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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Utility of correlation techniques in gravity and magnetic interpretation

Two methods of quantitative combined analysis, internal correspondence and clustering, are presented. Model studies are used to illustrate implementation and interpretation procedures of these methods, particularly internal correspondence. Analysis of the results of applying these methods to data from the midcontinent and a transcontinental profile show they can be useful in identifying crustal provinces, providing information on horizontal and vertical variations of physical properties over province size zones, validating long wave-length anomalies, and isolating geomagnetic field removal problems. Thus, these techniques are useful in considering regional data acquired by satellites.

Chandler, V. W.↗

Maximizing the Scientific Return of the Sentinels Mission Using Global MHD Models

The Sentinels mission promises to provide a unique view of the acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles as well as the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A crucial component in understanding the physics associated with these processes lies in the large-scale structure of the corona and heliosphere, particularly during the eruption and propagation of fast CMEs. In this talk we review the current status of our MHD modeling efforts, focusing on Sentinels-specific science, and project forward to envisage what capabilities we may have developed by the time that the Sentinels launch (2012). In conjunction with Solar Orbiter, the farside and near-Earth Sentinels spacecraft will provide simultaneous photospheric magnetograph measurements at multiple longitudes, which will lead to major improvements in our ability to prescribe accurate, time-dependent global boundary conditions. Data returned from the inner heliospheric Sentinels will be used to validate these results. The model results can be used in a variety of ways to interpret the observations. For example, products from the model, such as the properties of CME-driven shocks and CME-associated reconnection sites can be used to interpret complex energetic particle profiles. Also, by tracing along magnetic field lines, the inferred sites of the energetic particles can be connected directly with the in situ measurements at each spacecraft. Perhaps more so than any previous mission, sophisticated models will be required to unravel the broad and disparate measurements returned by the suite of Sentinels spacecraft.

Riley, P.↗

The IR energy distribution of SS433

The infrared energy distribution of the emission-line object SS 433 in the range 1 to 10 microns is determined. Photometric measurements were made with a 2.2-m telescope using an InSb detector and a 6-arcsec diaphragm for 1.2- to 4.8-micron observations and a gallium-doped germanium bolometer with a 6-arcsec diaphragm for 8- to 13-micron observations. Results indicate the presence of substantial night-to-night flux density and color variations, and a decrease in flux density at wavelengths greater than 5 microns. The energy cut-off is used to estimate a physical size of 1 AU for the emitting region and an electron density of 10 to the 11th/cu cm on the basis of a model of reddened free-free emission from an ionized plasma, with self-absorption of radiation over 5 microns. The greater variability observed at longer wavelengths is also interpreted in terms of this model.

Wynn-Williams, C. G.↗

Siple station experiments on wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere

Natural and controlled whistler-mode signals have been used to study nonlinear mechanisms of wave growth and wave-wave interactions (WWI) in the magnetosphere; three general classes of WWI (triggering, suppression, and entrainment) are identified and interpreted in terms of a model based on cyclotron resonance interaction. This model is also used to estimate the wave field intensity associated with different types of WWI. A new type of triggered emission, the band-limited impulse (BLI) is interpreted in terms of the switching of phase-bunched currents. In addition, an experiment to find a threshold for the excitation of the coherent wave instability is discussed, and observed VLF wave-induced transient bursts of X-rays, light and E-region ionization enhancements are considered with regard to a step function wave interacting with all resonant electrons in a given energy range.

Helliwell, R. A.↗

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with Nustar

Following a serendipitous detection with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), we present a multiepoch spectral and temporal analysis of an extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) located in the outskirts of the Circinus galaxy, hereafter Circinus ULX5, including coordinated XMM-Newton+NuSTAR follow-up observations. The NuSTAR data presented here represent one of the first instances of a ULX reliably detected at hard (E greater than 10 keV) X-rays. CircinusULX5is variable on long time scales by at least a factor of approx. 5 in flux, and was caught in a historically bright state during our 2013 observations (0.3-30.0 keV luminosity of 1.6 × 10(exp 40) erg s(exp−1)). During this epoch, the source displayed a curved 3-10 keV spectrum, broadly similar to other bright ULXs. Although pure thermal models result in a high energy excess in the NuSTAR data, this excess is too weak to be modeled with the disk reflection interpretation previously proposed to explain the 3-10 keV curvature in other ULXs. In addition to flux variability, clear spectral variability is also observed. While in many cases the interpretation of spectral components in ULXs is uncertain, the spectral and temporal properties of all the high quality data sets currently available strongly support a simple disk-corona model reminiscent of that invoked for Galactic binaries, with the accretion disk becoming more prominent as the luminosity increases. However, although the disk temperature and luminosity are well correlated across all time scales currently probed, the observed luminosity follows L alpha T (exp 1.70+/-0.17), flatter than expected for simple blackbody radiation. The spectral variability displayed here is highly reminiscent of that observed from known Galactic black hole binaries (BHBs) at high luminosities. This comparison implies a black hole mass of approx. 90M for Circinus ULX5. However, given the diverse behavior observed from Galactic BHB accretion disks, this mass estimate is still uncertain. Finally, the limits placed on any undetected iron absorption features with the 2013 data set imply that we are not viewing the central regions of Circinus ULX5 through any extreme super-Eddington outflow.

black hole physics↗

Predictive understanding of the surface tension and velocity of sound in ionic liquids using machine learning

Knowledge of the physical properties of ionic liquids (ILs), such as the surface tension and speed of sound, is important for both industrial and research applications. Unfortunately, technical challenges and costs limit exhaustive experimental screening efforts of ILs for these critical properties. Previous work has demonstrated that the use of quantum-mechanics-based thermochemical property prediction tools, such as the conductor-like screening model for real solvents, when combined with machine learning (ML) approaches, may provide an alternative pathway to guide the rapid screening and design of ILs for desired physiochemical properties. However, the question of which machine-learning approaches are most appropriate remains. In the present study, we examine how different ML architectures, ranging from tree-based approaches to feed-forward artificial neural networks, perform in generating nonlinear multivariate quantitative structure–property relationship models for the prediction of the temperature- and pressure-dependent surface tension of and speed of sound in ILs over a wide range of surface tensions (16.9–76.2 mN/m) and speeds of sound (1009.7–1992 m/s). The ML models are further interrogated using the powerful interpretation method, shapley additive explanations. We find that several different ML models provide high accuracy, according to traditional statistical metrics. The decision tree-based approaches appear to be the most accurate and precise, with extreme gradient-boosting trees and gradient-boosting trees being the best performers. However, our results also indicate that the promise of using machine-learning to gain deep insights into the underlying physics driving structure–property relationships in ILs may still be somewhat premature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Search for heavy Majorana or Dirac neutrinos and right-handed $W$ gauge bosons in final states with charged leptons and jets in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for heavy right-handed Majorana or Dirac neutrinos N R and heavy right-handed gauge bosons W R is performed in events with energetic electrons or muons, with the same or opposite electric charge, and energetic jets. The search is carried out separately for topologies of clearly separated final-state products (“resolved” channel) and topologies with boosted final states with hadronic and/or leptonic products partially overlapping and reconstructed as a large-radius jet (“boosted” channel). The events are selected from pp collision data at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 collected by the ATLAS detector at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed. The results are interpreted within the theoretical framework of a left-right symmetric model, and lower limits are set on masses in the heavy right handed W R boson and N R plane. The excluded region extends to about m(W R ) = 6.4 TeV for both Majorana and Dirac N R neutrinos at m(N R ) < 1 TeV. N R with masses of less than 3.5 (3.6) TeV are excluded in the electron (muon) channel at m(W R ) = 4.8 TeV for the Majorana neutrinos, and lim its of m(N R ) up to 3.6 TeV for m(W R ) = 5.2 (5.0) TeV in the electron (muon) channel are set for the Dirac neutrinos. These constitute the most stringent exclusion limits to date for the model considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Potential Formation Damage: An Integrated Reservoir Characterization Study of the Naturally Fractured Carbonate Middle Duperow Formation at the Kevin Dome, Montana

In this study, we integrate geologic and engineering data of a naturally fractured carbonate reservoir at the Kevin Dome, Montana. Well test data are correlated with core description, geochemical and lithology study to determine the flow behavior and communication within the injection test interval and to the surrounding area. Based on a dual-continuum geologic model, numerical brine injection simulations are carried out to validate the interpretation results from our well test analytical models and forecast the probability of CO 2 injection success using current reservoir properties. As a result, our well test analytical models as well as lithology/core description suggest that fluid flow may be mainly restricted to the injection interval and the assumption of radial (horizontal) flow may be appropriate. The well test models also indicate that there is potentially formation damage with a positive skin factor although prior to brine injection well tests, well stimulation through acid treatment was performed. Our numerical simulation results appear to confirm this formation damage by showing additional pressure buildup in the injection data during later test periods. To explain this, acid may have dissolved dolomite then dolomite or calcite may have been formed again further into the matrix/fracture system. Another possible explanation is mechanical clogging of the fractures due to acid dissolving dolomite and dislodging fine grains. Our work also predicts that if no additional well stimulation is performed, the project will have a lower probability of successfully injecting 1 million tons of CO 2 into the Middle Duperow formation over 4 years.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A knowledge base architecture for distributed knowledge agents

A tuple space based object oriented model for knowledge base representation and interpretation is presented. An architecture for managing distributed knowledge agents is then implemented within the model. The general model is based upon a database implementation of a tuple space. Objects are then defined as an additional layer upon the database. The tuple space may or may not be distributed depending upon the database implementation. A language for representing knowledge and inference strategy is defined whose implementation takes advantage of the tuple space. The general model may then be instantiated in many different forms, each of which may be a distinct knowledge agent. Knowledge agents may communicate using tuple space mechanisms as in the LINDA model as well as using more well known message passing mechanisms. An implementation of the model is presented describing strategies used to keep inference tractable without giving up expressivity. An example applied to a power management and distribution network for Space Station Freedom is given.

Riedesel, Joel↗

Asymmetries of solar oscillation line profiles

Asymmetries of the power spectral line profiles of solar global p-modes are detected in full-disk intensity observations of the Ca II K Fraunhofer line. The asymmetry is a strong function of temporal frequency being strongest at the lowest frequencies observed and vanishing near the peak of the power distribution. The variation with spherical harmonic degree is small. The asymmetry is interpreted in terms of a model in which the solar oscillation cavity is compared to a Fabry-Perot interferometer with the source slightly outside the cavity. A phase difference between an outward direct wave and a corresponding inward wave that passes through the cavity gives rise to the asymmetry. The asymmetry is different in velocity and intensity observations. Neglecting the asymmetry when modeling the power spectrum can lead to systematic errors in the measurement of mode frequencies of as much as 10 exp -4 of the mode frequency. The present observations and interpretation locate the source of the oscillations to be approximately 60 km beneath the photosphere, the shallowest position suggested to date.

Duvall, T. L., Jr.↗

Evidence for weather on Neptune. II

Data obtained by Joyce et al., (1977) are interpreted as evidence for the formation of an optically-thin cloud high in the atmosphere of Neptune. About 10 months after the cloud's initial appearance and subsequent partial dissipation, the optical thickness of the cloud, averaged over the planet, had a value for tau in the vicinity of 1. The minimum effective radius indicated for the cloud particles is about 1 micron. The model which leads to this interpretation of the data is explained, and the calculations are presented. Implications of the model and also apparent similarities between Neptune's atmosphere and that of other planets are discussed.

Pilcher, C. B.↗

Modelling the IRAS colors of galaxies

A physical interpretation is proposed for the color-color diagram of galaxies which are powered only by star formation. The colors of each galaxy result from the combination of two components: cirrus-like emission from the neutral disk, and warmer emission from regions directly involved in on-going star formation. This approach to modelling the emission is based on dust properties, but independent evidence for it is found in the relation between the color sequence and the luminosity sequence. Implications of data and interpretations are discussed and possible tests mentioned for the model.

Helou, George↗

Compression mechanisms of ferroelectric PbTiO 3 via high pressure neutron scattering

Switchable atomic displacements generate electric dipole moments in ferroelectric materials utilized in many contemporary devices. Lead titanate, a perovskite oxide with formula PbTiO 3 , has been referred to as a textbook example of a prototype displacive ferroelectric and is a testing platform of widely used models of piezoelectric response of complex solid-solutions. PbTiO 3 has been addressed by experimental and computational studies, often with apparently conflicting conclusions. To date, hydrostatic pressure experiments have been interpreted in terms of a model in which the dipole moments gradually diminish with increasing pressure until a transition to a cubic phase, characterized by a zero average dipole moment, occurs. Additionally, the model unrealistically assumes an even compression of the crystal. Here we show by high-pressure neutron powder diffraction measurements that a fast and slow shrinkage of 12-oxygen cages around Pb and octahedra around Ti, respectively, takes place. A phase diagram consolidating earlier and present results is given.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.

Chao, W. C.↗

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes): A New Ozonesonde Data Set for the Earth Science Community

In the past several years, new tropical tropospheric ozone data products have been developed from TOMS and other satellites. Global chemical-transport models have been developed for interpretation of satellite data and to predict future ozone levels in the troposphere and stratosphere. However, the lack of ozone profile measurements for validation and evaluation of these data sets and models is critical in regions like the tropics. In 1998 NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, in partnership with NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab) and other nations, began a 2-year project to collect weekly ozonesonde measurements at southern hemisphere tropical sites and make the data available to the scientific community at a single electronic location: http://code9lQ.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data services/Shadoz/shadoz hmpq2.htmi A summary of data from the SHADOZ sites will be presented: Ascension Island, Fiji, Tahiti, Galapagos, American Samoa, Natal (Brazil), Reunion Island, Watukosek (Java), Nairobi and Irene, South Africa. SHADOZ is designed to meet other needs: (1) Provide the first climatology of tropical ozone along the equatorial zone for the wave-one pattern in total ozone; (2) Supplement field project observations. (3) Guide algorithm development for future satellite instruments; (4) Train scientists and educators in southern hemisphere tropical locations. From time to time, intensive tropical campaigns are making data available to SHADOZ. Data from the first half of 1999 will include INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment), SOWER (Stratospheric Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region) at Christmas Island (2N, 157W), and a cruise from Norfolk, Virginia to Cape Town and Mauritius on NOAA's RN 'Ronald H Brown.'

Witte, J. C.↗

OVOC (Oxygenated Volatile Organic Chemicals) in the Global Atmosphere: Atmospheric Budgets, Oceanic Concentrations, and Uncertainties

Airborne measurements of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals (OVOC), OH free radicals, and tracers of pollution were performed over the Pacific during Winter/Spring of 2001. Large concentrations of OVOC are present in the global troposphere and are expected to play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Their total abundance (SIGMAOVOC) was nearly twice that of non-methane hydrocarbons (SIGMAC2-C8 NMHC). Throughout the troposphere, the OH reactivity of OVOC is comparable to that of methane and far exceeds that of NHMC. A comparison of these data with western Pacific observations collected some seven years earlier (Feb.-March, 1994) did not reveal significant differences. Analysis of the relative enhancement of selected OVOC with respect to CH3Cl and CO in twelve plumes originating from fires and sampled in the free troposphere (3-11 km) is used to assess their primary and secondary emissions from biomass combustion. The composition of these plumes also indicates a large shift of reactive nitrogen into the PAN reservoir thereby limiting ozone formation. These data are combined with other observations and interpreted with the help of a global 3-D model to assess OVOC global sources and sinks. We further interpret atmospheric observations with the help of an air-sea exchange model io show that oceans can be both net so~rces and sinks. An extremely large oceanic reservoir of OVOC, that exceeds the atmospheric reservoir by more than an order of magnitude, can be inferred to be present. We conclude that OVOC sources are extremely large (150-500 TgC y-1) but remain poorly quantified. In many cases, measured concentrations are uncertain and incompatible with our present knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. Results based on observations from several field studies and critical gaps will be discussed.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗

Cluster perturbation theory. IV. Convergence of cluster perturbation series for energies and molecular properties

The theoretical foundation has been developed for establishing whether cluster perturbation (CP) series for the energy, molecular properties, and excitation energies are convergent or divergent and for using a two-state model to describe the convergence rate and convergence patterns of the higher-order terms in the CP series. To establish whether the perturbation series are convergent or divergent, a fictitious system is introduced, for which the perturbation is multiplied by a complex scaling parameter z . The requirement for convergent perturbation series becomes that the energy or molecular property, including an excitation energy, for the fictitious system is an analytic, algebraic function of z that has no singularities when the norm | z | is smaller than one. Examples of CP series for the energy and molecular properties, including excitation energies, are also presented, and the two-state model is used for the interpretation of the convergence rate and the convergence patterns of the higher-order terms in these series. Finally, the calculations show that the perturbation series effectively become a two-state model at higher orders.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗