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Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to the Greater Mekong Subregion. Our models have been applied to malaria in Indonesia, Korea, and other regions in the world with similar success.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Inference of precipitation through thermal infrared measurements of soil moisture

The physics of microwave radiative transfer is well understood so that causal models can be assembled which relate the observed brightness temperatures to assumed distributions of hydrometeors (both liquid and ice), non-precipitating clouds, water vapor oxygen, and surface conditions. Present models assume a Marshall Palmer size distribution of liquid hydrometers from the surface to the freezing level (near the 0 C isotherm) and a variable thickness of frozen hydrometeors above that with various reasonable distribution of the other relevant constituents. The validity of such models is discussed. All uncertainties in the rain rate retrieval algorithms can be expressed in terms of specific model uncertainties which can be addressed through appropriate measurements. Those factors which must be known to achieve umambiguous results can be identified so that rainfall measuring algorithms can be developed and improved. The emissivity of the underlying surface significantly affects the contrast that may be measured between areas covered by rain and those which are dry. Sensing strategies for measuring rain over the ocean and rain over land are reviewed.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Cirrus cloud properties derived from satellite and coincident lidar data taken during the FIRE IFO

Cloud-top temperatures are derived from lidar measurements taken during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment Cirrus Intensive Field Observation program in October-November, 1986. The results are used to estimate cloud emissivities from satellite-measured IR radiances. The relationship beween IR emissivity and the observed visible reflectances for various solar zenith and satellite zenith angles. The results support the model of flux emissivity vs cloud albedo which is used in the ISCCP cloud property retrieval algorithm. Also, the results show that scattering is more isotropic than previous studies have suggested.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Effects of the Antenna Aperture on Remote Sensing of Sea Surface Salinity at L-Band

Remote sensing of sea surface salinity with sufficient accuracy to meet the needs of global oceanography is a challenging task. The global variability of the salinity signal in the open ocean is only a few Kelvin even at L-band and an accuracy on the order of 0.1K is desired to study the influence of salinity on ocean circulation and energy exchange with the atmosphere. On the other hand, resolution is not an issue for understanding the dynamics of the open ocean where scales of hundreds of km are not uncommon. This permits remote sensing with large antenna footprints and spatial averaging to reduce noise. However, antennas with large footprints introduce other problems. For example, the angle of incidence and hence the brightness temperature varies over the footprint. Similarly, the polarization of brightness temperature relative to the antenna ports changes. Studies have been conducted using antenna patterns representative of the antenna that will be flown on the Aquarius mission to examine these effects. Aquarius is a pushbroom style radiometer with three beams looking across track away from the sun. The beams are at incidences angles (at the spacecraft) of about 26.5, 34 and 40 degrees each with a half-power beam width of about 5.8 degrees. It is shown that the measured brightness temperature is biased relative to the value at boresight because of changes across the field of view. The bias can be as much as 4K and positive or negative depending on polarization. Polarization mixing because of the variations of the local plane of incidence across the footprint also occur and can result in biased polarimetric measurements. A bias in the third Stokes parameter of as much as 0.4K is possible. Such effects may affect algorithms that use the third Stokes parameter to correct for Faraday rotation. Another issue associated with the antenna is sun glint. This is an issue determined by surface roughness and antenna sidelobes. Examples will be given for the random component (glint) for the case of the Aquarius antenna beams. Fortunately, the Aquarius beams mostly look to the dark side of the day-night termination, but during some portions of the year they will see sun-lighted ocean. In this case, glint could be an issue for the inner-most beam.

Dinnat, Emmanuel P.↗

The Dependence of Cirrus Gamma Size Distributions Expressed as Volumes in N(sub 0)-Lambda-Mu Phase Space and Bulk Cloud Properties on Environmental Conditions: Results from the Small Ice Particles in Cirrus Experiment (SPARTICUS)

The variability of cirrus ice microphysical properties is investigated using observations obtained during the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign. An existing approach that represents a size distribution (SD) as a single gamma function using an ellipsoid of equally realizable solutions in (N(sub 0), lambda, mu) phase space is modified to automatically identify multiple modes in SDs and characterize each mode by such an ellipsoid. The modified approach is applied to ice crystals with maximum dimension D greater than15 micrometers collected by the 2-D stereo and 2-D precipitation probes on the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet. The dependencies of N(sub 0), mu, and lambda from each mode, total number concentration, bulk extinction, ice water content (IWC), and mass median maximum dimension D(sub mm) as a function of temperature T and cirrus type are then analyzed. The changes in the observed codependencies between N(sub 0), mu, and lambda, bulk extinction, IWC, and D(sub mm) with environmental conditions indicate that particles were larger at higher T during SPARTICUS. At most two modes were observed in any SD during SPARTICUS, with the average boundary between them at 115 micrometers, similar to past studies not using probes with shatter mitigating tips and artifact removal algorithms. The bimodality of the SDs increased with T. This and the differences in N(sub 0), mu, and lambda between the modes suggest that particles with smaller D nucleated more recently than particles with larger D, which grew via vapor deposition and aggregation. Because smaller crystals, whose concentrations are uncertain, make marginal contributions to higher order moments, the use of higher moments for evaluating model fields is suggested.

Ellipsoids↗

A GaN-based Four-Switch Buck-Boost Converter using Ripple Correlation Control for Maximum Power Point Tracking in Dynamic Deep Space Environments

As the demand for high-performance power conversion in spacecraft continues to grow and spacecraft mass and volume budgets become increasingly tight, it is essential to design DC-DC converters with higher efficiency and power density. Although photovoltaic (PV) efficiency has increased over time, solar irradiance and temperatures can fluctuate dramatically in deep space. This causes significant variations in the maximum power point (MPP) of the PV array, which can decrease the overall system efficiency unless accounted for. Thus, it is imperative to track the MPP of the PV panels to maintain optimal efficiency. This paper presents the experimental development of a four-switch, GaN-based buck-boost converter with an implementation of the Ripple Correlation Control (RCC) MPPT algorithm for dynamic deep space environments. Due to the use of GaN HEMTs, the experimental system achieves better efficiency and power density compared to the previous state of the art implementations. A simulation of the prototype buck-boost converter was implemented in SaberRD (Synopsis), and a digital design of the RCC-based MPPT controller utilizing the StateAMS tool is presented. The simulation results show that this controller swiftly and precisely converged to the MPP of the source PV panels in a dynamic solar irradiance condition.

Mahmud, Sadab↗

Explore Information Content Efficiently from Current and Future Hyperspectral Satellite Missions using a Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral remote sensors from current and future missions provide measurements of the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra with high information content. For example, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) have provided more than 20 years radiance measurements with thousands of spectral channels. These measurements will be continued for the next two decades with the same or more advanced hyperspectral sensors. The upcoming missions such as NASA’s CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) and ESA’s TRUTHS will provide unprecedented accurate TOA hyperspectral radiance measurements in solar spectral region. Traditional ways to derive Climate Data Records (CDRs) from these measurements are performing spatial and temporal averages of the retrieved Level-2 products. However, it is a time-consuming process to generate decades of Level-2 data from Level-1 data. Furthermore, the differences in Level-2 algorithms used for different satellite sensors will introduce errors in derived CDRs. In this presentation, we will describe a spectral fingerprinting method to generate high-quality CDRs directly from spatiotemporally averaged Level-1 data. By using consistent radiative kernels which contain the spectral information of various atmospheric and surface CDRs, we can reduce the errors due to algorithm inconsistency. Additionally, the spectral fingerprinting method reduces the time needed to generate CDRs by more than three orders of magnitude. This makes it easy to reprocess CDRs once the Level-1 data from different satellites have been improved via either re-calibrations or inter-satellite calibrations. We will present results of applying spectral fingerprinting method to 20-years of AIRS and CrIS data. The resulting CDRs include: 1) vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and water vapor, 2) cloud properties such as optical depth, effective size, and height, 3) vertical profiles or column amounts for atmospheric trace gases such as O3 and CO, and 4) surface emissivity spectra and skin temperatures. These CDRs will be publicly available at NASA GES DISC in late 2024. The same fingerprinting method is planned to be applied to future CPF and TRUTHS data for solar spectral region.

hyperspectral remote sensing↗

Thermal Conductivity and Specific Heat Measurements of Candidate Structural Materials for the JWST Optical Bench

The James Webb Space Telescope will include an optical bench known as the integrated science instrument module (ISIM). Candidate structural materials for the ISIM must have low density, high stiffness, high thermal conductivity, and low thermal expansion coefficient at the operating temperature of 30 Kelvin. The specific heat is also important in modeling the on-orbit cooldown. We built two different systems for measuring the thermal conductivity and specific heat of samples between 4 Kelvin and 290 Kelvin. Both experiments were carefully designed to minimize potential errors due to radiative heat transfer. We chose the cooling system and instrumentation to allow long-term unattended operation. Software was developed to automate each experiment. It used an algorithm designed to ensure that each system was in thermal equilibrium before a measurement was taken. We describe the two experiments and present the data.

Canavan, E. R.↗

Improving Adhesive Bondline Time of Flight Predictions During Autoclave Cure Utilizing Machine Learning

Composite materials are increasingly being used in aerospace applications due to their superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to commonly used metals. A current limitation to widespread adoption is the certification of adhesively bonded joints. One approach to improving adhesive bonding in composites is accurately measuring the thickness of adhesive bondlines in composite laminates. Precise bondline thickness control is essential for aerospace applications where adhesive layer thickness directly affects joint fracture properties and structural performance. This study focused on implementing machine learning techniques to determine the ultrasonic time of flight (directly correlated to thickness) in adhesive bondlines throughout autoclave cure cycles. A high-temperature (use up to 180°C) ultrasonic scanning system was deployed in an autoclave to provide time of flight data through composite panels. Three experiments were conducted on the curing of 305 mm × 305 mm unidirectional composite panels. In the first experiment, a piecewise function was fit for the temperature correction factor to account for changing autoclave temperatures. Due to deficiencies in the first calibration experiment, a second experiment was run, and the results were used to train a machine learning model. The revised experiment, in combination with the machine learning model, significantly increased the accuracy of the bondline time of flight predictions (~14% error reduced to <1%). Data was processed using the Regression Learner Application in MATLAB®, with a Support Vector Machine selected for the model. The result was a machine learning algorithm capable of reliably quantifying ultrasonic time of flight through adhesive bondlines. The third experiment provided independent test data for the machine learning model, demonstrating that the model produces accurate predictions from data beyond its training set.

Machine Learning↗

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗

Uncertainty Estimation for SMAP Level-1 Brightness Temperature Assimilation at Different Timescales

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission brightness temperature (T(b) ) observations are assimilated into NASA’s Catchment Land Surface Model using an Ensemble Kalman filter to update simulations of surface and root-zone soil moisture. Different time series components of the T(b) observations are assimilated including anomalies, inter-annual variations, and high frequency variations. To optimize the weights that the data assimilation (DA) puts on the observations, the ratio between the uncertainties of modeled and observed T(b) is approximated using modeled and observed soil moisture uncertainties estimated using triple collocation analysis. In a benchmark experiment, T(b) observations are assimilated using a spatially constant 4 Kelvin (K) observation uncertainty, as in the operational SMAP Level-4 algorithm. All DA experiments exhibit notable skill improvements in most regions. Improvements are largest for the inter-annual variations in the simulations of both surface and root-zone soil moisture (mean improvements in terms of Pearson correlation (-) are 0.08 and 0.06, respectively). Anomaly simulations improve similarly (0.07), and improvements in the high-frequency variations are only observed for surface soil moisture simulations (0.06). No notable difference in skill - neither improvement nor deterioration - is observed between the experiments that use optimized observation uncertainty parameters and the 4 K benchmark experiment. This may be explained by the presence of large observation operator errors, which are analytically shown to have the potential to render post-update uncertainty insensitive to inaccuracies in estimates of the Kalman gain. These results have important implications for the design of soil moisture DA systems, in particular for parameterizing model and observation uncertainties.

Hydrology↗

A curve-fitting technique for the determination of gain and saturation intensity in homogeneously-broadened gas lasers: Application to a waveguide CO2 laser

A least squares curve-fitting algorithm is derived which allows the simultaneous estimation of the small signal gain and the saturation intensity from an arbitrary number of data points relating power output to the incidence angle of an internal coupling plate. The method is used to study the dependence of the two parameters on tube pressure and discharge current in a waveguide CO2 laser having a 2 mm diameter capillary. It is found that, at pressures greater than 28 torr, rising CO2 temperature degrades the small signal gain at current levels as low as three milliamperes.

Degnan, J. J.↗

Nonlinear problems of the theory of heterogeneous slightly curved shells

An account if given of the variational method of the solution of physically and geometrically nonlinear problems of the theory of heterogeneous slightly curved shells. Examined are the bending and supercritical behavior of plates and conical and spherical cupolas of variable thickness in a temperature field, taking into account the dependence of the elastic parameters on temperature. The bending, stability in general and load-bearing capacity of flexible isotropic elastic-plastic shells with different criteria of plasticity, taking into account compressibility and hardening. The effect of the plastic heterogeneity caused by heat treatment, surface work hardening and irradiation by fast neutron flux is investigated. Some problems of the dynamic behavior of flexible shells are solved. Calculations are performed in high approximations. Considerable attention is given to the construction of a machine algorithm and to the checking of the convergence of iterative processes.

Kantor, B. Y.↗

CFD flowfield simulation of Delta Launch Vehicles in a power-on configuration

This paper summarizes recent work at McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA) to develop and validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of under expanded rocket plume external flowfields for multibody expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). Multi engine reacting gas flowfield predictions of ELV base pressures are needed to define vehicle base drag and base heating rates for sizing external nozzle and base region insulation thicknesses. Previous ELV design programs used expensive multibody power-on wind tunnel tests that employed chamber/nozzle injected high pressure cold or hot-air. Base heating and pressure measurements were belatedly made during the first flights of past ELV's to correct estimates from semi-empirical engineering models or scale model tests. Presently, CFD methods for use in ELV design are being jointly developed at the Space Transportation Division (MDA-STD) and New Aircraft Missiles Division (MDA-NAMD). An explicit three dimensional, zonal, finite-volume, full Navier-Stokes (FNS) solver with finite rate hydrocarbon/air and aluminum combustion kinetics was developed to accurately compute ELV power-on flowfields. Mississippi State University's GENIE++ general purpose interactive grid generation code was chosen to create zonal, finite volume viscous grids. Axisymmetric, time dependent, turbulent CFD simulations of a Delta DSV-2A vehicle with a MB-3 liquid main engine burning RJ-1/LOX were first completed. Hydrocarbon chemical kinetics and a k-epsilon turbulence model were employed and predictions were validated with flight measurements of base pressure and temperature. Zonal internal/external grids were created for a Delta DSV-2C vehicle with a MB-3 and three Castor-1 solid motors burning and a Delta-2 with an RS-27 main engine (LOX/RP-1) and 9 GEM's attached/6 burning. Cold air, time dependent FNS calculations were performed for DSV-2C during 1992. Single phase simulations that employ finite rate hydrocarbon and aluminum (solid fuel) combustion chemistry are currently in progress. Reliable and efficient Eulerian algorithms are needed to model two phase (solid-gas) momentum and energy transfer mechanisms for solid motor fuel combustion products.

Pavish, D. L.↗

Mixed Layer Drift Revealed by Satellite Data

For the first time we are able to derive ocean currents using the wavelet algorithm for feature tracking from two different sensors (MODIS and SeaWiFS) on different satellites. Satellite ocean color data provide an important insight to the marine biosphere because of their capability to quantify certain fundamental properties (such as phytoplankton pigment concentration, marine primary production, etc.) on a global basis. The mixed layer drift can be derived because the ocean color signal bears information from a much larger depth (10 to 30 meters) as compared with the sea surface temperature data. Although the drifter data are very limited in the study area, the comparison shows a general agreement between drifter data and satellite tracking results, especially for the cases near the Gulf Stream boundary.

Liu, Antony K.↗

A Systems-Level Perspective on Engine Ice Accretion

The accretion of ice in the compression system of commercial gas turbine engines operating in high ice water content conditions is a safety issue being studied by the aviation sector. While most of the research focuses on the underlying physics of ice accretion and the meteorological conditions in which accretion can occur, a systems-level perspective on the topic lends itself to potential near-term operational improvements. This work focuses on developing an accurate and reliable algorithm for detecting the accretion of ice in the low pressure compressor of a generic 40,000 lbf thrust class engine. The algorithm uses only the two shaft speed sensors and works regardless of engine age, operating condition, and power level. In a 10,000-case Monte Carlo simulation, the detection approach was found to have excellent capability at determining ice accretion from sensor noise with detection occurring when ice blocks an average of 6.8% of the low pressure compressor area. Finally, an initial study highlights a potential mitigation strategy that uses the existing engine actuators to raise the temperature in the low pressure compressor in an effort to reduce the rate at which ice accretes.

May, Ryan D.↗

An Approach to Detect and Mitigate Ice Particle Accretion in Aircraft Engine Compression Systems

The accretion of ice in the compression system of commercial gas turbine engines operating in high ice water content conditions is a safety issue being studied by the aviation sector. While most of the research focuses on the underlying physics of ice accretion and the meteorological conditions in which accretion can occur, a systems-level perspective on the topic lends itself to potential near-term operational improvements. This work focuses on developing an accurate and reliable algorithm for detecting the accretion of ice in the low pressure compressor of a generic 40,000 lbf thrust class engine. The algorithm uses only the two shaft speed sensors and works regardless of engine age, operating condition, and power level. In a 10,000-case Monte Carlo simulation, the detection approach was found to have excellent capability at determining ice accretion from sensor noise with detection occurring when ice blocks an average of 6.8% of the low pressure compressor area. Finally, an initial study highlights a potential mitigation strategy that uses the existing engine actuators to raise the temperature in the low pressure compressor in an effort to reduce the rate at which ice accretes.

May, Ryan D.↗

Polarization Decomposition and Temperature Bias Resolution for SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Retrieval Using Time Series Brightness Temperature Observations

In passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, the tau-omega (τ-ω) model has often been used to provide soil moisture estimates at a spatial scale representative of the satellite footprint dimensions. For modeling simplicity, model parameters such as the single scattering albedo (ω) and vegetation opacity (τ) that go into the geophysical inversion process are often assumed to be independent of polarizations. Although this absence of polarization dependence can often be justified in special cases as in low-frequency remote sensing or under dense vegetation conditions, it is not a robust assumption in general. Additional model parameterization errors arising from this assumption are possible, leading to degradation in soil moisture estimation accuracy. In this paper, we propose a time series approach to try to resolve the polarization dependence of several τ-ω model parameters as well as the temperature bias arising from the ancillary temperature data. The Version 4 of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 1B brightness temperature time series observations were used to illustrate the mechanics of this approach, with an emphasis on a comparison between resulting satellite soil moisture retrievals and in situ data collected at several core validation sites. It was found that this time series approach resulted in significant reduction of the dry bias exhibited in the current SMAP passive soil moisture data products, while retaining the same performance in other metrics of the current baseline passive soil moisture retrieval algorithm.

time series↗