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Cascade Error Projection: A Learning Algorithm for Hardware Implementation

In this paper, we workout a detailed mathematical analysis for a new learning algorithm termed Cascade Error Projection (CEP) and a general learning frame work. This frame work can be used to obtain the cascade correlation learning algorithm by choosing a particular set of parameters. Furthermore, CEP learning algorithm is operated only on one layer, whereas the other set of weights can be calculated deterministically. In association with the dynamical stepsize change concept to convert the weight update from infinite space into a finite space, the relation between the current stepsize and the previous energy level is also given and the estimation procedure for optimal stepsize is used for validation of our proposed technique. The weight values of zero are used for starting the learning for every layer, and a single hidden unit is applied instead of using a pool of candidate hidden units similar to cascade correlation scheme. Therefore, simplicity in hardware implementation is also obtained. Furthermore, this analysis allows us to select from other methods (such as the conjugate gradient descent or the Newton's second order) one of which will be a good candidate for the learning technique. The choice of learning technique depends on the constraints of the problem (e.g., speed, performance, and hardware implementation); one technique may be more suitable than others. Moreover, for a discrete weight space, the theoretical analysis presents the capability of learning with limited weight quantization. Finally, 5- to 8-bit parity and chaotic time series prediction problems are investigated; the simulation results demonstrate that 4-bit or more weight quantization is sufficient for learning neural network using CEP. In addition, it is demonstrated that this technique is able to compensate for less bit weight resolution by incorporating additional hidden units. However, generation result may suffer somewhat with lower bit weight quantization.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

L2-Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE)Low Energy Radiation Fluence Model

The L2 Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE) model provides estimates of number flux and fluence for the low energy electron, proton, and alpha particle populations in the near Earth solar wind and the Earth’s distant magnetosheath and magnetotail. The model is an engineering tool for specifying radiation environments over an energy range from a few eV to a few MeV of importance to surface dose and radiation damage to thin space exposed materials and is intended for use in space system design applications. Mission fluences are obtained by simulating a spacecraft flight trajectory through time-dependent bow shock and magnetopause boundaries with dimensions and orientations driven by solar wind parameters. Monte Carlo sampling of flux environments within individual plasma regimes and/or fluence accumulated along a fight trajectory through multiple regimes is used to determine statistical variations (means and extremes) of the differential number flux and fluence environments for each of the three charged particle species. Model output is differential (in energy) number fluence and flux for the three particle species in units of particles/cm2-keV and particles/cm2-sec-keV, respectively. Users can select the energy range of interest but the current version of the code (L2-CPE Version 1.4.2d) is limited to an energy range of 1 eV to 10 MeV. Flux is integrated over angle to give flux and fluence to surfaces in the ±XGSE, ±YGSE, and/or ±ZGSE directions. Figure 1 shows the opening screen from the L2-CPE graphical user interface (GUI) with options for flux, fluence, plotting model output. The flux scene generate is not currently implemented in the GUI.

Joseph I Minow↗

CSP Systems Analysis - Final Project Report

The CSP Systems Analysis project was a three-year effort supporting the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Subprogram within the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of the CSP Systems Analysis project was to provide timely and accurate CSP cost data to the DOE and predict performance and cost for emerging technologies that may impact research directions and industry investment. The project consisted of six, mostly independent tasks. Major accomplishments over the three-year period of performance were as follows. The NREL team maintained current cost estimates for CSP technologies by annual updates to the cost input parameters within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM is a performance and cost simulation software that includes technology models for the primary CSP technologies. During the period from 2016 to 2018, the estimated cost within SAM's default CSP molten-salt power tower technology dropped from 13.0 to 11.1 cent/kWh (real dollars without incentives). Power cycle models for the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycle were developed and made an option within SAM's molten-salt power tower model. These models were subsequently used to evaluate the cost reduction potential of alternative salts. The partial-cooling model was found to provide the greatest cost-reduction potential due to its combination of efficiency and temperature differential across the turbine and thermal energy storage (TES) system. These studies were documented in two journal articles. NREL's optical modeling software SolTrace and SolarPILOT were made more versatile and released as open-source software to the CSP community. These tools help researchers and developers to model and optimize the optical performance of CSP collector systems. The new features were highlighted in a recorded webinar that can be accessed from the NREL SAM website. New models for solar-thermal systems, that is, applications for solar industrial process heat, were developed, validated, and installed within SAM. The analysis includes a 2018 review of linear collectors in the market that are tailored for solar process heat applications. In 2018 the NREL team also developed an annual simulation for a direct steam generation system integrated with a latent-heat TES system. This analysis was submitted for journal publication. The NREL team continued to support the exchange of information and development of CSP guidelines within the international CSP community of SolarPACES. Much of the work under this project was presented at SolarPACES, including the development of a modeling checklist to help CSP stakeholders standardize the models used for estimating CSP performance and cost. The CSP Systems Analysis project also supported DOE requests for tracking and reporting programmatic targets for the CSP Subprogram.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SNC Oxygen Fugacity Recorded in Pyroxenes and its Implications for the Oxidation State of the Martian Interior: An Experimental and Analytical Study

Knowledge of the oxidation state of a magma is critical as it is one of the parameters which controls the nature and composition of the resulting crystals. In terrestrial magmatic systems, oxygen fugacity (fo2) is known to vary by over nine orders of magnitude. With variations of this magnitude, understanding the compositional differences, phase changes, and crystallization sequence variations, caused by the magma fo2, is essential in deciphering the origin of all igneous rocks. Magmatic oxidation state is of great importance in that it reflects the degree of oxidation of the source region and can provide insight into magmatic processes, such as metasomatism, degassing, and assimilation, which may have changed them. Carmichael [1991] argues that most magmas are unlikely to have their redox states altered from those of their source region. This assumption allows for estimation of the oxidation state of planetary interiors. Conversely, it is known that the fo2 of the magma can be affected by other processes, which occur outside of the source region and therefore, the oxidation state may record those too. Processes which could overprint source region fugacities include melt dehydrogenation or other volatile loss, water or melt infiltration, or assimilation of oxidized or reduced wallrock. Understanding which of these processes is responsible for the redox state of a magma can provide crucial information regarding igneous processes and other forces active in the region. The composition of the SNC basalts and their widely varying proposed oxidation states raise some interesting questions. Do the SNC meteorites have an oxidized or reduced signature? What was the oxygen fugacity of the SNC source region at the time of melt generation? Is the fugacity calculated for the various SNC samples the fugacity of the magma source region or was it overprinted by later events? Are there different oxidation states in the Martian interior or a single one? This proposal seeks to address all of these questions.

McCanta, M. C.↗

Interferometric Meteor Head Echo Observations using the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER)

A radar meteor echo is the radar scattering signature from the free-electrons in a plasma trail generated by entry of extraterrestrial particles into the atmosphere. Three categories of scattering mechanisms exist: specular, nonspecular trails, and head-echoes. Generally, there are two types of radars utilized to detect meteors. Traditional VHF meteor radars (often called all-sky1radars) primarily detect the specular reflection of meteor trails traveling perpendicular to the line of sight of the scattering trail, while High Power and Large Aperture (HPLA) radars efficiently detect meteor head-echoes and, in some cases, non-specular trails. The fact that head-echo measurements can be performed only with HPLA radars limits these studies in several ways. HPLA radars are very sensitive instruments constraining the studies to the lower masses, and these observations cannot be performed continuously because they take place at national observatories with limited allocated observing time. These drawbacks can be addressed by developing head echo observing techniques with modified all-sky meteor radars. In addition, the fact that the simultaneous detection of all different scattering mechanisms can be made with the same instrument, rather than requiring assorted different classes of radars, can help clarify observed differences between the different methodologies. In this study, we demonstrate that such concurrent observations are now possible, enabled by the enhanced design of the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER) deployed at the Estacion Astronomica Rio Grande (EARG) in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. The results presented here are derived from observations performed over a period of 12 days in August 2011, and include meteoroid dynamical parameter distributions, radiants and estimated masses. Overall, the SAAMER's head echo detections appear to be produced by larger particles than those which have been studied thus far using this technique.

SPECULAR↗

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Testing modified gravity at cosmological distances with LISA standard sirens

Modifications of General Relativity leave their imprint both on the cosmic expansion history through a non-trivial dark energy equation of state, and on the evolution of cosmological perturbations in the scalar and in the tensor sectors. Specifically, the modification in the tensor sector gives rise to a notion of gravitational-wave (GW) luminosity distance, different from the standard electromagnetic luminosity distance, that can be studied with standard sirens at GW detectors such as LISA or third-generation ground based experiments. Here, we discuss the predictions for modified GW propagation from some of the best studied theories of modified gravity, such as Horndeski or the more general degenerate higher order scalar-tensor (DHOST) theories, non-local infrared modifications of gravity, bigravity theories and the corresponding phenomenon of GW oscillation, as well as theories with extra or varying dimensions. We show that modified GW propagation is a completely generic phenomenon in modified gravity. We then use a simple parametrization of the effect in terms of two parameters (Ξ 0 , n ), that is shown to fit well the results from a large class of models, to study the prospects of observing modified GW propagation using supermassive black hole binaries as standard sirens with LISA. We build mock source catalogs and perform detailed Markov Chain Monte Carlo studies of the likelihood obtained from LISA standard sirens alone, as well as by combining them with CMB, BAO and SNe data to reduce the degeneracies between cosmological parameters. We find that the combination of LISA with the other cosmological datasets allows one to measure the parameter Ξ 0 that characterizes modified GW propagation to the percent level accuracy, sufficient to test several modified gravity theories. LISA standard sirens can also improve constraints on GW oscillations induced by extra field content by about three orders of magnitude relative to the current capability of ground detectors. We also update the forecasts on the accuracy on H 0 and on the dark-energy equation of state using more recent estimates for the LISA sensitivity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ground-Support Algorithms for Simulation, Processing, and Calibration of Barnes Static Earth Sensor Measurements: Applications to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Observatory

New algorithms are described covering the simulation, processing, and calibration of penetration angles of the Barnes static Earth sensor assembly (SESA) as implemented in the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Division ground support system for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory. The new treatment involves a detailed analysis of the measurements by individual quadrants. It is shown that, to a good approximation, individual quadrant misalignments can be treated simply as penetration angle biases. Simple formulas suitable for real-time applications are introduced for computing quadrant-dependent effects. The simulator generates penetration angles by solving a quadratic equation with coefficients uniquely determined by the spacecraft's position and the quadrant's orientation in GeoCentric Inertial (GCI) coordinates. Measurement processing for attitude determination is based on linearized equations obtained by expanding the coefficients of the aforementioned quadratic equation as a Taylor series in both the Earth oblateness coefficient (alpha approx. 1/150) and the angle between the pointing axis and the geodetic nadir vector. A simple formula relating a measured value of the penetration angle to the deviation of the Earth-pointed axis from the geodetic nadir vector is derived. It is shown that even near the very edge of the quadrant's Field Of View (FOV), attitude errors resulting from quadratic effects are a few hundredths of a degree, which is small compared to the attitude determination accuracy requirement (0.18 degree, 3 sigma) of TRMM. Calibration of SESA measurements is complicated by a first-order filtering used in the TRMM onboard algorithm to compute penetration angles from raw voltages. A simple calibration scheme is introduced where these complications are avoided by treating penetration angles as the primary raw measurements, which are adjusted using biases and scale factors. In addition to three misalignment parameters, the calibration state vector contains only two average penetration angle biases (one per each pair of opposite quadrants) since, because of the very narrow sensor FOV (+/- 2.6 degrees), differences between biases of the penetration angles measured by opposite quadrants cannot be distinguished from roll and pitch sensor misalignments. After calibration, the estimated misalignments and average penetration angle biases are converted to the four penetration angle biases and to the yaw misalignment angle. The resultant biases and the estimated scale factors are finally used to update the coefficients necessary for onboard computations of penetration angles from measured voltages.

Natanson, G. A.↗

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

Speleogenesis, geometry, and topology of caves: A quantitative study of 3D karst conduits

Karst systems are hierarchically spatially organized three-dimensional (3D) networks of conduits behaving as drains for groundwater flow. Recently, geostatistical approaches proposed to generate karst networks from data and parameters stemming from analogous observed karst features. Other studies have qualitatively highlighted relationships between speleogenetic processes and cave patterns. However, few studies have been performed to quantitatively define these relationships. This paper reports a quantitative study of cave geometries and topologies that takes the underlying speleogenetic processes into account. In order to study the spatial organization of caves, a 3D numerical database was built from 26 caves, corresponding to 621 km of cumulative cave passages representative of the variety of karst network patterns. The database includes 3D speleological surveys for which the speleogenetic context is known, allowing the polygenic karst networks to be divided into 48 monogenic cave samples and classified into four cave patterns: vadose branchwork (VB), water-table cave (WTC), looping cave (LC), and angular maze (AM). Eight morphometric cave descriptors were calculated, four geometrical parameters (width-height ratio, tortuosity, curvature, and vertical index) and four topological ones (degree of node connectivity, α and γ graph indices, and ramification index) respectively. The results were validated by statistical analyses (Kruskal-Wallis test and PCA). The VB patterns are clearly distinct from AM ones and from a third group including WTC and LC. A quantitative database of cave morphology characteristics is provided, depending on their speleogenetic processes. These characteristics can be used to constrain and/or validate 3D geostatistical simulations. This study shows how important it is to relate the geometry and connectivity of cave networks to recharge and flow processes. Conversely, the approach developed here provides proxies to estimate the evolution of the vadose zone to epiphreatic and phreatic zones in limestones from the quantitative analysis of existing cave patterns.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

Numerical Study of Turbulent Separation Bubbles with Varying Pressure Gradient and Reynolds Number

A family of cases each containing a small separation bubble is treated by direct numerical simulation (DNS), varying two parameters: the severity of the pressure gradients, generated by suction and blowing across the opposite boundary, and the Reynolds number. Each flow contains a well-developed entry region with essentially zero pressure gradient, and all are adjusted to have the same value for the momentum thickness, extrapolated from the entry region to the centre of the separation bubble. Combined with fully defined boundary conditions this will make comparisons with other simulations and turbulence models rigorous; we present results for a set of eight Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes turbulence models. Even though the largest Reynolds number is approximately 5.5 times higher than in a similar DNS study we presented in 1997, the models have difficulties matching the DNS skin friction very closely even in the zero pressure gradient, which complicates their assessment. In the rest of the domain, the separation location per se is not particularly difficult to predict, and the most definite disagreement between DNS and models is near reattachment. Curiously, the better models tend to cluster together in their predictions of pressure and skin friction even when they deviate from the DNS, although their eddy-viscosity levels are widely different in the outer region near the bubble (or they do not rely on an eddy viscosity). Stratford’s square-root law is satisfied by the velocity profiles, both at separation and reattachment. The Reynolds-number range covers a factor of two, with the Reynolds number based on the extrapolated momentum thickness equal to approximately 1500 and 3000. This allows tentative estimates of the improvements that even higher values will bring to the model comparisons. The solutions are used to assess models through pressure, skin friction and other measures; the flow fields are also used to produce effective eddy-viscosity targets for the models, thus guiding turbulence-modelling work in each region of the flow.

Coleman, G. N.↗

Modeling and Analysis Methods for an On-line Enrichment Monitor

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has developed an On-Line Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) as one possible component in a new generation of safeguards measures for uranium enrichment plants. The OLEM measures 235U emissions from the UF6 gas flowing through a unit header pipe using NaI(Tl) spectrometers, and corrects for gas density changes using pressure and temperature sensors in order to determine the enrichment of the gas as a function of time. In parallel with the OLEM instrument development, a Virtual OLEM (VOLEM) software tool has been developed that is capable of producing synthetic gamma-ray, pressure, and temperature data representative of a wide range of enrichment plant operating conditions. VOLEM complements instrument development activities and allows the study of OLEM for scenarios that will be difficult or impossible to evaluate empirically. Uses of VOLEM include: investigation of hardware design options; inter-comparison of candidate gamma-ray spectral analysis and enrichment estimation algorithms; uncertainty budget analysis and performance prediction for typical and atypical operational scenarios; and testing of the OLEM data acquisition, analysis and reporting software. This paper describes the technical foundations of VOLEM and illustrates how it can be used. An overview of the nominal instrument design and deployment scenario for OLEM is provided, with emphasis on the key online-assay measurement challenge: accurately determining the portion of the total 235U signal that comes from a background that includes solid uranium deposits on the piping walls. Monte Carlo modeling tools, data analysis algorithms and uncertainty quantification methods are described. VOLEM is then used to quantitatively explore the uncertainty budgets and predicted instrument performance for a plausible range of typical plant operating parameters, and one set of candidate analysis algorithms. Additionally, a series of VOLEM case studies illustrates how an online enrichment monitor might respond in scenarios expected to be atypical, for example weak pressure transients or significant changes in background levels.

Smith, Leon E.↗

Modeling CMB lensing cross correlations with CLEFT

A new generation of surveys will soon map large fractions of sky to ever greater depths and their science goals can be enhanced by exploiting cross correlations between them. In this paper we study cross correlations between the lensing of the CMB and biased tracers of large-scale structure at high z. We motivate the need for more sophisticated bias models for modeling increasingly biased tracers at these redshifts and propose the use of perturbation theories, specifically Convolution Lagrangian Effective Field Theory (CLEFT). Since such signals reside at large scales and redshifts, they can be well described by perturbative approaches. We compare our model with the current approach of using scale independent bias coupled with fitting functions for non-linear matter power spectra, showing that the latter will not be sufficient for upcoming surveys. Furthermore, we illustrate our ideas by estimating σ 8 from the auto- and cross-spectra of mock surveys, finding that CLEFT returns accurate and unbiased results at high z. We report on uncertainties due to the redshift distribution of the tracers, and several avenues for future development.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Randerson, J. T.↗

Solar Power System Evaluated for the Human Exploration of Mars

The electric power system is a crucial element of any mission for the human exploration of the Martian surface. The bulk of the power generated will be delivered to crew life support systems, extravehicular activity suits, robotic vehicles, and predeployed in situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment. In one mission scenario, before the crew departs for Mars, the ISRU plant operates for 435 days producing liquefied methane and oxygen for ascent-stage propellants and water for crew life support. About 200 days after ISRU production is completed, the crew arrives for a 500-day surface stay. In this scenario, the power system must operate for a total of 1130 days (equivalent to 1100 Martian "sols"), providing 400 MW-hr of energy to the ISRU plant and up to 18 kW of daytime user power. A photovoltaic power-generation system with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage has been under study at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The conceptual power system is dominated by the 4000- m2 class photovoltaic array that is deployed orthogonally as four tent structures, each approximately 5 m on a side and 100-m long. The structures are composed of composite members deployed by an articulating mast, an inflatable boom, or rover vehicles, and are subsequently anchored to the ground. Array panels consist of thin polymer membranes with thin-film solar cells. The array is divided into eight independent electrical sections with solar cell strings operating at 600 V. Energy storage is provided by regenerative fuel cells based on hydrogen-oxygen proton exchange membrane technology. Hydrogen and oxygen reactants are stored in gaseous form at 3000 psi, and the water produced is stored at 14.7 psi. The fuel cell operating temperature is maintained by a 40-m2 deployable pumped-fluid loop radiator that uses water as the working fluid. The power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture features eight independent, regulated 600-Vdc channels. Power management and distribution power cables use various gauges of copper conductors with ethylene tetrafluoroethylene insulation. To assess power system design options and sizing, we developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict detailed power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled the requisite Mars surface environments: solar insolation, Sun angles, dust storms, dust deposition, and thermal and ultraviolet radiation. Using this code, trade studies were performed to assess performance and mass sensitivities to power system design parameters (photovoltaic array geometry and orientation) and mission parameters (landing date and landing site latitude, terrain slope, and dust storm activity). Mission analysis cases were also run. Power results are shown in this graph for an analysis case with a September 1, 2012, landing date; 18.95 North latitude landing site; two seasonal dusts storms; and tent arrays. To meet user load requirements and the ISRU energy requirement, an 8-metric ton (MT) power system and 4000-m2 photovoltaic array area were required for the assumed advanced CuInS2 thin-film solar cell technology. In this figure, the top curve is the average daytime photovoltaic array power, the middle curve is average daytime user load power, and the bottom curve is nighttime power. At mission day 1, daytime user power exceeds 120 kW before falling off to 80 kW at the end of the mission. Throughout the mission, nighttime user power is set to the nighttime power requirement. In this analysis, "nighttime" is defined as the 13- to 15-hr period when array power output is below the daytime power requirement. During dust storms, power system capability falls off dramatically so that by mission day 900, a daily energy balance cannot be maintained. Under these conditions, the ISRU plant is placed in standby mode, and the regenerative fuel cell energy storage is gradually discharged to meet user loads.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Evaluation of the Effect of Surface Finish on High-Cycle Fatigue of SLM-IN718

The surface finish of parts produced by additive manufacturing processes is much rougher than the surface finish generated by machining processes, and a rougher surface can reduce the fatigue strength of a part. This paper discusses an effort to quantify that reduction of strength in high-cycle fatigue for selective laser melt (SLM) coupons. A high-cycle fatigue (HCF) knockdown factor was estimated for Inconel 718, manufactured with the SLM process. This factor is the percentage reduction from the maximum stress in fatigue for low-stress ground (LSG) specimens to the maximum stress of those left with the original surface condition at the same fatigue life. Specimens were provided by a number of vendors, free to use their "best practice"; only one heat treat condition was considered; and several test temperatures were characterized, including room temperature, 800F, 1000F, and 1200F. The 1000F data had a large variance, and was omitted from consideration in this document. A first method used linear approximations extracted from the graphs, and only where data was available for both. A recommended knockdown factor of the as-built surface condition (average roughness of approximately 245 micro-inches/inch) versus low-stress ground condition (roughness no more than 4 micro-inches/inch) was established at approximately 1/3 or 33%. This is to say that for the as-built surface condition, a maximum stress of 2/3 of the stress for LSG can be expected to produce a similar life in the as-built surface condition. In this first evaluation, the knockdown factor did not appear to be a function of temperature. A second approach, the "KP method", incorporated the surface finish measure into a new parameter termed the pseudo-stress intensity factor, Kp, which was formulated to be similar to the fracture mechanics stress intensity factor. Using Kp, the variance seemed to be reduced across all sources, and knockdown factors were estimated using Kp over the range where data occurred. A plot of the results suggests that the knockdown factor is a function of temperature, and that for low lives the knockdown might be lower than the knockdown observed above about one million cycles, where it tended to stabilize. This was not universal for all temperatures tested. The higher temperature tests are thought to be influenced by the test temperature, which perhaps continued the aging process. Further evaluation of the method is suggested.

Lambert, D. M.↗

Institutional Transformation Version 2.5 Modeling and Planning.

Reducing the resource consumption and emissions of large institutions is an important step toward a sustainable future. Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) Institutional Transformation (IX) project vision is to provide tools that enable planners to make well-informed decisions concerning sustainability, resource conservation, and emissions reduction across multiple sectors. The building sector has been the primary focus so far because it is the largest consumer of resources for SNL. The IX building module allows users to define the evolution of many buildings over time. The module has been created so that it can be generally applied to any set of DOE-2 ( http://doe2.com ) building models that have been altered to include parameters and expressions required by energy conservation measures (ECM). Once building models have been appropriately prepared, they are checked into a Microsoft Access (r) database. Each building can be represented by many models. This enables the capability to keep a continuous record of models in the past, which are replaced with different models as changes occur to the building. In addition to this, the building module has the capability to apply climate scenarios through applying different weather files to each simulation year. Once the database has been configured, a user interface in Microsoft Excel (r) is used to create scenarios with one or more ECMs. The capability to include central utility buildings (CUBs) that service more than one building with chilled water has been developed. A utility has been created that joins multiple building models into a single model. After using the utility, several manual steps are required to complete the process. Once this CUB model has been created, the individual contributions of each building are still tracked through meters. Currently, 120 building models from SNL's New Mexico and California campuses have been created. This includes all buildings at SNL greater than 10,000 sq. ft., representing 80% of the energy consumption at SNL. SNL has been able to leverage this model to estimate energy savings potential of many competing ECMs. The results helped high level decision makers to create energy reduction goals for SNL. These resources also have multiple applications for use of the models as individual buildings. In addition to the building module, a solar module built in Powersim Studio (r) allows planners to evaluate the potential photovoltaic (PV) energy generation potential for flat plate PV, concentrating solar PV, and concentration solar thermal technologies at multiple sites across SNL's New Mexico campus. Development of the IX modeling framework was a unique collaborative effort among planners and engineers in SNL's facilities division; scientists and computer modelers in SNL's research and development division; faculty from Arizona State University; and energy modelers from Bridger and Paxton Consulting Engineers Incorporated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗