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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗

AUTOMATIC MESH ADAPTIVITY FOR CADIS AND FW-CADIS NEUTRONICS MODELING OF DIFFICULT SHIELDING PROBLEMS

The hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques CADIS and FW-CADIS dramatically increase the efficiency of neutronics modeling, but their use in the accurate design analysis of very large and geometrically complex nuclear systems has been restricted by the availability of computing resources for their preliminary deterministic calculations and the large computer memory requirements of their final Monte Carlo calculations. Three automatic mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to reduce the memory requirements of CADIS and FW-CADIS without sacrificing their efficiency improvement. First, a macromaterial approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as much geometric detail as possible without exceeding some maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm decouples the weight window mesh from the mesh of the deterministic calculations to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to calculate the prompt dose rate throughout the entire ITER experimental facility. Compared to a FW-CADIS calculation with the same weight window map memory requirement, using the three algorithms resulted in a 23.3% increase in the regions where the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation and, additionally, increased the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation by a factor of at least 3.4. The three algorithms enabled the accurate performance of this difficult global Monte Carlo calculation, which traditionally needed high performance computing, using a FW-CADIS simulation on a regular computer cluster.

CADIS and FW-CADIS↗

A Comprehensive Validation Approach Using The RAVEN Code

The RAVEN computer code , developed at the Idaho National Laboratory, is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. RAVEN is a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to communicate with any system code. A natural extension of the RAVEN capabilities is the imple- mentation of an integrated validation methodology, involving several different metrics, that represent an evolution of the methods currently used in the field. The state-of-art vali- dation approaches use neither exploration of the input space through sampling strategies, nor a comprehensive variety of metrics needed to interpret the code responses, with respect experimental data. The RAVEN code allows to address both these lacks. In the following sections, the employed methodology, and its application to the newer developed thermal-hydraulic code RELAP-7, is reported.The validation approach has been applied on an integral effect experiment, representing natu- ral circulation, based on the activities performed by EG&G Idaho. Four different experiment configurations have been considered and nodalized.

PRA↗

Application of Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to a Large System Dynamics Model

Variance-based sensitivity methods can provide insights into large computational models. We present a novel application of sensitivity analysis to the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) a large and complex system dynamics model of the developing biofuels industry in the United States. We apply a two-stage sensitivity approach consisting of an initial sensitivity screening, followed by a variance decomposition approach. Identifying key system levers and quantifying their strength is not straightforward in complex system dynamics models that have numerous feedbacks and nonlinear results. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) offers a systematic, global approach to assessing system dynamics models because it addresses nonlinear responses and interactive effects. Especially when a large model's size makes manual exploration of the input space difficult and time-consuming, the approach can help to provide a comprehensive understanding of interactions that drive model behaviors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Contextual Active Online Model Selection with Expert Advice

How can we collect the most useful labels to learn a model selection policy, when presented with arbitrary heterogeneous data streams? In this paper, we formulate this task as a contextual active model selection problem, where at each round the learner receives an unlabeled data point along with a context. The goal is to output the best model for any given context without obtaining an excessive amount of labels. In particular, we focus on the task of selecting pre-trained classifiers, and propose a contextual active model selection algorithm (CAMS), which relies on a novel uncertainty sampling query criterion defined on a given policy class for adaptive model selection. In comparison to prior art, our algorithm does not assume a globally optimal model. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis for the regret and query complexity under both adversarial and stochastic settings. Our experiments on several benchmark classification datasets demonstrate the algorithm’s effectiveness in terms of both regret and query complexity. Notably, to achieve the same accuracy, CAMS incurs less than 10% of the label cost when compared to the best online model selection baselines on CIFAR10.

Liu, Xuefeng↗

Automatic mesh adaptivity for CADIS and FW-CADIS neutronics modeling of difficult shielding problems

The CADIS and FW-CADIS hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques dramatically increase the efficiency of neutronics modeling, but their use in the accurate design analysis of very large and geometrically complex nuclear systems has been limited by the large number of processors and memory requirements for their preliminary deterministic calculations and final Monte Carlo calculation. Three mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to reduce the memory requirements of CADIS and FW-CADIS without sacrificing their efficiency improvement. First, a macro-material approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as much geometric detail as possible without exceeding a specified maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm de-couples the weight window mesh and energy bins from the mesh and energy group structure of the deterministic calculations in order to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to enhance an FW-CADIS calculation of the prompt dose rate throughout the ITER experimental facility. Using these algorithms resulted in a 23.3% increase in the number of mesh tally elements in which the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation and, additionally, increased the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation by a factor of at least 3.4. The three algorithms enabled this difficult calculation to be accurately solved using an FW-CADIS simulation on a regular computer cluster, obviating the need for a world-class super computer. (authors)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Post Irradiation Examination of SiC Tube Subjected to Simultaneous Irradiation and Radial High Heat Flux

Silicon carbide (SiC) based composite is considered among leading candidate materials for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding in light water reactors (LWRs) because of its outstanding irradiation and oxidation resistance, as well as low neutron absorption. Under normal operation conditions, the synergism between neutron irradiation and a high radial heat flux though the cladding thickness is expected to produce significant stress. This stress is attributed to a significant through-thickness temperature gradient and the resulting differential swelling strain due the highly temperature-dependent point-defect swelling of SiC. Although modeling of the in-pile stress state of SiC cladding has been conducted using finite element analysis, the analysis is challenging because of the complex stress state that depends upon swelling, irradiation creep, and thermal conductivity, all of which are both temperature and dose-dependent. These integral models have not yet been verified by experiments. In order to experimentally validate the multi-physics thermo-mechanical models of ATF SiC cladding during operation, SiC tube specimens have been irradiated under a high radial heat flux. This paper reports preliminary results from the post-irradiation examination (PIE) in on-going project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Nuclear Science User Facility program. The objectives of the PIE are (1) determination of the irradiation temperature distribution within the tube specimens, and (2) evaluation of the state and magnitude of the stress within the tube specimens arising from the temperature gradient. This paper mainly presents findings for objective (1)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Many-Body Effects in Aqueous Systems: Synergies Between Interaction Analysis Techniques and Force Field Development

Interaction analysis techniques, including the many-body expansion (MBE), symmetry-adapted perturbation theory, and energy decomposition analysis, allow for an intuitive understanding of complex molecular interactions. We review these methods by first providing a historical context for the study of many-body interactions and discussing how nonadditivities emerge from Hamiltonians containing strictly pairwise-additive interactions. We then elaborate on the synergy between these interaction analysis techniques and the development of advanced force fields aimed at accurately reproducing the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In particular, we focus on ab initio–based force fields that aim to explicitly reproduce many-body terms and are fitted to high-level electronic structure results. These force fields generally incorporate many-body effects through ( a) parameterization of distributed multipoles, ( b) explicit fitting of the MBE, ( c) inclusion of many-atom features in a neural network, and ( d) coarse-graining of many-body terms into an effective two-body term. We also discuss the emerging use of the MBE to improve the accuracy and speed of ab initio molecular dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Complexity and diffusion of magnetic flux surfaces in anisotropic turbulence

The complexity of magnetic flux surfaces is investigated analytically and numerically in static homogeneous magnetic turbulence. Magnetic surfaces are computed to large distances in magnetic fields derived from a reduced magnetohydrodynamic model. The question addressed is whether one can define magnetic surfaces over large distances when turbulence is present. Using a flux surface spectral analysis, we show that magnetic surfaces become complex at small scales, experiencing an exponential thinning that is quantified here. The computation of a flux surface is of either exponential or nondeterministic polynomial complexity, which has the conceptual implication that global identification of magnetic flux surfaces and flux exchange, e.g., in magnetic reconnection, can be intractable in three dimensions. The coarse-grained large-scale magnetic flux experiences diffusive behavior. The link between the diffusion of the coarse-grained flux and field-line random walk is established explicitly through multiple scale analysis. The Kubo number controls both large and small scale limits. These results have consequences for interpreting processes such as magnetic reconnection and field-line diffusion in astrophysical plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Relating Molecular Properties to the Persistence of Marine Dissolved Organic Matter with Liquid Chromatography–Ultrahigh-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) contains a complex mixture of small molecules that eludes rapid biological degradation. Spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of DOM reflect the existence of fractions that are removed from the ocean over different time scales, ranging from seconds to millennia. However, it remains unknown whether the intrinsic chemical properties of these organic components relate to their persistence. Here, we elucidate and compare the molecular compositions of distinct DOM fractions with different lability along a water column in the North Atlantic Gyre. Our analysis utilized ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry at 21 T coupled to liquid chromatography and a novel data pipeline developed in CoreMS that generates molecular formula assignments and metrics of isomeric complexity. Clustering analysis binned 14 857 distinct molecular components into groups that correspond to the depth distribution of semilabile, semirefractory, and refractory fractions of DOM. The more labile fractions were concentrated near the ocean surface and contained more aliphatic, hydrophobic, and reduced molecules than the refractory fraction, which occurred uniformly throughout the water column. These findings suggest that processes that selectively remove hydrophobic compounds, such as aggregation and particle sorption, contribute to variable removal rates of marine DOM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Analysis of 2-D and 3-D MHD Flows Relevant to Fusion Applications

Here, the analysis of many fusion applications such as liquid-metal blankets requires application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods for electrically conductive liquids in geometrically complex regions and in the presence of a strong magnetic field. A current state of the art general purpose CFD code allows modeling of the flow in complex geometric regions, with simultaneous conjugated heat transfer analysis in liquid and surrounding solid parts. Together with a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) capability, the general purpose CFD code will be a valuable tool for the design and optimization of fusion devices. This paper describes an introduction of MHD capability into the general purpose CFD code CFX, part of the ANSYS Workbench. The code was adapted for MHD problems using a magnetic induction approach. CFX allows introduction of user-defined variables using transport or Poisson equations. For MHD adaptation of the code three additional transport equations were introduced for the components of the magnetic field, in addition to the Poisson equation for electric potential. The Lorentz force is included in the momentum transport equation as a source term. Fusion applications usually involve very strong magnetic fields, with values of the Hartmann number of up to tens of thousands. In this situation a system of MHD equations become very rigid with very large source terms and very strong variable gradients. To increase system robustness, special measures were introduced during the iterative convergence process, such as linearization using source coefficient for momentum equations. The MHD implementation in general purpose CFD code was tested against benchmarks, specifically selected for liquid-metal blanket applications. Results of numerical simulations using present implementation closely match analytical solutions for a Hartmann number of up to 1500 for a 2-D laminar flow in the duct of square cross section, with conducting and nonconducting walls. Results for a 3-D test case are also included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantification of Data Needs, Data Collection and

Further to the development of a model analysis framework suitable for calibration and validation of complex multivariate multiphysics models, this report presents an approach to data collection and characterization which can work in parallel with the above-mentioned model analysis framework and support the calibration and validation of the case-study subcooled flow boiling model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning enabled lineshape analysis in optical two-dimensional coherent spectroscopy

Optical two-dimensional (2D) coherent spectroscopy excels in studying coupling and dynamics in complex systems. The dynamical information can be learned from lineshape analysis to extract the corresponding linewidth. However, it is usually challenging to fit a 2D spectrum, especially when the homogeneous and inhomogeneous linewidths are comparable. We implemented a machine learning algorithm to analyze 2D spectra to retrieve homogeneous and inhomogeneous linewidths. The algorithm was trained using simulated 2D spectra with known linewidth values. The trained algorithm can analyze both simulated (not used in training) and experimental spectra to extract the homogeneous and inhomogeneous linewidths. Finally, this approach can be potentially applied to 2D spectra with more sophisticated spectral features.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Two three-dimensional coordination polymers of lead(II) with iminodiacetate and naphthalene-dicarboxylate anions: Synthesis, characterization and luminescence behavior

Two lead(II) compounds [Pb{sub 3}(idiac){sub 3}(phen){sub 2}(H{sub 2}O)]·2(H{sub 2}O) (1) and [Pb(ndc)]{sub n} (2), where H{sub 2}idiac=iminodiacetic acid, phen=1,10-phenanthroline and H{sub 2}ndc=naphthalene-2,6-dicarboxylic acid, have been synthesized and structurally characterized. Single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis showed that compound 1 is a discrete trinuclear complex (of two-fold symmetry) which evolves to a supramolecular 3D network via π–π interactions, while in compound 2 the naphthalene dicarboxylate anion act as a linker to form a three dimensional architecture, where the anion adopts a bis-(bidentate bridging) coordination mode connecting four Pb(II) centers. The photoluminescence property of the two complexes has been studied. - graphical abstract: Two new topologically different 1D coordination polymers formed by Pb{sub 4} clusters have been synthesized and characterized by x-ray analysis. The luminescence and thermal properties have been studied. - Highlights: • 1 is a trinuclear complex of Pb(II) growing to 3D network via weak interactions. • In 1, layers of (4,4) rhomboidal topology are identified. • In 2, the ndc anion adopts interesting bis-(bidentate bridging) coordination. • In 2, network is reinforced by C–H…π-ring interactions between the ndc rings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Towards adaptive, streaming analysis of x-ray tomography data

Temporal and spatial resolution of chemical imaging methodologies such as x-ray tomography are rapidly increasing, leading to more complex experimental procedures and fast growing data volumes. Automated analysis pipelines and big data analytics are becoming essential to effectively evaluate the results of such experiments. Offering those data techniques in an adaptive, streaming environment can further substantially improve the scientific discovery process, by enabling experimental control and steering based on the evaluation of emerging phenomena as they are observed by the experiment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)’ Chemical Imaging Initiative (CII - http://imaging.pnnl.gov/ ) has worked since 2011 towards developing a framework that allows users to rapidly compose and customize high throughput experimental analysis pipelines for multiple instrument types. The framework, named ‘Rapid Experimental Analysis’ (REXAN) Framework [1], is based on the idea of reusable component libraries and utilizes the PNNL developed collaborative data management and analysis environment ‘Velo’, to provide a user friendly analysis and data management environment for experimental facilities. This article will, discuss the capabilities established for X-Ray tomography, discuss lessons learned, and provide an overview of our more recent work in the Analysis in Motion Initiative (AIM - http://aim.pnnl.gov/ ) at PNNL to provide REXAN capabilities in a streaming environment.

analysis framework↗

Structural Analysis of N- and O-glycans Using ZIC-HILIC/Dialysis Coupled to NMR Detection

Protein glycosylation, an important and complex post-translational modification (PTM), is involved in various biological processes including the receptor-ligand and cell-cell interaction, and plays a crucial role in many biological functions. However, little is known about the glycan structures of important biological complex samples, and the conventional glycan enrichment strategy (i.e., size-exclusion column [SEC] separation,) prior to nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) detection is time-consuming and tedious. In this study, we employed SEC, Zwitterionic hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (ZIC-HILIC), and ZIC-HILIC coupled with dialysis strategies to enrich the glycopeptides from the pronase E digests of RNase B, followed by NMR analysis of the glycoconjugate. Our results suggest that the ZIC-HILIC enrichment coupled with dialysis is the most efficient, which was thus applied to the analysis of biological complex sample, the pronase E digest of the secreted proteins from the fungi Aspergillus niger. The NMR spectra revealed that the secreted proteins from A. niger contain both N-linked glycans with a high-mannose core and O-linked glycans bearing mannose and glucose with 1->3 and 1->6 linkages. In all, our study provides compelling evidence that ZIC-HILIC separation coupled to dialysis is superior to the commonly used SEC separation to prepare glycopeptides for the downstream NMR analysis, which could greatly facilitate the future NMR-based glycoproteomics research.

A.niger↗

Resolving metal binding properties within subunits of a multimeric enzyme Mnx by surface induced dissociation and native ion mobility mass spectrometry

Multi-subunit enzymes function as coordinated assemblies. Yet most enzymatic assays measure the summed output of all populations in solution and cannot easily differentiate contributions of individual subunits. Native mass spectrometry detects intact protein complexes in the gas phase. Surface induced dissociation further releases subunits from protein complexes while retaining compact conformations and bound ligands. Combined with ion mobility, the released subunits can then be carefully monitored for more in-depth structural analysis. Mnx is a unique bacterial multicopper oxidase complex that oxidizes Mn(II) to form MnO 2 minerals, and is composed of three subunits: MnxG, a multicopper oxidase containing the active site, and two accessory proteins, MnxE and MnxF which also bind copper ions. Other known multicopper oxidases do not require accessory proteins, therefore the functions of MnxE and MnxF are not well understood. Here, we use native mass spectrometry with surface induced dissociation and ion mobility to characterize the metal binding properties of Mnx with two metals, catalytic Cu(II) and Mn(II) substrate. We demonstrate our assay can detect subtle structural changes within each subunit, which are presumably related to the allosteric mechanism. We also noticed that ionic strength and solution composition can impact metal binding and must be carefully investigated for such experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗