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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

An Improved Zhang's Dynamic Water Balance Model Using Budyko-Based Snow Representation for Better Streamflow Predictions

Understanding the water balance of a catchment in relation to its regional climate forcings and catchment characteristics is critical for predicting current and future water resources amid changing climate and land cover. This study intends to improve Zhang's monthly water balance model (a physics-based conceptual hydrologic model) that reflects the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle at the basin level based on regional climate and catchment characteristics. The existing model does not include snow process and has confronted evident limitations in snow-affected areas, which is a critical aspect since snowmelt water has been a significant source of water resources for many regions, especially in the temperate and frigid zones. We introduce a snow module based on surface energy balance and Budyko-limits on melting and combine it with the existing water balance equations. Moreover, monthly parameterization is applied to the model to better explain the time-varying hydrological characteristics of a catchment. The proposed model involves five different monthly parameters, which determine the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle, and they are regionally calibrated and validated under Budyko-type constraints. The model is applied to 1,210 basins across the continental United States (CONUS), and the simulated streamflow is compared to the observed data. The proposed model significantly outperformed the original model, improving the median NSE by 31% (from 0.51 to 0.67) and increasing the number of catchments with an acceptable NSE by 58%. The spatial variability of the basin characteristics across the CONUS is also investigated based on the calibrated parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Volume of Distribution in Humans: Performance of In Silico Methods for a Large Set of Structurally Diverse Clinical Compounds

Volume of distribution at steady state (V D,ss ) is one of the key pharmacokinetic parameters estimated during the drug discovery process. Despite considerable efforts to predict V D,ss , accuracy and choice of prediction methods remain a challenge, with evaluations constrained to a small set (<150) of compounds. To address these issues, a series of in silico methods for predicting human V D,ss directly from structure were evaluated using a large set of clinical compounds. Machine learning (ML) models were built to predict V D,ss directly and to predict input parameters required for mechanistic and empirical V D,ss predictions. In addition, log D, fraction unbound in plasma (fup), and blood-to-plasma partition ratio (BPR) were measured on 254 compounds to estimate the impact of measured data on predictive performance of mechanistic models. Furthermore, the impact of novel methodologies such as measuring partition (Kp) in adipocytes and myocytes (n = 189) on V D,ss predictions was also investigated. In predicting V D,ss directly from chemical structures, both mechanistic and empirical scaling using a combination of predicted rat and dog V D,ss demonstrated comparable performance (62%–71% within 3-fold). The direct ML model outperformed other in silico methods (75% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.5, AAFE = 2.2) when built from a larger data set. Scaling to human from predicted V D,ss of either rat or dog yielded poor results (<47% within 3-fold). Measured fup and BPR improved performance of mechanistic V D,ss predictions significantly (81% within 3-fold, r 2 = 0.6, AAFE = 2.0). Adipocyte intracellular Kp showed good correlation to the V D,ss but was limited in estimating the compounds with low V D,ss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Behind-the-meter resource management system

A method and a system for managing power resources. One or more measurements received from one or more sensors communicatively coupled to at least one processor are processed. The sensors monitor and measure at least one of: one or more operational parameters associated with operation of at least one equipment, one or more external parameters associated with an environment of the equipment, and one or more power parameters associated with a power consumption by the equipment. Based on the processed one or more measurements, one or more future operational parameters associated with an operation of the are determined. The operation of the equipment is controlled using the determined future operational parameters.

Rajagopal, Ram↗

Gibbs Energy Minimization Model for Solvent Extraction with Application to Rare-Earths Recovery

The emergence of technologies in which rare-earth elements provide critical functionality has increased the demand for these materials, with important implications for supply security. Recycling provides an option for mitigating supply risk and for creating economic value from the resale of recovered materials. While solvent extraction is a proven technology for rare-earth recovery and separation, its application often requires extensive trial-and-error experimentation to estimate parameter values and determine experimental design configurations. We describe a modeling strategy based on Gibbs energy minimization that incorporates parameter estimation for required thermodynamic properties as well as process design for solvent extraction and illustrate its applicability to rare earths separation. Visualization analysis during parameter estimation revealed a linear relationship between the standard enthalpies of the extractant and respective organo-metal complexes, analogous to the additivity principle for predicting molar volumes of organic compounds. Establishing this relationship reduced the size of the parameter estimation problem and yielded good agreement between model predictions and reported equilibrium extraction data, validating the property estimates for the organic phase species. Design exploration and optimization results map the space of feasible solvent extraction column configurations and identify the set of optimal design parameter values that meet recovery and purity targets.

Critical materials↗

Improving fatigue performance of additively manufactured Ti-6Al-4V using sulfur-based self-terminating etching processes

The adoption of Additively Manufactured (AM) Ti-6Al-4V (Ti64) is continually increasing in the industry due to its benefits over the conventional manufacturing techniques. However, AM Ti64 parts are prone to poor surface finish, which significantly affects their fatigue performance. Therefore, AM Ti64 parts need post-processing to enhance surface finish and fatigue performance. Prior work with a sulfur-based self-terminating etching process for AM Ti64 demonstrated support removal and surface roughness reduction. To further this work, this manuscript details the impact of this sulfur-based post-processing technique on the mechanical properties and the fatigue life of AM Ti64 by characterizing the surface roughness, microstructural evolution, and fracture surfaces. Finally, this post-processing technique decreased the surface roughness parameter - S v by 55 % from 84 ± 11 µm to 38 ± 19 µm and increased the average fatigue life by 340 % from about 7000 cycles to 30,000 cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Propagation of statistical uncertainties of Skyrme mass models to simulations of r -process nucleosynthesis

Uncertainties in nuclear models have a major impact on simulations that aim at understanding the origin of heavy elements in the universe through the rapid neutron capture process ( r process) of nucleosynthesis. Within the framework of the nuclear density functional theory, we use results of Bayesian statistical analysis to propagate uncertainties in the parameters of energy density functionals to the predicted r -process abundance pattern, by way not only of the nuclear masses but also through the influence of the masses on β -decay and neutron capture rates. We point out the importance of the nonequilibrium end stage of the r process in determining the width of the resulting abundance pattern uncertainty bands. We additionally make the first identifications of specific parameters of Skyrme-like energy density functionals which show tentative correlations with particular aspects of the r -process abundance pattern. While previous studies have explored the reduction in the abundance pattern uncertainties due to anticipated new measurements of neutron-rich nuclei, here we point out that an even larger reduction will occur when these new measurements are used to reduce the uncertainty of model predictions of masses, which are then propagated through to the abundance pattern. We make a quantitative prediction for how large this reduction will be.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling Spatial Heterogeneity in Surface Turbulent Heat Flux in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Advances in numerical modeling of cloud dynamics are driving a need for improved land model prediction at convective storm scales. Here, satellite and ground-based vegetation remote sensing data were combined with land model experiments to more accurately characterize land surface spatial heterogeneity in the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). The new subgrid classification of plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI) enables consistent comparison between models and ground-based flux measurements in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Errors in vegetation data sets (inferred from comparison between 250 m satellite and ground-based LAI), while large, had less impact on the simulated characteristics of spatial heterogeneity compared to errors in model representation of surface energy partitioning (between latent and sensible heat flux) and its relationship to LAI. Predicted spatial heterogeneity in surface energy partitioning was enhanced after replacing soil and stomatal resistance parameters with a new set that better predicts the observed relationship to LAI. These modifications increase the number of smaller (mesoscale) dry land patches having higher sensible heat flux. The parameter experiments suggest that vegetation state and processes (transpiration) act to broaden the size spectrum of surface heat flux heterogeneity, which can influence clouds and convective initiation. Moreover, improvements in vegetation input data and model parameters had partially compensating effects on surface flux heterogeneity, indicating the importance of evaluating input data and parameterizations together to improve prediction at higher spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Investigation of Hydrometeor Latent Cooling upon Convective Cold Pool Formation, Sustainment, and Properties

Downdrafts extending from convective clouds can produce cold pools that propagate outward, sometimes initiating new convection along their leading edges. Models operating at scales requiring convective parameterizations usually lack representation of this detail, and thus fail to predict this convective regeneration and longer episodes of convective activity. Developing such parameterizations requires an improved understanding of the physical drivers of cold pools, and detailed studies of the roles of all the contributing microphysical processes have been lacking. This study utilizes a set of 12 simulations conducted within a single convective environment, but with variability in the microphysical fields produced by varying parameters influencing warm-rain or ice processes. Time-integrated microphysical budgets quantify the contribution of each hydrometeor type to the total latent cooling occurring in the downdrafts that form and sustain the cold pool. The timing of the onset of the cold pool is earlier in cases with a stronger warm rain process, but both graupel and rain were equally as likely to be the dominant hydrometeor in the downdraft first forming the cold pool. Graupel sublimation is the dominant term in sustaining the cold pool in all simulations, but the evaporation of rain has the strongest correlation to the cold pool expansion rate, depth, and intensity. Reconciling the current results with past studies elucidates the importance of considering: graupel sublimation, the latent cooling only in downdrafts contributing to the cold pool, and latent cooling in those downdrafts at altitudes that may be significantly higher than the melting level.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Discovering State-Parameter Mappings in Subsurface Models Using Generative Adversarial Networks

A fundamental problem in geophysical modeling is related to the identification and approximation of causal structures among physical processes. However, resolving the bidirectional mappings between physical parameters and model state variables (i.e., solving the forward and inverse problems) is challenging, especially when parameter dimensionality is high. Deep learning has opened a new door toward knowledge representation and complex pattern identification. In particular, the recently introduced generative adversarial networks (GANs) hold strong promises in learning cross-domain mappings for image translation. This study presents a state-parameter identification GAN (SPID-GAN) for simultaneously learning bidirectional mappings between a high-dimensional parameter space and the corresponding model state space. SPID-GAN is demonstrated using a series of representative problems from subsurface flow modeling. Results show that SPID-GAN achieves satisfactory performance in identifying the bidirectional state-parameter mappings, providing a new deep-learning-based, knowledge representation paradigm for a wide array of complex geophysical problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches

Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring the parameter space of MagLIF implosions using similarity scaling. II. Current scaling

Magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) is a magneto-inertial-fusion (MIF) concept, which is presently being studied on the Z pulsed power facility. The MagLIF platform has achieved interesting plasma conditions at stagnation and produced significant fusion yields in the laboratory. Given the relative success of MagLIF, there is a strong interest to scale the platform to higher peak currents. However, scaling MagLIF is not entirely straightforward due to the large dimensionality of the experimental input parameter space and the numerous physical processes involved in MIF implosions. Here, in this work, we propose a novel method to scale MagLIF loads to higher currents. Our method is based on similarity (or similitude) scaling and attempts to preserve much of the physics regimes already known or being studied on today's Z pulsed-power driver. By avoiding significant deviations into unexplored and/or less well-understood regimes, the risk of unexpected outcomes on future scaled-up experiments is reduced. Using arguments based on similarity scaling, we derive the scaling rules for the experimental input parameters characterizing a MagLIF load (as functions of the characteristic current driving the implosion). We then test the estimated scaling laws for various metrics measuring performance against results of 2D radiation–magneto-hydrodynamic hydra simulations. Agreement is found between the scaling theory and the simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Demonstrate Capability of NEAMS Tools to Generate Reactor Kinetics Parameters for Pebble-Bed HTGRs Transient Modeling

The system analysis of anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident for pebblebed reactor systems requires knowledge of the neutron kinetic parameters. These parameters take into account various types of feedback from the pebble-bed core and are typically integrated into system analysis tools such as the System Analysis Module (SAM) in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tool package. These parameters are typically generated by a higher fidelity full-core coupled neutronics/thermal fluids analysis, such as using Griffin and Pronghorn, in 2D or 3D. The delayed neutron fractions (beta) and the neutron lifetimes (lambda) are typically generated by applying the adjoint solution of the neutron flux. Temperature reactivity coefficients are the most important feedback for all anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident, then depending on the transient other effects might be important as rector control system worth, s-curves, and Xenon generation. This work package will establish a methodology and process for calculating the reactor kinetics parameters for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and provide them in a suitable form for system level analyses of typical anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mapping Dark Matter on Small Scales with the Cosmic Microwave Background (Final Report)

Sehgal was funded by DOE Grant DE-SC0020441 over the period from 11/1/2019 - 04/30/2024 (no remaining funds are anticipated). Most recently, Sehgal and her group completed a publication forecasting cosmological parameter constraints for a CMB-HD survey, in addition to SO and CMB-S4 (1). One focus of this work was determining the improvement in parameter constraints when removing the gravitational lensing effect from the primordial CMB (a process called delensing). This work also explored the bias to parameters from neglecting baryonic effects, and ways to mitigate that. In addition, this work highlighted that a CMB-HD N eff measurement could tightly constrain the QCD axion in a modelindependent way (see left panel of Figure 1). Sehgal also developed a novel way to probe inflation via CMB experiments by measuring inflationary magnetic fields (IMFs) (2). IMFs are thought to seed the large magnetic fields we observe in galaxies today, and can be measured by looking for anisotropic rotation of the CMB polarization vectors across the sky (an effect called cosmic birefringence). The cosmic birefringence from IMFs has a unique frequency dependence, allowing it to be separated from other sources of cosmic birefringence. In (2), Sehgal and her postdoc also presented a novel way to remove foreground contamination from Galactic magnetic fields using measurements of the polarization of nearby radio sources. The removal of this Galactic contamination is necessary when measuring IMFs at the level of 0.1 nG; IMFs with a strength of at least 0.1 nG are needed to seed the magnetic fields in galaxies we observe today. Since only inflation can generate such a strong magnetic field, measuring such a signal would be a “smoking gun” signature that inflation occurred. Sehgal showed in (2) that CMB-HD could detect such IMFs with at least 3σ significance (see right panel of Figure 1).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Automated Model Updating Effect on the Linear and Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Historical Masonry Structures

Finite element models supply the simulation of the problems to obtain the structural behaviors under different loading conditions. The updating processes based on changing the uncertain parameters such as material properties, boundary conditions, meshing size etc. are made to create actual finite element models in order to represent the real conditions of the problems. This procedure can be made using two methods, namely manual model updating and global/local automatic model updating. The global/local automatic model updating procedures are very popular owing to the applicability to all kind of engineering structures, minimizing the differences nearly to zero, availability of damage localization and structural health monitoring. In this paper a historical masonry armory building selected as an application and its finite element analyses, experimental measurements and automated model updating processes are carried out. The finite element model of the structures was developed with ANSYS software and first three natural frequencies are attained. The experimental dynamic characteristics such as natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes are obtained using ambient vibration method. The differences between experimental and numerical frequencies are minimized up to the range of 0–1%, by using local updating procedure. The linear and nonlinear seismic analyses of the building are conducted on initial and updated models. At the end of the analyses, maximum displacements, principal stresses and strains are given with detail. In addition, crack distributions diagrams are attained to validate the stresses accumulation points. It can be seen that there is an increasing trend in the displacement, stress and strain values after finite element model updating both linear and nonlinear analysis. In addition, linear and nonlinear analysis results are compared with each other to evaluate the nonlinear analysis effect. It is concluded that the displacement and strain values are increased after nonlinear analysis. But, there is not any agreement in stress values.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Affinity propagation clustering of full-field, high-spatial-dimensional measurements for robust output-only modal identification: A proof-of-concept study

Determination of the model order is a challenging problem in system identification, especially in output-only or operational modal identification where some modes are weakly excited. While existing methods such as the stabilization diagram method (spectral information) are effective, they do not scale to high-dimensional data, which is usually needed for high-fidelity characterization of structural dynamics and has been made available in the emerging full-field measurement techniques using optical methods such as photogrammetry and laser vibrometers. In this proof-of-concept study we present a new non-parametric, data-driven approach for robust output-only identification of high-spatial-dimensional modal parameters of basic structures by efficiently processing and interactively exploiting the full-field measurement (i.e., very dense spatial measurement points). Specifically, we first over-estimate the system model once, producing a pool of candidate modes associated with their modal frequencies and full-field, high-spatial-dimensional mode shapes. This is accomplished by a data-driven method termed affinity propagation clustering (APC), where the active clusters, which are the active modes in our formulations, emerge from the "message-passing" procedure and does not require a pre-determination of the cluster number (mode or model order). Next, rather than using the spectral information to distinguish the physical and spurious modes in the stabilization diagram method, we exploit and visualize the spatial, full-field mode shape associated with each candidate mode to do so. We conduct extensive experiments on basic structural models with comparisons to a few existing methods. The results indicate that the new method is computationally efficient for identifying high-spatial-dimensional modal parameters, and robust to identify weak modes by exploiting the full-field measurement. We also discuss its applicability and limitations for structures with complex geometry (shapes).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatio-temporal ablation dynamics and plasma chemistry of aluminum induced by temporally modulated ytterbium fiber laser

Here, in this work, we studied single-pulse ablation dynamics of a temporally modulated continuous wave laser-material interaction with Al using in situ multimodal time-resolved diagnostics that describe in detail the associated physical and chemical processes. Time-resolved scattering, emission imaging, and optical emission spectroscopy unveiled a sequence of events spread out across three distinct phases: (i) early phase ablation process, associated with particle generation and liquid Al column formation (<20 μs), (ii) secondary detonation when sufficient ejected material is accumulated over the surface (20-50 μs), and (iii) molten liquid Al pool oscillation on the surface, followed by large droplet ejection from the liquid pool (100-500 μs). Atomic Al and AlO were observed with optical emission spectroscopy at different ratios during the entire lifetime of the event, verifying the formation of oxidized Al vapor upon its interaction with air. Morphological and compositional characterization confirmed surface oxidation and material re-solidification in the form of protrusions produced during the irradiation process. This work provides insights into the complex physical and chemical mechanisms of single-pulse ablation in the sub-millisecond laser pulse regime, which are critically important for parameter optimization in a variety of laser processing, microfabrication, and deposition applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation

Presented here is a modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis. Presented methodology is designed to analyse uncertain seismic motions as an input, propagating through uncertain material. Traditional approach for uncertain wave propagation relies on models that include deep bedrock, local soil site, and their random process and random field information. Such models can become quite large and computationally intractable. The modular approach proposed herein features two step approach that allows separate consideration of the deep bedrock and local site along with corresponding random field information. In this work, the first step considers an auxiliary stochastic motions problem in the bedrock. Stochastic local site response can then be simulated in a reduced domain within certain depth from the surface. Application of uncertain seismic motions at depth, for local uncertain site response is done using stochastic effective forces developed through the Domain Reduction Method. By using Hermite polynomial chaos expansion to represent the non-Gaussian random field of material parameters and non-stationary random process of seismic motion, the proposed modular methodology is formulated using intrusive stochastic Galerkin approach, as seen in the Stochastic Elastic–Plastic Finite Element Method (SEPFEM). Developed modular methodology is illustrated using a 1-D stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis with three cases, and simulation results are also verified with results from conventional approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗