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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Brazil Fire Characterization and Burn Area Estimation Using the Airborne Infrared Disaster Assessment (AIRDAS) System

Remotely sensed estimations of regional and global emissions from biomass combustion have been used to characterize fire behavior, determine fire intensity, and estimate burn area. Highly temporal, low resolution satellite data have been used to calculate estimates of fire numbers and area burned. These estimates of fire activity and burned area have differed dramatically, resulting in a wide range of predictions on the ecological and environmental impacts of fires. As part of the Brazil/United States Fire Initiative, an aircraft campaign was initiated in 1992 and continued in 1994. This multi-aircraft campaign was designed to assist in the characterization of fire activity, document fire intensity and determine area burned over prescribed, agricultural and wildland fires in the savanna and forests of central Brazil. Using a unique, multispectral scanner (AIRDAS), designed specifically for fire characterization, a variety of fires and burned areas were flown with a high spatial and high thermal resolution scanner. The system was used to measure flame front size, rate of spread, ratio of smoldering to flaming fronts and fire intensity. In addition, long transects were flown to determine the size of burned areas within the cerrado and transitional ecosystems. The authors anticipate that the fire activity and burned area estimates reported here will lead to enhanced information for precise regional trace gas prediction.

Brass, J. A.↗

Unsupervised discovery of extreme weather events using universal representations of emergent organization

Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain elusive. Here, we introduce a theoretically grounded framework for describing emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that embody how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones—local causal states—capture organized behaviors in complex spatiotemporal systems. Employing an unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate automatically discovering organized structures in two real-world domain science problems. We show that local causal states identify vortices and track their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional fluid turbulence. We then show how to detect and track familiar extreme weather events—hurricanes and atmospheric rivers—and discover other novel structures associated with precipitation extremes in high-resolution climate data at the grid-cell level.

Rupe, Adam [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

The Lunar Observer Radio Astronomy Experiment (LORAE)

The paper proposes to place a simple low-frequency dipole antenna on board the Lunar Observer (LO) satellite. LO will orbit the moon in the mid-1990's, mapping the surface at high resolution and gathering new geophysical data. In its modest concept, LORAE will collect crucial data on the radio interference environment while on the near-side (to aid in planning future arrays) and will monitor bursts of emission from the sun and the Jovian planets. LORAE will also be capable of lunar occultation studies of greater than 100 of the brightest sources, gathering arcminute resolution data on sizes and measuring source fluxes. A low resolution all-sky map below 10 MHz, when combined with data from the Gamma-Ray Observatory, will uniquely determine the density of Galactic cosmic ray electrons and the strength of the Galaxy's magnetic field. LORAE also will be able to measure the density of the moon's ionosphere.

Burns, Jack O.↗

Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Will the Measurement Robots Take Our Jobs? An Update on the State of Automated M&V for Energy Efficiency Programs

Trustworthy savings calculations are critical to convincing regulators of both the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency program investments and their ability to defer supply-side capital investments. Today’s methods for measurement and verification (M&V) of energy savings constitute a significant portion of the total costs of energy efficiency programs. They also require time-consuming data acquisition. A spectrum of savings calculation approaches is used, with some relying more heavily on measured data and others relying more heavily on estimated, modeled, or stipulated data. The rising availability of “smart” meters and devices that report near-real time data, combined with new analytical approaches to quantifying savings, offers potential to conduct M&V more quickly and at lower cost, with comparable or improved accuracy. Commercial energy management and information systems (EMIS) technologies are beginning to offer M&V capabilities, and program administrators want to understand how they might assist programs in quickly and accurately measuring energy savings. This paper presents the results of recent testing of the ability to use automation to streamline some parts of M&V. Here in this paper, we detail metrics to assess the performance of these new M&V approaches, and a framework to compute the metrics. We also discuss the accuracy, cost, and time trade-offs between more traditional M&V, and these emerging streamlined methods that use high-resolution energy data and automated computational intelligence. Finally we discuss the potential evolution of M&V and early results of pilots currently underway to incorporate M&V automation into ratepayer-funded programs and professional implementation and evaluation practice.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Space-based, High-resolution View of Notable Changes in Urban Nox Pollution Around the World (2005 - 2014)

Nitrogen oxides (NOxNO+NO2) are produced during combustion processes and, thus may serve as a proxy for fossil fuel-based energy usage and committed greenhouse gases and other pollutants. We use high-resolution nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to analyze changes in urban NO2 levels around the world from 2005 to 2014, finding complex heterogeneity in the changes. We discuss several potential factors that seem to determine these NOx changes. First, environmental regulations resulted in large decreases. The only large increases in the United States may be associated with three areas of intensive energy activity. Second, elevated NO2 levels were observed over many Asian, tropical, and subtropical cities that experienced rapid economic growth. Two of the largest increases occurred over recently expanded petrochemical complexes in Jamnagar (India) and Daesan (Korea). Third, pollution transport from China possibly influenced the Republic of Korea and Japan, diminishing the impact of local pollution controls. However, in China, there were large decreases over Beijing, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta, which were likely associated with local emission control efforts. Fourth, civil unrest and its effect on energy usage may have resulted in lower NO2 levels in Libya, Iraq, and Syria. Fifth, spatial heterogeneity within several megacities may reflect mixed efforts to cope with air quality degradation. We also show the potential of high-resolution data for identifying NOx emission sources in regions with a complex mix of sources. Intensive monitoring of the world's tropical subtropical megacities will remain a priority, as their populations and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases are expected to increase significantly.

spatial heterogeneity↗

Soil types and forest canopy structures in southern Missouri: A first look with AIS data

Spectral reflectance properties of deciduous oak-hickory forests covering the eastern half of the Rolla Quadrangle were examined using Thematic Mapper (TM) data acquired in August and December, 1982 and Airborne Imaging Spectrometer (AIS) data acquired in August, 1985. For the TM data distinctly high relative reflectance values (greater than 0.3) in the near infrared (Band 4, 0.73 to 0.94 micrometers) correspond to regions characterized by xeric (dry) forests that overlie soils with low water retention capacities. These soils are derived primarily from rhyolites. More mesic forests characterized by lower TM band 4 relative reflectances are associated with soils of higher retention capacities derived predominately from non-cherty carbonates. The major factors affecting canopy reflectance appear to be the leaf area index (LAI) and leaf optical properties. The Suits canopy reflectance model predicts the relative reflectance values for the xeric canopies. The mesic canopy reflectance is less well matched and incorporation of canopy shadowing caused by the irregular nature of the mesic canopy may be necessary. Preliminary examination of high spectral resolution AIS data acquired in August of 1985 reveals no more information than found in the broad band TM data.

Green, G. M.↗

Registratiom of TM data to digital elevation models

Several problems arise when attempting to register LANDSAT thematic mapper data to U.S. B Geological Survey digital elevation models (DEMs). The TM data are currently available only in a rotated variant of the Space Oblique Mercator (SOM) map projection. Geometric transforms are thus; required to access TM data in the geodetic coordinates used by the DEMs. Due to positional errors in the TM data, these transforms require some sort of external control. The spatial resolution of TM data exceeds that of the most commonly DEM data. Oversampling DEM data to TM resolution introduces systematic noise. Common terrain processing algorithms (e.g., close computation) compound this problem by acting as high-pass filters.

Source record↗

Infrared observations of the quintuplet proper members using SOFIA/FORCAST and GEMINI/TReCS

Since their discovery, the Quintuplet proper members (QPMs) have been somewhat mysterious in nature. Originally dubbed the “cocoon stars” due to their cool featureless spectra, high-resolution near-infrared imaging observations have shown that at least two of the objects exhibit “pinwheel” nebulae consistent with binary systems with a carbon-rich Wolf–Rayet star and O/B companion. In this paper, we present 19.7, 25.2, 31.5, and 37.1 μm observations of the QPMs (with an angular resolution of 3.2″–3.8″) taken with the Faint Object Infrared Camera for the SOFIA Telescope (FORCAST) in conjunction with high-resolution (∼0.1″–0.2″) images at 8.8 and 11.7 μm from the Thermal-Region Camera Spectrograph (TReCS). DUSTY models of the thermal dust emission of two of the four detected QPMs, Q2 and Q3, are fitted by radial density profiles that are consistent with constant mass-loss rates (ρ{sub d}∝r{sup −2}). For the two remaining sources, Q1 and Q9, extended structures (∼1″) are detected around these objects in high-resolution imaging data. Based on the fitted dust masses, Q9 has an unusually large dust reservoir (M{sub d}=1.3{sub −0.4}{sup +0.8}×10{sup −3}M{sub ⊙}) compared to typical dusty Wolf–Rayet stars, which suggests that it may have recently undergone an episode of enhanced mass loss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ambiguity of Quality in Remote Sensing Data

This slide presentation reviews some of the issues in quality of remote sensing data. Data "quality" is used in several different contexts in remote sensing data, with quite different meanings. At the pixel level, quality typically refers to a quality control process exercised by the processing algorithm, not an explicit declaration of accuracy or precision. File level quality is usually a statistical summary of the pixel-level quality but is of doubtful use for scenes covering large areal extents. Quality at the dataset or product level, on the other hand, usually refers to how accurately the dataset is believed to represent the physical quantities it purports to measure. This assessment often bears but an indirect relationship at best to pixel level quality. In addition to ambiguity at different levels of granularity, ambiguity is endemic within levels. Pixel-level quality terms vary widely, as do recommendations for use of these flags. At the dataset/product level, quality for low-resolution gridded products is often extrapolated from validation campaigns using high spatial resolution swath data, a suspect practice at best. Making use of quality at all levels is complicated by the dependence on application needs. We will present examples of the various meanings of quality in remote sensing data and possible ways forward toward a more unified and usable quality framework.

Lynnes, Christopher↗

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗

General Fluid System Simulation Program to Model Secondary Flows in Turbomachinery

The complexity and variety of turbomachinery flow circuits created a need for a general fluid system simulation program for test data anomaly resolution as well as design review. The objective of the paper is to present a computer program that has been developed to support Marshall Space Flight Center's turbomachinery internal flow analysis efforts. The computer program solves for the mass. energy and species conservation equation at each node and flow rate equation at each branch of the network by a novel numerical procedure which is a combination of both Newton-Ralphson and successive substitution method and uses a thermodynamic property program for computing real gas properties. A generalized, robust, modular, and 'user-friendly' computer program has been developed to model internal flow rates, pressures, temperatures, concentrations of gas mixtures and axial thrusts. The program can be used for any network for compressible and incompressible flows, choked flow, change of phase and gaseous mixturecs. The code has been validated by comparing the predictions with Space Shuttle Main Engine test data.

Majumdar, Alok K.↗

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of the tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiements were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiements. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. With few exceptions the error estimated generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter ouput and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimaes. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.

Miller, Robert N.↗

Polarized Kink Waves in Magnetic Elements: Evidence for Chromospheric Helical Waves

In recent years, new high spatial resolution observations of the Sun's atmosphere have revealed the presence of a plethora of small-scale magnetic elements down to the resolution limit of the current cohort of solar telescopes (∼100–120 km on the solar photosphere). These small magnetic field concentrations, due to the granular buffeting, can support and guide several magnetohydrodynamic wave modes that would eventually contribute to the energy budget of the upper layers of the atmosphere. In this work, exploiting the high spatial and temporal resolution chromospheric data acquired with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope, and applying the empirical mode decomposition technique to the tracking of the solar magnetic features, we analyze the perturbations of the horizontal velocity vector of a set of chromospheric magnetic elements. We find observational evidence that suggests a phase relation between the two components of the velocity vector itself, resulting in its helical motion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The second most disastrous windstorm of the nineteenth century in the Czech Lands, 26-27 October 1870

One of the most disastrous windstorms to take place over the Czech Lands occurred on the night of 26/27 October 1870. It is here analysed through the use of documentary data (narrative sources, newspapers, forestry journals, printed documents) and systematic meteorological observations (wind force and direction). Combining this evidence with information derived from an atmospheric reanalysis dataset allows the severity of the windstorm to be attributed to the passage of a cold front, a frontal system associated with a secondary low in a typically storm-prone synoptic environment. Its social impacts were characterised by great material damage, particularly to buildings and other structures, trees and forests. These are recorded not only for 174 places around the countryside and lesser settlements of the Czech Lands, but also for 28 city quarters in Prague, the capital city. The windstorm occurred in the night hours, so only a few people were killed or injured. However, the 1870 windstorm totally devastated many forested areas of the Šumava Mts. in south-west Bohemia. Damage to forests in other parts of the Czech Lands was also severe, but difficult to quantify exactly for lack of high-resolution spatial data. Because this windstorm followed only shortly upon a previous similarly disastrous wind event on 7 December 1868, the enormous quantity of windthrown wood in forests, which simply could not be fast-processed, contributed significantly to a subsequent bark-beetle infestation calamity in the 1870s. In certain forest stands, imprints of these aggregate effects appear to this day. The central-European scale of 1870 windstorm is also well documented by meteorological and documentary data from Germany, Austria and Slovakia.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The CN–CH Positive Correlation in the Globular Cluster NGC 5286

We performed low-resolution spectroscopy of the red giant stars in the Galactic globular cluster (GC) NGC 5286, which is known to show intrinsic heavy element abundance variations. We found that the observed stars in this GC are clearly divided into three subpopulations by CN index (CN-weak, CN-intermediate, and CN-strong). The CN-strong stars are also enhanced in the calcium HK′ (7.4 σ ) and CH (5.1 σ ) indices, while the CN-intermediate stars show no significant difference in the strength of the HK′ index from the CN-weak stars. From the comparison with high-resolution spectroscopic data, we found that the CN- and HK′-strong stars are also enhanced in the abundances of Fe and s -process elements. It appears, therefore, that these stars are later-generation stars affected by some supernova enrichment in addition to the asymptotic giant branch ejecta. In addition, unlike normal GCs, sample stars in NGC 5286 show the CN–CH positive correlation, strengthening our previous suggestion that this positive correlation is only discovered in GCs with heavy element abundance variations, such as M22 and NGC 6273.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale models can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving models through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model). (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, W8F). (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling systems to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei--Kuo↗

Decay of Solar Wind Turbulence behind Interplanetary Shocks

We investigate the decay of magnetic and kinetic energies behind IP shocks with motivation to find a relaxation time when downstream turbulence reaches a usual solar wind value. We start with a case study that introduces computation techniques and quantifies a contribution of kinetic fluctuations to the general energy balance. This part of the study is based on high-time (31 ms) resolution plasma data provided by the Spektr-R spacecraft. On the other hand, a statistical part is based on 92 s Wind plasma and magnetic data and its results confirm theoretically established decay laws for kinetic and magnetic energies. We observe the power-law behavior of the energy decay profiles and we estimated the power-law exponents of both kinetic and magnetic energy decay rates as −1.2. We found that the decay of MHD turbulence does not start immediately after the IP shock ramp and we suggest that the proper decay of turbulence begins when a contribution of the kinetic processes becomes negligible. We support this suggestion with a detailed analysis of the decay of turbulence at the kinetic scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗