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NASA NTRS2019

Seeker Free-Flying Inspector GNC System Overview

Seeker is an ultra-low cost approach to highly automated extravehicular inspection of crewed or uncrewed spacecraft that has been designed and built in-house at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The first version of Seeker is intended to be an incremental development towards an advanced inspection capability. This effort builds on past free-flying inspector development efforts such as the Autonomous Extravehicular Activity Robotic Camera Sprint (AERCam Sprint) and Mini AERCam. Seeker was funded as an International Space Station (ISS) "X-by" Project, which required delivery of the vehicle approximately one year after authority to proceed and within the budget of $1.8 million. Seeker will fly onboard the NG-11 Cygnus mission in 2019 and will deploy after Cygnus' primary mission is completed. Seeker will perform inspection-like maneuvers within 50 meters of the target vehicle (Cygnus) and then dispose itself. The Seeker Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) system is composed entirely of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) and space-rated COTS items, an inertial-relative Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter (MEKF), point-to-point guidance (with various additional modes such as stationkeeping), proportional-integral translational control, phase plane rotational control, and a state machine for automated mission moding with minimal ground input.

Navigation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assimilation of AERONET and MODIS AOT Observations Using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation Methods and Its Impact on Aerosol Forecasting Skill

Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT> 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

Rubin, Juli I.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Real-Time Parameter Estimation for Flexible Aircraft

A method for estimating aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for flexible aircraft is developed and demonstrated using flight test data for the X-56A subscale demonstrator. The method uses the equation-error approach with frequency-domain data, and can be applied post-flight or in real time during flight. The non-dimensional aeroelastic forces and moments and the explanatory variables (including generalized displacement, rate, and acceleration states for the vibration modes) are estimated using a finite element model and onboard sensor measurements in both a least squares and Kalman filtering framework. The data are then transformed into the frequency domain for parameter estimation using equation error. This method can result in a more efficient analysis than with other iterative methods, and can leverage existing statistical tools for model structure determination, data collinearity detection, combining multiple maneuvers or prior information, and others to improve model quality.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗
NASA NTRS2018

Attitude Control System for a Balloon Based Telescope

The Balloon Experimental Twin Telescope for Infrared Interferometry (BETTII) is an 8-meter interferometer which operates on a high-altitude balloon. BETTII had its first successful engineering flight in June 2017. In this paper we discuss the design of the control system for BETTII, which includes the coarse pointing loop and the estimator controls algorithm (Extended Kalman Filter) implemented in FPGA. We will also discuss the different system modes that we defined in the controls system loop, which are used in different phases of the flight and are activated in order to acquire a target star in the science detector. The pointing loop uses different sensors and actuators in each phase to keep pointing at the desired target. The main sensors aregyroscopes, star cameras, and auxiliary sensors such as high-altitude GPS and magnetometers. The azimuth control is achieved with Compensated Controlled Moment Gyros (CCMG) and a Momentum Dump motor. For the elevation control, high-precision motors are used, which change the elevation of the siderostat mirrors. The combination of these instruments keep the baseline oriented within few arcseconds from the target star.In this paper, we will also present the software architecture relevant to the control system. This includes the description of the two flight computers present on the payload and the different control loops that are executed on them. Similarly, we will explain the importance of synchronization between all the sensors and actuators, which have to be referenced to a single master clock in order to obtain science data.

Vila Hernandez De Lorenzo, Jordi↗
NASA NTRS2019

Testing of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Attitude Control System Re-Design Without a Gyro

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) was launched in 2009 and, with itsseven science instruments, has made numerous contributions to our understandingof the moon. LRO is in an elliptical, polar lunar orbit and nominally maintainsa nadir orientation. There are frequent slews off nadir to observe various sciencetargets. LRO attitude control system (ACS) has two star trackers and a gyro forattitude estimation in an extended Kalman filter (EKF) and four reaction wheelsused in a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller. LRO is equipped withthrusters for orbit adjustments and momentum management. In early 2018, thegyro was powered off following a fairly rapid decline in the laser intensity on theX axis. Without the gyro, the EKF has been disabled. Attitude is provided by asingle star tracker and a coarse rate estimate is computed by a back differencingof the star tracker quaternions. Slews have also been disabled. A new rate estimationapproach makes use of a complementary filter, combining the quaterniondifferentiated rates and the integrated PID limited control torque (with reactionwheel drag and feedforward torque removed). The filtered rate estimate replacesthe MIMU rate in the EKF, resulting in minimal flight software changes. The paperwill cover the preparation and testing of the new gyroless algorithm, both inground simulations and inflight.

Halverson, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

On-Board Battery Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric-Propulsion Aircraft

The reliability of the propulsion system of an aircraft is paramount for the aircraft safety and hence the aircraft health must be monitored continuously. In contrast to fuel- operated aircraft, electric battery-operated propulsion system poses specific problems, such as, the remaining battery power does not linearly decrease and cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we describe a combined monitoring and prognostics architecture that can continuously monitor all components of the electric propulsion system with respect to safety and performance properties as well as state of charge and rest of useful life for the battery. Our system combines a detailed electrochemical battery model for Li-ion batteries with a powerful prognostics engine based upon an Unscented Kalman Filter with the R2U2 monitoring device, which provides efficient observers for metric temporal logic and Bayesian reasoning. R2U2 is a real-time, realizable, responsive, unobtrusive unit, which continuously monitors sensor readings, outputs of the prognostics engine, as well as the ight software status for safety, performance, and security properties. We illustrate our architecture with two case studies, one reporting actual ight tests with an X8+ octocopter and the other a software-in-the-loop simulation with an unmanned Edge 540 electric aircraft model.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of TLE-Based Orbit Determination and Prediction for Cubesats

The IceCube satellite is a 3U cubesat which was deployed from the International Space Station Nanoracks in May 2017. IceCube uses onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements for both science data processing and orbit determination; additionally, IceCube uses Two Line Element (TLE) sets provided by USSTRATCOM through Space Track for ground station acquisition. Once acquired, GPS measurements are downlinked and can be verified against nearby TLE states.TLE sets are typically used for cubesat acquisition data, however the accuracy of their propagation has a limited lifespan which can cause issues when using an older TLE to attempt spacecraft acquisition. This presentation details the merits of TLE-based orbit determination and prediction and discusses techniques for improving both. These refinements allow for improved cubesat acquisition as well as calibration and on-orbit checkout of the GPS. Using IceCube data as representative of a typical cubesat, TLE states are simulated as tracking data and processed through an Extended Kalman Filter. This filtered solution provides not only an ongoing estimate of spacecraft drag state parameters, but also improves the definitive orbit determination estimation as well as the propagation accuracy and therefore spacecraft acquisition. Next, using the definitive TLE-based solution, raw GPS measurements are introduced into the filter where the combined measurement types allow the GPS measurements to be subsequently calibrated with respect to an unknown timing bias. These analyses provide a more accurate state estimation and prediction of cubesats during early orbit operations. Additionally, these techniques showcase methods for TLE-based state estimation and GPS calibration when other methods of tracking are unavailable.

Smith, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) V4.1 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by satellite at approximately 1-centimeter depth) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3-meters depth). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from GMAO S2S spring reanalyses that assimilate/withhold along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the big 2015 El Nino, the 2017 La Nina and the 2018 weak El Nino. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrade the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of gridded satellite sea surface salinity observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Indoor Ground Testing of a Small UAS Sense and Avoid Airborne Doppler Radar

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is researching prototype technologies needed to ensure safe integration of UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). Within the UTM Concept of Operations, UAS would be equipped with on-board Sense and Avoid (SAA) technology to continually monitor for manned and unmanned aircraft in its vicinity while operating beyond visual line of sight in uncontrolled airspace. To support this effort, a candidate commercially available 24.5 GHz Doppler radar was selected and evaluated to determine if the technology could reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of small UAS (sUAS). Indoor ground tests were conducted inside the NASA Langley Research Center’s Experimental Test Range (ETR) from a stationary platform to evaluate the Doppler radar performance characteristics and gain operational proficiency before the radar was authorized to transmit outdoors. A high speed linear rail system was developed for the radar evaluation and was shown to be an effective method to generate Doppler radar targets of known radar cross section. The accuracy of the range and velocity reported by the radar was shown to be dependent on the Kalman filter state variance parameter settings. Antenna measurements were collected with the radar installed both on and off a sUAS to quantify the relative antenna gain, beam width and side lobe levels of the radar’s Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array (MESA) antennas at boresight and extreme field of view pointing vectors. The relative antenna gain measured 2.6 dB lower at extreme field view angles compared to the boresight radiation pattern.

Szatkowski, George N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Mars Phoenix EDL Trajectory and Atmosphere Reconstruction Using NewSTEP

This document describes the trajectory and atmosphere reconstruction of the Mars Phoenix Entry, Descent, and Landing using the New Statistical Trajectory Estimation Program. The approach utilizes a Kalman filter to blend inertial measurement unit data with initial conditions and radar altimetry to obtain the inertial trajectory of the entry vehicle. The nominal aerodynamic database is then used in combination with the sensed accelerations to obtain estimates of the atmosphere-relative state. The reconstructed atmosphere pro le is then blended with pre-flight models to construct an estimate of the as-flown atmosphere.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture for Improved Atmospheric Reanalyses

Satellite soil moisture observations are assimilated into NASA's Global Earth Observing System using a weakly coupled land/atmosphere data assimilation system. Specifically, Advanced Scatterometer and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity soil moisture retrievals are assimilated with an Ensemble Kalman Filter into a system that uses the same model, atmospheric assimilation system (3DVar), and atmospheric observations as the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The first set of experiments investigate the impact of the soil moisture assimilation on the model states and fluxes within the cycling DA system. Comparison to independent ground-based observations from global networks of soil moisture, latent and sensible heating, and 2m temperature and specific humidity showed small, but positive, improvements in the global mean statistics. Additionally, in some regions, the soil moisture assimilation induced more substantial improvements. For all variables evaluated, the soil moisture assimilation improved the model at monthly to seasonal, rather than daily, time scales. Based on the above experiments, it is recommended that satellite soil moisture be assimilated into future reanalyses, including the follow-on to MERRA-2.

Draper, Clara↗
NASA NTRS2019

Design and Modeling of the Off-Axis Parabolic Deformable (OPD) Mirror Laboratory

Coronagraph-equipped direct imaging missions need an active wavefront control system to cancel out the optical aberrations that degrade the performance of the coronagraphs. A fast steering mirror is used to control Line-of-Sight (LoS) pointing error caused by the telescope jitter. In addition to controlling other low-order aberrations such as astigmatism and coma, high stroke, high actuator density deformable mirrors (DMs) are also used to control the electric field at the required high spatial frequencies. We are designing a testbed to verify a different deformable architecture, where the powered optic in the optical train are controllable and have lower actuator count compared to the existing DMs with flat nominal surfaces. This simplifies the packaging issue for space missions and reduces both cost and risk of having the entire coronagraph instrument's performance depending on one or two high-actuator count DMs. The testbed would also be capable of testing different low-order wavefront sensing algorithms, which focuses in the near-term on a new adaptive Kalman filtering and gradient decent method to estimate the harmonic LoS errors that affect space telescopes. In long run, we would test different machine learning techniques to estimate low-order aberrations and non-linear algorithms for digging the region of high contrast called the dark holes (DH).

Subedi, Hari↗
NASA NTRS2019

Verification of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis Using Rainfall Observations in Australia

Global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution soil moisture estimates are available with a mean latency of ~2.5 days from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. These estimates are based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Routine monitoring of the L4_SM system's assimilation diagnostics revealed occasionally large observation-minus-forecast Tb differences across eastern central Australia that resulted in large analysis increments (or adjustments) of the model forecast soil moisture. Because this region lacks in situ soil moisture measurements, we developed an alternative approach to assess the veracity of the soil moisture analysis increments in the L4_SM system. Using regional gauge-based precipitation data, we demonstrate that the L4_SM soil moisture increments are correlated with errors in the L4_SM precipitation forcing, suggesting that the SMAP Tb observations contribute valuable information to the L4_SM soil moisture estimates.

Reichle, R.↗