Analysis and design of space vehicle flight control systems. Volume VI - Stochastic effects
Statistical methods for analyzing stochastic effects influencing design of space vehicle control systems
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS↗
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Radiation-induced nonlinear degradation of transistor gain Six month progress report, 4 Jan. - 4 Jul. 1968
Statistical analysis of data obtained with 1 MeV tests on transistors
Brown, R. R.↗
Theory of the unmagnetized plasma.
The Vlasov mathematical model of a plasma, which has come to be thought more useful than any other in describing the dynamical behavior of the majority of plasmas of interest, is first examined. Macroscopic variables and moment equations; linear electrostatics solutions; plasma oscillations, ion acoustic waves, and linear instabilities are treated, as well as external fields, 'test' charges, and nonlinear Vlasov phenomena. Plasmas are statistically described, and attention is given to the kinetic theory of the stable, uniform plasma and the Balescu-Lenard equation; two-time ensemble averages and fluctuation spectra in stable plasmas; the kinetic theory of the unstable plasma; and ensembles of Vlasov plasmas. Some illustrative experiments are described. Four appendixes deal with the electrostatic approximation and transverse waves; solution of the linearized Vlasov equation in a magnetic field; estimates of correlation functions from thermal equilibrium; and equivalence of spatially uniform BBGKY and Klimontovich correlations.
Montgomery, D. C.↗
Remote sensing as a tool for watershed-wide estimation of net solar radiation and water loss to the atmosphere
Results are presented for a study intended to develop a general remote sensing-aided cost-effective procedure to estimate watershed-wide water loss to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration and to estimate net solar radiation over the watershed. Evapotranspiration estimation employs a basic two-stage two-phase sample of three information resolution levels. Net solar radiation is taken as one of the variables at each level of evapotranspiration modeling. The input information for models requiring spatial information will be provided by Landsat digital data, environmental satellite data, ground meteorological data, ground sample unit information, and topographic data. The outputs of the sampling-estimation/data bank system will be in-place maps of evapotranspiration on a data resolution element basis, watershed-wide evapotranspiration isopleths, and estimates of watershed and subbasin total evapotranspiration with associated statistical confidence bounds. The methodology developed is being tested primarily on the Spanish Creek Watershed Plumas County, California.
Khorram, S.↗
The vulnerability of electric equipment to carbon fibers of mixed lengths: An analysis
The susceptibility of a stereo amplifier to damage from a spectrum of lengths of graphite fibers was calculated. A simple analysis was developed by which such calculations can be based on test results with fibers of uniform lengths. A statistical analysis was applied for the conversation of data for various logical failure criteria.
Elber, W.↗
An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events, volume 1
The scope of a critical in-flight event (CIFE) with emphasis on pilot management of available resources is described. Detailed scenarios for both full mission simulation and written testing of pilot responses to CIFE's, and statistical relationships among pilot characteristics and observed responses are developed. A model developed to described pilot response to CIFE and an analysis of professional fight crews compliance with specified operating procedures and the relationships with in-flight errors are included.
Rockwell, T. H.↗
A new statistic for the analysis of circular data in gamma-ray astronomy
A new statistic is proposed for the analysis of circular data. The statistic is designed specifically for situations where a test of uniformity is required which is powerful against alternatives in which a small fraction of the observations is grouped in a small range of directions, or phases.
Protheroe, R. J.↗
Intercomparison of global SST fields derived from satellite sensors and ship observations
Near global comparisons were made between binned forms of SST obtained from different instruments, ship meteorological observations, and the output of a meteorological model. Binning hereinafter means gridding by simple summation of data values in a bin, which in this study was a 2 deg. x 2 deg. box or a 10 deg. x 10 box surrounding a grid node. In the binned comparisons, the question is asked: are the binned data from two instruments drawn from the same population? The first two measures of statistical moments of the populations are used to test the hypothesis that they are. Comparisons were also attempted between raw forms of the various SST retrievals, using a structure function analysis. The results of this analysis were relatively uninteresting and are therefore omitted.
Pazan, S. E.↗
Forecast of an exceptionally large even-numbered solar cycle
Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, an accurate prediction was made for solar cycle 21 by Schatten et al. (1978). Using the same dynamo technique for solar cycle 22, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 170 + or - 25 is obtained. This large sunspot number is expected to peak in 1990 + or - 1 year. The F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 210 + or - 25 flux units. Since this value is larger than values obtained with prediction schemes based upon 'statistical' and 'periodicity' methods, it provides a useful test for the current methodology, based upon the strength of the sun's polar field near solar minimum. The predicted degree of solar activity is expected to enhance the density and temperature of the earth's thermosphere to values somewhat larger than those found in solar cycle 21. This will have an impact on the orbital lifetime of low altitude satellites.
Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
Orthostatic function during a stand test before and after head-up or head-down bedrest
The effects of head-down or head-up bedrest at -5, +10, +20, or +42 deg (simulating 0, 1/6, 1/3, and 2/3 g, respectively) for 6 hrs on four different days on the orthostatic tolerance were investigated by measuring relevant physiological reactions to orthostatic test taken before and after bedrest sessions. The multivariate analysis of variance statistical analyses indicates that there was no angle effect on any of the cardiovascular parameters monitored during the last 3 min of the stand test, suggesting that partial gravity loads would have no effect on the cardiovascular deconditioning exhibited postflight. There was, however, a significant elevation in the heart rate post-bedrest, and the heart rate increased on standing. Results from the stand test pre- and post-bedrest at -5 deg (but not at +10, +20, and +42 deg) were similar to those observed after space flight.
Lathers, Claire M.↗
The cosmological constant
The cosmological constant problem is examined in the context of both astronomy and physics. Effects of a nonzero cosmological constant are discussed with reference to expansion dynamics, the age of the universe, distance measures, comoving density of objects, growth of linear perturbations, and gravitational lens probabilities. The observational status of the cosmological constant is reviewed, with attention given to the existence of high-redshift objects, age derivation from globular clusters and cosmic nuclear data, dynamical tests of Omega sub Lambda, quasar absorption line statistics, gravitational lensing, and astrophysics of distant objects. Finally, possible solutions to the physicist's cosmological constant problem are examined.
Carroll, Sean M.↗
Experience of the JPL Exploratory Data Analysis Team at validating HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters
Validation of the HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters began with the cloud/climate feedback problem. The derived effective cloud amount is less sensitive to surface temperature for higher clouds. This occurs because as the cloud elevation increases, the difference between surface temperature and cloud temperature increases, so only a small change in cloud amount is needed to effect a large change in radiance at the detector. By validating the cloud parameters it is meant 'developing a quantitative sense for the physical meaning of the measured parameters', by: (1) identifying the assumptions involved in deriving parameters from the measured radiances, (2) testing the input data and derived parameters for statistical error, sensitivity, and internal consistency, and (3) comparing with similar parameters obtained from other sources using other techniques.
Kahn, Ralph↗
Hot gas in the interstellar medium: A reanalysis of O VI absorption data
The Copernicus O(+5) column densities toward 72 stars provide a rare and valuable tracer of 10(exp 5.5) K gas in the interstellar medium. The original analysis of the data by Jenkins provided important clues about the distribution of interstellar O(+5) ions, but our understanding of the local interstellar medium has since grown substantially. We revisit that work, including the possibility that local hot gas may contribute a significant O(+5) column density to most lines of sight. Our reanalysis also includes slight improvements in the statistics and was found to be reliable when tested on simulated data sets. In the end, we come to conclusions about the distribution of interstellar O(+5) ions that differ considerably from those of the original analysis. With our reanalysis, some theoretical models now show promise. For example, our Local Bubble column density compares favorably with the estimated quantity of O(+5) within the remnant of an ancient local explosion. Similarly, our mean O(+5) column density per feature in more distant regions is like that found in models of hot interstellar bubbles from either stellar winds or ancient supernova explosions in a warm diffuse interstellar environment, suggesting that the hot gas in interstellar space may exist primarily within discrete regions of modest volume occupation rather than in a continuous and pervasive phase.
Shelton, R. L.↗
Computational modeling of cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress
The objective of this study is to develop a model of the cardiovascular system capable of simulating the short-term (< or = 5 min) transient and steady-state hemodynamic responses to head-up tilt and lower body negative pressure. The model consists of a closed-loop lumped-parameter representation of the circulation connected to set-point models of the arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes. Model parameters are largely based on literature values. Model verification was performed by comparing the simulation output under baseline conditions and at different levels of orthostatic stress to sets of population-averaged hemodynamic data reported in the literature. On the basis of experimental evidence, we adjusted some model parameters to simulate experimental data. Orthostatic stress simulations are not statistically different from experimental data (two-sided test of significance with Bonferroni adjustment for multiple comparisons). Transient response characteristics of heart rate to tilt also compare well with reported data. A case study is presented on how the model is intended to be used in the future to investigate the effects of post-spaceflight orthostatic intolerance.
Flight Experiment↗
M.I.T./Canadian vestibular experiments on the Spacelab-1 mission: 4. Space motion sickness: symptoms, stimuli, and predictability
Space sickness symptoms were observed by 4 specially trained observers on Spacelab-1. Three reported persistent symptoms, and vomited repeatedly during the first and/or second day of flight. Head movements on all axes were provocative, particularly in pitch and roll. Head acceleration data recorded from 2 symptomatic crewmen showed that after several hours of physical activity in orbit, symptoms appeared, and thereafter both crewmen were compelled to limit head movements. Firm body contact with motionless surfaces helped alleviate symptoms. When crewmembers floated into unfamiliar body orientations in the cabin, inherent ambiguities in static visual orientation cues sometimes produced spatial reorientation episodes which were also provocative. Symptoms largely resembled those of other forms of prolonged motion sickness, superimposed upon other symptoms attributable to fluid shift. All 4 eventually used anti-motion sickness drugs. When they did, vomiting frequency was reduced. By the 4th day, symptoms subsided, and head accelerations again increased in magnitude and variability. Sickness intensity in orbit was not predicted by statistically concordant results of 6 acute preflight susceptibility tests. However, results from a longer duration preflight prism goggles test showed an apparent correlation. All subjects were asymptomatic making head movements in parabolic flight 4 days after the mission, but not 1 year later. Overall, results support the view that space sickness is a motion sickness.
Non-NASA Center↗
Chemical Characterization and Reactivity Testing of Fuel-Oxidizer Reaction Product (Test Report)
The product of incomplete reaction of monomethylhydrazine (MMH) and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) propellants, or fuel-oxidizer reaction product (FORP), has been hypothesized as a contributory cause of an anomaly which occurred in the chamber pressure (PC) transducer tube on the Reaction Control Subsystem (RCS) aft thruster 467 on flight STS-51. A small hole was found in the titanium-alloy PC tube at the first bend below the pressure transducer. It was surmised that the hole may have been caused by heat and pressure resulting from ignition of FORP. The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) was requested to define the chemical characteristics of FORP, characterize its reactivity, and simulate the events in a controlled environment which may have lead to the Pc-tube failure. Samples of FORP were obtained from the gas-phase reaction of MMH with NTO under laboratory conditions, the pulsed firings of RCS thrusters with modified PC tubes using varied oxidizer or fuel lead times, and the nominal RCS thruster firings at WSTF and Kaiser-Marquardt. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), accelerating rate calorimetry (ARC), ion chromatography (IC), inductively coupled plasma (ICP) spectrometry, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) coupled to FTIR (TGA/FTIR), and mechanical impact testing were used to qualitatively and quantitatively characterize the chemical, thermal, and ignition properties of FORP. These studies showed that the composition of FORP is variable but falls within a limited range of compositions that depends on the fuel loxidizer ratio at the time of formation, composition of the post-formation atmosphere (reducing or oxidizing), and reaction or postreaction temperature. A typical composition contains methylhydrazinium nitrate (MMHN), ammonium nitrate (AN), methylammonium nitrate (MAN), and trace amounts of hydrazinium nitrate and 1,1-dimethylhydrazinium nitrate. The thermal decomposition reactions of FORP compositions used in this study were unremarkable, Neither the various compositions of FORP, the pure major components of FORP, nor mixtures of FORP with propellant-system corrosion products showed any unusual thermal activity when decomposed under laboratory conditions. Off-limit thruster operations were simulated by rapid mixing of liquid MMH and liquid NTO in a confined space. The test hardware was constructed with pressure- and temperature-measurement devices to determine if the expected fuel oxidizer reaction would result in increased energy release when FORP, FORP constituents, or propellant-system corrosion products were present. These tests demonstrated that FORP, MMHN, AN, or Inconel corrosion products can induce a mixture of MMH and NTO to produce component-damaging energies. The simulation-test program was not extensive enough to provide statistical probabilities for these events but did show that such events can occur. Damaging events required FORP or metal salts to be present at the initial mixing of MMH and NTO. Based on the results of these studies, it is suggested that removal or mitigation of a buildup of these materials may decrease the incidence of these high-energy, potentially damaging events.
Source record↗
A Constitutive Model for Creep Lifetime of PBO Braided Cord
A constitutive model to describe the creep lifetime of PBO braided cord has been developed and fit to laboratory data. The model follows an approach proposed for p-aramid cord in similar applications, and has a Boltzman-type representation that arises from consideration of the failure phenomenon mechanism. The data were obtained using a hydraulic-type universal testing machine, and were analyzed according to Weibull statistics using commercially-available software. The application of concern to the author is NASA's Ultra- Long Duration Balloon and other gossamer spacecraft, but the motivations for the related p-aramid works suggest broader interest.
Sterling, W. J.↗
Comparison of Ocular Outcomes in Two 14-Day Bed Rest Studies
Reports of astronauts visual changes raised concern about ocular health during long-duration spaceflight. Some of these findings included hyperopic shifts, choroidal folds, optic disc edema, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickening, and cotton wool spots. While the etiology remains unknown, hypotheses speculate that hypertension in the brain caused by cephalad fluid shifts during spaceflight is a possible mechanism for these ocular changes. Head-down tilt (HDT) bed rest is a spaceflight analog that induces cephalad fluid shifts. In addition, previous studies of the HDT position demonstrated body fluid shifts associated with changes in intraocular pressure (IOP). For these reasons, vision monitoring of HDT bed rest subjects was implemented for NASA bed rest studies. Subjects selected for these studies were healthy adults (14 males and 5 females). Average age was 37.5 plus or minus 9.1 years, weight was 77.4 plus or minus 11.3 Kg, and height was 173.4 plus or minus 7.2 14 cm. Controlled conditions followed for all NASA bed rest studies were implemented. These conditions included factors such as eating a standardized diet, maintaining a strict sleep wake cycle, and remaining in bed for 24 hours each day. In one study, subjects maintained a horizontal (0 degree) position while in bed and were exercised six days per week with an integrated resistance and aerobic training (iRAT) program. In the other study, subjects were placed at 6 degrees HDT while in bed and did not engage in exercise. All subjects underwent pre- and post bed rest vision testing. While the battery of vision tests for each study was not identical, measures common to both studies will be presented. These measures included IOP and measures that provided an indication of optic disc swelling as derived from optical coherence tomography (OCT) testing: average retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (millimeters), disc area (square millimeters), rim area (square millimters), and average cup to disc (C/D) ratio. For all measures, there was no significant difference between subject groups for pre-bed rest testing. Post bed rest values also remained similar between groups. Comparison of pre- to post bed rest testing within each group did not demonstrate any statistical differences. These preliminary results from 14-day bed rest studies suggest that the combination of exercise and horizontal bed rest as compared to 6 degrees HDT bed rest did not produce differences in the ocular response with regard to IOP and optic disc parameters. The ocular measures reported here only included pre- and post bed rest time points. Further investigation is needed to examine both the acute response and long term adaptation of structural and functional ocular parameters in the bed rest platform and determine its usefulness for studying spaceflight phenomena. From a clinical perspective, the ability to study ocular responses in the controlled environment of the bed rest platform can provide valuable information for the care of patients restricted to bed rest.
Cromwell, R. L.↗