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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Making Phase-Picking Neural Networks More Consistent and Interpretable

Improving the interpretability of phase-picking neural networks remains an important task to facilitate their deployment to routine, real-time seismic monitoring. The popular phase-picking neural networks published in the literature lack interpretability because their output prediction scores do not necessarily correspond with the reliability of phase picks and can even be highly inconsistent depending on how we window the waveform data. Here, we show that systematically shifting the waveforms during training and using an antialiasing filter within the neural network architecture can substantially improve the consistency of the output prediction scores and can even make them scale with the signal-to-noise ratios of the waveforms. We demonstrate the improvements by applying these approaches to a commonly used phase-picking neural network architecture and using waveform data from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fiber Optic Instrumentation in High Temperature Irradiation Environments

The extremely harsh conditions of advanced reactor designs pose serious challenges for nuclear fuels and materials. Traditional instrumentation (thermocouples, strain gauges, etc.) are not well suited for extended operation in such a harsh environment. This work discusses the potential for using fiber optic-based instrumentation in high temperature irradiation experiments. The primary limitation of fiber optic instrumentation in irradiation experiments is signal darkening due to attenuation in the fiber material. A computational model has been developed to predict broadband optical attenuation in fused silica fiber materials as a function of time, temperature, and dose. Preliminary results obtained using this model are shown for one cycle of irradiation in the high flux isotope reactor at various temperatures. An irradiation campaign has been initiated to provide temperature-dependent optical attenuation data at high dose in order to validate the predictive model. Demonstration of the safety and reliability of new and enhanced nuclear fuels and materials is essential for improving the safety and reliability of existing nuclear power plants and for the licensing and operation of advanced nuclear reactor technologies. Experimental validation of fuel performance codes requires high fidelity measurements during instrumented irradiation experiments. Therefore, a clear need exists for sensors of unprecedented accuracy, resolution, time/space/energy spectrum dependence, reduced size, and, perhaps most importantly, performance in harsh environments. The harsh environment during accelerated irradiation testing could include temperatures from 300 deg. C up to 2600 deg. C, and radiation damage levels ranging from 1 to greater than 100 dpa. Optical fiber-based sensors are a promising candidate for instrumentation in high temperature irradiation environments. Optical fibers are small, inexpensive, chemically inert, immune to electromagnetic interference, and made of high temperature radiation-hard materials. The ability to make distributed measurements of temperature or strain using a single inexpensive optical fiber currently exists for non-extreme environments as commercially available technology. Other advanced sensing technologies such as laser ultrasound, borescopes, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy use fiber optic light delivery as a critical component of the sensor design. Some potential applications for optical fiber-based sensors in instrumented irradiation experiments include in-situ measurements of thermal conductivity, ultrasonic measurement of elastic constants (with fiber optic delivery of signal for generation and detection of ultrasonic wave), and distributed measurements of temperature and/or strain (i.e., swelling). The primary limitation for the use of optical technologies for harsh environment (e.g., high neutron flux reactor environments) instrumentation is the attenuation of the light signal due to the effects of temperature and/or irradiation. This work summarizes initial efforts towards developing a predictive model of temperature-dependent radiation-induced attenuation in fused silica optical fibers at high dose. If there is adequate transmission in the fibers, fiber optic-based instrumentation could provide highly accurate distributed measurements during instrumented fuel/material irradiation experiments. Preliminary results show attenuation on the order of 5- 10 dB/m in the wavelength range of 750-900 nm at temperatures of 300 deg. C and below after one HFIR cycle (24 days). At higher temperatures (600 and 900 deg. C), the attenuation is reduced below 5 dB/m in the same wavelength range. This amount of attenuation is acceptable for most fiber optic based sensor systems with a dynamic range on the order of 20-50 dB for a reasonable length (1-2 meters) of fiber in the high flux region. Many optical components use a wavelength of 850 nm, which lies in the low attenuation window. In order to refine and ultimately validate the predictive model of optical fiber attenuation, a reactor irradiation campaign has been initiated. Rabbit irradiation capsules have been designed to irradiate optical fiber material (low and high OH fused silica, as well as single crystal sapphire) specimens in the HFIR at temperatures ranging from 100 to 1200 deg. C. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)

Power modeling, widely applied for health monitoring and power prediction, is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. The most common approach for power modeling uses a physical equivalent circuit model, with the core challenge being the estimation of model parameters. Traditional parameter estimation either relies on datasheet information, which does not reflect the system's current health status, especially for degraded PV systems, or requires additional I-V characterization, which is generally unavailable for large-scale PV systems. Thus, we build upon our previously developed tool, PV-Pro (originally proposed for degradation analysis), to enhance its application for power modeling of degraded PV systems. PV-Pro extracts model parameters from production data without requiring I-V characterization. This dynamic model, periodically updated, can closely capture the actual degradation status, enabling precise power modeling. PV-Pro is compared with popular power modeling techniques, including persistence, nominal physical, and various machine learning models. The results indicate that PV-Pro achieves outstanding power modeling performance, with an average nMAE of 1.4 % across four field-degraded PV systems, reducing error by 17.6 % compared to the best alternative technique. Furthermore, PV-Pro demonstrates robustness across different seasons and severities of degradation. The tool is available as a Python package at https://github.com/DuraMAT/pvpro.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Effective Diffusion Coefficients in Mudrocks Using a Fractal Model and Small-Angle Neutron Scattering Measurements

The determination of effective diffusion coefficients of gases or solutes in the water–saturated pore space of mudrocks is time consuming and technically challenging. Yet, reliable values of effective diffusion coefficients are important to predict migration of hydrocarbon gases in unconventional reservoirs, dissipation of (explosive) gases through clay barriers in radioactive waste repositories, mineral alteration of seals to geological CO 2 storage reservoirs and contaminant migration through aquitards. In this study, small angle and very small angle neutron scattering techniques have been utilized to determine a range of transport properties in mudrocks, including porosity, pore size distributions and surface and volume fractal dimensions of pores and grains, from which diffusive transport parameters can be estimated. Using a fractal model derived from Archie's Law, we calculate effective diffusion coefficients from these parameters and compare them to laboratory–derived effective diffusion coefficients for CO 2 , H 2 , CH 4 and HTO on either the same or related mudrock samples. The samples include Opalinus Shale from the underground laboratory in Mont Terri, Switzerland; Boom Clay from a core drilled in Mol, Belgium and a marine claystone cored in Utah, USA. The predicted values were compared to laboratory diffusion measurements. The measured and modeled diffusion coefficients show good agreement, differing generally by less than factor 5. Furthermore, neutron or X–ray scattering analysis is therefore proposed as a novel method for fast, accurate estimation of effective diffusion coefficients in mudrocks, together with simultaneous measurement of multiple transport parameters including porosity, pore size distributions and surface areas, important for (reactive) transport modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Code validation for the simulation of supersonic viscous flow about the F-16XL

The viewgraphs and discussion on code validation for the simulation of supersonic viscous flow about the F-16XL are provided. Because of the large potential gains related to laminar flow on the swept wings of supersonic aircraft, interest in the applications of laminar flow control (LFC) techniques in the supersonic regime has increased. A supersonic laminar flow control (SLFC) technology program is currently underway within NASA. The objective of this program is to develop the data base and design methods that are critical to the development of laminar flow control technology for application to supersonic transport aircraft design. Towards this end, the program integrates computational investigations underway at NASA Ames-Moffett and NASA Langley with flight-test investigations being conducted on the F-16XL at the NASA Ames-Dryden Research Facility in cooperation with Rockwell International. The computational goal at NASA Ames-Moffett is to integrate a thin-layer Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes flow solver with a stability analysis code. The flow solver would provide boundary layer profiles to the stability analysis code which in turn would predict transition on the F-16XL wing. To utilize the stability analysis codes, reliable boundary layer data is necessary at off-design cases. Previously, much of the prediction of boundary layer transition has been accomplished through the coupling of boundary layer codes with stability theory. However, boundary layer codes may have difficulties at high Reynolds numbers, of the order of 100 million, and with the current complex geometry in question. Therefore, a reliable code which solves the thin-layer Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations is needed. Two objectives are discussed, the first in greater depth. The first objective is method verification, via comparisons of computations with experiment, of the reliability and robustness of the code. To successfully implement LFC techniques to the F-16XL wing, the flow about the leading edge must be maintained as laminar flow. Therefore, the second objective is to focus on a series of numerical simulations with different values of angle of attack, alpha, and Reynolds numbers. The purpose of the simulations is to study their effects on the two main factors which precipitate transition to turbulence at leading edges of highly swept wings (e.g., 'spanwise contamination' and 'crossflow instability').

Flores, Jolen↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. • Chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed. • The forecast results of the mid and long-term runoff in six stations are accurate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reactive Dye Adsorption from Aqueous Solution on HPEI-Modified Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} Nanoparticle as a Superadsorbent: Characterization, Modeling, and Optimization

In this work, the optimum condition for the adsorption of Reactive Blue 19 dye onto Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} functionalized with hyperbranched polyethylenimine (Fe@HPEI) was determined using response surface methodology. The properties of synthesized magnetic Fe@HPEI nanoparticles were ascertained using FTIR, SEM, TEM, VSM and zeta potential measurement. The experimental adsorption data indicating the positive effect of adsorbent dose and contact time, and the negative effect of pH, initial dye concentration and ionic strength on dye adsorption. At optimal condition; pH 3.4, contact time 25 min, adsorbent dose 0.4 g/L and initial dye concentration 113 mg/L, Fe@HPEI nanoparticles removed dye up to 99.27%. The maximum experimental dye adsorption was near to the predicted value of 100%, which confirmed the reliability of the selected statistical model. The dye adsorption data were fitted well to Langmuir isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic, and the maximum adsorption capacity was 500 mg/g. Totally, Fe@HPEI as an effective superadsorbent can be repeatedly utilized for the adsorption of dye from the aqueous environment.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of environmental microseismicity on detection and interpretation of small-magnitude events in a polar glacier setting

Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Pentavalent Curium, Berkelium, and Californium in Nitrate Complexes: Extending Actinide Chemistry and Oxidation States

Pentavalent actinyl nitrate complexes An V O 2 (NO 3 ) 2 - were produced by elimination of two NO 2 from An III (NO 3 ) 4 - for An = Pu, Am, Cm, Bk, and Cf. Density functional theory (B3LYP) and relativistic multireference (CASPT2) calculations confirmed the AnO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 - as AnVO 2 + actinyl moieties coordinated by nitrates. Computations of alternative An III O 2 (NO 3 ) 2 - and AnI V O 2 (NO 3 ) 2 - revealed significantly higher energies. Previous computations for bare AnO 2 + indicated AnVO 2 + for An = Pu, Am, Cf, and Bk, but Cm III O 2 + : electron donation from nitrate ligands has here stabilized the first Cm V complex, Cm V O 2 (NO 3 ) 2 - . Structural parameters and bonding analyses indicate increasing An-NO 3 bond covalency from Pu to Cf, in accordance with principles for actinide separations. Atomic ionization energies effectively predict relative stabilities of oxidation states; more reliable energies are needed for the actinides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic Energy Accuracy of Neural Network Potentials: Harnessing Pretraining and Transfer Learning

Machine learning-based interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have transformed the prediction of potential energy surfaces (PESs), achieving accuracy comparable to ab initio calculations. However, atomic energy predictions, often assumed to lack physical meaning, remain underexplored. In this study, we demonstrate that inaccuracies in atomic energy predictions reduce the robustness and transferability of Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) and atomic energy error can be masked in total energy predictions due to error cancellation. Here, we validate this finding using challenging configurations involving deformation and failure under tensile loading. By pretraining atomic energy predictions using empirical potentials and applying transfer learning with density functional theory (DFT) data, we achieve notable improvements in the accuracy of total energy, forces, and stress predictions. Furthermore, this approach enhances the robustness and transferability of NNPs, emphasizing the importance of atomic energy predictions in developing high-quality and reliable MLIPs.

Active Learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Constraints on extensions to Λ CDM with weak lensing and galaxy clustering

We constrain six possible extensions to the Λ cold dark matter (CDM) model using measurements from the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations, alone and in combination with external cosmological probes. The DES data are the two-point correlation functions of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering, and their cross-correlation. We use simulated data vectors and blind analyses of real data to validate the robustness of our results to astrophysical and modeling systematic errors. In many cases, constraining power is limited by the absence of theoretical predictions beyond the linear regime that are reliable at our required precision. The Λ CDM extensions are dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state, nonzero spatial curvature, additional relativistic degrees of freedom, sterile neutrinos with eV-scale mass, modifications of gravitational physics, and a binned σ 8 ( z ) model which serves as a phenomenological probe of structure growth. For the time-varying dark energy equation of state evaluated at the pivot redshift we find ( w p , w a ) = ( - 0.9 9 - 0.17 + 0.28 , - 0.9 ± 1.2 ) at 68% confidence with z p = 0.24 from the DES measurements alone, and ( w p , w a ) = ( - 1.0 3 - 0.03 + 0.04 , - 0. 4 - 0.3 + 0.4 ) with z p = 0.21 for the combination of all data considered. Curvature constraints of Ω k = 0.0009 ± 0.0017 and effective relativistic species N eff = 3.1 0 - 0.16 + 0.15 are dominated by external data, though adding DES information to external low-redshift probes tightens the Ω k constraints that can be made without cosmic microwave background observables by 20%. For massive sterile neutrinos, DES combined with external data improves the upper bound on the mass m eff by a factor of 3 compared to previous analyses, giving 95% limits of ( Δ N eff , m eff ) ≤ ( 0.28 , 0.20 eV ) when using priors matching a comparable Planck analysis. For modified gravity, we constrain changes to the lensing and Poisson equations controlled by functions Σ ( k , z ) = Σ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 and μ ( k , z ) = μ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 , respectively, to Σ 0 = 0. 6 - 0.5 + 0.4 from DES alone and ( Σ 0 , μ 0 ) = ( 0.04 ± 0.05 , 0.0 8 - 0.19 + 0.21 ) for the combination of all data, both at 68% confidence. Overall, we find no significant evidence for physics beyond Λ CDM .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the 2 ν β β Decay Rate and Spectral Shape of Mo 100 from the CUPID-Mo Experiment

Neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ) is a yet unobserved nuclear process that would demonstrate Lepton number violation, a clear evidence of beyond standard model physics. The process two neutrino double beta decay (2νββ) is allowed by the standard model and has been measured in numerous experiments. In this Letter, we report a measurement of 2νββ decay half-life of 100 Mo to the ground state of 100 Ru of [7.07±0.02(stat)±0.11(syst)]×10 18 yr by the CUPID-Mo experiment. With a relative precision of ±1.6% this is the most precise measurement to date of a 2νββ decay rate in 100 Mo. In addition, we constrain higher-order corrections to the spectral shape, which provides complementary nuclear structure information. We report a novel measurement of the shape factor ξ 3,1 =0.45±0.03(stat)±0.05(syst) based on a constraint on the ratio of higher-order terms from theory, which can be reliably calculated. This is compared to theoretical predictions for different nuclear models. Finally, we also extract the first value for the effective axial vector coupling constant obtained from a spectral shape study of 2νββ decay.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

First-principles engineering of charged defects for two-dimensional quantum technologies

Charged defects in two-dimensional (2D) materials have emerging applications in quantum technologies such as quantum emitters and quantum computation. The advancement of these technologies requires a rational design of ideal defect centers, demanding reliable computation methods for the quantitatively accurate prediction of defect properties. Here, we present an accurate, parameter-free, and efficient procedure to evaluate the quasiparticle defect states and thermodynamic charge transition levels of defects in 2D materials. Importantly, we solve critical issues that stem from the strongly anisotropic screening in 2D materials, that have so far precluded the accurate prediction of charge transition levels in these materials. Using this procedure, we investigate various defects in monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) for their charge transition levels, stable spin states, and optical excitations. We identify C B V N (nitrogen vacancy adjacent to carbon substitution of boron) to be the most promising defect candidate for scalable quantum bit and emitter applications.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Data-Driven Methodology for Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting

With increasing wind penetration, wind power ramps (WPRs) are currently drawing great attention to balancing authorities, since these wind ramps largely affect power system operations. To help better manage and dispatch the wind power, this paper develops a data-driven probabilistic WPR forecasting (p-WPRF) method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. A machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and produce the historical forecasting errors. To accurately model the distribution of wind power forecasting errors, a generalized Gaussian mixture model is developed and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) is also analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on the CDF is used to generate a large number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The p-WPRF is generated based on all generated scenarios under different weather and time conditions. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that the developed p-WPRF method can predict WPRs with a high level of reliability and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Copula-Based Conditional Probabilistic Forecast Model for Wind Power Ramps

Efficient management of wind ramping characteristics can significantly reduce wind integration costs for balancing authorities. By considering the stochastic dependence of wind power ramp (WPR) features, this paper develops a conditional probabilistic wind power ramp forecast (cp-WPRF) model based on Copula theory. The WPRs dataset is constructed by extracting ramps from a large dataset of historical wind power. Each WPR feature (e.g., rate, magnitude, duration, and start-time) is separately forecasted by considering the coupling effects among different ramp features. To accurately model the marginal distributions with a copula, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is adopted to characterize the WPR uncertainty and features. The Canonical Maximum Likelihood (CML) method is used to estimate parameters of the multivariable copula. The optimal copula model is chosen based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) from each copula family. Finally, the best conditions based cp-WPRF model is determined by predictive interval (PI) based evaluation metrics. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that the developed copula-based cp-WPRF model can predict WPRs with a high level of reliability and sharpness.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of the Extreme Cold Weather Event Affecting the Power System in Texas - February 2021 [Slides]

This presentation examines the extreme cold weather event that affected the power system in Texas in February 2021. The Texas load-shedding events were caused by a combination of record-high demand and cold weather issues that reduced the output from all types of generation. While some wind turbines were shutting down due to cold temperatures and icing and a lack of cold-weather packages, hourly wind output was accurately predicted. Extreme weather events historically drive grid reliability. Additional examination of more extreme events is needed to understand their impacts on the power system. As a national lab, NREL has the capabilities and facilities to help the industry address these types of challenges. NREL also has significant simulation and analysis capabilities (such as NAERM) that can help understand the impacts of extreme events. NREL also developed the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Research Platform, which enables evaluation of technologies that smooth grid operations during events like this.

17 WIND ENERGY↗