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DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Eco-Driving Control of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Through Signalized Intersections

This article focuses on the speed planning problem for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) communicating to traffic lights. The uncertainty of traffic signal timing for signalized intersections on the road is considered. The eco-driving problem is formulated as a data-driven chance-constrained robust optimization problem. Effective red-light duration (ERD) is defined as a random variable, and describes the feasible passing time through the signalized intersections. Usually, the true probability distribution for ERD is unknown. Consequently, a data-driven approach is adopted to formulate chance constraints based on empirical sample data. This incorporates robustness into the eco-driving control problem with respect to uncertain signal timing. Dynamic programming (DP) is employed to solve the optimization problem. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can generate optimal speed reference trajectories with 40% less vehicle fuel consumption, while maintaining the arrival time at a similar level compared to a modified intelligent driver model (IDM). The proposed control approach significantly improves the controller's robustness in the face of uncertain signal timing, without requiring to know the distribution of the random variable a priori.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Configuring the Orion Guidance, Navigation, and Control Flight Software for Automated Sequencing

The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle is being designed with greater automation capabilities than any other crewed spacecraft in NASA s history. The Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) flight software architecture is designed to provide a flexible and evolvable framework that accommodates increasing levels of automation over time. Within the GN&C flight software, a data-driven approach is used to configure software. This approach allows data reconfiguration and updates to automated sequences without requiring recompilation of the software. Because of the great dependency of the automation and the flight software on the configuration data, the data management is a vital component of the processes for software certification, mission design, and flight operations. To enable the automated sequencing and data configuration of the GN&C subsystem on Orion, a desktop database configuration tool has been developed. The database tool allows the specification of the GN&C activity sequences, the automated transitions in the software, and the corresponding parameter reconfigurations. These aspects of the GN&C automation on Orion are all coordinated via data management, and the database tool provides the ability to test the automation capabilities during the development of the GN&C software. In addition to providing the infrastructure to manage the GN&C automation, the database tool has been designed with capabilities to import and export artifacts for simulation analysis and documentation purposes. Furthermore, the database configuration tool, currently used to manage simulation data, is envisioned to evolve into a mission planning tool for generating and testing GN&C software sequences and configurations. A key enabler of the GN&C automation design, the database tool allows both the creation and maintenance of the data artifacts, as well as serving the critical role of helping to manage, visualize, and understand the data-driven parameters both during software development and throughout the life of the Orion project.

Odegard, Ryan G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Simulation of the Solar Energetic Particle Event on 2020 May 29 Observed by Parker Solar Probe

This paper presents a stochastic three-dimensional focused transport simulation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by a data-driven coronal mass ejection (CME) shock propagating through a data-driven model of coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields. The injection of SEPs at the CME shock is treated using diffusive shock acceleration of post-shock suprathermal solar wind ions. A time-backward stochastic simulation is employed to solve the transport equation to obtain the SEP time–intensity profile at any location, energy, and pitch angle. The model is applied to a SEP event on 2020 May 29, observed by STEREO-A close to ∼1 au and by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) when it was about 0.33 au away from the Sun. The SEP event was associated with a very slow CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 337 km s −1 at a height below 6 RS as reported in the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog. We compute the time profiles of particle flux at PSP and STEREO-A locations, and estimate both the spectral index of the proton energy spectrum for energies between ∼2 and 16 MeV and the equivalent path length of the magnetic field lines experienced by the first arriving SEPs. We find that the simulation results are well correlated with observations. The SEP event could be explained by the acceleration of particles by a weak CME shock in the low solar corona that is not magnetically connected to the observers.

Solar energetic particles↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data for Renewable Energy Planning, Policy, and Investment

Reliable, robust, and validated data are critical for informed planning, policy development, and investment in the clean energy sector. The Renewable Energy (RE) Explorer was developed to support data-driven renewable energy analysis that can inform key renewable energy decisions globally. This document presents the types of geospatial and other data at the core of renewable energy analysis and decision making. Individual data sets used to inform decisions vary in relation to spatial and temporal resolution, quality, and overall usefulness. From Data to Decisions, a complementary geospatial data and analysis decision guide, provides an in-depth view of these and other considerations to enable data-driven planning, policymaking, and investment. Data support a wide variety of renewable energy analyses and decisions, including technical and economic potential assessment, renewable energy zone analysis, grid integration, risk and resiliency identification, electrification, and distributed solar photovoltaic potential. This fact sheet provides information on the types of data that are important for renewable energy decision making using the RE Data Explorer or similar types of geospatial analysis tools.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

A multiscale multi-permeability poroplasticity model linked by recursive homogenizations and deep learning

Many geological materials, such as shale, mudstone, carbonate rock, limestone and rock salt are multi-porosity porous media in which pores of different scales may co-exist in the host matrix. When fractures propagate in these multi-porosity materials, these pores may enlarge and coalesce and therefore change the magnitude and the principal directions of the effective permeability tensors. The pore-fluid inside the cracks and the pores of host matrix may interact and exchange fluid mass, but the difference in hydraulic properties of these pores often means that a single homogenized effective permeability tensor field is insufficient to characterize the evolving hydraulic properties of these materials at smaller time scale. Furthermore, the complexity of the hydro-mechanical coupling process and the induced mechanical and hydraulic anisotropy originated from the micro-fracture and plasticity at grain scale also makes it difficult to propose, implement and validate separated macroscopic constitutive laws for numerical simulations. Here this article presents a hybrid data-driven method designed to capture the multiscale hydro-mechanical coupling effect of porous media with pores of various different sizes. At each scale, data-driven models generated from supervised machine learning are hybridized with classical constitutive laws in a directed graph that represents the numerical models. By using sub-scale simulations to generate database to train material models, an offline homogenization procedure is used to replace the up-scaling procedure to generate cohesive laws for localized physical discontinuities at both grain and specimen scales. Through a proper homogenization procedure that preserves spatial length scales, the proposed method enables field-scale simulations to gather insights from meso-scale and grain-scale micro-structural attributes. This method is proven to be much more computationally efficient than the classical DEM–FEM or FEM2 approach while at the same time more robust and flexible than the classical surrogate modeling approach. Due to the usage of bridging-scale technique, the proposed model may provide multiple opportunities to incorporate different types of simulations and experimental data across different length scales for machine learning. Numerical issues will also be discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural lumped parameter differential equations with application in friction-stir processing

Lumped parameter methods aim to simplify the evolution of spatially-extended or continuous physical systems to that of a “lumped” element representative of the physical scales of the modeled system. For systems where the definition of a lumped element or its associated physics may be unknown, modeling tasks may be restricted to full-fidelity physics simulations. Here, in this work, we consider data-driven modeling tasks with limited point-wise measurements of otherwise continuous systems. We build upon the notion of the Universal Differential Equation (UDE) to construct data-driven models for reducing dynamics to that of a lumped parameter and inferring its properties. The flexibility of UDEs allow for composing various known physical priors suitable for application-specific modeling tasks, including lumped parameter methods. The motivating example for this work is the plunge and dwell stages for friction-stir welding; specifically, (i) mapping power input into the tool to a point-measurement of temperature and (ii) using this learned mapping for process control.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modular machine learning-based elastoplasticity: Generalization in the context of limited data

The development of highly accurate constitutive models for materials that undergo path-dependent processes continues to be a complex challenge in computational solid mechanics. Challenges arise both in considering the appropriate model assumptions and from the viewpoint of data availability, verification, and validation. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been proposed that aim to establish stress-evolution laws that avoid user-chosen functional forms by relying on machine learning representations and algorithms. However, these approaches not only require a significant amount of data but also need data that probes the full stress space with a variety of complex loading paths. Furthermore, they rarely enforce all necessary thermodynamic principles as hard constraints. Hence, they are in particular not suitable for low-data or limited-data regimes, where the first arises from the cost of obtaining the data and the latter from the experimental limitations of obtaining labeled data, which is commonly the case in engineering applications. In this work, we discuss a hybrid framework that can work on a variable amount of data by relying on the modularity of the elastoplasticity formulation where each component of the model can be chosen to be either a classical phenomenological or a data-driven model depending on the amount of available information and the complexity of the response. The method is tested on synthetic uniaxial data coming from simulations as well as cyclic experimental data for structural materials. The discovered material models are found to not only interpolate well but also allow for accurate extrapolation in a thermodynamically consistent manner far outside the domain of the training data. This ability to extrapolate from limited data was the main reason for the early and continued success of phenomenological models and the main shortcoming in machine learning-enabled constitutive modeling approaches. Training aspects and details of the implementation of these models into Finite Element simulations are discussed and analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combustion machine learning: Principles, progress and prospects

Progress in combustion science and engineering has led to the generation of large amounts of data from large-scale simulations, high-resolution experiments, and sensors. This corpus of data offers enormous opportunities for extracting new knowledge and insights—if harnessed effectively. Machine learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated remarkable success in data analytics, thus offering a new paradigm for data-intense analyses and scientific investigations through combustion machine learning (CombML). While data-driven methods are utilized in various combustion areas, recent advances in algorithmic developments, the accessibility of open-source software libraries, the availability of computational resources, and the abundance of data have together rendered ML techniques ubiquitous in scientific analysis and engineering. This article examines ML techniques for applications in combustion science and engineering. Starting with a review of sources of data, data-driven techniques, and concepts, we examine supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised ML methods. Various combustion examples are considered to illustrate and to evaluate these methods. Next, we review past and recent applications of ML approaches to problems in combustion, spanning fundamental combustion investigations, propulsion and energy-conversion systems, and fire and explosion hazards. Challenges unique to CombML are discussed and further opportunities are identified, focusing on interpretability, uncertainty quantification, robustness, consistency, creation and curation of benchmark data, and the augmentation of ML methods with prior combustion-domain knowledge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An out-of-distribution-aware autoencoder model for reduced chemical kinetics

While detailed chemical kinetic models have been successful in representing rates of chemical reactions in continuum scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, applying the models in simulations for engineering device conditions is computationally prohibitive. To reduce the cost, data-driven methods, e.g., autoencoders, have been used to construct reduced chemical kinetic models for CFD simulations. Despite their success, data-driven methods rely heavily on training data sets and can be unreliable when used in out-of-distribution (OOD) regions (i.e., when extrapolating outside of the training set). In this paper, we present an enhanced autoencoder model for combustion chemical kinetics with uncertainty quantification to enable the detection of model usage in OOD regions, and thereby creating an OOD-aware autoencoder model that contributes to more robust CFD simulations of reacting flows.Here, we first demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in OOD detection in two well-known datasets, MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, in comparison with the deep ensemble method, and then present the OOD-aware autoencoder for reduced chemistry model in syngas combustion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weak-form latent space dynamics identification

Recent work in data-driven modeling has demonstrated that a weak formulation of model equations enhances the noise robustness of a wide range of computational methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the power of the weak form to enhance the LaSDI (Latent Space Dynamics Identification) algorithm, a recently developed data-driven reduced order modeling technique. We introduce a weak form-based version WLaSDI (Weak-form Latent Space Dynamics Identification). WLaSDI first compresses data, then projects onto the test functions and learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly enhanced robustness to noise. With WLaSDI, the local latent space is obtained using weak-form equation learning techniques. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form guarantees a robust and precise latent space recovery, hence allowing for a fast, robust, and accurate simulation. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI vs. LaSDI on several common benchmark examples including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in the case of 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with the addition of up to 100% Gaussian white noise, the relative error remains consistently below 6% for WLaSDI, while it can exceed 10,000% for LaSDI. Similarly, for radial advection simulations, the relative errors stay below 15% for WLaSDI, in stark contrast to the potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Moreover, speedups of several orders of magnitude can be obtained with WLaSDI. For example applying WLaSDI to 1D Burgers' yields a 140X speedup compared to the corresponding full order model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grassmannian Shape Representations for Aerodynamic Applications: Preprint

Airfoil shape design is a classical problem in engineering, science, and manufacturing. Our motivation is to combine principled physics-based considerations for the shape design problem with modern computational techniques informed by a data-driven approach. Traditional analyses of airfoil shapes emphasize a flow-based sensitivity to deformations which can be represented generally by affine transformations (rotation, scaling, shearing, shifting). We present a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data, (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes.

blade representation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grassmannian Shape Representations for Aerodynamic Applications

blade representation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerating Discovery via Physics-Driven and Interactive Multifidelity Bayesian Optimization

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and often nondifferentiable parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, processing spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are expensive or time consuming to evaluate a single instance, and hence classical approaches based on exhaustive grid or random search are too data intensive. This resulted in strong interest toward active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO) where the adaptive exploration occurs based on human learning (discovery) objective. However, classical BO is based on a predefined optimization target, and policies balancing exploration and exploitation are purely data driven. In practical settings, the domain expert can pose prior knowledge of the system in the form of partially known physics laws and exploration policies often vary during the experiment. Here, we propose an interactive workflow building on multifidelity BO (MFBO), starting with classical (data-driven) MFBO, then expand to a proposed structured (physics-driven) structured MFBO (sMFBO), and finally extend it to allow human-in-the-loop interactive interactive MFBO (iMFBO) workflows for adaptive and domain expert aligned exploration. These approaches are demonstrated over highly nonsmooth multifidelity simulation data generated from an Ising model, considering spin–spin interaction as parameter space, lattice sizes as fidelity spaces, and the objective as maximizing heat capacity. Detailed analysis and comparison show the impact of physics knowledge injection and real-time human decisions for improved exploration with increased alignment to ground truth. Here, the associated notebooks allow to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Improved frame-based estimation of head motion in PET brain imaging

Purpose: Head motion during PET brain imaging can cause significant degradation of image quality. Several authors have proposed ways to compensate for PET brain motion to restore image quality and improve quantitation. Head restraints can reduce movement but are unreliable; thus the need for alternative strategies such as data-driven motion estimation or external motion tracking. Herein, the authors present a data-driven motion estimation method using a preprocessing technique that allows the usage of very short duration frames, thus reducing the intraframe motion problem commonly observed in the multiple frame acquisition method. Methods: The list mode data for PET acquisition is uniformly divided into 5-s frames and images are reconstructed without attenuation correction. Interframe motion is estimated using a 3D multiresolution registration algorithm and subsequently compensated for. For this study, the authors used 8 PET brain studies that used F-18 FDG as the tracer and contained minor or no initial motion. After reconstruction and prior to motion estimation, known motion was introduced to each frame to simulate head motion during a PET acquisition. To investigate the trade-off in motion estimation and compensation with respect to frames of different length, the authors summed 5-s frames accordingly to produce 10 and 60 s frames. Summed images generated from the motion-compensated reconstructed frames were then compared to the original PET image reconstruction without motion compensation. Results: The authors found that our method is able to compensate for both gradual and step-like motions using frame times as short as 5 s with a spatial accuracy of 0.2 mm on average. Complex volunteer motion involving all six degrees of freedom was estimated with lower accuracy (0.3 mm on average) than the other types investigated. Preprocessing of 5-s images was necessary for successful image registration. Since their method utilizes nonattenuation corrected frames, it is not susceptible to motion introduced between CT and PET acquisitions. Conclusions: The authors have shown that they can estimate motion for frames with time intervals as short as 5 s using nonattenuation corrected reconstructed FDG PET brain images. Intraframe motion in 60-s frames causes degradation of accuracy to about 2 mm based on the motion type.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗