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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Overhead longwave infrared hyperspectral material identification using radiometric models

Material detection algorithms used in hyperspectral data processing are computationally efficient but can produce relatively high numbers of false positives. Material identification performed as a secondary processing step on detected pixels can help separate true and false positives. This paper presents a material identification processing chain for longwave infrared hyperspectral data of solid materials collected from airborne platforms. The algorithms utilize unwhitened radiance data and an iterative algorithm that determines the temperature, humidity, and ozone of the atmospheric profile. Pixel unmixing is done using constrained linear regression and Bayesian Information Criteria for model selection. The resulting product includes an optimal atmospheric profile and full radiance material model that includes material temperature, abundance values, and several fit statistics. A logistic regression method utilizing all model parameters to improve identification is also presented. This paper details the processing chain and provides justification for the algorithms used. Several examples are provided using modeled data at different noise levels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-omics Characterization of the Host Response to COVID-19

This project is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between investigators at PNNL with expertise in mass spectrometry (MS)-based omics technology development, omics measurement methods development and application, statistics, machine learning and integration of disparate datasets for a systems-level understanding, and expertise in pathogenic coronaviruses, and investigators at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison) with expertise in pathogenic respiratory viruses (e.g. influenza). The goal of this project is to obtain a comprehensive picture of the human host factors critical for the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will generate broad untargeted multi-omics profiles using both state-of-the-art and novel instrumentation and approaches to enable the identification of the molecular mechanisms and host response pathways that impact human COVID-19 outcomes. We anticipate these results will lead to the generation of biomarker panels that are predictive of disease outcomes and mechanistic hypotheses that can be further interrogated in future studies and will provide the basis for vaccine or therapeutic development. To do so, we are obtaining and analyzing blood samples from COVID-19 patients with a range of disease outcomes that were treated at the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Tokyo, Japan and other collaborating hospitals in our network. Specifically, this project will fund proteomics and metabolomics analyses of clinical COVID samples, machine learning-based integration of the data, and pathway-based interpretation of the data. This project was funded in June 2020. In the time span of June to September 2020, the project team developed an analytically and statistically robust analysis plan and made various preparations to facilitate sample receipt from our UW-Madison collaborators. This included blocking and randomization of sample prep orders, ordering of reagents and reference materials, and shipping of materials needed for preparation of the samples under BSL3 conditions to our collaborators at UW-Madison. As of FY21, this project has been picked up via a sponsor, the Naval Medical Research Center, which will cover the remainder of the proposed scope of work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hazard Detection Detector Cards

This report presents a comprehensive summary of five advanced anomaly detection tools developed and deployed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in support of the VA’s Health Information Technology modernization. These detectors—Order Path Tracker, Trend Watcher, Pain Pointer, Performance Monitor, and Patient Record Flag Detector—leverage statistical and machine learning methods to monitor workflow disruptions, detect anomalies in care sequences and volumes, identify bottlenecks, and track system-level performance metrics across VistA and Millennium systems. All detectors have been integrated into the Health Data Analytics Platform (HDAP), with most having completed deployment and testing using live data from targeted stations in cardiology and oncology domains. This work enhances VA’s capacity for proactive system surveillance, promotes patient safety, and informs data-driven operational improvements across the EHR ecosystem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Visualizations of Travel Time Performance Based on Vehicle Reidentification Data

This paper provides a visual reference of the breadth of arterial performance phenomena based on travel time measures obtained from reidentification technology that has proliferated in the past 5 years. These graphical performance measures are revealed through overlay charts and statistical distribution as revealed through cumulative frequency diagrams (CFDs). With overlays of vehicle travel times from multiple days, dominant traffic patterns over a 24-h period are reinforced and reveal the traffic behavior induced primarily by the operation of traffic control at signalized intersections. A cumulative distribution function in the statistical literature provides a method for comparing traffic patterns from various time frames or locations in a compact visual format that provides intuitive feedback on arterial performance. The CFD may be accumulated hourly, by peak periods, or by time periods specific to signal timing plans that are in effect. Combined, overlay charts and CFDs provide visual tools with which to assess the quality and consistency of traffic movement for various periods throughout the day efficiently, without sacrificing detail, which is a typical byproduct of numeric-based performance measures. These methods are particularly effective for comparing before-and-after median travel times, as well as changes in interquartile range, to assess travel time reliability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social Disparities of Pain and Pain Intensity Among Women Diagnosed With Early Stage Breast Cancer

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers among women in the United States and pain is the most common side effect of breast cancer and its treatment. Yet, the relationships between social determinants of pain and pain experience/intensity remain under-investigated. We examined the associations between social determinants of pain both at the individual level and the neighborhood level to understand how social conditions are associated with pain perception among early stage breast cancer patients. Methods: We conducted integrated statistical analysis of 1,191 women with early stage breast cancer treated at a large cancer center in Memphis, Tennessee. Combining electronic health records, patient-reported data and census data regarding residential address at the time of first diagnosis, we evaluated the relationships between social determinants and pain perception. Pain responses were self-reported by a patient as a numerical rating scale score at the patient’s initial diagnosis and follow-up clinical visits. We implemented two sets of statistical analyses of the zero-inflated Poisson model and estimated the associations between neighborhood poverty prevalence and breast cancer pain intensity. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, cancer stage, and chemotherapy, pain perception was significantly associated with poverty and blight level of the neighborhood. Results: Among women living in the highest-poverty areas, the odds of reporting pain were 2.48 times higher than those in the lowest-poverty area. Women living in the highest-blight area had 5.43 times higher odds of reporting pain than those in the lowest-blight area. Neighborhood-level social determinants were significantly associated with pain intensity among women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Conclusions: Distressed neighborhood conditions are significantly associated with higher pain perception. Breast cancer patients living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighborhoods and in poor environmental conditions reported higher pain severity compared to patients from less distressed neighborhoods. Therefore, post-diagnosis pain treatment design needs to be tailored to the social determinants of the breast cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Microfluidic-based mini-metagenomics enables discovery of novel microbial lineages from complex environmental samples

Metagenomics and single-cell genomics have enabled genome discovery from unknown branches of life. However, extracting novel genomes from complex mixtures of metagenomic data can still be challenging and represents an ill-posed problem which is generally approached with ad hoc methods. Here we present a microfluidic-based mini-metagenomic method which offers a statistically rigorous approach to extract novel microbial genomes while preserving single-cell resolution. We used this approach to analyze two hot spring samples from Yellowstone National Park and extracted 29 new genomes, including three deeply branching lineages. The single-cell resolution enabled accurate quantification of genome function and abundance, down to 1% in relative abundance. Our analyses of genome level SNP distributions also revealed low to moderate environmental selection. The scale, resolution, and statistical power of microfluidic-based mini-metagenomics make it a powerful tool to dissect the genomic structure of microbial communities while effectively preserving the fundamental unit of biology, the single cell.

Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2011

Measurement of the E+ E- to Pi+ Pi- (Gamma) Cross Section with the ISR Method with BaBar

A precision measurement of the cross section for the process e{sup +}e{sup -} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}({gamma}) is presented with the radiative return method with the high statistics data accumulated by BaBar at the {Upsilon}(4S). The luminosity is determined from the study of the corresponding leptonic process e{sup +}e{sup -} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}({gamma}), thus cancelling several factors and reducing the overall systematic uncertainty. Trigger, tracking, particle identification, and kinematic-fit {chi}{sup 2} efficiencies are evaluated from data in the same environment. Additional radiation from the initial and the final states is studied in both processes. The analysis covers the mass range between threshold and 5 GeV. Preliminary results are presented here between 0.5 and 3 GeV, with data samples of 513183 pion events and 445631 muon events. The systematic uncertainty in the main {rho} resonance region is 5.6 x 10{sup -3}. The measured mass dependent pion-pair cross section is compared with measurements from earlier experiments and used to compute the hadronic vacuum polarization contribution from the dominant {pi}{pi} channel to the muon magnetic anomaly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of dynamic radiation level changes using surface networks [Book Chapter]

The Fukushima nuclear accident reminds us of severe risk of radioactive substances. Citizen scientists voluntarily collect and share radiation data using geo-tagged sensors for radiation preparedness. However, radiation levels are affected by a number of factors including for example weather conditions, naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), and large marble structures. It is therefore difficult to determine whether a higher radiation level comes from a normal variation in background or not. This research analyzes the radiation changes using surface networks that can be used to characterize complex surfaces. A new algorithm has been developed to identify salient peaks and their hills by merging insignificant peaks recur-sively. Salient peaks and their hills are converted into graphs. The structural similarities of graphs were compared over time. The radiation measurements in the city of Koriyama, Japan were analyzed as a case study. The results demonstrated that structural analysis of dynamic radiation levels revealed stable changes, while numeric analysis of radiation levels presented statistically significant differences. This method is able to detect radiation level changes irrespective of background variations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Sylvester Graphical Lasso (SyGlasso)

This paper introduces the Sylvester graphical lasso (SyGlasso) that captures multiway dependencies present in tensor-valued data. The model is based on the Sylvester equation that defines a generative model. The proposed model complements the tensor graphical lasso that imposes a Kronecker sum model for the inverse covariance matrix by providing an alternative Kronecker sum model that is generative and interpretable. A nodewise regression approach is adopted for estimating the conditional independence relationships among variables. The statistical convergence of the method is established, and empirical studies are provided to demonstrate the recovery of meaningful conditional dependency graphs. Here we apply the SyGlasso to an electroencephalography (EEG) study to compare the brain connectivity of alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects. Here, we demonstrate that our model can simultaneously estimate both the brain connectivity and its temporal dependencies.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2012

Use of scaled BWR lower plenum boron mixing tests to qualify the boron transport model used in TRACG

In 2001 GEH applied best estimate methods combined with a statistical methodology to determine upper bound limits for key licensing parameters for anticipated operation occurrence (AOO) transient and anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) overpressure analyses for operating Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). The methodology was subsequently extended for ESBWR AOO, ATWS, loss of coolant, and stability analyses. GEH is extending the methodology to long-term ATWS analyses for the operating BWRs. A long-term ATWS scenario uses injection of borated water to achieve reactor shutdown. Predicting the mixing and transport of boron is important for calculating the impact on the key licensing parameters. For the many operating BWRs where the denser boron solution is injected into the lower plenum, stratification may occur, delaying boron transport to the core region. CFD modeling can be used to model the stratification and mixing of the boron solution, but such calculations are extremely computer intensive and not cost effective; therefore, a more-empirical approach supported by a theoretical scaling of the dominant phenomena and backed by test data and benchmark calculations is used. The paper presents the TRACG lower plenum boron transport model qualification effort. The scaling basis used to implement the TRACG boron transport model for BWR applications is discussed. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Robotic NDA of Holdup Deposits in Gaseous Diffusion Piping by Gamma Assay of Uranium-235 - 18331

This research exploits in-pipe access to develop robotically deployed, high-cadence, accurate, certain, paperless assay of U-235 in holdup deposits within process piping. Prior radiometric assay from outside the pipes suffered from manual deployment challenges, attenuation of detection through pipe walls, long counting times, approximate modeling, and shortfalls associated with transcription and human interpretation. These downsides limited the speed, quality, and economy of assay resulting in vast cost and budget consequences to D and D. D and D of outdated facilities cuts into these pipes as part of the demolition process, creating the unique, previously unexploited possibility of robotic in-pipe assay. The assay collimates radiation emanating from all but a short segment of pipe wall from reaching a gamma detector. Hence, the detector only views and measures source from a short segment of pipe at a given time. This is achieved by an innovative pair of collimating discs that are coaxial with the pipe and positioned fore and aft of the detector. The detector assembly is translated through pipes by an autonomous mobile robot. Beyond radiometric assay of U-235, the robot images and geometrically models the pipe interior and deposit appearance. The robot is recovered from the same pipe opening from which it is launched, hence it drives the same distance out and back, measuring the same deposits twice. This achieves redundant radiometric and odometric measurements which adds further to statistical significance of the method. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cosmic Voids in the SDSS DR12 BOSS Galaxy Sample: the Alcock–Paczyński test

We apply the Alcock–Paczyński (AP) test to stacked voids identified using the final data release (DR12) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We also use 1000 mock galaxy catalogs that match the geometry, density, and clustering properties of the BOSS sample in order to characterize the statistical uncertainties of our measurements and take into account systematic errors such as redshift space distortions. For both BOSS data and mock catalogs, we use the ZOBOV algorithm to identify voids, we stack together all voids with effective radii of 30--100 h{sup −1} Mpc in the redshift range of 0.43–0.7, and we accurately measure the shape of the stacked voids. Our tests with the mock catalogs show that we measure the stacked void ellipticity with a statistical precision of 2.6%. The stacked voids in redshift space are slightly squashed along the line of sight, consistent with previous studies. We repeat this measurement of stacked void shape in the BOSS data, assuming several values of Ω{sub m} within the flat ΛCDM model, and we compare this to the mock catalogs in redshift space to perform the AP test. We obtain a constraint of Ω{sub m}=0.38{sub −0.15}{sup +0.18} at the 68% confidence level from the AP test. We discuss the sources of statistical and systematic noise that affect the constraining power of this method. In particular, we find that the measured ellipticity of stacked voids changes more weakly with cosmology than the standard AP prediction, leading to significantly weaker constraints. We discuss how constraints will improve in future surveys with larger volumes and densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗