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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Stochastic Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis–Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button–sized disk–shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300oC to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

residual tensile stress↗
DOE OSTI2016

PROGENITOR-DEPENDENT EXPLOSION DYNAMICS IN SELF-CONSISTENT, AXISYMMETRIC SIMULATIONS OF NEUTRINO-DRIVEN CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE

We present self-consistent, axisymmetric core-collapse supernova simulations performed with the Prometheus-Vertex code for 18 pre-supernova models in the range of 11–28 M {sub ⊙}, including progenitors recently investigated by other groups. All models develop explosions, but depending on the progenitor structure, they can be divided into two classes. With a steep density decline at the Si/Si–O interface, the arrival of this interface at the shock front leads to a sudden drop of the mass-accretion rate, triggering a rapid approach to explosion. With a more gradually decreasing accretion rate, it takes longer for the neutrino heating to overcome the accretion ram pressure and explosions set in later. Early explosions are facilitated by high mass-accretion rates after bounce and correspondingly high neutrino luminosities combined with a pronounced drop of the accretion rate and ram pressure at the Si/Si–O interface. Because of rapidly shrinking neutron star radii and receding shock fronts after the passage through their maxima, our models exhibit short advection timescales, which favor the efficient growth of the standing accretion-shock instability. The latter plays a supportive role at least for the initiation of the re-expansion of the stalled shock before runaway. Taking into account the effects of turbulent pressure in the gain layer, we derive a generalized condition for the critical neutrino luminosity that captures the explosion behavior of all models very well. We validate the robustness of our findings by testing the influence of stochasticity, numerical resolution, and approximations in some aspects of the microphysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stellar granulation as the source of high-frequency flicker in Kepler light curves

A large fraction of cool, low-mass stars exhibit brightness fluctuations that arise from a combination of convective granulation, acoustic oscillations, magnetic activity, and stellar rotation. Much of the short-timescale variability takes the form of stochastic noise, whose presence may limit the progress of extrasolar planet detection and characterization. In order to lay the groundwork for extracting useful information from these quasi-random signals, we focus on the origin of the granulation-driven component of the variability. We apply existing theoretical scaling relations to predict the star-integrated variability amplitudes for 508 stars with photometric light curves measured by the Kepler mission. We also derive an empirical correction factor that aims to account for the suppression of convection in F-dwarf stars with magnetic activity and shallow convection zones. So that we can make predictions of specific observational quantities, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of granulation light curves using a Lorentzian power spectrum. These simulations allowed us to reproduce the so-called flicker floor (i.e., a lower bound in the relationship between the full light-curve range and power in short-timescale fluctuations) that was found in the Kepler data. The Monte Carlo model also enabled us to convert the modeled fluctuation variance into a flicker amplitude directly comparable with observations. When the magnetic suppression factor described above is applied, the model reproduces the observed correlation between stellar surface gravity and flicker amplitude. Observationally validated models like these provide new and complementary evidence for a possible impact of magnetic activity on the properties of near-surface convection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic scheduling for commercial building cooling systems: considering uncertainty in zone temperature prediction

Here, this paper presents the first attempt to address the uncertainty in zone temperature prediction with stochastic optimization. The uncertain zone temperature is a process uncertainty and has not been considered in the existing stochastic optimization for building control. To fill this gap, we proposed a novel formulation of stochastic optimization to handle process uncertainty in building control. Specifically, we first examined the accuracy of a typical linear model for predicting zone temperature. We then formulated the scheduling of the building cooling system as a stochastic optimization problem over a 24-hour look-ahead period to minimize the electricity cost of the studied building cooling system. After that, we applied the proposed stochastic load scheduling (SLS) to a direct expansion (DX) cooling system that serves a medium office building. Through simulation with a detailed building energy simulation software, EnergyPlus, we evaluated the operational cost and the thermal comfort compared with a deterministic load scheduling. The operation cost of scheduling was found to vary with the level of zone temperature prediction uncertainty. The proposed SLS can mitigate the impacts of uncertain zone temperature predictions on both operational cost and thermal comfort. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed SLS works better when the uncertainty level is more significant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Capture zone area distributions for nucleation and growth of islands during submonolayer deposition

A fundamental evolution equation is developed to describe the distribution of areas of capture zones (CZs) associated with islands formed by homogeneous nucleation and growth during submonolayer deposition on perfect flat surfaces. This equation involves various quantities which characterize subtle spatial aspects of the nucleation process. These quantities in turn depend on the complex stochastic geometry of the CZ tessellation of the surface, and their detailed form determines the CZ area distribution (CZD) including its asymptotic features. For small CZ areas, behavior of the CZD reflects the critical island size, i. For large CZ areas, it may reflect the probability for nucleation near such large CZs. Predictions are compared with kinetic Monte Carlo simulation data for models with two-dimensional compact islands with i = 1 (irreversible island formation by diffusing adatom pairs) and i = 0 (adatoms spontaneously convert to stable nuclei, e.g., by exchange with the substrate).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multivariate space - time analysis of PRE-STORM precipitation

This paper presents the methodologies and results of the multivariate modeling and two-dimensional spectral and correlation analysis of PRE-STORM rainfall gauge data. Estimated parameters of the models for the specific spatial averages clearly indicate the eastward and southeastward wave propagation of rainfall fluctuations. A relationship between the coefficients of the diffusion equation and the parameters of the stochastic model of rainfall fluctuations is derived that leads directly to the exclusive use of rainfall data to estimate advection speed (about 12 m/s) as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding fields. The statistical methodology developed here can be used for confirmation of physical models by comparison of the corresponding second-moment statistics of the observed and simulated data, for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problem of the hydrodynamic equations, and for application in some other areas of meteorological and climatological data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Resonance and First Arrival Time for Excitable Systems

We study the noise induced thermally activated barrier crossing of Brownian particles that hop in a piecewise linear potential. Using the exact analytic solutions and via numerical simulations not only we explore the dependence for the first passage time of a single particle but also we calculate the first arrival time for one particle out of N particles. The first arrival time decreases as the number of particles increases as expected. We then explore the thermally activated barrier crossing rate of the system in the presence of time varying signal. The dependence of signal to noise ratio SNR as well as the power amplification (η) on model parameters is explored. η and SNR depict a pronounced peak at particular noise strength. In the presence of N particles, η is considerably amplified as N steps up showing the weak periodic signal plays a vital role in controlling the noise induced dynamics of the system. Moreover, for the sake of generality, the viscous friction γ is considered to decrease exponentially when the temperature T of the medium increases (γ=Be{sup −AT}) as proposed originally by Reynolds (Philos Trans R Soc Lond 177:157, 1886).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic modelling of intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer: Correlations, distributions, level crossings, and moment estimation

A stochastic model is presented for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas. The fluctuations in the plasma density are modeled by a super-position of uncorrelated pulses with fixed shape and duration, describing radial motion of blob-like structures. In the case of an exponential pulse shape and exponentially distributed pulse amplitudes, predictions are given for the lowest order moments, probability density function, auto-correlation function, level crossings, and average times for periods spent above and below a given threshold level. Also, the mean squared errors on estimators of sample mean and variance for realizations of the process by finite time series are obtained. These results are discussed in the context of single-point measurements of fluctuations in the scrape-off layer, broad density profiles, and implications for plasma–wall interactions due to the transient transport events in fusion grade plasmas. The results may also have wide applications for modelling fluctuations in other magnetized plasmas such as basic laboratory experiments and ionospheric irregularities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scaling Relations for Intercalation Induced Damage in Electrodes

Mechanical degradation, owing to intercalation induced stress and microcrack formation, is a key contributor to the electrode performance decay in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The stress generation and formation of microcracks are caused by the solid state diffusion of lithium in the active particles. Here in this work, scaling relations are constructed for diffusion induced damage in intercalation electrodes based on an extensive set of numerical experiments with a particle-level description of microcrack formation under disparate operating and cycling conditions, such as temperature, particle size, C-rate, and drive cycle. The microcrack formation and evolution in active particles is simulated based on a stochastic methodology. A reduced order scaling law is constructed based on an extensive set of data from the numerical experiments. The scaling relations include combinatorial constructs of concentration gradient, cumulative strain energy, and microcrack formation. Lastly, the reduced order relations are further employed to study the influence of mechanical degradation on cell performance and validated against the high order model for the case of damage evolution during variable current vehicle drive cycle profiles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Temporal coarse-graining method to simulate the movement of atoms

We propose a novel method to simulate the movement of atoms at finite temperature. The main idea of our method is to derive “renormalized,” or coarse-grained in time, dynamics from the Euler–Maruyama scheme, which is the standard method for solving the stochastic differential equations numerically. Based on this renormalization, we propose a new algorithm for solving overdamped Langevin equations. We test our renormalization scheme on two models and demonstrate that the results obtained by this method are consistent with those obtained by the standard method. Our algorithm performs better than the standard scheme, especially at low temperatures and with multiple processors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Fokker–Planck approach to a moment closure for mixing in variable-density turbulence

We develop a theory for the cascade mixing terms in a moment closure approach to binary active scalar mixing in variable-density turbulence. To address the variable-density complications we apply, as a principle and constraint, the conservation of the probability density function (PDF) through a Fokker–Planck equation with bounded sample space whose attractor is the beta PDF with skewness. Mixing is related to a single-point PDF as a realisability principle to provide mathematically rigorous expressions for the small scale statistics in terms of largescale moments. The problem of the unknown small-scale mixing is replaced with the determination of the drift and diffusion terms of a Fokker–Planck equation in a beta-PDF-convergent stochastic process. We find that realisability of a beta-convergent process requires the mixing time-scale ratio, taken as a constant in passive scalar mixing, to be a function of the mean mass fraction, mean fluid density, the Atwood number, the density-volume correlation and moments of the density field. We develop and compare the new model with direct numerical simulations data of non-stationary homogeneous variable-density turbulence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable/Secure Cooperative Algorithms and Framework for Extremely-high Penetration Solar Integration (SolarExPert) (Final Technical Report)

This SolarExPert project has developed a Sustainable Grid Platform (SGP) with scalable architecture of distributed control and optimization. The SGP consists of the following major functions: 1) an advanced grid architecture with hierarchical and distributed communication and control, combined with the OpenFMB standard and implemented on the Multi-Agent OpenDSS (MA-OpenDSS) platform; 2) an online distributed stochastic optimal power flow; 3) an online distributed system state estimation algorithm; 4) the distributed Volt/VAR optimization and frequency control algorithms; 5) the distributed distribution system restoration strategy. The developed SGP together with advanced functions are tested in 1 million (1M)-node distribution system on the MA-OpenDSS platform. Furthermore, the models and algorithms are tested in 100,000-node system HiL simulation, and also in P-HiL implementation with 100 physical devices. The developed functions haven been validated and tested on the selected actual distribution feeder with the data collected from the field of Maui Meadows in Hawaii. The distributed PV hosting capacities with cooperative Volt/VAR and Volt/VAR/Watt control are estimated and compared to provide recommendations for customers and the utility company.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mechanical model of an earthquake fault

The dynamic behavior of a simple mechanical model of an earthquake fault is studied. This model, introduced originally by Burridge and Knopoff (1967), consists of an elastically coupled chain of masses in contact with a moving rough surface. The present version of the model retains the full Newtonian dynamics with inertial effects and contains no externally imposed stochasticity or spatial inhomogeneity. The only nonlinear feature is a velocity-weakening stick-slip friction force between the masses and the moving surface. This system is being driven persistently toward a slipping instability and therefore exhibits noisy sequences of earthquakelike events. These events are observed in numerical simulations, and many of their features can be predicted analytically.

Carlson, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Robust Fault Detection and Isolation for Stochastic Systems

This paper outlines the formulation of a robust fault detection and isolation scheme that can precisely detect and isolate simultaneous actuator and sensor faults for uncertain linear stochastic systems. The given robust fault detection scheme based on the discontinuous robust observer approach would be able to distinguish between model uncertainties and actuator failures and therefore eliminate the problem of false alarms. Since the proposed approach involves precise reconstruction of sensor faults, it can also be used for sensor fault identification and the reconstruction of true outputs from faulty sensor outputs. Simulation results presented here validate the effectiveness of the robust fault detection and isolation system.

George, Jemin↗
DOE OSTI2014

Two critical issues in Langevin simulation of gas flows

A stochastic algorithm based on the Langevin equation has been recently proposed to simulate rarefied gas flows. Compared with the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, the Langevin method is more efficient in simulating small Knudsen number flows. While it is well-known that the cell sizes and time steps should be smaller than the mean free path and the mean collision time, respectively, in DSMC simulations, the Langevin equation uses a drift term and a diffusion term to describe molecule movements, so no direct molecular collisions have to be modeled. This enables the Langevin simulation to proceed with a much larger time step than that in the DSMC method. Two critical issues in Langevin simulation are addressed in this paper. The first issue is how to reproduce the transport properties as that described by kinetic theory. Transport coefficients predicted by Langevin equation are obtained by using Green-Kubo formulae. The second issue is numerical scheme with boundary conditions. We present two schemes corresponding to small time step and large time step, respectively. For small time step, the scheme is similar to DSMC method as the update of positions and velocities are uncoupled; for large time step, we present an analytical solution of the hitting time, which is the crucial factor for accurate simulation. Velocity-Couette flow, thermal-Couette flow, Rayleigh-Bénard flow and wall-confined problem are simulated by using these two schemes. Our study shows that Langevin simulation is a promising tool to investigate small Knudsen number flows.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

The NANOGrav nine-year data set: Limits on the isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr{sup −1}) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A{sub gw}<1.5×10{sup −15}. We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, Ω{sub gw}(f)h{sup 2}<4.2 × 10{sup −10}. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Ω{sub gw}(f)h{sup 2}<2.2 × 10{sup −10}, translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with Gμ<3.3×10{sup −8}, a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗