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Distributed Wind Controls: A Research Roadmap for Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

The Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL) project’s controls research area aims to expand the benefits from distributed wind (DW) generation assets beyond solely providing low cost power directly to consumers. To make distributed wind turbines operate more effectively there is a need for more advanced ways to control them, allowing power companies, businesses, and energy consumers to take advantage of the unique characteristics of wind energy. DW can contribute to the safe and secure operation of grid by providing services such as voltage regulation, frequency regulation, spinning reserves, and even black start capabilities. In the larger DER context where much of the research has focused around solar technologies, the inertia available in wind technologies has generally not been considered. For wind turbines to provide these services in an optimal and expanded way, development and demonstration of control methods and communication interfaces within a grid and microgrid framework are required. In this document, NREL led the literature review in collaboration with SNL, of DER controls-focused integration research to establish a baseline for the controls research under the MIRACL project to identify specific control functions to be focused on throughout this project. This literature review focused primarily on the control functions of variable distributed generation, largely pulling from past solar PV and battery controls works, with a specific focus on applicability for distributed wind energy systems. The goal of this document is to identify a research roadmap based on the open literature and past national laboratory works to inform advanced wind turbine and power electronics control functions for four use cases: 1) distributed wind in isolated systems, 2) grid-connected microgrids (wind-hybrid systems and islanded operation), 3) behind-the-meter distributed wind applications in the power distribution systems, and 4) front-of-the-meter distributed wind applications in the power distribution systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impact of the 2017 Solar Eclipse on the Smart Grid

With the increasing interest in using solar energy as a major contributor to the use of renewable generation, and with the focus on using smart grids to optimize the use of electrical energy based on demand and resources from different locations, the need arises to know the moons position in the sky with respect to the sun. When a solar eclipse occurs, the moon disk might totally or partially shade the sun disk, which can affect the irradiance level from the sun disk, consequently affecting a resource on the electric grid. The moons position can then provide smart grid users with information about how potential total or partial solar eclipses might affect different locations on the grid so that other resources on the grid can be directed to where they might be needed when such phenomena occurs. At least five solar eclipses occur yearly at different locations on Earth, they can last 3 hours or more depending on the location, and they can affect smart grid users. On August 21, 2017, a partial and full solar eclipse occurred in many locations in the United States, including at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. Solar irradiance measurements during the eclipse were compared to the data generated by a model for validation at eight locations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Waste is our Product. Developing, Implementing and Optimising Waste Management at Dounreay - 19039

The UK's Fast Breeder Reactor Research programme was centred at Dounreay, in the very north of Scotland, from 1955. Since 1994, the site has been focused on decommissioning, and represents one of the most complex, technically challenging and hazardous nuclear clean-up projects in Europe. Since 2012, Dounreay Site Restoration Ltd (DSRL) has been contracted by the NDA as the Site License Company to deliver the defined scope of work, under a Target Cost contract, to decommission the site to achieve the Interim End State by 2030-2033, whilst managing the transition of its people. All parties, including DSRL's Parent Body Organisation Cavendish Dounreay Partnership Ltd (a consortium of Cavendish Nuclear, AECOM, and Jacobs), recognise that there are significant technical and regulatory challenges to achieve this, as well as safely managing the transition for our workforce on what is effectively a 'closure' contract. The product of decommissioning is waste; over the course of the programme, a full range of higher activity and lower level radioactive wastes will be generated, and must be safely managed. This paper will address: - The Policy issues relating to radioactive waste management at Dounreay, including particular issues relating to implementation of Scottish policy, including how Waste Management is Optimised. - An overview of the decommissioning programme and the delivery of an Interim End State; - The type, range and nature of radioactive wastes requiring safe management at Dounreay; - Higher Activity Wastes (HAW): - Setting higher activity waste strategy; defining products and interim storage requirements; - Technical, regulatory and stakeholder issues for HAW strategy; - Lower Activity Wastes: - Setting Low Level Waste (LLW) strategy; defining a disposal product and development and status for Dounreay's LLW Disposal Vaults; - Implementing LLW strategy; - Technical, regulatory and stakeholder issues for LLW strategy; - Optimising Waste Management -Optimising waste from generation (from decommissioning workfaces) through to disposal -why, and how; - The Waste Informed Decommissioning model as a methodology and approach; - Impact and importance of Waste Management on a target cost contract; - Establishment of a Waste Optimisation Programme to drive ownership, delivery and culture change; - Management responsibilities and informing organisational design; - Sharing and learning from Best Practice; - The Challenge - how to ensure workforce and teams are engaged in delivering optimisation requirements; - Conclusions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Comprehensive Comparison of Methods for Evaluating Dispatch of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems Models

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a pivotal role in the transformation of electricity grids with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind. However, the weather-dependent nature of VRE introduces challenges for grid balancing and stability, which LDES - along with short-duration energy storage (SDES) - can help address. However, modeling LDES in production cost models (PCMs) is particularly challenging due to the need for high temporal resolution over extended optimization windows while preserving chronology, which ensures the alignment of energy storage operations with VRE generation over multi-day periods. This report compares traditional dispatch methods with advanced LDES dispatch strategies, such as the extended horizon approach, across different PCM platforms and examines tradeoffs and scalability. The comparison reveals that the traditional 1-day optimization horizon within the PCM leads to inefficient utilization of LDES. In contrast, extending the optimization horizon as much as possible significantly reduces curtailment and improves storage dispatch, especially in renewable-dense systems. There is also promise in using state-of-charge or end volume targets set by an external model, however this requires an additional modeling set and generally increases computational burden. This paper presents a comparison of these various methods in a number of power systems, showing algorithms initially in small test systems and scaling up to large, country-wide simulations. Overall, the research presents the trade-offs of various computational methods and illustrates how LDES may play an essential role in power systems of the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Harnessing Condorcet Methods to Improve Decision-making Based on Ranked Data

Decision-makers must often choose between multiple alternatives based on their relative merits across a variety of criteria. These multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems must be approached in an objective, measurable, and transparent fashion to obtain well-supported outcomes. The challenge of using sets of ranked data to identify the optimal choice is not unlike the challenge of using ranked ballots to identify the winner of an election in a preference voting system. As such, the methods of rank aggregation used in elections can be applied to help resolve MCDM problems. Previous research into the design of elections and ballots has yielded many algorithms with well-understood properties. A subset of these, called Condorcet methods, reliably identify the “Condorcet winner,” if it exists, giving the result that would defeat any other in a pairwise comparison. That, in addition to several other desirable qualities, makes Condorcet methods like the Schulze method, Ranked Pairs, and Copeland’s method, effective and scalable means for tackling MCDM problems. These rank aggregation methods have been implemented in JavaScript functions for incorporation into a web-based MCDM decision tool. These algorithms can be applied in a wide variety of contexts (for example, determining the “best” environmental remediation method or selecting a subcontractor) to facilitate effective decision-making. The performance of the JavaScript Condorcet prototype tool was compared across the implemented algorithms and with both a non-Condorcet rank aggregation method as well as an implementation of the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) algorithm.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generating wind power scenarios for probabilistic ramp event prediction using multivariate statistical post-processing

Wind power forecasting is gaining international significance as more regions promote policies to increase the use of renewable energy. Wind ramps, large variations in wind power production during a period of minutes to hours, challenge utilities and electrical balancing authorities. A sudden decrease in wind-energy production must be balanced by other power generators to meet energy demands, while a sharp increase in unexpected production results in excess power that may not be used in the power grid, leading to a loss of potential profits. In this study, we compare different methods to generate probabilistic ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model with up to 12h of lead time at two tall-tower locations in the United States. We validate model performance using 21 months of 80m wind speed observations from towers in Boulder, Colorado, and near the Columbia River gorge in eastern Oregon. We employ four statistical post-processing methods, three of which are not currently used in the literature for wind forecasting. These procedures correct biases in the model and generate short-term wind speed scenarios which are then converted to power scenarios. This probabilistic enhancement of HRRR point forecasts provides valuable uncertainty information of ramp events and improves the skill of predicting ramp events over the raw forecasts. We compute Brier skill scores for each method with regard to predicting up- and down-ramps to determine which method provides the best prediction. We find that the Standard Schaake shuffle method yields the highest skill at predicting ramp events for these datasets, especially for up-ramp events at the Oregon site. Increased skill for ramp prediction is limited at the Boulder, CO, site using any of the multivariate methods because of the poor initial forecasts in this area of complex terrain. These statistical methods can be implemented by wind farm operators to generate a range of possible wind speed and power scenarios to aid and optimize decisions before ramp events occur.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimization of a Mixed Fleet of Aerial Drones for Medical Supplies: A Case Study of Blood Delivery Logistics

Aerial drones have emerged as an innovative solution for faster transportation of time-sensitive items (e.g., emergency medical supplies), potentially reducing the transmission of contagious diseases and enhancing healthcare availability through contactless autonomous delivery. We study fleet sizing and efficient scheduling of a mixed fleet of drones for delivering time-sensitive medical items having distinct release and due times to minimize the required fleet size and fleet composition, the required number of additional batteries, and the total energy consumption. We continuously track the remaining battery energy of drones to determine the optimal timing for battery replacement, rather than replacing the battery at each node. Using actual drone flight test data, we employed a machine learning (ML) method to estimate the energy consumption of different drone types during flight segments for different operating parameters. We present a novel mixed-integer programming model to efficiently formulate the problem that integrates the estimated energy consumption functions from ML. We propose a new greedy heuristic (GH) algorithm and a customized genetic algorithm (GA) for solving large-scale instances of this problem faster. Results demonstrate that the GH algorithm is substantially faster than the accelerated CPLEX and the GA, while sacrificing the solution quality by a small amount. Results based on an actual blood sample delivery case study from Pendleton, Oregon, United States, show that using a mixed fleet of drones reduces the total cost and total energy consumption up to 18.18% and 28.7%, respectively, compared to using a homogeneous fleet.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

Development of the Mathematics of Learning Curve Models for Evaluating Small Modular Reactor Economics

The cost of nuclear power is a straightforward yet complicated topic. It is straightforward in that the cost of nuclear power is a function of the cost to build the nuclear power plant, the cost to operate and maintain it, and the cost to provide fuel for it. It is complicated in that some of those costs are not necessarily known, introducing uncertainty into the analysis. For large light water reactor (LWR)-based nuclear power plants, the uncertainty is mainly contained within the cost of construction. The typical costs of operations and maintenance (O&M), as well as fuel, are well known based on the current fleet of LWRs. However, the last currently operating reactor to come online was Watts Bar 1 in May 1996; thus, the expected construction costs for gigawatt (GW)-class reactors in the United States are based on information nearly two decades old. Extrapolating construction, O&M, and fuel costs from GW-class LWRs to LWR-based small modular reactors (SMRs) introduces even more complication. The per-installed-kilowatt construction costs for SMRs are likely to be higher than those for the GW-class reactors based on the property of the economy of scale. Generally speaking, the economy of scale is the tendency for overall costs to increase slower than the overall production capacity. For power plants, this means that doubling the power production capacity would be expected to cost less than twice as much. Applying this property in the opposite direction, halving the power production capacity would be expected to cost more than half as much. This can potentially make the SMRs less competitive in the electricity market against the GW-class reactors, as well as against other power sources such as natural gas and subsidized renewables. One factor that can potentially aid the SMRs in achieving economic competitiveness is an economy of numbers, as opposed to the economy of scale, associated with learning curves. The basic concept of the learning curve is that the more a new process is repeated, the more efficient the process can be made. Assuming that efficiency directly relates to cost means that the more a new process is repeated successfully and efficiently, the less costly the process can be made. This factor ties directly into the factory fabrication and modularization aspect of the SMR paradigm—manufacturing serial, standardized, identical components for use in nuclear power plants can allow the SMR industry to use the learning curves to predict and optimize deployment costs. Thus, SMR deployment cost estimates can be modeled using learning curve theory to provide some insight into how and when SMRs would be competitive with both the GW-class reactors and other mutual competitors. However, assuming static learning curve behavior for all aspects of SMR construction is likely an invalid approach—not all components and systems in SMRs will be subject to learning, and those that are subject to learning may not learn at the same rate. A learning curvebased model must be capable of tracking these unique behaviors. At the same time, the behavior of the aggregated and integrated SMR deployment is a more useful metric for discussion and comparison—ultimately, the most useful learning curve information is that which describes power plant deployment as a whole. Therefore, the goal of SMR component and systems learning modeling includes a method to produce an overall power plant learning model. This report describes the mathematics of learning curves that can be used for estimating unit cost in future production for individual components and aggregated systems. All necessary assumptions are provided to support the derivations presented. Future work will demonstrate the implementation of this methodology and provide example calculations of SMR cost

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electrolyzers in the System Advisor Model (SAM): A Techno-Economic Potential Study

A technoeconomic analysis of grid to low temperature electrolysis (Grid-LTE), photovoltaic to low temperature electrolysis (PV-LTE), concentrating solar power to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-HTSE) and a concentrating solar power with PV to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-PV-HTSE) centralized hydrogen production systems are analyzed to assess the economics of system and to provide a baseline for comparing these technologies against hydrogen production cost targets. A framework integrating the system advisor model (SAM) and US Department of Energy hydrogen production models (H2A) is developed to assess these systems. The hydrogen levelized cost given current and future assumptions for technology cost and performance is evaluated at optimal system configurations. The framework described in this report integrates SAM with H2A electrolyzer technologies and provides analysts a detailed technoeconomic method to analyze concentrating and photovoltaic solar technologies to produce energy that are directly coupled to LTE and HTSEs that use that energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The baseline hydrogen levelized cost (HLCs) for the GRID-LTE, PV-LTE, CSP-HTSE, and CSP-PV-HTSE systems in Daggett, CA are 2.82, 3.86, 3.68, and 2.90 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 and 2.50, 2.13, 2.84, 2.15 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 in the 2020 and 2050 scenarios respectively. To achieve the $\$$2/kg H2 target in locations with excellent solar resources, cost parameters values aligned with aggressive R&D targets will need to be achieved for all the systems configurations. In Daggett, PV costs of $\$$0.68 /Wac or moderate ATB PV CAPEX projections result in HLCs of $\$$2 /kg H2. Similarly for PV-MSALT-HTSE systems, $\$$0.60 /Wac result in $\$$2/kg H2. For the MSALT-HTSE systems, better than aggressive 2050 ATB salt tower CAPEX projections would be needed to reach $\$$2/kg H2. Molten salt tower capital costs of $\$$2400/kW would enable $\$$2/kg H2 in 2050.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Mars Sample Return (MSR) Sample Receiving Facility (SRF) Assessment Study (MSAS)

NASA, in partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA), is seeking to return Martian geological and atmospheric samples to Earth for scientific study in the early 2030s. Due to the possibility that the samples could contain extraterrestrial life, Mars Sample Return (MSR) is classified as a Category V: Restricted Earth Return mission by the NASA Planetary Protection Office. As a result of this classification, a MSR Sample Receiving Facility (SRF) must not only provide a pristine environment to ensure samples are protected from terrestrial contamination for scientific investigations, it must also provide high-containment (biosafety level 4 [BSL-4]-equivalence) to isolate the samples from Earth’s biosphere until the samples are deemed safe for release and/or sterilized. The nominal utilization period for a SRF is anticipated to be 2-5 years and is intended to enable curation activities, biohazard assessment, select early science activities, and the rapid release of samples to the scientific community. However, to account for possible delays in schedule or the identification of extant life, this anticipated period of time must be flexible to accommodate schedule extensions and contingency plans. Due to requirements for high-level biological containment and cleanliness, a traditional receiving/curation facility cannot be utilized for MSR. Therefore, beginning in 2022, NASA Johnson Space Center is performing a MSR SRF Assessment Study (MSAS) to investigate the most optimal facility modality for a MSR SRF, as well as start to define programmatic early estimate of costs and schedules before the initial design phase begins. NASA is partnering with industry contractors (architectural and engineering firms with BSL-4 and cleanroom technology experience, as well as other contracted infrastructure and construction specialists) along with selected experts from NASA, ESA, existing U.S. BSL-4 facilities, and other U.S. government agencies, to carry out the assessment study. The MSAS should also aid in the future refinement of the science requirements (e.g., contamination control, equipment accommodations) before site-specific design would commence. As part of the MSAS, NASA is planning to assess an array of possibilities for a MSR SRF. One of the main considerations is the facility modality and whether an existing BSL-4 facility can be utilized (for some or all functions); or, if new constructure would be required, would a traditional fixed facility or a modular facility the best choice. MSAS will also investigate the ability of the modalities to accommodate two different facility capability endmembers: 1) a minimal facility focusing on biohazard assessment and curation tasks with a small footprint, and 2) an enhanced facility with additional capabilities to enable expedited processing and the completion of time-sensitive and (some) sterilization-sensitive science. The assessment is intended to generate information that will inform the selection of facility modalities for high-level conceptual design development. While the assessment study will focus on SRF requirements for accommodating curation, science, and sample safety assessment infrastructure, it will also consider an array of other factors, such as ease of access for international users, decommissioning, repurposing, future sale or lease following MSR’s use of the facility, and uncontained preparatory laboratory spaces. Upon completion of the study, the preferred modality and refined requirements would be utilized for site-specific design but will not be finalized until NASA’s completion of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process.

A.D. Harrington↗

Capabilities Development: From International Space Station and the Moon to Mars

The President of the United States, in signing Space Policy Directive-1, directed the NASA Administrator “to lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.” NASA is charged to land American astronauts on the lunar South Pole in 2024 and to continue a campaign of sustainable lunar surface exploration in order to develop necessary technologies and capabilities to enable initial human missions to Mars. NASA’s lunar surface exploration plans are part of a continuum of activities utilizing platforms in low Earth orbit (LEO), cislunar space, and the lunar surface to demonstrate advanced technologies, advance operations concepts, and develop countermeasures to lessen the impacts of the space environment and long duration exposure on the crew working in space. NASA is using a capability-driven approach to identify critical gaps to be addressed as part of a focused program to reduce risk for future deep space exploration missions building to eventual human missions to the surface of Mars. Teams of discipline experts from across NASA identify capability gaps between the current state of the art and the needs of proposed exploration missions and develop integrated strategies and roadmaps for filling those gaps. These inputs include assessment of platform needs for demonstration and testing of new capabilities. Generally, the International Space Station (ISS) and Gateway are needed for demonstration of capabilities for Mars transit, while Lunar surface activities focus on development of capabilities and operational protocols for Mars surface. This paper discusses the activities required to advance critical exploration capabilities, focusing on selection of demonstration and test location based upon the unique environments and characteristics of the ISS, Gateway, and potential lunar surface assets. The optimal strategy will be a combination of ISS/LEO, Gateway, and lunar surface testing; however, not all capabilities require a deep space exploration missions.

Boggs, Kathleen Gallagher↗

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The path to clean energy: direct coupling of nuclear and renewable technologies for thermal and electrical applications

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recognizes the need to transform the energy infrastructure of the U.S. and elsewhere to systems that can significantly reduce environmental impacts in an efficient and economically viable manner while utilizing both clean energy generation sources and hydrocarbon resources. Thus, DOE is supporting research and development that could lead to more efficient utilization of clean nuclear and renewable energy generation sources. A concept being advanced by the DOE Offices of Nuclear Energy (NE) and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is tighter coupling of nuclear and renewable energy sources in a manner that better optimizes energy use for the combined electricity, industrial manufacturing, and the transportation sectors. This integration concept has been referred to as a “hybrid system” that is capable of providing energy (thermal or electrical) where it is needed, when it is needed. For the purposes of this work, the hybrid system would integrate two or more energy resources to generate two or more products, one of which must be an energy commodity, such as electricity or transportation fuel. This definition requires coupling of subsystems ‘‘behind’’ the electrical transmission bus, where energy flows are dynamically apportioned as necessary to meet demand and the system has a single connection to the grid that provides dispatchable electricity as required while capital intensive generation assets operate at full capacity. Development of integrated energy systems for an “energy park” must carefully consider the intended location and the associated regional resources, traditional industrial processes, energy delivery infrastructure, and markets to identify viable region-specific system configurations. This paper will provide an overview of the current status of regional hybrid energy system design, development and application of dynamic analysis tools to assess technical and economic performance, and roadmap development to identify and prioritize component, subsystem and system testing that will lead to prototype demonstration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Economic viability of using thermal energy storage for flexible carbon capture on natural gas power plants

Fossil fuel-based power plants generate 80% of the electricity in the United States and provide a reliable generation source for both base and peak power demands. These plants are expected to adapt to changes in environmental policies that will require carbon management with carbon capture and storage (CCS) representing a possible solution. Current solvent-based CCS has a detrimental impact on a power plant's performance due to large heat loads required for carbon capture solvent regeneration. This parasitic load restricts the power plant's output and operation flexibility. Therefore, this study evaluates the feasibility of using thermal storage technologies for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants coupled with CCS to minimize the impact of solvent regeneration and enable the plant to operate at peak power output. Thermal storage can minimize the impact of CCS on the power plant by providing the heat load required for solvent regeneration during times of peak demand which will allow the plant to operate unrestricted and at full power. In total, fifteen unique thermal storage configurations were evaluated from three thermal storage categories: Brayton cycle heat pump, vapor compression heat pump, and heat recovery steam generator steam extraction for storage. The viability of these systems was determined by evaluating each configuration on thousands of real-world Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) profiles from the New York Independent System Operator and California Independent System Operator electricity markets using a techno-economic analysis. Afterwards, results were compared to the performance of a base power plant (NGCC with CCS and no thermal storage) to determine the impact of thermal storage on power plant economics. Overall, six of the thermal storage configurations performed better than base CCS enabled power plant on between 11.5% and 38.7% of the LMP signals evaluated. The best performing configuration was a vapor compression heat pump that used flue gas as the working fluid and had both hot and cold thermal storage units. This configuration performed better than the base CCS power plant on 38.7% of the LMP profiles. The results of this study show thermal storage can mitigate the economic impact of carbon capture solvent regeneration on NGCC power plants. Discussion focuses on the impact of electricity pricing on the optimal thermal storage system, the advantages and disadvantages of the systems evaluated, and identifies limitations with the study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Validation of gamma-ray detection techniques for safeguards monitoring at natural uranium conversion facilities

Recent IAEA circulars and policy papers have sought to implement safeguards when any purified aqueous uranium solution or uranium oxides suitable for isotopic enrichment or fuel fabrication exists. Under the revised policy, IAEA Policy Paper 18, the starting point for nuclear material under safeguards was reinterpreted, suggesting that purified uranium compounds should be subject to safeguards procedures no later than the first point in the conversion process. In response to this technical need, a combination of simulation models and experimental measurements were employed to develop and validate concepts of nondestructive assay monitoring systems in a natural uranium conversion plant (NUCP). In particular, uranyl nitrate (UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 ) solution exiting solvent extraction was identified as a key measurement point (KMP), where gamma-ray spectroscopy was selected as the process monitoring tool. The Uranyl Nitrate Calibration Loop Equipment (UNCLE) facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory was employed to simulate the full-scale operating conditions of a purified uranium-bearing aqueous stream exiting the solvent extraction process in an NUCP. Nondestructive assay techniques using gamma-ray spectroscopy were evaluated to determine their viability as a technical means for drawing safeguards conclusions at NUCPs, and if the IAEA detection requirements of 1 significant quantity (SQ) can be met in a timely way. This work investigated gamma-ray signatures of uranyl nitrate circulating in the UNCLE facility and evaluated various gamma-ray detector sensitivities to uranyl nitrate. These detector validation activities include assessing detector responses to the uranyl nitrate gamma-ray signatures for spectrometers based on sodium iodide, lanthanum bromide, and high-purity germanium detectors. The results of measurements under static and dynamic operating conditions at concentrations ranging from 10–90 g U/L of natural uranyl nitrate are presented. A range of gamma-ray lines is examined, including attenuation for transmission measurement of density and concentration. It was determined that transmission-corrected gamma-ray spectra provide a reliable way to monitor the 235 U concentration of uranyl nitrate solution in transfer pipes in NUCPs. Furthermore, existing predictive and analysis methods are adequate to design and realize practical designs. The 137 Cs transmission source employed in this work is viable but not optimal for 235 U densitometry determination. Validated simulations assessed the viability of 133 Ba and 57Co as alternative densitometry sources. All three gamma-ray detectors are viable for monitoring natural uranium feed; although high-purity germanium is easiest to interpret, it is, however, the least attractive as an installation instrument. Overall, for monitoring throughput in a facility such as UNCLE, emulating the uranium concentration and pump speeds of the Springfields conversion facility in the United Kingdom, an uncertainty of less than 0.17% is required in order to detect the diversion of 1 SQ of uranyl nitrate through changes in uranium concentration over an accountancy period of one year with a detection probability of 50%. As a result, calibrated gamma-ray detection systems are capable of determining the concentration of uranium content in NUCPs, it is only in combination with verifiable operator declarations and supporting data, such as flow rate and enrichment, that safeguards conclusions can be drawn.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Dynamic land use implications of rapidly expanding and evolving wind power deployment

Abstract The expansion of wind power poses distinct and varied geographic challenges to a sustainable energy transition. However, current knowledge of its land use impacts and synergies is limited by reliance on static characterizations that overlook the role of turbine technology and plant design in mediating interactions with the environment. Here, we investigate how wind technology development and innovation have shaped landscape interactions with social and ecological systems within the United States and contribute to evolving land area requirements. This work assesses trends in key land use facets of wind power using a holistic set of metrics to establish an evidence base that researchers, technology designers, land use managers, and policymakers can use in envisioning how future wind-intensive energy systems may be jointly optimized for clean energy, social, and environmental objectives. Since 2000, we find dynamic land occupancy patterns and regional trends that are driven by advancing technology and geographic factors. Though most historical U.S. wind deployment has been confined to the temperate grassland biome in the nation’s interior, regional expansion has implicated diverse land use and cover types. A large percentage of the typical wind plant footprint (∼96% to > 99%) is not directly impacted by permanent physical infrastructure, allowing for multiple uses in the spaces between turbines. Surprisingly, turbines are commonly close to built structures. Moreover, rangeland and cropland have supported 93.4% of deployment, highlighting potential synergies with agricultural lands. Despite broadly decreasing capacity densities, offsetting technology improvements have stabilized power densities. Land use intensity, defined as the ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation of wind facilities, has also trended downwards. Although continued deployment on disturbed lands, and in close proximity to existing wind facilities and other infrastructure, could minimize the extent of impacts, ambitious decarbonization trajectories may predispose particular biomes to cumulative effects and risks from regional wind power saturation. Increased land-use and sustainability feedback in technology and plant design will be critical to sustainable management of wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗