On the Aggregation and Extrapolation of Uncertainty from Component to System Level Models.
Abstract not provided.
Urbina, Angel↗
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Solubility of U(VI) in chloride solutions. III. The stable oxides/hydroxides in MgCl 2 systems: Pitzer activity model for the system UO 2 2+ –Na + –K + –Mg 2+ –H + –OH – –Cl – –H 2 O(l)
Here we have developed new chemical, thermodynamic and activity models for the system UO 2 2+ –Na + –K + –Mg 2+ –H + –OH – –Cl – –H 2 O(l) within the Pitzer approach. The new thermodynamic model is based on previously reported data treated within the SIT approach for NaCl and KCl systems, as well as on new experimental data determined in this work for the MgCl 2 system. The solubility of uranium(VI) was studied in 0.01–5.15 mol·kg w –1 MgCl 2 solutions at pH m = 4.1–9.7 (with pH m = –log [H + ]). Experiments were performed under Ar atmosphere at T = (22 ± 2) °C. In all investigated systems, the solubility of U(VI) is controlled by metaschoepite, UO 3 ·2H 2 O(cr). In contrast to previously investigated NaCl and KCl systems, no ternary Mg–U(VI)–OH(s) solid phases formed in alkaline MgCl 2 solutions within the timeframe of this study (≤ 200 days). A very significant increase in the solubility (up to 3 log 10 -units) is observed in acidic to near-neutral pH m conditions when increasing MgCl 2 concentration from 0.01 to 5.15 mol·kg w –1 , which reflects the strong ion interaction processes taking place in concentrated MgCl 2 brines. The solubility of UO 3 ·2H 2 O(cr) in the investigated NaCl, KCl and MgCl 2 solutions is well described with the solubility and hydrolysis constants recommended by Altmaier et al., (2017) and NEA–TDB, and a Pitzer activity model derived in the present work. The latter model considers experimental data reported in the present study and available in the literature for NaCl, KCl and MgCl 2 systems (solubility, potentiometric and spectroscopic data), in combination with well-stablished estimation methods and correlations with SIT coefficients. Finally, chemical, thermodynamic and Pitzer activity models provided in this work for the system UO 2 2+ –Na + –K + –Mg 2+ –H + –OH – –Cl – –H 2 O(l) accurately describe all evaluated datasets, and represent an adequate tool for the calculation of U(VI) solubility and aqueous speciation in a variety of geochemical conditions including concentrated brine systems of relevance in salt-based repositories for nuclear waste disposal.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
An application of similitude to model design of a soil-projectile system
Model design for simulation of space capsule landing on soils using similitude law
Awoshika, K.↗
NASA Glenn 1-by 1-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel User Manual
This manual describes the NASA Glenn Research Center's 1 - by 1 -Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel and provides information for customers who wish to conduct experiments in this facility. Tunnel performance envelopes of total pressure, total temperature, and dynamic pressure as a function of test section Mach number are presented. For each Mach number, maps are presented of Reynolds number per foot as a function of the total air temperature at the test section inlet for constant total air pressure at the inlet. General support systems-such as the service air, combustion air, altitude exhaust system, auxiliary bleed system, model hydraulic system, schlieren system, model pressure-sensitive paint, and laser sheet system are discussed. In addition, instrumentation and data processing, acquisition systems are described, pretest meeting formats and schedules are outlined, and customer responsibilities and personnel safety are addressed.
Seablom, Kirk D.↗
Systems Engineering and Application of System Performance Modeling in SIM Lite Mission
The SIM Lite Astrometric Observatory will be the first space-based Michelson interferometer operating in the visible wavelength, with the ability to perform ultra-high precision astrometric measurements on distant celestial objects. SIM Lite data will address in a fundamental way questions such as characterization of Earth-mass planets around nearby stars. To accomplish these goals it is necessary to rely on a model-based systems engineering approach - much more so than most other space missions. This paper will describe in further detail the components of this end-to-end performance model, called "SIM-sim", and show how it has helped the systems engineering process.
Exoplanet↗
Experimental test of model predictive control in a variable air volume system
Model predictive control (MPC) has been widely studied as a promising approach for improving energy efficiency and operational flexibility in buildings, yet its real-world performance for commercial variable air volume (VAV) systems remains insufficiently characterized. In particular, the impacts of model mismatch on control robustness, real-time computational burden, and device-level operation are rarely evaluated using long-term field data. Here, this study presents a comprehensive experimental evaluation of MPC applied to a full-scale VAV system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform-2 building with constant cooling/heating temperature setpoints and no occupancy. The study offers three key advantages over existing work: (1) it uses a representative building in a full-scale experimental test, capturing realistic system dynamics and complexity; (2) it evaluates a relatively sophisticated MPC formulation using two different optimization solvers (Gurobi and PSO), fully accounting for computational complexity and methodological diversity; and (3) it systematically assesses potential negative impacts on various building devices, benchmark against a well-established baseline, ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36). To isolate zone- and air-handling-unit–level supervisory control effects, the supply fan was operated with a fixed static pressure setpoint under all strategies, and the trim-and-response static pressure reset in G36 was not enabled. Results show that MPC maintained thermal comfort while improving energy efficiency. Abrupt solar radiation variations degraded performance. Computation times ranged from ∼1 s (Gurobi) to ∼ 70 s (PSO). Compared with G36, MPC achieves 33% energy savings and reduces median reheat coil output by approximately a factor of 5–10 for a representative cooling day under matched weather conditions. However, it increases the maximum discomfort deviation from 0.5 to 1°C and results in a 32% increase in staging frequency. In addition, PSO-based MPC introduced damper oscillations, also affecting actuator longevity.
ASHRAE guideline 36↗
DC-Connected Solar Plus Storage Modeling and Analysis for Behind-the-Meter Systems in the System Advisor Model
A detailed model for PV plus DC-connected batteries was developed. This model was compared to an existing ACconnected battery model in the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool using a hypothetical Honolulu residence with a PV plus storage system. The stand-alone PV system was shown to provide the most value; however due to the increased difficulty of PV systems being approved for grid interconnection in Hawaii, it is valuable to install an AC or DC connected battery to enable full PV self-consumption under a less restrictive interconnection option. In that case both battery systems enabled full PV selfconsumption at the residence, requiring no power to be exported to the grid. The DC-connected battery system captured energy from the PV array which would have also been clipped due to inverter limitations. For a PV system with DC/AC ratio of 1.23, the battery configurations produced net-present values within 1% of each other, but when the DC/AC ratio increased to 1.85, the DC-connected system increased the net-present value by 13%.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DC-connected Solar Plus Storage Modeling and Analysis for Behind-The-Meter Systems in the System Advisor Model: Preprint
A detailed model for PV plus DC-connected batteries was developed. This model was compared to an existing AC connected battery model in the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool using a hypothetical Honolulu residence with a PV plus storage system. The stand-alone PV system was shown to provide the most value; however due to the increased difficulty of PV systems being approved for grid interconnection in Hawaii, it is valuable to install an AC or DC connected battery to enable full PV self-consumption under a less restrictive interconnection option. In that case both battery systems enabled full PV self consumption at the residence, requiring no power to be exported to the grid. The DC-connected battery system captured energy from the PV array which would have also been clipped due to inverter limitations. For a PV system with DC/AC ratio of 1.23, the battery configurations produced net-present values within 1% of each other, but when the DC/AC ratio increased to 1.85, the DC-connected system increased the net-present value by 13%.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
System Advisor Model (SAM) [Slides]
The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software that enables detailed performance and financial analysis for energy systems. • Conducts technoeconomic analysis of energy technologies to facilitate planning and decision making.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Rule-based simulation models
Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.
Nieten, Joseph L.↗
Multiscale Methods for Accurate, Efficient, and Scale-Aware Models of the Earth System
The major goal of this project was to contribute improvements to the infrastructure of an Earth System Model in order to support research in the Multiscale Methods for Accurate, Efficient, and Scale-Aware models of the Earth System project. In support of this, the NCAR team accomplished two main tasks: improving input/output performance of the model and improving atmospheric model simulation quality. Improvement of the performance and scalability of data input and diagnostic output within the model required a new infrastructure which can efficiently handle the unstructured grids common in multiscale simulations. This allows for a more computationally efficient model, enabling more years of Earth System simulation. The quality of the model simulations was improved by reducing grid-point noise in the spectral element version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-SE). This was achieved by running the physics of the model using grid-cell data on a finite-volume grid.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Compiler-assisted Source-to-Source Skeletonization of Application Models for System Simulation.
Abstract not provided.
Wilke, Jeremiah J↗
NCAR Contribution to A U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) ISI Prediction System
NCAR brought the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (version 1, CESM1) into the mix of models in the NMME effort. This new version uses our newest atmospheric model CAM5 and produces a coupled climate and ENSO that are generally as good or better than those of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Compared to CCSM4, the new coupled model has a superior climate response with respect to low clouds in both the subtropical stratus regimes and the Arctic. However, CESM1 has been run to date using a prognostic aerosol model that more than doubles its computational cost. We are currently evaluating a version of the new model using prescribed aerosols and expect it will be ready for integrations in summer 2012. Because of this NCAR has not been able to complete the hindcast integrations using the NCAR loosely-coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation method nor has it contributed to the current (Stage I) NMME operational utilization. The expectation is that this model will be included in the NMME in late 2012 or early 2013. The initialization method will utilize the Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation methods developed at NCAR using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) in conjunction with Jeff Anderson’s team in CISL. This methodology has been used in our decadal prediction contributions to CMIP5. During the course of this project, NCAR has setup and performed all the needed hindcast and forecast simulations and provide the requested fields to our collaborators. In addition, NCAR researchers have participated fully in research themes (i) and (ii). Specifically, i) we have begun to evaluate and optimize our system in hindcast mode, focusing on the optimal number of ensemble members, methodologies to recalibrate individual dynamical models, and accessing our forecasts across multiple time scales, i.e., beyond two weeks, and ii) we have begun investigation of the role of different ocean initial conditions in seasonal forecasts. The completion of the calibration hindcasts for Seasonal to Interannual (SI) predictions and the maintenance of the data archive associated with the NCAR portion of this effort has been the responsibility of the Project Scientist I (Alicia Karspeck) that was partially supported on this project.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity
A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.
AeroPropulsoServoElasticity↗
Developing a Model-based Capability to Analyze Requirements for the Climate Observing System
Models are foundational for estimating states of the earth's climate system, both as tools to extrapolate information in time and space, and as observation 'operators' used to relate what is analyzed and predicted to what is observed. Expanding the simulation approach further, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are designed to mimic the complete process of analyzing the climate state by replacing real observations with entirely simulated ones determined from a model-based depiction of nature. OSSEs provide a framework to 'fly' simulated satellite instruments through a synthetic atmosphere and investigate the trade-spaces of measurements for various satellite configurations and sampling strategies, and assess their measurement impact on modeling and forecasting capabilities. Such a tool is a crucial but as yet unfulfilled need for future mission selection and design. The components of a state-of-the-art OSSE system are being assembled at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Code 610.1) at NASA/GSFC, leveraging on the GMAO's existing modeling and data assimilation infrastructure for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The OSSE framework is based on the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model, version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) observational analysis scheme, combined with the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model developed by the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch (Code 613.3). This system is an evolving, key component of Goddard's planned development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) capability, which will bring together into a single, fully interactive system Goddard's modeling and assimilation efforts in atmosphere, ocean and chemistry and aerosols to provide a comprehensive analysis and prediction system for weather and climate In addition to providing a state-of-the-art capability for assimilating current observation types, GEOS-5, and the future IESA, provide the capability to identify the need for, and assess the potential impact of, future observing systems under consideration for improving weather and climate prediction.
Gelaro, Ronald↗
Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity
A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the lowboom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.
propulsion system modeling↗
A System Dynamics Model of Early-Stage Transition Dynamics in the Bioproducts Industry
The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the techno-economic attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and end use factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) demand. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Verdant Power TriFrame, Gen5 KHPS Turbine, and BOP System Content Models
This submission includes System Content Models with data following manufacture for the Verdant Power TriFrame, Gen5 Kinetic Hydropower System (KHPS) Turbines, and Balance of Plant (BOP). The TriFrame installs 3 Gen5 KHPS Turbines. The BOP system controls the turbines and interconnects the TriFrame to shoreline with supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA).
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗