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DOE OSTI2016

A mobile test facility based on a magnetic cumulative generator to study the stability of the power plants under impact of lightning currents

The report presents the results of the development and field testing of a mobile test facility based on a helical magnetic cumulative generator (MCGTF). The system is designed for full-scale modeling of lightning currents to study the safety of power plants of any type, including nuclear power plants. Advanced technologies of high-energy physics for solving both engineering and applied problems underlie this pilot project. The energy from the magnetic cumulative generator (MCG) is transferred to a high-impedance load with high efficiency of more than 50% using pulse transformer coupling. Modeling of the dynamics of the MEG that operates in a circuit with lumped parameters allows one to apply the law of inductance output during operation of the MCG, thus providing the required front of the current pulse in the load without using any switches. The results of field testing of the MCGTF are presented for both the ground loop and the model load. The ground loop generates a load resistance of 2–4 Ω. In the tests, the ohmic resistance of the model load is 10 Ω. It is shown that the current pulse parameters recorded in the resistive-inductive load are close to the calculated values.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sites

Abstract. Climate resilience is an emerging issue at contaminated sites and hazardous waste sites, since projected climate shifts (e.g., increased/decreased precipitation) and extreme events (e.g., flooding, drought) could affect ongoing remediation or closure strategies. In this study, we develop a reactive transport model (Amanzi) for radionuclides (uranium, tritium, and others) and evaluate how different scenarios under climate change will influence the contaminant plume conditions and groundwater well concentrations. We demonstrate our approach using a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model for the Savannah River Site F-Area, including mineral reaction and sorption processes. Different recharge scenarios are considered by perturbing the infiltration rate from the base case as well as considering cap-failure and climate projection scenarios. We also evaluate the uranium and nitrate concentration ratios between scenarios and the base case to isolate the sorption effects with changing recharge rates. The modeling results indicate that the competing effects of dilution and remobilization significantly influence pH, thus changing the sorption of uranium. At the maximum concentration on the breakthrough curve, higher aqueous uranium concentration implies that sorption is reduced with lower pH due to remobilization. To better evaluate the climate change impacts in the future, we develop the workflow to include the downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate projection data in the reactive transport model and evaluate how residual contamination evolves through 2100 under four climate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The integration of climate modeling data and hydrogeochemistry models enables us to quantify the climate change impacts, assess which impacts need to be planned for, and therefore assist climate resiliency efforts and help guide site management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Numerical Simulation and Validation of Gas and Molten Metal Flows in Close-Coupled Gas Atomization

Molten metal atomization in close-coupled gas atomization dies can operate between two limiting conditions, jetting and filming, together with several complex mechanisms: liquid-gas drafting, downward/upward shearing, melt bouncing, etc. Liquid jet deformation depends on flow and geometric parameters, such as liquid Reynolds, liquid Weber, and gas Mach numbers, as well as gas jet apex angle and melt tube tip extension and aspect ratio, among others. Understanding their effect is of importance for the metal powder making industry. Numerical gas atomization studies can provide approximated flow information and consider a wide range of conditions, beyond experimental reach. Here, 3D high-resolution simulations employing a 5-equation compressible flow model coupled with the volume-of-fluid method are compared with experiments, for liquid Weber number in the range of 1–30 and liquid Reynolds number below 10,000. This validation explores the predicting capabilities of the numerical model.

Hernandez, F.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Multi Resolution In-Situ Testing and Multiscale Simulation for Creep Fatigue Damage Analysis of Alloy 617

This report outlines the research activities that were carried out for the integrated experimental and simulation investigation of creep-fatigue damage mechanism and life prediction of Nickel-based alloy, Inconel 617 at high temperatures (950° and 850°). First, a novel experimental design using a hybrid control technique is proposed. The newly developed experimental technique can generate different combinations of creep and fatigue damage by changing the experimental design parameters. Next, detailed imaging analysis and statistical data analysis are performed to quantify the failure mechanisms of the creep fatigue of alloy 617 at high temperatures. It is observed that the creep damage is directly associated with the internal voids at the grain boundaries and the fatigue damage is directly related to the surface cracking. It is also observed that the classical time fraction approach does not has a good correlation with the experimental observed damage features. An effective time fraction parameter is seen to have an excellent correlation with the material microstructural damage. Thus, a new empirical damage interaction diagram is proposed based on the experimental observations. Following this, a macro level viscoplastic model coupled with damage is developed to simulate the stress/strain response under creep fatigue loadings. A damage rate function based on the hysteresis energy and creep energy is proposed to capture the softening behavior of the material and a good correlation with life prediction and material hysteresis behavior is observed. The simulation work is extended to include the microstructural heterogeneity. A crystal plasticity finite element model considering isothermal and large deformation conditions at the microstructural scale has been developed for fatigue, creep-fatigue as well as creep deformation and rupture at high temperature. The model considers collective dislocation glide and climb of the grains and progressive damage accumulation of the grain boundaries. The glide model incorporates a slip resistance evolution model that characterizes the solute-drag creep effects and can capture well the stress-strain and stress time response of fatigue and creep-fatigue tests at various strain ranges and hold times. In order to accurately capture the creep strains that accumulate particularly at relatively low stress levels, a dislocation climb model has been incorporated into the crystal plasticity modeling framework. The dislocation climb model parameters are calibrated and verified through experimental creep tests performed at 950°. In addition, a cohesive zone model has been fully implemented in the context of the crystal plasticity finite element model to capture the intergranular creep damage. The parameters of the cohesive zone model have been calibrated using available experimental data. The numerical simulations illustrate the capability of the proposed model in capturing damage initiation and growth under creep loads as compared to the experimental observations. The microscale analysis sheds light on the crack initiation sites and propagation patterns within the microstructure. The model is also utilized to investigate the hybrid-controlled creep-fatigue tests and has been found to capture reasonably well the stress-strain response with different hold times and hold stress magnitudes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO 2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

Abstract. The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ 14 C and δ 13 C) in atmospheric CO 2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14 C and 13 C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ 14 C and δ 13 C in atmospheric CO 2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An all optical approach for comprehensive in-operando analysis of radiative and nonradiative recombination processes in GaAs double heterostructures

We demonstrate an all optical approach that can surprisingly offer the possibility of yielding much more information than one would expect, pertinent to the carrier recombination dynamics via both radiative and nonradiative processes when only one dominant deep defect level is present in a semiconductor material. By applying a band-defect state coupling model that explicitly treats the inter-band radiative recombination and Shockley–Read–Hall (SRH) recombination via the deep defect states on an equal footing for any defect center occupation fraction, and analyzing photoluminescence (PL) as a function of excitation density over a wide range of the excitation density (e.g., 5–6 orders in magnitude), in conjunction with Raman measurements of the LO-phonon plasmon (LOPP) coupled mode, nearly all of the key parameters relevant to the recombination processes can be obtained. They include internal quantum efficiency (IQE), minority and majority carrier density, inter-band radiative recombination rate (W r ), minority carrier nonradiative recombination rate (W nr ), defect center occupation fraction (f), defect center density (N t ), and minority and majority carrier capture cross-sections (σ t and σ tM ). While some of this information is thought to be obtainable optically, such as IQE and the W r /W nr ratio, most of the other parameters are generally considered to be attainable only through electrical techniques, such as current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS). Following a procedure developed herein, this approach has been successfully applied to three GaAs double-heterostructures that exhibit two distinctly different nonradiative recombination characteristics. The method greatly enhances the usefulness of the simple PL technique to an unprecedented level, facilitating comprehensive material and device characterization without the need for any device processing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Efficient on-the-fly ab initio semiclassical method for computing time-resolved nonadiabatic electronic spectra with surface hopping or Ehrenfest dynamics

We derive a somewhat crude, yet very efficient semiclassical approximation for computing nonadiabatic spectra. The resulting method, which is a generalization of the multiple-surface dephasing representation, includes quantum effects through interference of mixed quantum-classical trajectories and through quantum treatment of the collective electronic degree of freedom. The method requires very little computational effort beyond the fewest-switches surface hopping or Ehrenfest locally mean-field dynamics and is very easy to implement. The proposed approximation is tested by computing the absorption and time-resolved stimulated emission spectra of pyrazine using the four-dimensional three-surface model which allows for comparison with the numerically exact quantum spectra. As expected, the multiple-surface dephasing representation is not suitable for high-resolution linear spectra, yet it seems to capture all the important features of pump-probe spectra. Finally, the method is combined with on-the-fly ab initio evaluation of the electronic structure (i.e., energies, forces, electric-dipole, and nonadiabatic couplings) in order to compute fully dimensional nonadiabatic spectra of pyrazine without approximations inherent to analytical, including vibronic-coupling models. The Appendix provides derivations of perturbative expressions for linear and pump-probe spectra of arbitrary mixed states and for arbitrary laser pulse shapes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2015

Applying Advanced Ground-Based Remote Sensing in the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to Characterize Regional Proficiencies in Smoke Transport Modeling

This work describes some of the most extensive ground-based observations of the aerosol profile collected in Southeast Asia to date, highlighting the challenges in simulating these observations with a mesoscale perspective. An 84-h WRF Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) mesoscale simulation of smoke particle transport at Kuching, Malaysia, in the southern Maritime Continent of Southeast Asia is evaluated relative to a unique collection of continuous ground-based lidar, sun photometer, and 4-h radiosonde profiling. The period was marked by relatively dry conditions, allowing smoke layers transported to the site unperturbed by wet deposition to be common regionally. The model depiction is reasonable overall. Core thermodynamics, including landsea-breeze structure, are well resolved. Total model smoke extinction and, by proxy, mass concentration are low relative to observation. Smoke emissions source products are likely low because of undersampling of fires in infrared sun-synchronous satellite products, which is exacerbated regionally by endemic low-level cloud cover. Differences are identified between the model mass profile and the lidar profile, particularly during periods of afternoon convective mixing. A static smoke mass injection height parameterized for this study potentially influences this result. The model does not resolve the convective mixing of aerosol particles into the lower free troposphere or the enhancement of near-surface extinction from nighttime cooling and hygroscopic effects.

Aerosols; Air quality; Lidars/Lidar observations; ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Implementing the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) in a general circulation model: Methodologies and results

The Simple Biosphere MOdel (SiB) of Sellers et al., (1986) was designed to simulate the interactions between the Earth's land surface and the atmosphere by treating the vegetation explicitly and relistically, thereby incorporating biophysical controls on the exchanges of radiation, momentum, sensible and latent heat between the two systems. The steps taken to implement SiB in a modified version of the National Meteorological Center's spectral GCM are described. The coupled model (SiB-GCM) was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce summer and winter simulations. The same GCM was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce comparable 'control' summer and winter variations. It was found that SiB-GCM produced a more realistic partitioning of energy at the land surface than Ctl-GCM. Generally, SiB-GCM produced more sensible heat flux and less latent heat flux over vegetated land than did Ctl-GCM and this resulted in the development of a much deeper daytime planetary boundary and reduced precipitation rates over the continents in SiB-GCM. In the summer simulation, the 200 mb jet stream and the wind speed at 850 mb were slightly weakened in the SiB-GCM relative to the Ctl-GCM results and equivalent analyses from observations.

Sato, N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities

The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with other Earth system components. Simulations from Earth system models (ESMs) could provide crucial information for assessing planetary safety, such as critical tipping elements, and be used to inform climate risks for improving climate impact assessments and policy decisions. This paper presents a collaborative effort to identify scientific opportunities in the Land and Land Ice Theme of the CMIP7 Data Request. The proposed opportunities build upon advances in ESMs, including new freshwater system and land ice processes being included in CMIP7, as well as the scientific community's demand for high-frequency and sub-grid-scale land surface outputs. In total, 25 variable groups that contain 716 variables have been identified to be potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology. Key reflections from this data request effort include advocacy for closer engagement between the user community and modeling groups, reduction in the technical barriers to tracking existing parameters and defining new variables, and more streamlined variable management. These will be essential to enhance the usability and reliability of CMIP7 outputs for climate and Earth system research and applications to a broad audience that relies on the CMIP7 endeavor.

Li, Yue [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2014

Laser control of the radiationless decay in pyrazine using the dynamic Stark effect

The laser control of the radiationless decay between the B{sub 3u}(nπ*) and B{sub 2u}(ππ*) states of pyrazine using the dynamic Stark effect has been investigated. A vibronic coupling model Hamiltonian in diabatic representation, including potential energy, transition dipole, and static polarizability surfaces as a function of the four most important vibrational modes of the molecule has been parametrized using multi-reference electronic structure calculations. The interaction of the molecule with a strong non-resonant laser pulse has been analyzed in terms of dressed potential energy surfaces. Because of the large polarizability difference between the vibronically coupled B{sub 3u}(nπ*) and B{sub 2u}(ππ*) states, the Stark effect induced by the non-resonant laser pulse shifts the conical intersection away from the Franck-Condon region. We have shown, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for the molecule interacting with a relatively weak pump pulse driving the electronic excitation from the ground state to the B{sub 2u}(ππ*) state, and a strong non-resonant control pulse, that this control mechanism can be used to trap the wavepacket on the B{sub 2u}(ππ*) potential energy surface for a much longer time than the natural B{sub 2u}(ππ*) lifetime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

NASA NTRS1991

Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

Rampino, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate-driven Chemistry and Aerosol Feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation of Earth system models includes aerosol and chemistry components that interact with each other and with the biosphere. These interactions introduce a complex web of feedbacks that is important to understand and quantify. This paper addresses multiple pathways for aerosol and chemical feedbacks in Earth system models. These focus on changes in natural emissions (dust, sea salt, dimethyl sulfide, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and lightning) and changes in reaction rates for methane and ozone chemistry. The feedback terms are then given by the sensitivity of a pathway to climate change multiplied by the radiative effect of the change. We find that the overall climate feedback through chemistry and aerosols is negative in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth system models due to increased negative forcing from aerosols in a climate with warmer surface temperatures following a quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. This is principally due to increased emissions of sea salt and BVOCs which are sensitive to climate change and cause strong negative radiative forcings. Increased chemical loss of ozone and methane also contributes to a negative feedback. However, overall methane lifetime is expected to increase in a warmer climate due to increased BVOCs. Increased emissions of methane from wetlands would also offset some of the negative feedbacks. The CMIP6 experimental design did not allow the methane lifetime or methane emission changes to affect climate, so we found a robust negative contribution from interactive aerosols and chemistry to climate sensitivity in CMIP6 Earth system models.

Aerosol feedbacks↗