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BSSD 2019 Performance Metric Q2

The LANL SFA in Terrestrial Microbial Carbon Cycling aims to inform climate modeling and enable carbon management in terrestrial ecosystems by discovering widespread biological processes that control carbon storage and release in temperate biome soils (primarily arid grass/shrub lands and forests).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BSSD 2019 Performance Metric Q4

The LANL SFA in Terrestrial Microbial Carbon Cycling aims to inform climate modeling and enable carbon management in terrestrial ecosystems by discovering widespread biological processes that control carbon storage and release in temperate biome soils. To achieve these goals, computational approaches are essential to analyze increasingly complex ‘omics’ data from microbial communities in environmental samples. The SFA continues to leverage advances in ‘omics' measurement technology and computation tools to decipher microbial community function in environmental samples. The computational approach is aligned with the recent shift in the SFA’s research approach. When the SFA began 10 years ago, computational approaches principally addressed “who is there” with extremely limited insight into function. Accessible ‘omics' data for complex soil communities were primarily amplicon DNA sequences of taxonomic or functional marker genes obtained by PCR, cloning, and Sanger sequencing. Computational tools for community analysis were nascent. Over the past decade, genome resources (DOE-Integrated Microbial Genomics database) and data acquisition increased 1000-fold, common computational pipelines for many analysis tasks have arisen, and the variety of ‘omics’ measurements has expanded to routinely include shotgun metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, and versions of metabolomics. The SFA is capitalizing on these advances while also developing new computational techniques to decipher how communities with different patterns of carbon cycling function from the species to ecosystem level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Exposure of Nanopolystyrene and Other Environmental Contaminants—Their Toxic Effects on the Survival and Reproduction of Enchytraeus crypticus

Plastics in all shapes and sizes have become widespread across ecosystems due to intense anthropogenic use. As such, they can interact with other contaminants that accumulate in the terrestrial environment, such as pharmaceuticals, metals or nanomaterials (NMs). These interactions can potentiate combined toxic effects in the exposed soil organisms, with hazardous long-term consequences to the full ecosystem. In the present study, a terrestrial model species, Enchytraeus crypticus (oligochaeta), was exposed through contaminated soil with nanopolystyrene (representative of nanoplastics (NPls)), alone and in combination with diphenhydramine (DPH, representative of pharmaceuticals), silver nitrate (AgNO3, representative of metals) and vanadium nanoparticles (VNPs, representative of NMs). AgNO3 and VNPs decreased E. crypticus reproduction at 50 mg/kg, regardless of the presence of NPls. Moreover, at the same concentration, both single and combined VNP exposures decreased the E. crypticus survival. On the other hand, DPH and NPls individually caused no effect on organisms’ survival and reproduction. However, the combination of DPH (10 and 50 mg/kg) with 300 mg NPls/kg induced a decrease in reproduction, showing a relevant interaction between the two contaminants (synergism). Our findings indicate that the NPls can play a role as vectors for other contaminants and can potentiate the effects of pharmaceuticals, such as DPH, even at low and sub-lethal concentrations, highlighting the negative impact of mixtures of contaminants (including NPls) on soil systems.

Mendes, Luís A. (ORCID:0000000245738290)↗

Technical note: A modified formulation of dynamic energy budget theory for faster computation of biological growth

Abstract. The mass conservation equation in the presence of boundary fluxes and chemical reactions from non-equilibrium thermodynamics is used to derive a modified dynamic energy budget (mDEB) model. Compared to the standard dynamic energy budget (sDEB) model (Kooijman, 2009), this modified formulation does not place the dilution effect in the mobilization kinetics of reserve biomass, and it maintains the partition principle for reserve mobilization dynamics for both linear and non-linear kinetics. Overall, the mDEB model shares most features with the sDEB model. However, for biological growth that requires multiple nutrients, the mDEB model is computationally much more efficient by not requiring numerical iterations for obtaining the specific growth rate. In an example of modeling the growth of Thalassiosira weissflogii in a nitrogen-limiting chemostat, the mDEB model was found to have almost the same accuracy as the sDEB model while requiring almost half of the computing time of the sDEB model. Since the sDEB model has been successfully applied in numerous studies, we believe that the mDEB model can help improve the modeling of biological growth and the associated ecosystem processes in various contexts.

Tang, Jinyun↗

Sensitivity of June Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation in the Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement

Land cover changes alter the near surface weather and climate. Changes in land surface properties such as albedo, roughness length, stomatal resistance, and leaf area index alter the surface energy balance, leading to differences in near surface temperatures. This study utilized a newly developed land cover data set for the eastern United States to examine the influence of historical land cover change on June temperatures and precipitation. The new data set contains representations of the land cover and associated biophysical parameters for 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992, capturing the clearing of the forest and the expansion of agriculture over the eastern United States from 1650 to the early twentieth century and the subsequent forest regrowth. The data set also includes the inferred distribution of potentially water-saturated soils at each time slice for use in the sensitivity tests. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, equipped with the Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF-2) land surface parameterization, was used to simulate the weather of June 1996 using the 1992, 1920, 1850, and 1650 land cover representations. The results suggest that changes in surface roughness and stomatal resistance have caused present-day maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern United States to warm by about 0.3 C and 0.4 C, respectively, when compared to values in 1650. In contrast, the maximum temperatures have remained about the same, while the minimums have cooled by about 0.1 C when compared to 1920. Little change in precipitation was found.

Strack, John E.↗

Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

ARMD's urban air mobility strategy, including key activities of UMLs, Grand Challenge series, UAM ecosystem working groups, supply chain management, and modeling simulation tools.

Kopardekar, Parimal H.↗

Lessons from Earth Aerobiology for Venus Astrobiology

Venus’s clouds have often suggested as a possible habitat. The constraints governing putative airborne life in such a habitat in turn inform priorities and strategies for remote and in situ exploration, methods by which resulting biosignatures might be detected, exoplanet habitability assessment, and planetary protection concerns. Lessons drawn from studying Earth’s aerobiosphere can help improve this understanding. There are altitude ranges within Venus’s clouds in which temperature, pressure, particle size, and radiation appear to be within the limits of microbial life on Earth, and life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed. However, given the lack of a habitable surface reservoir, a long-term stable Venus aerobiosphere would require that the reproduction rate of the airborne microbes be faster than the settling rate of airborne microbes due to gravity, or eventually the population would be depleted; put another way, the mean generation time would need to exceed the mean residence time. This creates a joint constraint of aerosol dynamics, potential nutrient availability and energy influx, and bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage. Even at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair and growth in response to transient water influx, such as from volcanism, is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – thus will also improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. In Earth’s troposphere, warm water clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. However, Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer may be a better analogue: supercooled sulfuric acidaerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 μm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Though ‘hot spots’ can occur associated with tropospheric mixing, viable cells in stratospheric samples are rare (~102 cells/m3), and primarily inactive forms such as spores. It is not yet clear whether such bioaerosols are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located, and reproduction in situ has not yet been observed. In this model of a sparse, largely dormant Venus ecosystem, a single transect on descent is likely to pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. A targeted strategy would sample through an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, andtake multiple transects separated in time and space. This is compatible with other in situ science goals seeking to understand the dynamics and heterogeneities of Venus’s clouds.

Lower atmosphere↗

Sacramento Urban Development: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Inform Urban Planning Initiatives in Sacramento, California

The combined effects of increasing urbanization and changing climatic conditions have exacerbated the urban heat island (UHI) effect and heat-related risks for city dwellers. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is further compounded by risk factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of Sacramento, as California’s fastest-growing city by population, is particularly invested in combatting the UHI effect. The team collaborated with the City of Sacramento and urban planning firm, Dyett and Bhatia, on three main goals: assessing urban heat at the neighborhood scale, identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, and assessing heat risk to the population. This project utilized NASA Earth observation products to identify hotspots within the communities of Sacramento and create maps of urban heat, the heat-mitigation index, and heat risk from 2016-2020. The team used the Surface Reflectance product from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) thermal infrared sensor. Additionally, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model was used to assess the impact of increased tree canopy scenarios. Urban hotspots were identified in central Sacramento and along major transportation corridors such as Stockton Boulevard, while the highest risk areas were identified in the communities of Fruitridge/Broadway and North Sacramento. This project identified these high-opportunity areas for heat mitigation to inform the City of Sacramento's General Plan and reduce citizen risk by addressing urban heat islands.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Sacramento Urban Development: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Support Urban Planning Initiatives in Sacramento, California

The combined effects of increasing urbanization and climate change have exacerbated the urban heat island (UHI) effect and heat-related risks for city dwellers. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is further compounded by risk factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of Sacramento, as California’s fastest growing city in terms of population, is particularly invested in combatting the UHI effect. The team collaborated with the City of Sacramento and urban planning firm, Dyett and Bhatia, on three main goals: assessing urban heat at the neighborhood scale; identifying priority areas for cooling interventions; and assessing heat risk to the population. This project utilized NASA Earth observation products to identify hotspots within the community areas of Sacramento and create maps of urban heat, the heat-mitigation index, and heat risk of the study period from 2016-2020. The Surface Reflectance product were used from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) thermal infrared sensor. Additionally, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban cooling model was used to assess the impact of increased tree canopy scenarios. Urban hotspots were identified in central Sacramento and along major transportation corridors such as Stockton Boulevard, while highest risk areas were identified in the community areas of Fruitridge/Broadway and North Sacramento. This project identified these high-opportunity areas for heat mitigation to inform the City of Sacramento's General Plan. This will inform the partners’ plans to reduce citizen risk by addressing urban heat islands.

Karina Alvarez↗

San Diego Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Drivers of Extreme Urban Heat and Generate a High-Resolution Vulnerability Index for Urban Planning and Climate Resiliency in San Diego, California

Exposure to heat exacerbated by an increase in urbanization as well as increasing global temperatures has become a growing concern for cities and their residents. Excess heat can cause increased heat-related morbidity, mortality, and energy costs. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is oftentimes correlated to demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of San Diego, California boasts 1.4 million residents and, like many other major cities, has experienced increases in heat-related hospitalizations and mortality. The burden of urban heat is also not equal amongst communities; areas with lower income and communities of color bear a disproportionate burden. In partnership with the City of San Diego, and American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange, the DEVELOP team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) imagery to identify areas of highest heat based on land surface temperature from 2015-2020. Our analyses showed that health demographics such as obesity and cardiovascular health were the strongest indicators for heat vulnerability. In addition, various inputs (land use/land cover, tree canopy, and building intensity derived from the City of San Diego data along with albedo from Landsat 8) were used in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model to investigate changes in cooling rates in current and future scenarios for the city. The model results showed that cooling is expected to occur due to a 5% increase in tree canopy. The City of San Diego can use these results to inform the development of the Climate Resilient San Diego plan and prioritize at-risk communities for cooling interventions.

John Dialesandro↗

Fairfax County Urban Development: Identifying Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies for Climate Adaptation Planning in Fairfax County, Virginia

Extreme high temperatures lead to increased instances of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, and even death, as well as increased energy consumption and infrastructure costs. People in urbanized areas experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to diminished vegetation and increased impervious surfaces which absorb and radiate heat. Fairfax County, Virginia has embarked on Resilient Fairfax, a program aimed at addressing climate adaptation and resilience. The DEVELOP team partnered with the Fairfax County Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination (OEEC) to assess the extent of the urban heat island effect on the county and its most vulnerable populations. The team used data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) for the years 2013 to 2021 and found that the hottest spots were in densely urbanized areas, with temperatures as much as 47°F above that of undeveloped reference areas. The team used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model and determined that areas with higher tree canopy cover had greater heat mitigation capacity. Estimates from the InVEST model showed that a 4.5% increase in canopy cover across the county could result in a temperature reduction of up to 2.4°F in some areas. The results will allow partners to assess heat distribution across Fairfax County and implement effective mitigation strategies, including locating prime locations for cooling centers and increasing canopy cover.

W. Pierce Holloway↗

Assessment of Quantum ML Applicability for Climate Actions: Comparison of the Variational Quantum Classifier and the Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Classical ML Models

Climate change refers to significant and long-term alterations in the Earth’s climate patterns, typically resulting from human activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Addressing climate change is not merely an option but a necessity, demanding creative solutions and efforts from individuals, researchers, communities, and governments. Despite the capabilities of machine learning (ML) with data-driven solutions promising to combat climate change-related problems, they face challenges stemming from traditional computational methods and prolonged training times, impeding their practical utility. Recent strides in quantum computing have permeated diverse domains, spanning from manufacturing engineering and pharmaceutical discovery to the latest frontier of detecting climate anomalies. With the potential to substantially reduce time and computational complexity, quantum computing shows promise in addressing climate change impacts. Its distinctive features will enable the concurrent exploration of expansive solution spaces, making it well-suited for analyzing extensive climate datasets, simulating intricate climate models, optimizing resource allocation, and discerning patterns in climate data for mitigation and adaptation endeavors. This study explores the potential of using Quantum machine learning (QML) techniques on climate and weather data obtained from NASA Giovannis. We used two QML algorithms, the Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) and the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) models, using the IBM Qiskit ML 0.7.2 ecosystem. We used an actual 127-Qubit IBM Quantum Computer (IBM 127-qubit Eagle) in this study. The methodology and results sections describe the experiences gained from applying and evaluating quantum ML results on climate and weather data obtained from NASA satellites as a novel practical application of quantum computing.

Earth Observational Data↗

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO 2 sink

The difference is found at the margins The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about a quarter of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but the amount that they take up varies from year to year. Why? Combining models and observations, Ahlström et al. found that marginal ecosystems—semiarid savannas and low-latitude shrublands—are responsible for most of the variability. Biological productivity in these semiarid regions is water-limited and strongly associated with variations in precipitation, unlike wetter tropical areas. Understanding carbon uptake by these marginal lands may help to improve predictions of variations in the global carbon cycle. Science , this issue p. 895

Ahlström, Anders↗

Earth's Earliest Ecosystems in the C: The Use of Microbial Mats to Demonstrate General Principles of Scientific Inquiry and Microbial Ecology

Microbial mats are living examples of the most ancient biological communities on Earth. As Earth's earliest ecosystems, they are centrally important to understanding the history of life on our planet and are useful models for the search for life elsewhere. As relatively compact (but complete) ecosystems, microbial mats are also extremely useful for educational activities. Mats may be used to demonstrate a wide variety of concepts in general and microbial ecology, including the biogeochemical cycling of elements, photosynthesis and respiration, and the origin of the Earth's present oxygen containing atmosphere. Microbial mats can be found in a number of common environments accessible to teachers, and laboratory microbial mats can be constructed using materials purchased from biological supply houses. With funding from NASA's Exobiology program, we have developed curriculum and web-based activities centered on the use of microbial mats as tools for demonstrating general principles in ecology, and the scientific process. Our web site (http://microbes.arc.nasa.gov) includes reference materials, lesson plans, and a "Web Lab", featuring living mats maintained in a mini-aquarium. The site also provides information as to how research on microbial mats supports NASA's goals, and various NASA missions. A photo gallery contains images of mats, microscopic views of the organisms that form them, and our own research activities. An animated educational video on the web site uses computer graphic and video microscopy to take students on a journey into a microbial mat. These activities are targeted to a middle school audience and are aligned with the National Science Standards.

Bebout, Brad M.↗

Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance

As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O 3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O 3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O 3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O 3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O 3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O 3 by 5% to 15% depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O 3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O 3 within a range of ±50% depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8% for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O 3 near the tropopause (~300 hPa or ~8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O 3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20% at Eureka. Observed and simulated O 3 precursors (CO, NO x , and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NO x but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O 3 matches the observed O 3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O 3 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest response and recovery following disturbance in upland forests of the Atlantic Coastal Plain

Carbon and water cycling of forests contribute significantly to the Earth’s overall biogeochemical cycling and may be affected by disturbance and climate change. As a larger body of research becomes available about leaf-level, ecosystem and regional scale effects of disturbances on forest ecosystems, a more mechanistic understanding is developing which can improve modeling efforts. Here, we summarize some of the major effects of physical and biogenic disturbances, such as drought, prescribed fire, and insect defoliation, on leaf and ecosystem-scale physiological responses as well as impacts on carbon and water cycling in an Atlantic Coastal Plain upland oak/pine and upland pine forest. During drought, stomatal conductance and canopy stomatal conductance were reduced, however, defoliation increased conductance on both leaf-level and canopy scale. Furthermore, after prescribed fire, leaf-level stomatal conductance was unchanged for pines but decreased for oaks, while canopy stomatal conductance decreased temporarily, but then rebounded the following growing season, thus exhibiting transient responses. This study suggests that forest response to disturbance varies from the leaf to ecosystem level as well as species level and thus, these differential respon

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗