved resonance region to the high energy region carefully.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Spectroscopic Characterisation of a Bio-Inspired Ni-Based Proton Reduction Catalyst Bearing a Pentadentate N 2 S 3 Ligand with Improved Photocatalytic Activity

Inspired by the sulfur-rich environment found in active hydrogenase enzymes, a Ni-based proton reduction catalyst with pentadentate N 2 S 3 ligand was synthesised. When coupled with [Ru(bpy) 3 ] 2+ (bpy=2,2 '-bipyridine) as photosensitiser and ascorbate as electron donor in a 1:1 mixture of dimethylacetamide and aqueous ascorbic acid/ascorbate buffer, the catalyst showed improved photocatalytic activity compared with a homologous counterpart bearing a tetradentate N 2 S 2 ligand. The mechanistic pathway of photoinduced hydrogen evolution was comprehensively analysed through optical transient absorption and time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy, which revealed important electronic and structural changes in the catalytic system during photoirradiation. Furthermore, the Ni-II catalyst undergoes a photoinduced metal-centred reduction to form a Ni-I intermediate with distorted square-bipyramidal geometry. Further kinetic analyses revealed differences in charge-separation dynamics between the pentadentate and tetradentate forms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Feedstock and Catalyst Impact on Bio-Oil Production and FCC Co-Processing to Fuels

NREL's thermochemical biomass conversion research is focused on ex-situ upgrading of biomass fast-pyrolysis (FP) vapors as an efficient route to completely biogenic pyrolysis-based fuel precursors, fuels, and value-added chemicals depending on catalyst and process conditions. A near term pathway being developed uses these liquids for co-processing with petroleum feedstocks to assess biogenic carbon incorporation in hydrocarbon fuel feedstocks for potential refinery use. In this work, the impact of feedstock and catalyst on catalytic fast pyrolysis oil (CFPO) composition was determined with the oils then assessed for biogenic fuel production via FCC (fluidized catalytic cracking) co-processing. Biomass vapors were generated via fast pyrolysis with destabilizing vapor components (char, inorganics, tar aerosols) removed by hot gas filtration to produce clean vapors more responsive to catalytic upgrading. A Davison Circulating Riser (DCR), a petroleum industry standard for fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) catalyst evaluation, was coupled to a custom pyrolyzer system designed to produce consistent-composition pyrolysis vapors as feed to the DCR. Pyrolysis vapors, derived from pure hardwood and softwood, were upgraded using commercially available modified zeolite-based catalysts to produce CFPOs. These upgraded oils were analyzed via 31P and 13C NMR spectroscopy, GCxGC-TOF/MS, carbonyl and ultimate analysis (CHNO), and simulated distillation (SIMDIS) to assess both oil chemistry and distillation behavior as they relate to catalyst and feedstock type for producing fungible hydrocarbon product liquids. These exploratory vapor-phase-upgrading results demonstrated the feasibility of producing refinery-compatible hydrocarbon fuel intermediates entirely from biomass-derived fast-pyrolysis vapors using an industry-accepted DCR system for catalytic upgrading. The FCC co-processing results demonstrated the feasibility of using CFPOs with VGO feeds in FCC refinery operations to produce biogenic carbon containing fuels.

biogenic carbon↗

Testing electron–phonon coupling for the superconductivity in kagome metal CsV 3 Sb 5

In crystalline materials, electron-phonon coupling (EPC) is a ubiquitous many-body interaction that drives conventional Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer superconductivity. Recently, in a new kagome metal CsV 3 Sb 5 , superconductivity that possibly intertwines with time-reversal and spatial symmetry-breaking orders is observed. Density functional theory calculations predicted weak EPC strength, λ, supporting an unconventional pairing mechanism in CsV 3 Sb 5 . However, experimental determination of λ is still missing, hindering a microscopic understanding of the intertwined ground state of CsV 3 Sb 5 . Here, using 7-eV laser-based angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and Eliashberg function analysis, we determine an intermediate λ=0.45–0.6 at T = 6 K for both Sb 5p and V 3d electronic bands, which can support a conventional superconducting transition temperature on the same magnitude of experimental value in CsV3Sb5. Remarkably, the EPC on the V 3d-band enhances to λ~0.75 as the superconducting transition temperature elevated to 4.4 K in Cs(V 0.93 Nb 0.07 ) 3 Sb 5 . Our results provide an important clue to understand the pairing mechanism in the kagome superconductor CsV 3 Sb 5 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Physics-Based Spectra of Accretion Disks around Black Holes

The purpose of this grant was to begin the process of deriving the light output of accretion disks around black holes directly from the actual processes that inject heat into the accreting matter, rather than from guessed dependences of heating rate on physical parameters. At JHU, the effort has focussed so far on models of accretion onto "intermediate mass black holes", a possible class of black holes, examples of which may have recently been discovered in nearby galaxies. There, Krolik and his student (Yawei Hui) have computed stellar atmospheres for uniformly-heated disks around this class of black holes. Their models serve two purposes: they are the very first serious attempts to compute the spectrum from accreting black holes in this mass range; and a library of such models can be used later in this program as contrasts for those computed on the basis of real disk dynamics. The output from these local disk calculations has also been successfully coupled to a program that applies the appropriate relativistic transformations and computes photon trajectories in order to predict the spectrum received by observers located at different polar angles. The principal new result of these calculations is the discovery of potentially observable ionization edges of H-like C and O at frequencies near the peak in flux from these objects. Most of the grant money at UCSB was spent on supporting graduate student Shane Davis. In addition. some money was spent on supporting two other students: Ari Socrates (now a Hubble Fellow at Princeton), and Laura Melling. Davis spent the year constructing stellar atmosphere models of accretion disks appropriate for the high/soft (thermal) state of black hole X-ray binaries. As with AGN models published previously by our collaboration with NASA support. our models include a complete general relativistic treatment of both the disk structure and the propagation of photons from the disk to a distant observer. They also include all important continuum opacity sources, including Compton scattering and bound-free opacity from abundant metal species. The principal new result is that bound-free opacity is very significant in altering the continuum spectral shape, resulting for example in quite different "color correction factors" compared to those predicted previously. In addition, the models predict a relationship between luminosity and inner disk temperature that is, for the first time, in accord with that observed. The primary purpose of the grant was to incorporate more realistic accretion disk physics, learned largely from simulations, into such spectral models. The Davis et al. paper includes consideration of a vertical dissipation profile computed from radiation magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of MRI turbulence by N. J. Turner (2004). So long as the disk is effectively thick, such dissipation profiles do not affect the predicted spectrum significantly. (More work needs to be done on these simulations, however.) A potentially more serious issue is that MRI turbulence produces substantial inhomogeneities, as do photon bubble instabilities. These inhomogeneities can affect the spectra by enhancing the effects of absorption opacity over scattering opacity. We have done some preliminary Monte Carlo calculations to explore these effects.

Krolik, Julian H.↗

PCET‐Driven Reactivity of Neptunyl(VI) Yields Oxo‐Bridged Np(V) and Np(IV) Species

Two unconventional polynuclear complexes of neptunium (Np) featuring mono-mathematical equation -oxo motifs have been accessed by proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactivity involving the dissolution of neptunyl(VI) diacetate dihydrate (NpO 2 (OAc) 2 (H 2 O) 2 ∙ HOAc) in methanol followed by addition of a pentadentate Schiff-base ligand. One complex is a mixed-valent [Np V ,Np IV , Np V ] trimer with two bridging mathematical equation μ 2 -oxos and the other is a [Np V , Np V ] dimer featuring a single mathematical equation μ 2 -oxo. In both complexes the outer Np centers are capped with terminal oxo ligands. Spectroscopic and spectrokinetic studies aimed at elucidating mechanistic details of complex formation in this system show that intermediate multinuclear [Np V O 2 (OAc)] n species form prior to metal chelation by the ligand; electrolysis experiments demonstrate that production of Np(V) gives rise to asynchronous proton transfer that does not occur otherwise (in the Np(VI) state) as well as condensation with loss of H 2 O and formation of the polynuclear complexes. We attribute the oxo-deficient nature of these products, with respect to conventional actinyl ([AnO 2 ] m+ ) species, to the reduction/condensation reaction sequence of PCET.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exotic Reaction Dynamics in the Gas-Phase Preparation of Anthracene (C 14 H 10 ) via Spiroaromatic Radical Transients in the Indenyl–Cyclopentadienyl Radical–Radical Reaction

The gas-phase reaction between the 1-indenyl (C 9 H 7 •) and the cyclopentadienyl (C 5 H 5 •) radical has been investigated for the first time using synchrotron-based mass spectrometry coupled with a pyrolytic reactor. Soft photo-ionization with tunable vacuum ultraviolet photons afforded for the isomer-selective identification of the production of phenanthrene, anthracene, and benzofulvalene (C 14 H 10 ). The classical theory prevalent in the literature proposing that radicals combine only at their specific radical centers is challenged by our discovery of an unusual reaction pathway that involves a barrierless combination of a resonantly stabilized hydrocarbon radical with an aromatic radical at the carbon atom adjacent to the traditional C1 radical center; this unconventional addition is followed by substantial isomerization into phenanthrene and anthracene via a category of exotic spiroaromatic intermediates. Furthermore, this result leads to a deeper understanding of the evolution of the cosmic carbon budget and provides new methodologies for the bottom-up synthesis of unique spiro-aromatics that may be relevant for the synthesis of more complex aromatic carbon skeletons in deep space.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate-emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗