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Managing Uncertainty Due to a Fundamental Error Source Arising from Scatterer Distribution Complexity in Radar Remote Sensing of Precipitation

The assumption that cloud and rain drops are spatially distributed according to a Poisson distribution within a scattering volume probed by a radar being used to estimate precipitation has represented bedrock theory in establishing 'rules of the game' for pulse averaging--the process needed to beat down noise to an acceptable level in the measurement of radar reflectivity factor. Based on relatively recent observations of 'realistic' spatial distributions of hydrometeor scatterers in a cloudy atmosphere motivates a renewed examination of the consequences of using a too simplified assumption underlying volume scattering--particularly in regards to the standard pulse averaging rule. Our investigation addresses two extremes, simple to complex, insofar as allowed for complexities in an underlying scatterer distribution. It is demonstrated that as the spatial distribution ranges from Poisson (a narrow distribution) to multi-fractal (much broader distribution), uncertainty in a measurement increases if the rule for pulse averaging goes unchanged from its Poisson distribution reference county. [A bounded cascade is used for the multi-fractal distribution, a regularly observed distribution vis-a-vis cloud liquid water content.] The resultant measurement uncertainty leads to a fundamental source of error in the estimation of rain rate from radar measurements, one that has been disregarded since the early 1950s when radar sets first began to be used for rainfall measuring. It is shown how this source of error can be 'managed'--under the assumption that number of data analysis experiments would be carried out, experiments involving pulse-by-pulse measurements obtained from a radar set modified to output individual pulses of reflectivity factor. For practical applications, a new parameter called normalized k-sample intensity invariance is developed to enable defining the required pulse average count according to a preferred degree of uncertainty.

Smith, Eric A.↗

OrigenArp Primer: How to Perform Isotopic Depletion and Decay Calculations with SCALE/ORIGEN

The SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation) computer software system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is widely used and accepted around the world for nuclear analyses. ORIGEN-ARP is a SCALE isotopic depletion and decay analysis sequence used to perform point-depletion calculations with the well-known ORIGEN-S code using problem-dependent cross sections. Problem-dependent cross-section libraries are generated using the ARP (Automatic Rapid Processing) module using an interpolation algorithm that operates on pre-generated libraries created for a range of fuel properties and operating conditions. Methods are provided in SCALE to generate these libraries using one-, two-, and three-dimensional transport codes. The interpolation of cross sections for uranium-based fuels may be performed for the variables burnup, enrichment, and water density. An option is also available to interpolate cross sections for mixed-oxide (MOX) fuels using the variables burnup, plutonium content, plutonium isotopic vector, and water moderator density. This primer is designed to help a new user understand and use ORIGEN-ARP with the OrigenArp Windows graphical user interface in SCALE. It assumes that the user has a college education in a technical field. There is no assumption of familiarity with nuclear depletion codes in general or with SCALE/ORIGEN-ARP in particular. The primer is based on SCALE 6 but should be applicable to earlier or later versions of SCALE. Information is included to help new users, along with several sample problems that walk the user through the different input forms and menus and illustrate the basic features. References to related documentation are provided. The primer provides a starting point for the nuclear analyst who uses SCALE/ORIGEN-ARP. Complete descriptions are provided in the SCALE documentation. Although the primer is self-contained, it is intended as a companion volume to the SCALE documentation. The SCALE Manual is provided on the SCALE installation DVD.

Bowman, Stephen M↗

Benchmarking viromics: an in silico evaluation of metagenome-enabled estimates of viral community composition and diversity

Background: Viral metagenomics (viromics) is increasingly used to obtain uncultivated viral genomes, evaluate community diversity, and assess ecological hypotheses. While viromic experimental methods are relatively mature and widely accepted by the research community, robust bioinformatics standards remain to be established. Here we used in silico mock viral communities to evaluate the viromic sequence-to-ecological-inference pipeline, including (i) read pre-processing and metagenome assembly, (ii) thresholds applied to estimate viral relative abundances based on read mapping to assembled contigs, and (iii) normalization methods applied to the matrix of viral relative abundances for alpha and beta diversity estimates. Results: Tools specifically designed for metagenomes, specifically metaSPAdes, MEGAHIT, and IDBA-UD, were the most effective at assembling viromes. Read pre-processing, such as partitioning, had virtually no impact on assembly output, but may be useful when hardware is limited. Viral populations with 2–5 × coverage typically assembled well, whereas lesser coverage led to fragmented assembly. Strain heterogeneity within populations hampered assembly, especially when strains were closely related (average nucleotide identity, or ANI ≥97%) and when the most abundant strain represented <50% of the population. Viral community composition assessments based on read recruitment were generally accurate when the following thresholds for detection were applied: (i) ≥10 kb contig lengths to define populations, (ii) coverage defined from reads mapping at ≥90% identity, and (iii) ≥75% of contig length with ≥1 × coverage. Finally, although data are limited to the most abundant viruses in a community, alpha and beta diversity patterns were robustly estimated (±10%) when comparing samples of similar sequencing depth, but more divergent (up to 80%) when sequencing depth was uneven across the dataset. In the latter cases, the use of normalization methods specifically developed for metagenomes provided the best estimates. Conclusions: These simulations provide benchmarks for selecting analysis cut-offs and establish that an optimized sample-to-ecological-inference viromics pipeline is robust for making ecological inferences from natural viral communities. Continued development to better accessing RNA, rare, and/or diverse viral populations and improved reference viral genome availability will alleviate many of viromics remaining limitations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

Fast Decomposition of Three-Component Spectra of Fluorescence Quenching by White and Grey Methods of Data Modeling

‘White’ and ‘grey’ methods of data modeling have been employed to resolve the heterogeneous fluorescence from a fluorophore mixture of 9-cyanoanthracene (CNA), 10-chloro-9-cyanoanthracene (ClCNA) and 9,10-dicyanoanthracene (DCNA) into component individual fluorescence spectra. The three-component spectra of fluorescence quenching in methanol were recorded for increasing amounts of lithium bromide used as a quencher. The associated intensity decay profiles of differentially quenched fluorescence of single components were modeled on the basis of a linear Stern-Volmer plot. These profiles are necessary to initiate the fitting procedure in both ‘white’ and ‘grey’ modeling of the original data matrices. ‘White’ methods of data modeling, called also ‘hard’ methods, are based on chemical/physical laws expressed in terms of some well-known or generally accepted mathematical equations. The parameters of these models are not known and they are estimated by least squares curve fitting. ‘Grey’ approaches to data modeling, also known as hard-soft modeling techniques, make use of both hard-model and soft-model parts. In practice, the difference between ‘white’ and ‘grey’ methods lies in the way in which the ‘crude’ fluorescence intensity decays of the mixture components are estimated. In the former case they are given in a functional form while in the latter as digitized curves which, in general, can only be obtained by using dedicated techniques of factor analysis. In the paper, the initial values of the Stern-Volmer constants of pure components were evaluated by both ‘point-by-point’ and ‘matrix’ versions of the method making use of the concept of wavelength dependent intensity fractions as well as by the rank annihilation factor analysis applied to the data matrices of the difference fluorescence spectra constructed in two ways: from the spectra recorded for a few excitation lines at the same concentration of a fluorescence quencher or classically from a series of the spectra measured for one selected excitation line but for increasing concentration of the quencher. The results of multiple curve resolution obtained by all types of the applied methods have been scrutinized and compared. In addition, the effect of inadequacy of sample preparation and increasing instrumental noise on the shape of the resolved spectral profiles has been studied on several datasets mimicking the measured data matrices. .

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Indicator Devices for Detection of Trace Gaseous Hydrazines

The relatively recent decrease in the acceptable time-weighted-average for hydrazines from 100 parts-per-billion (ppb) to 10 ppb rendered many trace hydrazine detectors either insensitive or inaccurate. Development of a rapid detection method for hydrazines at the new 10-ppb concentration was necessary so that test area personnel could reliably assess airborne hydrazines concentrations of a potentially contaminated area prior to entry. The reduction of Au(III) to Au(0) by hydrazines is a well characterized reaction and application of the corresponding yellow to purple color change was selected as a potentially useful means for detection of trace hydrazines in air. Tests with small quantities of KAuCl4 deposited on a variety of substrates were conducted using verified sources of 1,1-dimethylhydrazine, methylhydrazine, and hydrazine at approximately 10 ppb in air. Substrates tested were glass fiber filter paper, glass beads, anion exchange resin (AuCl4- form), and diatomaceous earth. The most successful of these substrates were glass fiber filter paper and diatomaceous earth. The KAuC14 impregnated glass fiber filter paper appeared to be somewhat light sensitive so further tests were conducted using the diatomaceous earth substrate. KAuCl4 concentration, substrate particle size, and sampler configuration were evaluated. Based on these tests, the device selected for further evaluation was a 5mm OD by 50mm glass tube containing 0.02-0.03g of 45/60 mesh diatomaceous earth coated with 2 percent KAuCl4. When connected to a sampling pump, response of the device to changes in relative humidity, ambient light, and high levels of other fluids, which might also be found in a propellant test area, was evaluated. False positive responses were not detected for exposures to relative humidity changes from 10 to 80 percent, sunlight for greater than 10 minutes, or percent levels of ammonia, isopropyl alcohol, nitrogen dioxide, and hydrogen. In addition, body emissions did not produce a false positive response in view of potential application for use inside protective clothing. The device was shown to reliably detect less than 10 ppb of the hydrazines tested using a 10 to 20L sample followed by a 2 to 5 minute color development time. Some field tests were conducted in parallel with conventional acidic firebrick sorbent tubes. There was generally very good agreement between the devices and firebrick sorbent tubes when greater than 10 ppb of a hydrazine was present.

Dee, Lou A.↗

A High Performance Computational Framework for Dynamic Security Assessment under Uncertainty

Dynamic security assessment (DSA) is a critical function to evaluate power grids’ capability to survive the transition caused by a set of disturbances to an acceptable steady-state condition. Its computational burden is heavy. With the challenges brought by renewable energy and new smart grid technologies, DSA under uncertainty has to be considered to study the impact of forecast errors on DSA simulation, which further increases the computational burden. To address this challenge, this paper presents a high performance computational framework to support DSA simulation user uncertainty. The computational framework aims to provide a seamless workflow that links data from high performance computing, statistical analysis, to visualization so that a problem can be easily expressed in a way compatible with different functions. It also enables software compatibility such that application development can be more efficient. Case study results of the ESCA60 system and a western U.S. size system show the advantages and efficiency of the computational framework.

dynamic security assessment, high performance comp↗

A Multi-institutional Study of Factors Influencing the Use of Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

Purpose: Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases is a relatively well-studied technology with established guidelines regarding patient selection, although its implementation is technically complex. We evaluated the extent to which local availability of SRS affected the treatment of patients with brain metastases. Methods and Materials: We identified 3030 patients who received whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) for brain metastases in 1 of 7 cancer centers in Ontario. Clinical data were abstracted for a random sample of 973 patients. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with the use of SRS as a boost within 4 months following WBRT or at any time following WBRT. Results: Of 898 patients eligible for analysis, SRS was provided to 70 (7.8%) patients at some time during the course of their disease and to 34 (3.8%) patients as a boost following WBRT. In multivariable analyses, factors significantly associated with the use of SRS boost following WBRT were fewer brain metastases (odds ratio [OR] = 6.50), controlled extracranial disease (OR = 3.49), age (OR = 0.97 per year of advancing age), and the presence of an on-site SRS program at the hospital where WBRT was given (OR = 12.34; all P values were <.05). Similarly, availability of on-site SRS was the factor most predictive of the use of SRS at any time following WBRT (OR = 5.98). Among patients with 1-3 brain metastases, good/fair performance status, and no evidence of active extracranial disease, SRS was provided to 40.3% of patients who received WBRT in a hospital that had an on-site SRS program vs 3.0% of patients who received WBRT at a hospital without SRS (P<.01). Conclusions: The availability of on-site SRS is the factor most strongly associated with the provision of this treatment to patients with brain metastases and appears to be more influential than accepted clinical eligibility factors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-E-T-08: A Beam Source Model for Monte Carlo Simulations of a Double-Scattering Proton Beam Delivery System Using Beam Current Modulation

Purpose: To reconstruct phase-space information upstream of patient specific collimators for Monte Carlo simulations using only radiotherapy planning system data. Methods: The proton energies are calculated based on residual ranges, e.g., sum of prescribed ranges in a patient and SSD. The Kapchinskij and Vladimirskij (KV) distribution was applied to sample proton’s x-y positions and momentum direction and the beam shape was assumed to be a circle. Free parameters, e.g., the initial energy spread and the emittance of KV distribution were estimated from the benchmarking with commissioning data in a commercial treatment planning system for an operational proton therapy center. The number of histories, which defines the height of individual pristine Bragg peaks (BP) of Spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP), are weighted based on beam current modulation and a correction factor is applied to take into account the fluence reduction as the residual range decreases due to the rotation of the range modulator wheel. The timedependent behaviors, e.g., the changes of the residual range and histories per a pristine BP, are realized by utilizing TOPAS (Tool for Particle Simulation). Results: Benchmarking simulations for selected SOBPs ranging 7.5 cm to 15.5 cm matched within 2 mm in range and up to 5 mm in SOBP width against measurement data in water phantom. We found this model tends to underestimate entrance dose by about 5 % in comparison to measurement. This was attributed to the situation that the energy distribution used in the model was limited in its granularity at the limit of single energy spectrum for the narrow angle modulator steps used in the proximal pull back region of the SOBPs. Conclusion: Within these limitations the source modeling method proved itself an acceptable alternative of a full treatment head simulation when the machine geometry and materials information are not available.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Novel and Cost Effective Approach to the Decommissioning and Decontamination of Legacy Glove Boxes - Minimizing TRU Waste and Maximizing LLW Waste - 13634

This paper describes the process of decommissioning two gloveboxes at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) that were employed for work with plutonium and other radioactive materials. The decommissioning process involved an initial phase of clearing tools and materials from the glove boxes and disconnecting them from the laboratory infrastructure. The removed materials, assessed as Transuranic (TRU) waste, were packaged into 55 gallon (200 litre) drums and prepared for ultimate disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) at Carlsbad New Mexico. The boxes were then sampled to determine the radioactive contents by means of smears that were counted with alpha and beta detectors to determine the residual surface contamination, especially in terms of alpha particle emitters that are an indicator of TRU activity. Paint chip samples were also collected and sent for laboratory analysis in order to ascertain the radioactive contamination contributing to the TRU activity as a fixed contamination. The investigations predicted that it may be feasible to reduce the residual surface contamination and render the glovebox structure low level waste (LLW) for disposal. In order to reduce the TRU activity a comprehensive decontamination process was initiated using chemical compounds that are particularly effective for lifting and dissolving radionuclides that adhere to the inner surfaces of the gloveboxes. The result of the decontamination process was a reduction in the TRU surface activity on the inner surfaces of the gloveboxes by four orders of magnitude in terms of disintegrations per unit area (DPA). The next phase of the process involved a comprehensive assay of the gloveboxes using a combination of passive neutron and gamma ray scintillation detectors and a shielded and collimated high purity Germanium (HPGe) gamma ray detector. The HPGe detector was used to obtain gamma ray spectra for a variety of measurement positions within the glovebox. The spectra were used to determine the TRU content of the boxes by assessing the activity of Am-241 (59 keV) and Pu-241 (414 keV). Using the data generated it was possible for qualified subject matter experts (SME) to assess that the gloveboxes could be consigned for disposition as LLW and not as TRU. Once this determination was assessed and accepted the gloveboxes were prepared for final disposition to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) - formerly the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This preparation involved fixing any remaining radioactive contamination within the gloveboxes by filling them with a foam compound, prior to transportation. Once the remaining contamination was fixed the gloveboxes were removed from the laboratory and prepared for transported by road to NNSS. This successful glovebox decontamination and decommissioning process illustrates the means by which TRU waste generation has been minimized, LLW generation has been maximized, and risk has been effectively managed. The process minimizes the volume of TRU waste and reduced the decommissioning time with significant cost savings as the result. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of Exposure during Transportation of Waste to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) - 20445

Safety is a priority for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program. This commitment to safety is integrated into requirements and work procedures at DOE sites across the U.S. that generate low-level radioactive waste, mixed low-level radioactive waste, and classified waste that is transported to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) for permanent disposal. Generators of this waste are responsible for ensuring it is packaged and transported in a safe and compliant manner. These generators and their contracted commercial carriers must comply with U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations; the Nevada National Security Site Waste Acceptance Criteria (NNSSWAC); and other applicable federal, state, and local regulations and requirements. This includes packaging and shipping the waste to meet DOT regulatory radiation dose limits to ensure public safety during transportation. NNSS waste generators have a solid safety record for complying with these stringent regulations as demonstrated by the fact that no shipments exceeding DOT dose rate limits were received at the NNSS Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) during FY 2014 through FY 2018. A 2005 study conducted by the Desert Research Institute validated shipments to the NNSS comply with DOT radiation dose limits. In response to recent Nevada stakeholder requests for an updated study, an analysis was conducted to verify and provide evidence that the public continues to be safe from exposure to radioactive waste shipment to the NNSS. Radiation exposure from radioactive waste shipments in transit to the NNSS was evaluated. Three studies were performed: 1. Confirm compliance of waste shipments to the DOT radiation limits using dose rate surveys taken at the generator site and at the disposal site. 2. Estimate the dose to the public from waste shipments using the dosimetry results for disposal site personnel by comparing time of exposure for various individuals/scenarios. 3. Estimate the truck driver dose using the receipt dose rate surveys and time of exposure, and from dosimetry results. Study 1 confirmed compliance with the DOT dose rate limits for a sample of waste shipments (123 of 1,038) received during fiscal year (FY) 2017. Study 2 showed that the average annual radiation equivalent dose for disposal site personnel during FY 2017 was approximately 6.7% [0.415 mSv (41.5 millirem)] of the annual average dose that a person living in the U.S. receives from all sources [6.2 mSv (620 mrem)]. Maximum dose to a member of the public, a person resting/sleeping in an adjacent truck at a rest area to a waste shipment, was 0.0166 mSv (1.66 mrem), which is less than the dose received from a person taking a round trip from the east coast to the west coast of the continental U.S. on an airplane [0.07 mSv (7 mrem) per round trip]. Study 3 showed that the truck driver who made the most shipments of radioactive waste to the NNSS, who drove the most hours (estimated time of exposure 2,520 hours), during FY 2017 had a total dose of 0.15 mSv (15 mrem), which was obtained from their personal dosimeter. The annual dose recorded for disposal site personnel, the dose estimates for the public, and the truck driver dose were all a small percentage of the average radiation dose a person receives from all sources (e.g., background and medical radiation). At these levels, risk should only be described qualitatively. Radiation exposure from radioactive waste shipments to the NNSS were shown to be compliant with the DOT dose rate limits, safe, and very low (i.e., within background levels). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover SHERLOC Instrument Isolation System

The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) successfully landed the Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover at Jezero Crater on the Martian surface. Perseverance’s main mission objective is to cache Martian rock and regolith samples in hermetically sealed tubes to be brought back to Earth by future missions. To achieve this goal the rover is equipped with a 2-meter-long Robotic Arm (RA) which manipulates the Turret to interact with the surface. The Turret is comprised of science instruments and tools that enable surface sampling and science. The backbone of the Turret hardware is the Rotary Percussive Coring Drill. The science instruments, which are directly mounted to the structural housing of this drill, must be able to withstand not only the launch and entry, descent and landing (EDL) loads of the vehicle but also the dynamic percussive environment, induced by the drill throughout surface operations. This paper discusses the technical hardware design, development and testing of a vibration isolation system to protect the Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman and Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals (SHERLOC) Instrument from these dynamic environments. The hardware design aspect of this problem was limited by both size and mass constraints. The Turret is tightly configured and the physical space in which hardware can reside is restricted due to multiple axes of surface interaction points. Another driving requirement is the extreme range of thermal non-operational environment from -135C to +90C. This, in addition to SHERLOC being a heavier instrument than previously integrated on a turret, made the use of isolation systems employed on previous rover missions problematic. The final design incorporates custom wire mesh springs preloaded within titanium hexapod struts equipped with flexure ends. Custom versions of commercially available wire mesh springs were designed and tested. These custom springs differed in dimension, density and stiffness from the off the shelf options. The newly designed springs went through various stages of flight acceptance testing. Detailed physics-based modeling to understand what loads the isolation system would experience was used to define the test conditions for the springs and entire isolation subsystem. The testing program developed around this was extensive to fully characterize the isolation performance over cleanliness levels, temperature and life. Another major aspect of this work was developing a method of replicating the drill’s percussive environment for performance and life testing of Turret mounted hardware. Attaching the instrument to an operating drill for testing was not a viable option. A method of using a Highly Accelerated Life Test (HALT) table was developed and applied across the project as the most representative and tunable option to physically simulate this new environment. This method, along with launch environment random vibration testing, was used to build an entire dynamic qualification and flight hardware test program. The results of the design, modeling, testing and analysis of the SHERLOC Isolation System is described throughout the following paper.

Krafchak, Todd↗

AGR-5/6/7 Fuel Fabrication Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE NE) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program (referred to as AGR Fuel program hereafter) are pursuing qualification of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for use in high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs). The AGR Fuel program was established to provide a fuel qualification data set in support of the licensing and operation of an HTGR. BWX Technologies Nuclear Operations Group (BWXT-NOG) was subcontracted to fabricate the fuel for the AGR program. Several investments and innovations were realized in preparation to fabricate fuel for the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiments that brought fuel fabrication fully out of the laboratory and into engineering-scale operations. These included: • Increased the kernel fabrication line capacity and uniformity • Upgraded ancillary support equipment and processes for the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coating furnace • Demonstrated efficient production of the matrix precursor powder by dry jet milling of co mingled components • Demonstrated an engineering-scale method for quick and efficient overcoating TRISO particles with the matrix precursor • Demonstrated an automated, multi cavity compacting system with a volumetric feed system • Demonstrated a combined-cycle thermal treatment furnace These changes increased production rates of some of these processes by an order of magnitude or more while eliminating the use of flammable solvents, multiple grinding and sorting operations, and the weighing out of individual die charges. Three fuel kernel lots were fabricated for production of the fuel for AGR-5/6/7. The initial lot (J52R-16-39316) was certified to fuel specifications but was not used because the kernels had a high fraction of internal fissures that caused an unacceptable fraction of the kernels to fragment when charged to the coating furnace where the TRISO coating would be deposited. Fragmented kernels increased the dispersed uranium in the particles and produced a worrisome fraction of dimpled particles with an elevated probability of in-pile failure. After some efforts to identify the cause of the fissure formation, two additional lots were produced with much lower fissure fractions, J52R-16-69317 and 69318. The latter kernel lot was a backup to the first and was not needed. Multiple kernel batches were composited to form each of the lots so as to simulate a commercial-scale operation where kernel batches would also be composited. Multiple TRISO coating runs were performed and the product characterized so that several could be composited into a TRISO lot. TRISO lot J52R-16-98005 conformed to all fuel specifications except the mean outer pyrocarbon (OPyC) layer thickness was thinner than specified. Furthermore, it was determined that the TRISO lot had a dispersed uranium fraction (DUF) that might result in the compacts not meeting the DUF specification. A review of the role of the OPyC layer and consequences of the DUF by the Technical Coordination Team and INL concluded that the fuel was acceptable for use in the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. The TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor that had been produced in a jet-milling operation. The overcoating was performed in equipment originally designed to coat pharmaceuticals. The overcoating process performed well; producing highly spherical and uniform overcoats requiring little upgrading and no recycle or rework. TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor to achieve nominal volumetric packing fractions (PFs) of TRISO particles of 25% and 40% for the irradiation experiments. The 40% PF compacts occupy the first and fifth test capsule in the test train while the inner three capsules are loaded with 25% PF compacts. The resinated graphite matrix precursor powder was a derivative of the German A3-27 matrix formulation, which differs from previous AGR irradiation campaigns that used an A3-3 formulation. Jet milling of the matrix powder precursor produced a finer mean graphite particle size than the milling operations used for the A3-3 matrix powder precursor. Changes made in the matrix formula and equipment yielded compacts with significantly higher matrix density than was attained in previous AGR irradiation campaigns. The changes in the matrix formulation and the means of milling the powders also complicated resolution of the three fuel compact defect fractions, DUF, exposed kernel fraction (EKF), and the silicon carbide defect fraction (SDF). Characterization data from BWXT-NOG had some anomalous results, so samples of the fuel compacts and overcoated TRISO particles were also analyzed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to ensure that the defect fractions were accurately characterized.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Influences of Hatchery Supplementation, Spawner Distribution, and Habitat on Genetic Structure of Chinook Salmon in the South Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract We evaluated the genetic influence of hatchery supplementation on distinct naturally spawning populations of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the South Fork Salmon River (SFSR), Idaho. Genetic tissue samples were collected from unmarked natural-origin and McCall Fish Hatchery (MFH)-reared Chinook salmon carcasses, and fish were identified by an adipose fin clip at five main-stem sites located both upstream and downstream of a seasonal exclusionary weir in the upper SFSR. We evaluated allele frequency data across 95 single-nucleotide polymorphism loci to determine the extent of genetic differentiation among collections. Genetic distance analyses and homogeneity tests indicated little subpopulation distinction in the upper SFSR. The weak overall genetic structure (global F ST = 0.010) is likely reflective of a population diversity similar to the historical structure with introgression by MFH stock in the naturally spawning population of the upper SFSR. Further analyses were conducted to evaluate the genetic structure among the upper SFSR and spawning aggregates in two adjacent SFSR tributaries: the Secesh River, which is devoid of any hatchery stocking, and Johnson Creek, where a discrete supplementation program has been implemented using only Johnson Creek fish. Our results indicated variable abundances of SFSR hatchery spawners distributed spatially among the three main watersheds. Gene flow appears to be restricted and genetic differentiation to be relatively large despite substantial hatchery releases in the upper SFSR. Three historical aggregates of Chinook salmon appear to persist in the SFSR metapopulation, where variable hatchery influences are coincident with the distribution of suitable spawning habitat and watershed-specific management objectives. Received January 5, 2011; accepted December 12, 2011

Matala, Andrew P.↗

Development of Integrated Die Casting Process for Large Thin-Wall Magnesium Applications

The purpose of this project was to develop a process and product which would utilize magnesium die casting and result in energy savings when compared to the baseline steel product. The specific product chosen was a side door inner panel for a mid-size car. The scope of the project included: re-design of major structural parts of the door, design and build of the tooling required to make the parts, making of parts, assembly of doors, and testing (both physical and simulation) of doors. Additional work was done on alloy development, vacuum die casting, and overcasting, all in order to improve the performance of the doors and reduce cost. The project achieved the following objectives: 1. Demonstrated ability to design a large thin-wall magnesium die casting. 2. Demonstrated ability to manufacture a large thin-wall magnesium die casting in AM60 alloy. 3. Tested via simulations and/or physical tests the mechanical behavior and corrosion behavior of magnesium die castings and/or lightweight experimental automotive side doors which incorporate a large, thin-wall, powder coated, magnesium die casting. Under some load cases, the results revealed cracking of the casting, which can be addressed with re-design and better material models for CAE analysis. No corrosion of the magnesium panel was observed. 4. Using life cycle analysis models, compared the energy consumption and global warming potential of the lightweight door with those of a conventional steel door, both during manufacture and in service. Compared to a steel door, the lightweight door requires more energy to manufacture but less energy during operation (i.e., fuel consumption when driving vehicle). Similarly, compared to a steel door, the lightweight door has higher global warming potential (GWP) during manufacture, but lower GWP during operation. 5. Compared the conventional magnesium die casting process with the “super-vacuum” die casting process. Results achieved with cast tensile bars suggest some improvement in tensile properties with vacuum casting. Plant trials with large castings revealed cavity fill issues attributed to cooling and partial solidification of metal in the shot sleeve while waiting for vacuum to be established in the die cavity. 6. Developed age-hardenable Mg-based alloys as potential alternatives to the AM60 and AZ91 alloys typically used in automotive applications. Mg-7%Al-based alloys having Sn or Sn+Si additions exhibited significant age hardening, but more work is needed to demonstrate significant improvement in tensile properties. Corrosion behavior of these alloys is between those of AM60 and AZ91 alloys. 7. Evaluated the die casting of magnesium directly onto either steel or aluminum tubes as a potential process to make large lightweight subassemblies. Samples were free of gross defects, but additional work is needed to increase the interfacial shear strength. Overall, the project demonstrated that an automotive door-in-white design incorporating a die cast magnesium inner panel and a stamped aluminum outer panel can achieve approximately 50% mass reduction compared to the stamped steel baseline door-in-white. This leads to reduced energy consumption when driving the vehicle, which should more than offset the increased embedded energy of manufacture associated with the lighter metals. However, additional design work would be needed in order to meet the mechanical performance required of a door. Development of high-strength, high-ductility magnesium alloy castings would help make this technology more attractive for potential use in the side doors on automobiles. Also, increased use of recycled magnesium and aluminum would reduce the embedded energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the manufacture of this type of lightweight door. Commercialization planning of the type of lightweight door technology addressed in this project would be contingent upon the doors meeting all technical performance requirements of the car maker. The specific lightweight door developed in this project didn’t meet some of those requirements, but a preliminary business case study was conducted anyhow. This study considered the ratio of cost increase to mass decrease when the lightweight door is compared to a baseline steel door. The ratio was found to be in an acceptable range for some vehicle programs, especially if the number of such vehicles to be produced is equal to or slightly less than the estimated 250,000-shot life of the die set. This would allow for the investment in the dies to be spread across many parts and thereby help minimize the cost increase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Collaborative Research: Improved Efficiency and Coupling of the Radiation Code in the ACME Earth System Model (Final Report)

The complexity of radiative transfer, its importance to the exchange of energy in the climate system, and its high computational cost establishes importance of an accurate and efficient radiative transfer parameterization for climate simulation. Previous work by the proposing team at AER led to the development of the radiation code, RRTMG, which has been widely accepted by the global modeling community as a fast and accurate advancement over the previous generation of radiation codes. It has been in use in the NCAR CESM for many years, and it has been implemented in the initial version the DOE E3SM model. However, its computational cost remains high relative to other components in part due to its complexity and to its inefficient use of modern optimization strategies, and this project helped address this limitation for the code’s application in E3SM. Under other funding, the Investigators of this project led an effort to develop a high-performance broadband radiation code, called RTE+RRTMGP, which is a completely restructured code that will take advantage of modern computational capabilities to enhance its performance while retaining the strengths and accuracy of the original code. Designed to perform over a range of computer architectures, RTE+RRTMGP makes extensive use of Fortran 2003 features to improve both its efficiency and its use of memory. RTE+RRTMGP is expected to be adopted in the next generation of RTE+RRTMGP. This project allowed for advancements to the code’s computational capabilities and adding new and enhanced features. This included revising RTE+RRTMGP to run on GPU processors, analysis of and improvements to the code’s timing, modifying the gas optics in RRTMGP to increase the code’s accuracy, extensive validation of computed fluxes, heating rates and forcings, generating a cloud optical property and vertical sampling capabilities for RTE+RRTMGP, implementing a fast and accurate longwave scattering capability, and groundwork for the inclusion of a capability to specify solar variability. Many of the accomplishment in this project necessitated significant collaboration with the E3SM development team. The result of this project was optimization of a key physical component (radiative transfer calculations) of E3SM, directly supporting E3SM’s overarching global modeling objectives. More broadly, this project provided overall advancements in the use of radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric modeling and simulation, particularly for climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experimental Investigation of Forced Convection and Natural Circulation Cooling of a VHTR Core under Normal Operation and Accident Scenarios

This NEUP project #15-8205 entitled “Experimental Investigation of Forced Convection and Natural Circulation Cooling of a VHTR Core under Normal Operation and Accident Scenarios”, has investigated important phenomena in the safety of Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs) using the experimental facilities at City College of New York (CCNY) and Kansas State University (KSU), in collaboration with the Idaho State University (ISU) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The main objectives of this project were to investigate the forced convection and bypass flow phenomena, natural circulation flow and heat transfer, and graphite oxidation due to air ingress which could occur in a Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) with a prismatic core. High pressure/high temperature experiments have been conducted to obtain data that could be used for validation of VHTR design and safety analysis codes. The focus of these experiments was on the generation of benchmark data for design and off-design heat transfer for forced and natural circulation in a VHTR core. This work has built on the previous NEUP project #11-3218 which investigated forced convection and flow laminarization phenomena in a prismatic core of a VHTR and natural circulation of a pure gas under Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) and Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) conditions. Under each Task, extensive literature reviews on natural circulation, bypass flow, air ingress and graphite oxidation phenomena were conducted. In Task 1, scaling analyses were conducted by Idaho State University followed by design and construction of experimental facilities needed to conduct both bypass flow and natural circulation experiments at CCNY. Natural circulation experiments were conducted in Task 2 to investigate the air ingress phenomena, and bypass flow phenomena in Task 3, both at CCNY. In Task 4, radiation heat transfer and graphite oxidation tests were performed at Kansas State University. The experimental data were then analyzed to obtain quantitative results on natural circulation of pure gases and gas mixtures under DCC conditions, bypass flow rates, radiation heat transfer and graphite oxidation. In addition, CFD and Direct Numerical Simulations were conducted by INL and CCNY to investigate the flow laminarization phenomenon in strongly heated gas flows. The scaling analyses have shown that the key nondimensional numbers and parameters all have acceptable distortion levels principally because the CCNY facility’s test sections have representative cooling channel dimensions and are using either helium or a scalable gas such as nitrogen at representative state conditions. The natural circulation experiments involving helium and nitrogen gas mixtures at CCNY have elucidated the effect of nitrogen (simulating air) ingress into a lower plenum on the onset of natural circulation, mass flow rates and heat transfer coefficients under different power input levels in the riser section. Also, the transport of nitrogen from the lower plenum to upper plenum due to natural circulation was quantified for the first time. Nusselt number correlations for the heat transfer coefficient under natural circulation as a function of Reynolds and Prandtl numbers was also developed. The experiments at KSU revealed that prior to the onset of natural circulationin a VHTR core. This work has built on the previous NEUP project #11-3218 which investigated forced convection and flow laminarization phenomena in a prismatic core of a VHTR and natural circulation of a pure gas under Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) and Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) conditions. Under each Task, extensive literature reviews on natural circulation, bypass flow, air ingress and graphite oxidation phenomena were conducted. In Task 1, scaling analyses were conducted by Idaho State University followed by design and construction of experimental facilities needed to conduct both bypass flow and natural circulation experiments at CCNY. Natural circulation experiments were conducted in Task 2 to investigate the air ingress phenomena, and bypass flow phenomena in Task 3, both at CCNY. In Task 4, radiation heat transfer and graphite oxidation tests were performed at Kansas State University. The experimental data were then analyzed to obtain quantitative results on natural circulation of pure gases and gas mixtures under DCC conditions, bypass flow rates, radiation heat transfer and graphite oxidation. In addition, CFD and Direct Numerical Simulations were conducted by INL and CCNY to investigate the flow laminarization phenomenon in strongly heated gas flows. The scaling analyses have shown that the key nondimensional numbers and parameters all have acceptable distortion levels principally because the CCNY facility’s test sections have representative cooling channel dimensions and are using either helium or a scalable gas such as nitrogen at representative state conditions.The natural circulation experiments involving helium and nitrogen gas mixtures at CCNY have elucidated the effect of nitrogen (simulating air) ingress into a lower plenum on the onset of natural circulation, mass flow rates and heat transfer coefficients under different power input levels in the riser section. Also, the transport of nitrogen from the lower plenum to upper plenum due to natural circulation was quantified for the first time. Nusselt number correlations for the heat transfer coefficient under natural circulation as a function of Reynolds and Prandtl numbers was also developed. The experiments at KSU revealed that prior to the onset of natural circulation(ONC), molecular diffusion plays a significant role in air-ingress, however, at higher temperatures convection currents may be influencing air ingress and in-turn ONC times. Bypass flow experiments faced difficulties in the measurement of gas velocity in the main channel due to the failure of a high temperature Hot Wire Anemometer probe, so an energy balance method was instead employed to estimate the flow distribution between the main and bypass flow channels. In the graphite oxidation experiments conducted at KSU, oxidation was found to increase the thermal diffusivity of nuclear grade graphite. This change is believed to be driven by oxidation decreasing graphite sample density rather than raising the thermal conductivity. Oxidation was also shown to greatly alter graphite emissivity. If large amounts of impurities have built up within the graphite over time and have significantly increased its effective ash content, then air ingress is likely to severely inhibit the radiative heat transfer abilities of the graphite due to the formation of low emissivity, ash layers on its surface. However, if the purity of the graphite at the time of the air ingress is still close to that of its virgin specifications, the oxidation induced roughening of the graphite’s outer surface would have the effect of slightly raising its emissivity. The flow laminarization phenomenon was investigated by INL by examining the results of Direct Numerical Simulations of previous experiments, and by CCNY conducting its own DNS simulations using DOE’s Nek5000 code

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Investigating the Relationship between Need for Cognition and Skill in Ethical Hackers

As technology gets more complex and increasingly connected, there is an increasing concern with cyber security. There is also a growing demand for cyber security professionals. Unfortunately there currently are not enough skilled professionals to meet that demand. In order to prepare the next generation of cyber security professionals to meet this demand, we need to understand what characteristics make skilled cyber security professionals. For this work, we focus on professionals who take an offensive approach to cyber security, so called ethical hackers. These hackers utilize many of the same skills that the adversaries that we defend against would use, with the goal of identifying vulnerabilities and address them before they are exploited by adversaries. A commonly held belief among ethical hackers is that hackers must possess exceptional curiosity and problem solving skills in order to be successful. Curiosity is has been studied extensively in psychology, but there is no consensus on what it is and how to measure it. Further, many existing inventories for assessing curiosity are targeted at measuring curiosity in children. Although there isn’t an accepted standard to assess curiosity in adults, a related construct, called Need for Cognition (may capture what is meant when people speak of curiosity. The Need for Cognition scale also captures the tendency toward preferring complex problems (which correlates with good problem solving skills), which may provide insight into what make skilled hackers. In addition to the Need for Cognition, we used a structured interview to assess hacker skill. Hackers rated their own skill on a scale from one to ten on a predefined list of hacker skills. They were then asked to rate a peer who they felt was most skilled in each of the skills. They were asked to rate two peers for each skill, one that they worked with directly and one person that was the most skilled in the field (these could be known by reputation only). The hypothesis is that hackers have a higher than average (i.e., compared to non-hackers) Need for cognition and that Need for Cognition will be positively correlated with self-reported and peer reported skill. We interviewed 20 cyber security researchers who specialize in offensive approaches. Based on the responses to the hacker skill inventory, we generated a self-reported skill score for each participant. We also developed a peer-rating for each participant based on the number of times each individual that was interviewed was named as the most skilled in a particular area. The results indicate that the sample of ethical hackers has a high Need for Cognition and that Need for cognition was related to both self-reported skill and peer-reported skill. The results are discussed in the context of training and recruitment of cyber security professionals.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗