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DOE OSTI2023

The microphysics of the warm-rain and ice crystal processes of precipitation in simulated continental convective storms

Precipitation in clouds can form by either warm-rain or ice crystal processes, referred to as warm and cold formation pathways, respectively. Here, we investigate the warm and cold pathway contributions to surface precipitation in simulated continental convective storms. We analyze three contrasting convective storms that are cold-based, slightly warm-based and very warm-based. We apply tracer-tagging techniques in our aerosol-cloud model to determine simulated microphysical pathways that lead to precipitation. We find cold components of graupel and rain mass were higher than warm components in cold- and slightly warm-based clouds. By contrast, in very warm-based clouds nearly 80% of surface precipitation was formed via warm-rain processes. Lowering of cloud base altitude to levels about 10–20 K warmer switched surface precipitation to being mostly warm, due to enhanced moisture content in the planetary boundary layer and larger cloud droplets aloft intensifying raindrop freezing. Our simulations indicate that warm and cold processes co-exist in any storm and the balance between them is determined by cloud base temperature and solute aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

FY 2016 Status Report on the Modeling of the M8 Calibration Series using MAMMOTH

This report provides a summary of the progress made towards validating the multi-physics reactor analysis application MAMMOTH using data from measurements performed at the Transient Reactor Test facility, TREAT. The work completed consists of a series of comparisons of TREAT element types (standard and control rod assemblies) in small geometries as well as slotted mini-cores to reference Monte Carlo simulations to ascertain the accuracy of cross section preparation techniques. After the successful completion of these smaller problems, a full core model of the half slotted core used in the M8 Calibration series was assembled. Full core MAMMOTH simulations were compared to Serpent reference calculations to assess the cross section preparation process for this larger configuration. As part of the validation process the M8 Calibration series included a steady state wire irradiation experiment and coupling factors for the experiment region. The shape of the power distribution obtained from the MAMMOTH simulation shows excellent agreement with the experiment. Larger differences were encountered in the calculation of the coupling factors, but there is also great uncertainty on how the experimental values were obtained. Future work will focus on resolving some of these differences.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques: Preprint

This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques

This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Simulation Aided Metallic Fuel Design

Nuclear engineering is reaching a domain space in which computational power and methods are starting to surpass the models that are used to simulate nuclear fuel rods. As these models are updated, simulations utilizing different compositions, operating conditions, fabrication techniques, and geometries can provide core designers with an important first step towards fuel qualification. Due to the cost associated with fuel irradiations, it can be expected that time and money spent building better fuel models may provide an attractive return during initial studies of advanced fuels, especially with regards to fuels beyond the extensively studied uranium oxide system. In general, the primary U.S. experience with irradiated fuel rods beyond traditional oxide fuel is with binary (U-Zr) and ternary (U-Pu-Zr) metal fuels. The bulk of the experimental data for metal fuels is obtained from rods irradiated in the EBR-II sodium fast reactor (SFR), thus many of the correlations developed for metal fuels comes from the post-irradiation (PIE) examination of EBR-II rods. One of the unique characteristics that set U-Pu-Zr fuels apart from traditional oxide fuels is the presence of different phases that develop in the fuel during irradiation. Each of these different phases has unique thermal, mechanical, and diffusive behavior. The transitions between these phases are not static as the initially homogenous zirconium diffuses towards the center and edge of the fuel rod, resulting in a low-Zr, high-U ring. Along with the differing material properties that occur in each phase, the increase in uranium corresponds to an increase in localized fission and power production. The direct coupling between the thermal and diffusion solves highlights one of the many examples of tightly coupled phenomenon that are present in nuclear fuel, and motivation for the development of codes that simultaneously solve each piece of physics in a fully-coupled manner.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can artificial intelligence and data-driven machine learning models match or even replace process-driven hydrologic models for streamflow simulation?: A case study of four watersheds with different hydro-climatic regions across the CONUS

With recent developments in computational techniques, Data-driven Machine Learning Models (DMLs) have shown great potential in simulating streamflow and capturing the rainfall-runoff relationship in given watersheds, which are traditionally fulfilled by Process-based Hydrologic Models (PHMs). There are debates on whether the DMLs can outperform and possibly replace the classical PHMs for streamflow simulation and river forecasting, but no clear conclusions have been made. This study aims to investigate whether the newer DMLs have any potential in further improving the simulation accuracy of classical PHMs, and vice versa. To do this, we compared a few popular PHMs and DMLs over four watersheds across the Continental US (CONUS) that are associated with different input, climate, and regional conditions. A total of five hydrologic models were chosen, including (1) two classical lumped models, i.e., the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and Xinanjiang (XAJ); (2) one modern distributed model, termed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST); (3) and two DMLs including an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and a deep learning model, termed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). Our results demonstrated that the DMLs still significantly biased when using the baseline input scenario with the PHMs. However, the DMLs fed with delayed input scenarios had great potential and can reach high simulation accuracy. The DMLs, especially the ANN, outperformed other employed models under the rainfall-runoff relationship in which rainfall dominantly drives. Furthermore, the DMLs also showed better performance in the high-flow regime, while the PHMs had a better performance for the low-flow regime, implying both PHMs and DMLs have their own merits and are worthy of joint development. In general, our study indicated a great potential of using DMLs to simulate streamflow, but further studies are still needed to verify the transferability and scalability of DMLs in large-scale experiments, such as the Distributed Model Intercomparison Projects 1&2 conducted by National Weather Services but to compare modern DMLs and PHMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Detailed analysis of the effects of stencil spatial variations with arbitrary high-order finite-difference Maxwell solver

Due to discretization effects and truncation to finite domains, many electromagnetic simulations present non-physical modifications of Maxwell's equations in space that may generate spurious signals affecting the overall accuracy of the result. Such modifications for instance occur when Perfectly Matched Layers (PMLs) are used at simulation domain boundaries to simulate open media. Another example is the use of arbitrary order Maxwell solver with domain decomposition technique that may under some condition involve stencil truncations at subdomain boundaries, resulting in small spurious errors that do eventually build up. In each case, a careful evaluation of the characteristics and magnitude of the errors resulting from these approximations, and their impact at any frequency and angle, requires detailed analytical and numerical studies. To this end, we present a general analytical approach that enables the evaluation of numerical discretization errors of fully three-dimensional arbitrary order finite-difference Maxwell solver, with arbitrary modification of the local stencil in the simulation domain. The analytical model is validated against simulations of domain decomposition technique and PMLs, when these are used with very high-order Maxwell solver, as well as in the infinite order limit of pseudo-spectral solvers. Results confirm that the new analytical approach enables exact predictions in each case. It also confirms that the domain decomposition technique can be used with very high-order Maxwell solver and a reasonably low number of guard cells with negligible effects on the whole accuracy of the simulation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic control of the spatial frequency content of an intense laser via intra-beam energy transfer

We present theory and simulations demonstrating that bandwidth-inducing optical smoothing techniques such as smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD) can initiate intra-beam energy transfer (IBET) within a single beam. IBET consists of energy transfer between the different frequency components of the beam and results in a simultaneous and correlated redistribution of the temporal and spatial frequencies of the laser's electric field. We identify a threshold in bandwidth for IBET to occur and validate the theory with simulations. The bandwidth and the color cycling of SSD can result in IBET in conditions relevant for high-energy density experiments at the National Ignition Facility and Omega Laser. We show that IBET could be used to manipulate a laser's spatial frequency content within a plasma. In particular, this technique could be used to increase a laser's effective f-number, with potential applications for self-guiding in plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

X-ray and Optical Circular Dichroism as Local and Global Ultrafast Chiral Probes of [12]Helicene Racemization

Optical circular dichroism (OCD) is a well-established technique for probing molecular chirality typically in the UV-visible window. Although molecular chirality is usually related to a chiral center, it can alternatively describe a global structure. The electronic transitions are then delocalized and OCD is said to probe the global chirality. Recent advances controlling the polarization and spatial structure of X-ray beams have led to novel spectroscopic techniques such as X-ray circular dichroism (XCD), which can exploit the localized nature of the X-ray electronic transitions. XCD is thus sensitive to local structures and the relevant chirality probed with it can be referred as local. Here, we use the racemization mechanism of the [12]Helicene as a model to assess the capabilities of OCD and XCD as probes of global and local chiralities. In conclusion, our simulations suggest that XCD is a reliable spectroscopic technique for probing the local chirality of molecules, suggesting the further development of this experimental technique.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Insights from Synthetic Star-forming Regions. I. Reliable Mock Observations from SPH Simulations

Through synthetic observations of a hydrodynamical simulation of an evolving star-forming region, we assess how the choice of observational techniques affects the measurements of properties that trace star formation. Testing and calibrating observational measurements requires synthetic observations that are as realistic as possible. In this part of the series (Paper I), we explore different techniques for mapping the distributions of densities and temperatures from the particle-based simulations onto a Voronoi mesh suitable for radiative transfer and consequently explore their accuracy. We further test different ways to set up the radiative transfer in order to produce realistic synthetic observations. We give a detailed description of all methods and ultimately recommend techniques. We have found that the flux around 20 μ m is strongly overestimated when blindly coupling the dust radiative transfer temperature with the hydrodynamical gas temperature. We find that when instead assuming a constant background dust temperature in addition to the radiative transfer heating, the recovered flux is consistent with actual observations. We present around 5800 realistic synthetic observations for Spitzer and Herschel bands, at different evolutionary time-steps, distances, and orientations. In the upcoming papers of this series (Papers II, III, and IV), we will test and calibrate measurements of the star formation rate, gas mass, and the star formation efficiency using our realistic synthetic observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic load balancing with enhanced shared-memory parallelism for particle-in-cell codes

Furthering our understanding of many of today’s interesting problems in plasma physics – including plasma based acceleration and magnetic reconnection with pair production due to quantum electrodynamic effects – requires large-scale kinetic simulations using particle-in-cell (PIC) codes. However, these simulations are extremely demanding, requiring that contemporary PIC codes be designed to efficiently use a new fleet of exascale computing architectures. To this end, the key issue of parallel load balance across computational nodes must be addressed. We discuss the implementation of dynamic load balancing by dividing the simulation space into many small, self-contained regions or ‘‘tiles,’’ along with shared-memory (e.g., OpenMP) parallelism both over many tiles and within single tiles. The load balancing algorithm can be used with three different topologies, including two space-filling curves. Here, we tested this implementation in the code Osiris and show low overhead and improved scalability with OpenMP thread number on simulations with both uniform load and severe load imbalance. Compared to other load-balancing techniques, our algorithm gives order-of-magnitude improvement in parallel scalability for simulations with severe load imbalance issues.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian process based surrogate approach for the optimization of cylindrical targets

Simulating direct-drive inertial confinement experiments presents significant computational challenges, both due to the complexity of the codes required for such simulations and the substantial computational expense associated with target design studies. Machine learning models, and in particular, surrogate models, offer a solution by replacing simulation results with a simplified approximation. In this study, we apply surrogate modeling and optimization techniques that are well established in the existing literature to one-dimensional simulation data of a new cylindrical target design containing deuterium–tritium fuel. These models predict yields without the need for expensive simulations. We find that Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process surrogates enhances sampling efficiency in low-dimensional design spaces but becomes less efficient as dimensionality increases. Nonetheless, optimization routines within two-dimensional and five-dimensional design spaces can identify designs that maximize yield, while also aligning with established physical intuition. Optimization routines, which ignore constraints on hydrodynamic instability growth, are shown to lead to unstable designs in 2D, resulting in yield loss. However, routines that utilize 1D simulations and impose constraints on the in-flight aspect ratio converge on novel cylindrical target designs that are stable against hydrodynamic instability growth in 2D and achieve high yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

High mass and halo resolution from fast low resolution simulations

Generating mocks for future sky surveys requires large volumes and high resolutions, which is computationally expensive even for fast simulations. Here we try to develop numerical schemes to calibrate various halo and matter statistics in fast low resolution simulations compared to high resolution N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. For the halos, we improve the initial condition resolution and develop a halo finder "relaxed-FoF", where we allow different linking lengths for different halo mass and velocity dispersions. We show that our relaxed-FoF halo finder improves the common statistics, such as halo bias, halo mass function, halo auto power spectrum, cross correlation coefficient with the reference halo catalog, and halo-matter cross power spectrum. We also calibrate small-scale velocities of small halos to improve the power spectrum in redshift space. For the matter statistics, we incorporate the potential gradient descent (PGD) method into fast simulations to improve the matter distribution at nonlinear scales. By building a lightcone output, we show that the PGD method significantly improves the weak lensing convergence tomographic power spectrum. With these improvements FastPM is comparable to the high resolution full N-body simulation of the same mass resolution, with two orders of magnitude fewer time steps. These techniques can be used to improve the halo and matter statistics of FastPM simulations for mock catalogs of future surveys such as DESI and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Determining Series Resistance for Equivalent Circuit Models of a PV Module

Literature describes various methods for determining a series resistance for a photovoltaic device from measured IV curves. We investigate use of these techniques to estimate the series resistance parameter for a single diode equivalent circuit model. With simulated IV curves we demonstrate that the series resistance values obtained by these techniques differ systematically from the known series resistance parameter values used to generate the curves, indicating that these methods are not suitable for determining the series resistance parameter for the single diode model equation. Furthermore, we present an alternative method to determine the series resistance parameter jointly with the other parameters for the single diode model equation, and demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of this technique in the presence of measurement errors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Machine Learning Approaches to Estimate Aerosol Mixing State Metrics in Atmospheric Models

Aerosol mixing state describes how aerosol compositions are distributed among atmospheric aerosol particles in a population. Oversimplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric modeling can introduce errors in estimations of weather and climate-relevant aerosol microphysical properties. A more comprehensive representation of the aerosol mixing state can be achieved in principle with a Particle-resolved Monte Carlo (PartMC) model but at added computational cost that may be prohibitive for direct invocation in operational numerical weather prediction or multi-year climate simulations. The aim of our research is to explore the machine learning (ML) methodologies for estimating aerosol mixing state metrics, which we define here in three different ways: with respect to (a) hygroscopicity; (b) optical properties; and (c) chemical species abundance. We adopted a data-driven approach, leveraging deep learning and statistical learning techniques, to take advantage of massive PartMC model simulations. First, we performed particle-resolved simulations by PartMC to create a series of scenarios considering a range of global environmental conditions. Each scenario consists of aerosol populations and corresponding mixing state metrics. The gas concentration, aerosol mass concentration, environmental variables and mixing state metrics of each population constitute the datasets for machine learning implementations. We have adopted and evaluated various configurations of machine learning methodologies in this investigation, embracing deep learning, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, and the ensemble approaches. After a rigorous model selection process, we identified an appropriate model to derive estimates of aerosol mixing state metrics. We used the computational and data resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) and the ORNL Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES). The NVIDIA DGX-1 hardware was used for the prototyping of the ML models. Our approach has allowed us to gain a new understanding of how machine learning methodologies can be applied to improve the representation of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models and benefit the atmospheric research community. Next, we plan to extend our research and methodology to quantify some of the aerosol-related uncertainties in the E3SM Atmospheric Model (EAM) Version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗