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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Development of neural network force fields for corrosion studies

To fully understand the chemistry and physics of corrosion, novel methods of simulation must be developed. One approach is designing machine learning (ML) algorithms integrated with density functional theory to develop adaptive force fields to gain insight into corrosion behavior namely at the surface of metal oxides. Current methods of modeling corrosion are slow due to the computational cost of resolving both reaction mechanics and mass transport processes. Machine learning methods can be implemented to obtain structure-activity relationships at both the molecular and bulk scale while still retaining the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) and significantly decreasing the time needed for simulations of complex chemical processes in the various environments of corrosion. Multiscale models are needed for corrosion studies to fully understand its processes not only at the atomic length scale (chemical bonding, energies, and forces), but also at the nano and meso length scales (solid-state physics and material science processes). Current methods of study include DFT, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo. The limitation of DFT is that only a small number of atoms or molecules can be simulated at that level of theory. Density functional theory is used to study the electronic structure of atoms and molecules, and calculate the force component of each atom. However, these calculations are limited to about 1000 atoms. Custom periodic boundary conditions (PBC) can be used to describe the various environments and defects that affect the atomic forces to produce a large data set from which a training set can be derived. Machine learning can be utilized to overcome the barrier of modeling macroscopic and multi-scale processes from ab initio calculations through the development of adaptive force fields. Local environments determine the atomic forces of a given system, therefore adaptive force fields must be created to produce reliable quantum mechanical calculations. This can be achieved by developing a learning algorithm that uses the mapped atomic forces or fingerprint as an input to produce energies and magnetic moments as output. A systematic approach was used to begin to build a data set in order to accurately describe the atomic forces in various environments. In Figure 4 below, a simple PBC cell of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} was first optimized. A surface optimization was performed next, followed by a hydroxylated surface optimization. Once this calculation has converged, the adsorption of halide species to the hydroxylated surface will be investigated. TensorFlow is an open source platform for machine learning developed by Google. Using a high level application program interface (API) such as Keras allows for building and training ML models easily in a number of different environments and languages. For this project, a neural network was developed within Anaconda in Python. Future Work: Further development of reference data set; Refining neural network and learning algorithm; Fingerprinting atomic environment to enable mapping of atomic force components; Choosing appropriate training set from reference data; Learning from training set and enabling non-linear mapping of training set fingerprints and the atomic forces; Estimation of uncertainty to identify ranges of outside applicability; Testing and analysis of molecular dynamic simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The use of linearized-aerodynamics and vortex-flow methods in aircraft design /invited paper/

This paper deals with selected linearized-aerodynamic and vortex-flow methods as applied to aircraft design problems at high subsonic speeds. In particular, the NASA Vortex Lattice and Modified Multhopp methods are the linearized techniques employed, and the suction analogy is used to provide estimates associated with vortex-flow aerodynamics. Many examples are given as to how researchers at Langley have used these methods to design the high subsonic, wing-mean-camber shapes for various configurations such as a supersonic transport, high-aspect-ratio transport, trapezoidal fighter wing, strake wing, tandem wing, joined wing, delta wing, and slender cranked wing. Many of these have been built, tested, and have had their data compared with theory. In addition, a technique for defining efficiently performing strake planforms for use in strake-wing combinations is discussed, and further improvements in wing design are outlined. The latter may be obtained by using higher-ordered linear panel methods as well as nonlinear-transonic methods.

Lamar, J. E.↗

Using yttrium as an indicator to estimate total rare earth element concentration: a case study of anthracite-associated clays from northeastern Pennsylvania

Abstract This study demonstrated using yttrium (Y) as an indicator to estimate the total rare earth element and Y contents (REY) in coal-associated samples and to facilitate selection of samples with high REY assays in a fast and inexpensive manner. More than 10 anthracite-associated samples were collected from each of three Pennsylvanian sites (sites B, J and C) based on Thorium gamma ray logging suggesting high REY content. Several samples from each site were analyzed by ICP-MS to determine the rare earth distribution patterns and to establish the site-specific linear equations of Y and REY. The Y contents of the remaining samples were measured by a portable X-ray fluorescence analyzer, and the REY values were estimated based on the site-specific linear equation developed earlier. R-squared values above 0.70 were obtained for all the estimation equations from all three sites on both a whole sample basis and an ash basis. Previously, ash content has been widely used as an indicator of high REY content. This may not be applicable for a specific site. Site B in this study is an example where ash contents could not be statistically correlated with REY, so using Y for estimation is more applicable. The demonstrated sample screening process is suitable for samples from sites that share more similar distribution patterns (either MREY or LREY or HREY) as well as for samples from sites that share multiple distribution patterns (LREY/MREY/HREY) depending on the desirable accuracy. The demonstrated process lowers the analytical cost from $70 to 80 dollars per sample to $10–15 per sample while significantly reducing the processing time and acid consumption for ICP digestion. This is particularly true when a relatively large sample size is involved, for example, 100 samples from one site analyzed by ICP-MS/OES.

Yang, Xiaojing↗

Bayesian probability of agreement for comparing the similarity of response surfaces

For a variety of linear and generalized linear models, there may be interest in evaluating whether the expected response values in two different populations are sufficiently similar to be considered practically equivalent. The probability of agreement has been introduced as a strategy for quantifying the similarity between two groups. We propose a Bayesian version of the probability of agreement to quantify the similarity between linear and generalized linear response surfaces. The proposed methodology is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation and it allows for an intuitive interpretation based directly on population parameters. As demonstrated, the methodology can be flexibly applied to a variety of different models. We illustrate its use with three examples for which the response depends on predictor variables through a linear, logistic, or Poisson regression model. The computation associated with this approach has been automated with a freely available R Shiny app.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experimental Investigation of a Hypersonic Glider Configuration at a Mach Number of 6 and at Full-Scale Reynolds Numbers

The aerodynamic characteristics of a hypersonic glider configuration, consisting of a slender ogive cylinder with three highly swept wings, spaced 120 apart, with the wing chord equal to the body length, were investigated experimentally at a Mach number of 6 and at Reynolds numbers from 6 to 16 million. The objectives were to evaluate the theoretical procedures which had been used to estimate the performance of the glider, and also to evaluate the characteristics of the glider itself. A principal question concerned the viscous drag at full-scale Reynolds number, there being a large difference between the total drags for laminar and turbulent boundary layers. It was found that the procedures which had been applied for estimating minimum drag, drag due to lift, lift curve slope, and center of pressure were generally accurate within 10 percent. An important exception was the non-linear contribution to the lift coefficient which had been represented by a Newtonian term. Experimentally, the lift curve was nearly linear within the angle-of-attack range up to 10 deg. This error affected the estimated lift-drag ratio. The minimum drag measurements indicated that substantial amounts of turbulent boundary layer were present on all models tested, over a range of surface roughness from 5 microinches maximum to 200 microinches maximum. In fact, the minimum drag coefficients were nearly independent of the surface smoothness and fell between the estimated values for turbulent and laminar boundary layers, but closer to the turbulent value. At the highest test Reynolds numbers and at large angles of attack, there was some indication that the skin friction of the rough models was being increased by the surface roughness. At full-scale Reynolds number, the maximum lift-drag ratio with a leading edge of practical diameter (from the standpoint of leading-edge heating) was 4.0. The configuration was statically and dynamically stable in pitch and yaw, and the center of pressure was less than 2-percent length ahead of the centroid of plan-form area.

Seiff, Alvin↗

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗

Ultrasonic nondestructive diagnosis of lithium-ion batteries with multiple frequencies

Accurately estimating the state of charge (SoC) in battery management systems (BMSs) requires the measurement of numerous parameters and advanced algorithms. This work studies multifrequency ultrasonic waves to estimate the SoC of Li-ion batteries by sensing the material changes during charge/discharge. A pouch-type LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622) graphite battery cell is designed and fabricated with a capacity of 2.4 Ah. Different ultrasonic testing setups are explored to determine the optimal testing parameters for the battery. An ultrasonic monitoring system is developed to monitor the battery during charge/discharge at 750 kHz, 1 MHz, and 1.5 MHz. Signal processing algorithms are proposed for extracting three ultrasonic features—amplitude, wave velocity, and attenuation. In a three-cycle test, the amplitude histories do not show clear correlations with the SoC. The wave velocities of all three frequencies have an approximately linear relationship with the SoC, which can be used for SoC estimation. Hysteresis behavior is observed for the wave velocity in terms of a larger slope in the discharge process and velocity drop after a close charge/discharge cycle. The wave attenuation is able to capture the material phase transitions during charge/discharge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Global Existence and Decay Rates of the Solutions Near Maxwellian for Non-linear Fokker–Planck Equations

In this paper, we study the global existence and decay rates of the solutions near Maxwellian for non-linear Fokker–Planck equations in the whole space. The global existence is proved by combining uniform-in-time energy estimates with local solution constructed by Picard type iteration sequence. The decay rates of the nonlinear model is obtained by using the precise spectral analysis of the linearized Fokker–Planck operator as well as the energy method. The nonlinearity in the model brings new difficulty to the energy estimates, which is resolved by additional tailored weighted-in-v energy estimates suitable for Fokker–Planck operators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Temporal covariance structure of multi-spectral phenotypes and their predictive ability for end-of-season traits in maize

Vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multi-spectral imaging (MSI) platforms can be used to study properties of crop canopy, providing non-destructive phenotypes that could be used to better understand growth curves throughout the growing season. To investigate the amount of variation present in several VIs and their relationship with important end-of-season traits, genetic and residual (co)variances for VIs, grain yield and moisture were estimated using data collected from maize hybrid trials. The VIs considered were Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green NDVI, Red Edge NDVI, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index and simple Ratio of Near Infrared to Red (Red) reflectance. Genetic correlations of VIs with grain yield and moisture were used to fit multi-trait models for prediction of end-of-season traits and evaluated using within site/year cross-validation. To explore alternatives to fitting multiple phenotypes from MSI, random regression models with linear splines were fit using data collected in 2016 and 2017. Heritability estimates ranging from (0.10 to 0.82) were observed, indicating that there exists considerable amount of genetic variation in these VIs. Furthermore, strong genetic and residual correlations of the VIs, NDVI and NDRE, with grain yield and moisture were found. Considerable increases in prediction accuracy were observed from the multi-trait model when using NDVI and NDRE as a secondary trait. Finally, random regression with a linear spline function shows potential to be used as an alternative to mixed models to fit VIs from multiple time points.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resilient Distributed Parameter Estimation With Heterogeneous Data

This paper studies resilient distributed estimation under measurement attacks. A set of agents each makes successive local, linear, noisy measurements of an unknown vector field collected in a vector parameter. The local measurement models are heterogeneous across agents and may be locally unobservable for the unknown parameter. An adversary compromises some of the measurement streams and changes their values arbitrarily. The agents' goal is to cooperate over a peer-to-peer communication network to process their (possibly compromised) local measurements and estimate the value of the unknown vector parameter. We present SAGE, the Saturating Adaptive Gain Estimator, a distributed, recursive, consensus + innovations estimator that is resilient to measurement attacks. We demonstrate that, as long as the number of compromised measurement streams is below a particular bound, then, SAGE guarantees that all of the agents' local estimates converge almost surely to the value of the parameter. The resilience of the estimator - i.e., the number of compromised measurement streams it can tolerate - does not depend on the topology of the inter-agent communication network. Finally, we illustrate the performance of SAGE through numerical examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intrinsic SiO{sub x}-based unipolar resistive switching memory. II. Thermal effects on charge transport and characterization of multilevel programing

Multilevel programing and charge transport characteristics of intrinsic SiO{sub x}-based resistive switching memory are investigated using TaN/SiO{sub x}/n{sup ++}Si (MIS) and TiW/SiO{sub x}/TiW (MIM) device structures. Current transport characteristics of high- and low-resistance states (HRS and LRS) are studied in both device structures during multilevel operation. Analysis of device thermal response demonstrates that the effective electron energy barrier is strongly dependent on the resistance of the programed state, with estimates of 0.1 eV in the LRS and 0.6 eV in the HRS. Linear data fitting and conductance analyses indicate Poole-Frenkel emission or hopping conductance in the low-voltage region, whereas Fowler-Nordheim (F-N) or trap-assisted tunneling (TAT) is indicated at moderate voltage. Characterizations using hopping transport lead to hopping distance estimates of ∼1 nm in the LRS for both device structures. Relative permittivity values (ε{sub r}) were extracted using the Poole-Frenkel formulism and estimates of local filament temperature, where ε{sub r} values were ∼80 in the LRS and ∼4 in the HRS, suggesting a strongly polarized medium in the LRS. The onset of F-N tunneling or TAT corresponds to an observed “overshoot” in the I-V response with an estimated threshold of 1.6 ± 0.2 V, in good agreement with reported electro-luminescence results for LRS devices. Resistive switching is discussed in terms of electrochemical reactions between common SiO{sub 2} defects, and specific defect energy levels are assigned to the dominant transitions in the I-V response. The overshoot response in the LRS is consistent with TAT through either the Eγ' oxygen vacancy or the hydrogen bridge defect, both of which are reported to have an effective bandgap of 1.7 eV. The SET threshold at ∼2.5 V is modeled as hydrogen release from the (Si-H){sub 2} defect to generate the hydrogen bridge, and the RESET transition is modeled as an electrochemical reaction that re-forms (SiH){sub 2}. The results provide further insights into charge transport and help identify potential switching mechanisms in SiO{sub x}-based unipolar resistive switching memory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Quantum algorithms for Gibbs sampling and hitting-time estimation

In this paper, we present quantum algorithms for solving two problems regarding stochastic processes. The first algorithm prepares the thermal Gibbs state of a quantum system and runs in time almost linear in √Nβ/Ζ and polynomial in log(1/ϵ), where N is the Hilbert space dimension, β is the inverse temperature, Ζ is the partition function, and ϵ is the desired precision of the output state. Our quantum algorithm exponentially improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and quadratically improves the dependence on β of known quantum algorithms for this problem. The second algorithm estimates the hitting time of a Markov chain. For a sparse stochastic matrix Ρ, it runs in time almost linear in 1/(ϵΔ 3/2 ), where ϵ is the absolute precision in the estimation and Δ is a parameter determined by Ρ, and whose inverse is an upper bound of the hitting time. Our quantum algorithm quadratically improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and 1/Δ of the analog classical algorithm for hitting-time estimation. Finally, both algorithms use tools recently developed in the context of Hamiltonian simulation, spectral gap amplification, and solving linear systems of equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗

Extraction of diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow index by integration of Nth-order linear model with Monte Carlo simulation

Conventional semi-infinite solution for extracting blood flow index (BFI) from diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) measurements may cause errors in estimation of BFI (αD{sub B}) in tissues with small volume and large curvature. We proposed an algorithm integrating Nth-order linear model of autocorrelation function with the Monte Carlo simulation of photon migrations in tissue for the extraction of αD{sub B}. The volume and geometry of the measured tissue were incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation, which overcome the semi-infinite restrictions. The algorithm was tested using computer simulations on four tissue models with varied volumes/geometries and applied on an in vivo stroke model of mouse. Computer simulations shows that the high-order (N ≥ 5) linear algorithm was more accurate in extracting αD{sub B} (errors < ±2%) from the noise-free DCS data than the semi-infinite solution (errors: −5.3% to −18.0%) for different tissue models. Although adding random noises to DCS data resulted in αD{sub B} variations, the mean values of errors in extracting αD{sub B} were similar to those reconstructed from the noise-free DCS data. In addition, the errors in extracting the relative changes of αD{sub B} using both linear algorithm and semi-infinite solution were fairly small (errors < ±2.0%) and did not rely on the tissue volume/geometry. The experimental results from the in vivo stroke mice agreed with those in simulations, demonstrating the robustness of the linear algorithm. DCS with the high-order linear algorithm shows the potential for the inter-subject comparison and longitudinal monitoring of absolute BFI in a variety of tissues/organs with different volumes/geometries.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low earth orbit for scientific, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with 8 Teledyne dosimeters over varying shielding effectiveness. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 –AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat 3 unit (U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectiveness's, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with 4 electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cmto4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm2–12.0 g/cm2) thick aluminum. For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID)increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550g/cm2-0.686 g/cm2(0.204 cm –0.254 cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness by NOVICE Sigma estimates, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from Earth's magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast, to a thin walled generic 3U CubeSat, Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm2from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the spacecraft’s mission value versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗

SCEC/USGS Community Stress-Drop Validation Study: How Spectral Fitting Approaches Influence Measured Source Parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (⁠Δσ⁠) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress‐Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low‐frequency displacement (⁠Ω 0 ⁠) and corner frequency (⁠ƒ c ⁠) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear‐ or log‐sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate ⁠Ω 0 ⁠, ƒ c ⁠, and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in and can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade‐off between Ω 0 and ƒ c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω 0 and somewhat higher ƒ c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. Finally, when compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ⁠.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiation dose and cancer risk to out-of-field and partially in-field organs from radiotherapy for symptomatic vertebral hemangiomas

Purpose: Vertebral hemangiomas (VHs) are the most common benign tumors of the spine that may cause bone resorption. Megavoltage irradiation is usually the treatment of choice for the management of symptomatic VHs. The current study was conducted to estimate the risk for carcinogenesis from radiotherapy of this benign disease on the basis of the calculated radiation doses to healthy organs. Methods: The Monte Carlo N-particle transport code was employed to simulate the irradiation with 6 MV x-rays of a VH presented in the cervical, upper thoracic, lower thoracic, and lumbar spine. The average radiation dose (D{sub av}) received by each critical organ located outside the primarily irradiated area was calculated. Three-dimensional treatment plans were also generated for the VHs occurring at the four different sites of the spinal cord based on patients’ computed tomography data. The organ equivalent dose (OED) to each radiosensitive structure, which was partly encompassed by the applied treatment fields, was calculated with the aid of differential dose–volume histograms. The D{sub av} and the OED values were combined with a linear-no-threshold model and a nonlinear mechanistic model, respectively, to estimate the organ-, age-, and gender-specific lifetime attributable risks (LARs) for cancer development. The estimated risks were compared with the respective nominal lifetime intrinsic risks (LIRs) for the unexposed population. Results: For a standard target dose of 34 Gy, the OED varied from 0.39–5.15 Gy by the organ of interest and the irradiation site. The D{sub av} range for the out-of-field organs was 4.9 × 10{sup −4} to 0.56 Gy. The LAR for the appearance of malignancies in the partially in-field organs after radiotherapy of male and female patients was (0.08%–1.8%) and (0.09%–1.9%), respectively. These risk values were 1.5–15.5 times lower when compared to the respective LIRs. The lifetime probability for out-of-field cancer induction in irradiated males and females was (2.5 × 10{sup −4} to 7.7 × 10{sup −2})% and (1.4 × 10{sup −4} to 2.6 × 10{sup −1})%, respectively. The above risks were one to four orders of magnitude lower than the LIRs. Conclusions: The probability for the development of out-of-field malignancies due to radiotherapy for VHs is trivial with respect to the nominal risk for unexposed population. The respective cancer risks to partially in-field organs are smaller than the nominal probabilities but they should not be considered as inconsiderable. These risks may be taken into account during the follow-up of patients treated for a symptomatic VH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An assessment of current methods for drag-due-to-lift minimization at supersonic speeds

The estimation and minimization of drag-due-to-lift at supersonic speeds has been examined in this study. Correlations of theory with experimental data are used to assess the applicability and limitations of the linearized theory. The role of leading-edge thrust and the use of twist and camber to develop distributed thrust are also discussed. A semiempirical design and estimation method which takes into account the shortcomings of the linear theory is presented. The use of this method will allow the design of more nearly optimum lifting surfaces and provide an accurate prediction of their level of performance. A preliminary examination is made of the use of an Euler code for estimation of the aerodynamic characteristics of a twisted and cambered wing.

Mann, Michael J.↗