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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Ligand dynamics control structure, elasticity, and high-pressure behavior of nanoparticle superlattices

Precise engineering of nanoparticle superlattices (NPSLs) for energy applications requires a molecular-level understanding of the physical factors governing their morphology, periodicity, mechanics, and response to external stimuli. Such knowledge, particularly the impact of ligand dynamics on physical behavior of NPSLs, is still in its infancy. Here in this paper, we combine coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations, and small angle X-ray scattering experiments in a diamond anvil cell to demonstrate that coverage density of capping ligands (i.e., number of ligands per unit area of a nanoparticle's surface), strongly influences the structure, elasticity, and high-pressure behavior of NPSLs using face-centered cubic PbS-NPSLs as a representative example. We demonstrate that ligand coverage density dictates (a) the extent of diffusion of ligands over NP surfaces, (b) spatial distribution of the ligands in the interstitial spaces between neighboring NPs, and (c) the fraction of ligands that interdigitate across different nanoparticles. We find that below a critical coverage density (1.8 nm-2 for 7 nm PbS NPs capped with oleic acid), NPSLs collapse to form disordered aggregates via sintering, even under ambient conditions. Above the threshold ligand coverage density, NPSLs surprisingly preserve their crystalline order even under high applied pressures (~40–55 GPa), and show a completely reversible pressure behavior. This opens the possibility of reversibly manipulating lattice spacing of NPSLs, and in turn, finely tuning their collective electronic, optical, thermo-mechanical, and magnetic properties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

HFPK 334: An unusual supernova remnant in the Small Magellanic Cloud

We present new Australia Telescope Compact Array radio-continuum and XMM-Newton/Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of the unusual supernova remnant (SNR) HFPK 334 in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). The remnant follows a shell-type morphology in the radio continuum and has a size of ∼20 pc at the SMC distance. The X-ray morphology is similar; however, we detect a prominent point source close to the center of the SNR exhibiting a spectrum with a best-fit power law with a photon index of Γ = 2.7 ± 0.5. This central point source is most likely a background object and cannot be directly associated with the remnant. The high temperature, nonequilibrium conditions in the diffuse region suggest that this gas has been recently shocked and points toward a younger SNR with an age of ≲ 1800 yr. With an average radio spectral index of α = –0.59 ± 0.09, we find that an equipartition magnetic field for the remnant is ∼90 μG, a value typical of younger SNRs in low-density environments. Also, we report the detection of scattered radio polarization across the remnant at 20 cm, with a peak fractional polarization level of 25% ± 5%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Consistent Relativistic Electron Scattering using the Sherlock Scattering Model for X-ray Diagnostics

We present on a new, self-consistent, arbitrary-temperature Romberg integration scheme for modeling electron scattering in materials in a LANL Lagrangian Shock Hydro (LSH) code. Electron beam-target interactions are fundamental to a wide range of scientific and technological applications. When high-energy electron beams hit their target, they may scatter, deposit energy, or ionize the source. These processes govern the behavior and outcomes in nanotechnology manufacturing, electron microscopy, and modern X-ray diagnostics. Simulating these interactions is essential for interpreting experimental results, predicting material responses, and designing efficient tools and experiments. At Los Alamos, this is done using a LSH code, which is a multi-dimension, multi-material, massively parallel, multi-physics code used to simulate applications from asteroid impacts to electron beam interactions. By effectively and efficiently modeling the way that electrons scatter from the beam we can bolster these simulations and more accurately predict experimental outcomes. The model currently implemented in the LSH of interest is based on work by Papp and does not self-consistently preserve momentum in the slightly relativistic regime; here we adopt a model proposed by Braams and Karney and implement a Romberg integration scheme to compute the diffusion tensor. In this paper we will provide background on the Braams-Karney diffusion tensor as well as the Romberg integration scheme we employed to numerically solve for it. We will show that our integration scheme is accurate in solving for the set of scalar potentials used to re-express the diffusion tensor in differential form, and in solving for the diffusion coefficients in the larger LSH code. By using this diffusion tensor rather than the existing Papp one, and numerically integrating it with a Romberg method, we produce much more accurate, self-consistent results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for low-energy neutrinos from astrophysical sources with Borexino

We report on searches for neutrinos and antineutrinos from astrophysical sources performed with the Borexino detector at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. Electron antineutrinos ( $\bar{ν}_e$ ) are detected in an organic liquid scintillator through the inverse β -decay reaction. In the present work we set model-independent upper limits in the energy range 1.8-16.8 MeV on neutrino fluxes from unknown sources that improve our previous results, on average, by a factor 2.5. Using the same data set, we first obtain experimental constraints on the diffuse supernova $\bar{ν}_e$ fluxes in the previously unexplored region below 8 MeV. A search for $\bar{ν}_e$ in the solar neutrino flux is also presented: the presence of $\bar{ν}_e$ would be a manifestation of a non-zero anomalous magnetic moment of the neutrino, making possible its conversion to antineutrinos in the strong magnetic field of the Sun. We obtain a limit for a solar $\bar{ν}_e$ flux of 384 cm -2 s -1 (90% C.L.), assuming an undistorted solar 8 B neutrinos energy spectrum, that corresponds to a transition probability pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 7.2 ×10-5 (90% C.L.) for E $\bar{ν}_e$ > 1.8 MeV.At lower energies, by investigating the spectral shape of elastic scattering events, we obtain a new limit on solar 7 Be- ν e conversion into $\bar{ν}_e$ of pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 0.14 (90% C.L.) at 0.862 MeV. Last, we investigate solar flares as possible neutrino sources and obtain the strongest up-to-date limits on the fluence of neutrinos of all flavor neutrino below 3–7 MeV. Assuming the neutrino flux to be proportional to the flare’s intensity, we exclude an intense solar flare as the cause of the observed excess of events in run 117 of the Cl-Ar Homestake experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Central Role of Oxo Clusters in Zirconium‐Based Esterification Catalysis

Oxo clusters are a unique link between oxide nanocrystals and Metal‐Organic Frameworks (MOFs), representing the limit of downscaling each of the respective crystals. Herein, the superior catalytic activity of clusters, compared to zirconium MOF UiO‐66 and nanocrystals is shown. Focus is on esterification reactions given their general importance in consumer products and the challenge of converting large substrates. Oxo clusters have a higher surface‐to‐volume ratio than nanocrystals, rendering them more active. For large substrates, for example, oleic acid, MOF UiO‐66 has negligible catalytic activity while clusters provide almost quantitative conversion, a fact we ascribe to limited diffusion of large substrates through the MOF pores. Clusters do not suffer from limited mass transfer and we also obtain high conversion in solvent‐free reactions with sterically hindered alcohols (hexanol, 2‐ethyl hexanol, benzyl alcohol, and neopentyl alcohol). The cluster catalyst can be recovered and shows identical activity when reused. The structural integrity of the cluster is confirmed using X‐ray total scattering and pair distribution function analysis. Moreover, when homogeneous zirconium alkoxides are used as catalysts, the same oxo cluster is retrieved, showing that oxo clusters are the active catalytic species, even in previously assumed homogeneously catalyzed reactions.

Pulparayil Mathew, Jikson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Addition of Chloroform in a Solvent-in-Salt Electrolyte: Outcomes in the Microscopic Dynamics in Bulk and Confinement

Solvent-in-salt electrolytes (SISEs) are a promising alternative to the electrolytes currently used in commercial devices. Despite the SISEs’ advantages, their utilization is not yet realized due to the poor mobility of their chemical species. Here, we explore this problem by adding chloroform to a SISE formed by acetonitrile and a Li-salt. First, we performed illustrative cycling experiments to highlight the potential of this approach. Then, we focused on the description of the microscopic dynamics of the electrolytes and exposed the relevant aspects to be considered for their optimal performance. While the conductivity at low temperatures may be enhanced by the addition of chloroform, only subtle changes occur at room temperature. As revealed by molecular dynamics simulations and quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) experiments, this effect is related to the preservation of the structure expected for a highly concentrated solution and promotion of the formation of ionic aggregates. These outcomes occur despite the increase in the overall mobility of the chemical species. The dynamics of the electrolytes in porous carbon was also investigated using QENS. In these circumstances, low concentrations of chloroform lead to diffusivities of the molecular species higher than those observed for the bulk electrolytes. As chloroform’s concentration increases, no further changes in the diffusivities are observed. Nonetheless, chloroform is mostly immobilized on the carbon surfaces and this behavior may be intensified at compositions closer to the eutectic mixture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detection of ultraviolet halos around highly inclined galaxies

We report the discovery of diffuse ultraviolet light around late-type galaxies out to 5-20 kpc from the midplane using Swift and GALEX images. The emission is consistent with the stellar outskirts in the early-type galaxies but not in the late-type galaxies, where the emission is quite blue and consistent with a reflection nebula powered by light escaping from the galaxy and scattering off dust in the halo. Our results agree with expectations from halo dust discovered in extinction by Ménard et al. to within a few kpc of the disk and imply a comparable amount of hot and cold gas in galaxy halos (a few× 10{sup 8} M{sub ☉} within 20 kpc) if the dust resides primarily in Mg II absorbers. The results also highlight the potential of UV photometry to study individual galaxy halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of polarization-reversed EMIC waves on the ring current dynamics

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are widely believed to play an important role in influencing the radiation belt and ring current dynamics. Most studies have investigated the effects or characteristics of EMIC waves by assuming their left-handed polarization. However, recent studies have found that the reversal of polarization, which occurs at higher latitudes along the wave propagation path, can change the wave-induced pitch angle diffusion coefficients. Whether such a polarization reversal can influence the global ring current dynamics remains unknown. In this study, we investigate the ring current dynamics and proton precipitation loss in association with polarization-reversed EMIC waves by using the ring current–atmosphere interactions model (RAM). The results indicate that the polarization reversal of H-band EMIC waves can truly decrease the scattering rates of protons of 10 to 50 keV or >100 keV in comparison with the scenario in which the EMIC waves are considered purely left-handed polarized. Additionally, the global ring current intensity and proton precipitation may be slightly affected by the polarization reversal, especially during prestorm time and the recovery phase, but the effects are not large during the main phase. This is probably because the H-band EMIC waves contribute to the proton scattering loss primarily at E < 10 keV, an energy range that is not strongly affected by the polarization reversal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Toward Molecule-Specific Geochemistry of Heavy Ends: Application to the Upstream Oil Industry

Detailed molecular analysis of the composition of petroleum is typically performed on only the light (volatile) fraction, using analyses involving gas chromatography (GC). Heavier (nonvolatile) components such as kerogen, bitumen, and asphaltenes, which are relevant to conventional reservoirs and particularly to unconventional gas shale and tight oil formations, are not amenable to analysis by GC and instead are typically studied by more phenomenological techniques. This report describes a suite of analytical techniques that can provide sufficient average molecular information on the heavy ends (defined as the nonvolatile fraction) to be useful for a variety of industrial applications, expanding the discipline of molecule-specific geochemistry into the non-GC amenable fractions of petroleum materials. Heavy ends are composed of the elements C, H, N, S, and O, and the bonding environments of each can be measured by various solid state spectroscopies: nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and infrared (IR) spectroscopies for C, H, and O; X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy for S and N. Additionally, advances in mass spectrometry, including techniques such as laser desorption laser ionization mass spectrometry (L2MS), can be used to measure the molecular weight and dominant molecular architecture of asphaltenes. Moreover, higher-order structures can be measured: samples of kerogen with representative pore geometry can be prepared, and those pore systems are analyzed with techniques such as X-ray diffraction and neutron scattering. Colloidal structures of asphaltenes can be measured with a variety of techniques, which reveal a hierarchical aggregation structure. These analyses provide sufficient structural data to enable structure–property and structure–function relationships to be determined, which can be applied to the characterization of conventional and unconventional resources. In gas shale and tight oil formations, which contain abundant inorganic minerals as well as kerogen, diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) is used for simultaneous analysis of mineralogy, kerogen content, and maturity, typically performed at the wellsite. In conventional reservoirs, spatial variations in the asphaltene concentration measured by downhole fluid analysis logging tools are being interpreted with a recently developed equation of state to address upstream issues such as reservoir connectivity, tar mat formation, and fault block migration. Furthermore, as more heavy end analyses are developed, further scientific knowledge and industrial applications of heavy end geochemistry are anticipated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Perpendicular dynamics of runaway electrons in tokamak plasmas

In this paper, it will be shown that the runaway phenomenon in tokamak plasmas cannot be reduced to a one-dimensional problem, based on the competence between electric field acceleration and collisional friction losses in the parallel direction. A Langevin approach, including collisional diffusion in velocity space, will be used to analyze the two-dimensional runaway electron dynamics. An investigation of the runaway probability in velocity space will yield a criterion for runaway, which will be shown to be consistent with the results provided by the more simple test particle description of the runaway dynamics [Fuchs et al., Phys. Fluids 29, 2931 (1986)]. Electron perpendicular collisional scattering will be found to play an important role, relaxing the conditions for runaway. Moreover, electron pitch angle scattering perpendicularly broadens the runaway distribution function, increasing the electron population in the runaway plateau region in comparison with what it should be expected from electron acceleration in the parallel direction only. The perpendicular broadening of the runaway distribution function, its dependence on the plasma parameters, and the resulting enhancement of the runaway production rate will be discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Formation of Non-Doped Cubic Lithium Lanthanum Zirconium Oxide Nanofibers: Insights from In Situ Synchrotron X-Ray Scattering

This study investigates the formation mechanism of non-doped cubic lithium lanthanum zirconium oxide (c-LLZO) nanofibers using in situ synchrotron X-ray scattering techniques. Electrospun polymer precursor nanofibers were annealed at temperatures up to 800 °C, enabling real-time tracking of phase transitions via simultaneous small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS), and evolved CO 2 gas analysis. The results reveal a three-step transformation pathway: polymer decomposition, formation of La 2 Zr 2 O 7 (LZO), and direct conversion of LZO to c-LLZO without intermediate tetragonal phases detected within the sensitivity of our in situ WAXS measurement. Cryo-electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) further elucidates the role of lithium diffusion, showing Li enrichment at fiber surfaces and Li deficiency in the interior, which stabilizes the cubic phase. This Li segregation effect in nanostructured LLZO materials extends beyond the previously reported size effect. This work advances the understanding of c-LLZO formation mechanisms and provides practical insights for optimizing synthesis routes to achieve phase-pure c-LLZO for solid-state battery applications.

LLZO phase stability↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quasielastic neutron scattering with in situ humidity control: Water dynamics in uranyl fluoride

The structural phase diagram of uranyl fluoride (UO{sub 2}F{sub 2}), while incomplete, contains at least one anhydrous crystal structure and a second, zeolite-like structure with the formula [(UO{sub 2}F{sub 2})(H{sub 2}O)]{sub 7} ⋅ (H{sub 2}O){sub 4} that can be produced by adding water to the anhydrous structure. While traditional diffraction measurements can easily differentiate these crystals, additional aqueous structures (in general of the form UO{sub 2}F{sub 2} + xH{sub 2}O) have been proposed as well. We present results using a novel sample environment setup to intercalate water during a quasielastic neutron scattering measurement over the course of 86 h. Our sample environment allows low-pressure (<2 atm) humid air flow across the sample coupled with a system to control the relative humidity of this air flow between 10% and 70%. The water dynamics in UO{sub 2}F{sub 2} and [(UO{sub 2}F{sub 2})(H{sub 2}O)]{sub 7} ⋅ (H{sub 2}O){sub 4} are sufficiently different to distinguish them, with water in the latter executing a restricted diffusion (D = 2.7 × 10{sup −6} cm{sup 2}/s) within the structure's accessible pores (r = 3.17 Å) such that the dynamics can be used as a fingerprinting tool. We confirm that water vapor pressure is the driving thermodynamic force for the conversion of the anhydrous structure to [(UO{sub 2}F{sub 2})(H{sub 2}O)]{sub 7} ⋅ (H{sub 2}O){sub 4}, and we demonstrate the feasibility of extending this approach to aqueous forms of UO{sub 2}F{sub 2} + xH{sub 2}O. This method has general applicability to systems in which water content itself is a driving variable for structural or dynamical phase transitions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Superior thermoelectric performance in PbTe-PbS pseudo-binary. Extremely low thermal conductivity and modulated carrier concentration

Lead chalcogenides have exhibited their irreplaceable role as thermoelectric materials at the medium temperature range, owing to highly degenerate electronic bands and intrinsically low thermal conductivities. PbTe-PbS pseudo-binary has been paid extensive attentions due to the even lower thermal conductivity which originates largely from the coexistence of both alloying and phase-separated precipitations. To investigate the competition between alloying and phase separation and its pronounced effect on the thermoelectric performance in PbTe-PbS, we systematically studied Spark Plasma Sintered (SPSed), 3 at% Na- doped (PbTe) 1-x (PbS)x samples with x=10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30% and 35% by means of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and theoretical calculations. Corresponding to the lowest lattice thermal conductivity as a result of the balance between point defect- and precipitates- scattering, the highest figure of merit ZT~2.3 was obtained at 923 K when PbS phase fraction x is at 20%. The consistently lower lattice thermal conductivities in SPSed samples compared with corresponding ingots, resulting from the powdering and follow-up consolidation processes, also contribute to the observed superior ZT. Notably, the onset of carrier concentration modulation ~600 K due to excessive Na’s diffusion and re-dissolution leads to the observed saturations of electrical transport properties, which is believed equally crucial to the outstanding thermoelectric performance of SPSed PbTe-PbS samples.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Water dynamics in hydrated amorphous materials: a molecular dynamics study of the effects of dehydration in amorphous calcium carbonate

Amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) is often a critical transient phase in the formation of crystalline phases of CaCO 3 via dehydration of hydrated ACC. The behavior of the water molecules plays a pivotal role in this transformation. We report here the dynamics of water molecules in ACC at hydration levels from CaCO 3 ·1H 2 O to CaCO 3 ·0.25H 2 O using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Due to the presence of highly hydrophilic Ca 2+ and the strong H-bond acceptor CO 3 2- , most of the water molecules in our simulations have restricted translational and orientational dynamics. These are referred here as ‘slow water’. However, a small fraction of them show high diffusivity at all hydration states and are referred here as ‘fast water’. The computed diffusion coefficients of the slow waters, as extrapolated from simulation results, yield diffusion distances of the order of μm on the 1 hour time scale, consistent with rapid dehydration of ACC nano-particles in the laboratory. We correlate our fast waters with the water molecules in the percolating water-rich, Ca 2+ -deficient nano-pores in the structure of Goodwin et al. [Chem. Mater., 2010, 22, 3197], obtained by analysis of X-ray scattering data, and our slow waters with those in the Ca 2+ -rich volumes with less water in their model. The fast waters can be considered to be free rotors on the ns time scale and have orders of magnitude shorter rotational relaxation times than the slow waters.

Saharay, Moumita↗
DOE OSTI2014

The CO-to-H{sub 2} conversion factor across the Perseus molecular cloud

We derive the CO-to-H{sub 2} conversion factor, X {sub CO} = N(H{sub 2})/I {sub CO}, across the Perseus molecular cloud on sub-parsec scales by combining the dust-based N(H{sub 2}) data with the I {sub CO} data from the COMPLETE Survey. We estimate an average X {sub CO} ∼ 3 × 10{sup 19} cm{sup –2} K{sup –1} km{sup –1} s and find a factor of ∼3 variations in X {sub CO} between the five sub-regions in Perseus. Within the individual regions, X {sub CO} varies by a factor of ∼100, suggesting that X {sub CO} strongly depends on local conditions in the interstellar medium. We find that X {sub CO} sharply decreases at A{sub V} ≲ 3 mag but gradually increases at A{sub V} ≳ 3 mag, with the transition occurring at A{sub V} where I {sub CO} becomes optically thick. We compare the N(H I), N(H{sub 2}), I {sub CO}, and X {sub CO} distributions with two models of the formation of molecular gas, a one-dimensional photodissociation region (PDR) model and a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, tracking both the dynamical and chemical evolution of gas. The PDR model based on the steady state and equilibrium chemistry reproduces our data very well but requires a diffuse halo to match the observed N(H I) and I {sub CO} distributions. The MHD model matches our data reasonably well, suggesting that time-dependent effects on H{sub 2} and CO formation are insignificant for an evolved molecular cloud like Perseus. However, we find interesting discrepancies, including a broader range of N(H I), likely underestimated I {sub CO}, and a large scatter of I {sub CO} at small A{sub V} . These discrepancies most likely result from strong compressions and rarefactions and density fluctuations in the MHD model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗