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Implications of z ~ 6 Quasar Proximity Zones for the Epoch of Reionization and Quasar Lifetimes

In this paper, we study quasar proximity zones in the redshift range $5.77\leqslant z\leqslant 6.54$ by homogeneously analyzing 34 medium-resolution spectra, encompassing both archival and newly obtained data, and exploiting recently updated systemic redshift and magnitude measurements. Whereas previous studies found strong evolution of proximity zone sizes with redshift and argued that this provides evidence for a rapidly evolving intergalactic medium (IGM) neutral fraction during reionization, we measure a much shallower trend $\propto {(1+z)}^{-1.44}$. We compare our measured proximity zone sizes to predictions from hydrodynamical simulations post-processed with one-dimensional radiative transfer and find good agreement between observations and theory, irrespective of the ionization state of the ambient IGM. This insensitivity to IGM ionization state has been previously noted, and results from the fact that the definition of proximity zone size as the first drop of the smoothed quasar spectrum below the 10% flux transmission level probes locations where the ionizing radiation from the quasar is an order of magnitude larger than the expected ultraviolet ionizing background that sets the neutral fraction of the IGM. Our analysis also uncovered three objects with exceptionally small proximity zones (two have ${R}_{p}\lt 1$ proper Mpc), which constitute outliers from the observed distribution and are challenging to explain with our radiative transfer simulations. Finally, we consider various explanations for their origin, such as strong absorption line systems associated with the quasar or patchy reionization, but find that the most compelling scenario is that these quasars have been shining for ≲10 5 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Polarization contributions to intermolecular interactions revisited with fragment electric-field response functions

The polarization energy in intermolecular interactions treated by self-consistent field electronic structure theory is often evaluated using a constraint that the atomic orbital (AO) to molecular orbital transformation is blocked by fragments. This approach is tied to AO basis sets, overestimates polarization energies in the overlapping regime, particularly in large AO basis sets, and lacks a useful complete basis set limit. These problems are addressed by the construction of polarization subspaces based on the responses of isolated fragments to weak electric fields. These subspaces are spanned by fragment electric-field response functions, which can capture effects up to the dipole (D), or quadrupole (DQ) level, or beyond. Schemes are presented for the creation of both non-orthogonal and orthogonal fragment subspaces, and the basis set convergence of the polarization energies computed using these spaces is assessed. Numerical calculations for the water dimer, water–Na{sup +}, water–Mg{sup 2+}, water–F{sup −}, and water–Cl{sup −} show that the non-orthogonal DQ model is very satisfactory, with small differences relative to the orthogonalized model. Additionally, we prove a fundamental difference between the polarization degrees of freedom in the fragment-blocked approaches and in constrained density schemes. Only the former are capable of properly prohibiting charge delocalization during polarization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative Analysis of Imaging and Measurements of Micrometer-Scale Fracture Aperture Fields Within a Heterogeneous Rock Using PET and X-ray CT

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of fracture apertures is essential for reliable characterization of flow and transport processes in fractured systems and for better understanding of physicochemical matrix–fracture interactions. Here, we propose and test two image-based methods, thereby extending the current experimental capabilities to characterize aperture size distribution in structurally heterogeneous geologic porous media noninvasively. The first approach utilizes an inversion method based on the dataset acquired from positron emission tomography (PET) and the second approach considers an extension of the classic missing attenuation technique that relies on clinical X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT). Independent sets of imaging experiments are conducted on a fractured basalt core with heterogeneous matrix properties and aperture distributions to compare the two methodologies. A repeat of each experiment is conducted to verify the proposed workflows. The performance of these two imaging techniques is systematically evaluated through the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio, minimum fracture size detectability, and measurement errors. While both approaches provide a reliable estimation of fracture aperture distributions, PET yields a signal-to-noise ratio that is substantially higher than the corresponding X-ray CT measurements. Furthermore, uncertainties of the aperture values for PET are considerably lower ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 15\%$) compared to those obtained from X-ray CT ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 29\%$), allowing for the detection of minimum aperture sizes of 20 $\mu$m with 70% confidence level. Finally, these approaches provide key experimental tools for better understanding dynamic hydromechanical fracture properties in geologic systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiation Dose Escalation in Esophageal Cancer Revisited: A Contemporary Analysis of the National Cancer Data Base, 2004 to 2012

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of radiation dose escalation on overall survival (OS) for patients with nonmetastatic esophageal cancer treated with concurrent radiation and chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: Patients diagnosed with stage I to III esophageal cancer treated from 2004 to 2012 were identified from the National Cancer Data Base. Patients who received concurrent radiation and chemotherapy with radiation doses of ≥50 Gy and did not undergo surgery were included. OS was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score matching. Results: A total of 6854 patients were included; 3821 (55.7%) received 50 to 50.4 Gy and 3033 (44.3%) received doses >50.4 Gy. Univariate analysis revealed no significant difference in OS between patients receiving 50 to 50.4 Gy and those receiving >50.4 Gy (P=.53). The dose analysis, binned as 50 to 50.4, 51 to 54, 55 to 60, and >60 Gy, revealed no appreciable difference in OS within any group compared with 50 to 50.4 Gy. Subgroup analyses investigating the effect of dose escalation by histologic type and in the setting of intensity modulated radiation therapy also failed to reveal a benefit. Propensity score matching confirmed the absence of a statistically significant difference in OS among the dose levels. The factors associated with improved OS on multivariable analysis included female sex, lower Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score, private insurance, cervical/upper esophagus location, squamous cell histologic type, lower T stage, and node-negative status (P<.01 for all analyses). Conclusions: In this large national cohort, dose escalation >50.4 Gy did not result in improved OS among patients with stage I to III esophageal cancer treated with definitive concurrent radiation and chemotherapy. These data suggest that despite advanced contemporary treatment techniques, OS for patients with esophageal cancer remains unaltered by escalation of radiation dose >50.4 Gy, consistent with the results of the INT-0123 trial. Furthermore, these data highlight that many radiation oncologists have not embraced the concept that dose escalation does not improve OS. Although local control, not investigated in the present study, might benefit from dose escalation, novel therapies are needed to improve the OS of patients with esophageal cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Identifying Sociomarkers of Pediatric Asthma Patients at Risk of Hospital Revisiting

ObjectiveAsthma is one of the most common chronic childhood diseases in the United States [2, 3]. In addition to its pervasiveness, pediatric asthma shows high sensitivity to the environment. Combining medical-social dataset with machine learning methods we demonstrate how socio-markers play an important role in identifying patients at risk of hospital revisits due to pediatric asthma within a year.IntroductionA socio-marker is a measurable indicator of social conditions where a patient is embedded in and exposed to, being analogous with a biomarker indicating the severity or presence of some disease state. Social factors are one of the most clinical health determinants [1], which play a critical role in explaining health outcomes. Socio-markers can help medical practitioners and researchers to reliably identify high-risk individuals in a timely manner.MethodsWe collected data from three different sources: pediatric asthma encounter records from Jan 1st, 2016 to Dec 31st, 2016 at a children’s hospital, the 2010 U.S census data and neighborhood quality survey data by Memphis Property Hub. After merging these datasets we examine the effect of social features in identifying the patients who visited the hospital more than once during the observation period. We only use the first time visit (3,678 cases) to avoid over-counting of the same patients. In addition to demographic features (age, gender, insurance type, and race (African American and White)), we incorporate the social features such as the proportion of individuals living below the federal poverty level, blight prevalence, neighborhood quality, neighborhood quality inequality, trash dumping presence, the broken window pervasiveness within the zip code area of patients’ residence are included.We then implemented a Support Vector Machine (SVM) based classification model using abovementioned 11 social features. The classification outcome is either patient visits the hospital only one-time (class 0) or revisits the hospital within a year (class 1). Among 3,678 unique patients in the dataset, only 823 pediatric patients revisited hospital with asthma. So, to overcome the class imbalance issue, we have used 823 patients’ data (randomly selected in 1,000 iterations) from each class. Further, to avoid overfitting and ensure generalizability, we divided the dataset as training, test, and validation with a proportion of 60%, 20%, and 20%, respectively. The reported test (5-folds cross-validation using training and testing data) and validation accuracy of the SVM method are averaged over 1,000 iterations to avoid sampling error and bias.ResultsThe proposed socio-marker model resulted in an average classification accuracy of 63.70% for the test set and 63.67 % for the validation set. Further, the average specificity (the total true negative cases divided by the sum of true negative and false positive) and sensitivity (the total number of true positive cases divided by the sum of positive predicted cases) is found to be 62.79% and 64.77%, respectively for the test set and 62.79% and 64.83%, respectively for the validation set. Results of this study suggest that socio-marker features that are not directly related to a patient’s medical conditions can still predict whether the patient will come back to the hospital within a year or not with approximately 64% accuracy.ConclusionsBringing the socio-marker features in the surveillance system may ease the burden of detecting the patients at risk of revisiting the hospital. The results should be interpreted with caution because we only used 12-month period of observation and the visit beyond the observation window is not considered. Also the patients may have visited different hospitals which are not captured in the data.References1. Booske BC, Athens JK, Kindig DA, Park H, Remington PL: Different perspectives for assigning weights to determinants of health. University of Wisconsin: Population Health Institute 2010.2. Subbarao P, Mandhane PJ, Sears MR: Asthma: epidemiology, etiology and risk factors. Canadian Medical Association Journal 2009, 181(9):E181-E190.3. Gold DR, Wright R: Population disparities in asthma. Annu Rev Public Health 2005, 26:89-113.

Shin, Eun Kyong↗

Active Thermochemical Tables: Enthalpies of Formation of Bromo- and Iodo-Methanes, Ethenes and Ethynes

Here, the thermochemistry of halocarbon species containing iodine and bromine is examined through an extensive interplay between new Feller–Peterson–Dixon (FPD) style composite methods and a detailed analysis of all available experimental and theoretical determinations using the thermochemical network that underlies the Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT). From the computational viewpoint, a slower convergence of the components of composite thermochemistry methods is observed relative to species that solely contain first row elements, leading to a higher computational expense for achieving comparable levels of accuracy. Potential systematic sources of computational uncertainty are investigated, and, not surprisingly, spin-orbit coupling is found to be a critical component, particularly for iodine containing molecular species. The ATcT analysis of available experimental and theoretical determinations indicates that prior theoretical determinations have significantly larger uncertainties than originally reported, particularly in cases where molecular spin-orbit effects were ignored. Accurate and reliable heats of formation are reported for 38 halogen containing systems, based on combining the current computations with previous experimental and theoretical work via the ATcT approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interval-Valued Rank in Finite Ordered Sets

We consider the concept of rank as a measure of the vertical levels and positions of elements of partially ordered sets (posets). We are motivated by the need for algorithmic measures on large, real-world hierarchically-structured data objects like the semantic hierarchies of ontolog- ical databases. These rarely satisfy the strong property of gradedness, which is required for traditional rank functions to exist. Representing such semantic hierarchies as finite, bounded posets, we recognize the duality of ordered structures to motivate rank functions which respect verticality both from the bottom and from the top. Our rank functions are thus interval-valued, and always exist, even for non-graded posets, providing order homomorphisms to an interval order on the interval-valued ranks. The concept of rank width arises naturally, allowing us to identify the poset region with point-valued width as its longest graded portion (which we call the “spindle”). A standard interval rank function is naturally motivated both in terms of its extremality and on pragmatic grounds. Its properties are examined, including the relation- ship to traditional grading and rank functions, and methods to assess comparisons of standard interval-valued ranks.

Joslyn, Cliff↗

Mortandad Canyon seismic modeling (Progress Report)

The goal of this project is to assess site amplification for LANL through modeling of site and topography effects. Such assessment is difficult due to the lack of data documenting site effects for large normal faulting earthquakes such as the Pajarito Fault System that was found to be governing the seismic hazard at LANL. LANL site is also characterized by unique geologic settings, a series of mesa at the edge of the huge volcanic complex of the Jemez caldera. The latter has produced a series of successive and intertwined deposits of volcanic flow and sedimentary layer. Such layering of material with different elastic properties is expected to create large amplification effects magnified further by the presence at the surface of tuff materials. In 2014, a seismic campaign was performed in the Mortandad Canyon with a network of sensors on and near a local mesa. That campaign was designed to provide experimental data to estimation and prediction of amplification and site effects at LANL. An analysis on the seismic noise records of that campaign shows evidence of amplification of the seismic amplitude for the stations on the top of the mesa. Our goal is to reproduce the effect observed (both retrieving the resonance frequencies and amplification levels). We also plan to test if amplification effects observed for seismic noise can be extended to shaking produced by earthquakes. We are using a 3D modeling tool based on the Spectral Element Method (SEM) that is a particular type of high-order finite element modeling. Two types of seismic sources will be considered: (1) earthquakes for purpose of seismic hazard evaluation, (2) ambient noise. We show 2 series of numerical computations: (1) seismic waves are generated by random sources to simulate ambient noise. (2) seismic waves are planar waves to simulate a distant earthquake. We plan in the future to model rupture scenario on the Pajarito Fault System.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantum Information for Fusion Energy Sciences (Final Technical Report)

The simulation of plasma dynamics is a critical area of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) due to it’s usefulness in predicting, controlling, and confining plasmas in the context of potential fusion reactors. The simulation of plasmas is a computationally difficult problem in both classical and quantum physics, motivating investigation into the potential of quantum computers to simulate these systems. This project took several concrete steps towards this goal by developing tools for improving the control, characterization, and calibration of quantum gates on a superconducting quantum computer, developing error suppression and mitigation tools to reduce errors on the quantum computer, and utilizing these advancements to simulate reduced models of plasma dynamics on the quantum computer. In order to efficiently simulate plasma physics, an optimal control method which synthesizes, directly at the pulse level, any quantum gate on qubit and qutrit systems was developed. Using four superconducting transmon quantum processors at Rigetti and LLNL, it was demonstrated that any arbitrary quantum gate on qubits and qutrits could be implemented with high fidelity, leading to a significantly reduced length of a gate sequence. A problem of interest in FES is the nonlinear optical process of laser pulse compression within a plasma. Since quantum physics is linear, simulating nonlinear operations is not naturally feasible on a quantum computer, however it is possible to simulated a quantized version of the nonlinear process. A quantization approach to convert nonlinear wave-wave interaction problems to Hamiltonian simulation problems was developed and demonstrated using two qubits on a Rigetti device. In this experiment, a number of error suppression and mitigation techniques were investigated to determine how best to utilize the finite quantum resources. This study provides an example of how plasma problems may be solved on near-term, noisy quantum computing platforms and identified a promising set of techniques. Building on the insights of these experiments, the investigation turned to linear electron-plasma wave physics. A connection was identified between a local one-dimensional lattice spin model and linear wave phenomena, allowing a plasma physics problem to be efficiently mapped to the quantum computer. In this framework, reflection and transmission of plasma waves at a sharp boundary was studied, as well as the propagation of waves through an inhomogeneous plasma medium. In addition to the suite of error suppression and mitigation techniques developed, this experiment introduced the use of a digital-analog gate scheme designed to efficiently simulate the plasma Hamiltonian. With hardware available at the conclusion of the project, simulation at the scale of 9 qubits and 15 timesteps (60 entangling layers) was achieved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PHISICS/RELAP5-3D RESULTS FOR EXERCISES II-1 AND II-2 OF THE OECD/NEA MHTGR-350 BENCHMARK

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Methods group currently leads the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) 350 benchmark. The benchmark consists of a set of lattice-depletion, steady-state, and transient problems that can be used by HTGR simulation groups to assess the performance of their code suites. The paper summarizes the results obtained for the first two transient exercises defined for Phase II of the benchmark. The Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for INL Code System (PHISICS), coupled with the INL system code RELAP5-3D, was used to generate the results for the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) (exercise II-1a) and Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) (exercise II-2) transients. These exercises require the time-dependent simulation of coupled neutronics and thermal-hydraulics phenomena, and utilize the steady-state solution previously obtained for exercise I-3 of Phase I. This paper also includes a comparison of the benchmark results obtained with a traditional system code “ring” model against a more detailed “block” model that include kinetics feedback on an individual block level and thermal feedbacks on a triangular sub-mesh. The higher spatial fidelity that can be obtained by the block model is illustrated with comparisons of the maximum fuel temperatures, especially in the case of natural convection conditions that dominate the DCC and PCC events. Differences up to 125 K (or 10%) were observed between the ring and block model predictions of the DCC transient, mostly due to the block model’s capability of tracking individual block decay powers and more detailed helium flow distributions. In general, the block model only required DCC and PCC calculation times twice as long as the ring models, and it therefore seems that the additional development and calculation time required for the block model could be worth the gain that can be obtained in the spatial resolution

Advanced Reactor Technologies↗

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Full data acquisition in Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy: Mapping dynamic electric phenomena in real space

Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) has provided deep insights into the role local electronic, ionic and electrochemical processes play on the global functionality of materials and devices, even down to the atomic scale. Conventional KPFM utilizes heterodyne detection and bias feedback to measure the contact potential difference (CPD) between tip and sample. This measurement paradigm, however, permits only partial recovery of the information encoded in bias- and time-dependent electrostatic interactions between the tip and sample and effectively down-samples the cantilever response to a single measurement of CPD per pixel. This level of detail is insufficient for electroactive materials, devices, or solid-liquid interfaces, where non-linear dielectrics are present or spurious electrostatic events are possible. Here, we simulate and experimentally validate a novel approach for spatially resolved KPFM capable of a full information transfer of the dynamic electric processes occurring between tip and sample. General acquisition mode, or G-Mode, adopts a big data approach utilising high speed detection, compression, and storage of the raw cantilever deflection signal in its entirety at high sampling rates (> 4 MHz), providing a permanent record of the tip trajectory. We develop a range of methodologies for analysing the resultant large multidimensional datasets involving classical, physics-based and information-based approaches. Physics-based analysis of G-Mode KPFM data recovers the parabolic bias dependence of the electrostatic force for each cycle of the excitation voltage, leading to a multidimensional dataset containing spatial and temporal dependence of the CPD and capacitance channels. We use multivariate statistical methods to reduce data volume and separate the complex multidimensional data sets into statistically significant components that can then be mapped onto separate physical mechanisms. Overall, G-Mode KPFM offers a new paradigm to study dynamic electric phenomena in electroactive interfaces as well as offer a promising approach to extend KPFM to solid-liquid interfaces.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Probability of Detection Study to Assess the Performance of Nondestructive Inspection Methods for Wind Turbine Blades.

Wind turbine blades pose a unique set of inspection challenges that span from very thick and attentive spar cap structures to porous bond lines, varying core material and a multitude of manufacturing defects of interest. The need for viable, accurate nondestructive inspection (NDI) technology becomes more important as the cost per blade, and lost revenue from downtime, grows. NDI methods must not only be able to contend with the challenges associated with inspecting extremely thick composite laminates and subsurface bond lines, but must also address new inspection requirements stemming from the growing understanding of blade structural aging phenomena. Under its Blade Reliability Collaborative program, Sandia Labs quantitatively assessed the performance of a wide range of NDI methods that are candidates for wind blade inspections. Custom wind turbine blade test specimens, containing engineered defects, were used to determine critical aspects of NDI performance including sensitivity, accuracy, repeatability, speed of inspection coverage, and ease of equipment deployment. The detection of fabrication defects helps enhance plant reliability and increase blade life while improved inspection of operating blades can result in efficient blade maintenance, facilitate repairs before critical damage levels are reached and minimize turbine downtime. The Sandia Wind Blade Flaw Detection Experiment was completed to evaluate different NDI methods that have demonstrated promise for interrogating wind blades for manufacturing flaws or in-service damage. These tests provided the Probability of Detection information needed to generate industry-wide performance curves that quantify: 1) how well current inspection techniques are able to reliably find flaws in wind turbine blades (industry baseline) and 2) the degree of improvements possible through integrating more advanced NDI techniques and procedures. _____________ S a n d i a N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r i e s i s a m u l t i m i s s i o n l a b o r a t o r y m a n a g e d a n d o p e r a t e d b y N a t i o n a l T e c h n o l o g y a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S o l u t i o n s o f S a n d i a , L L C , a w h o l l y o w n e d s u b s i d i a r y o f H o n e y w e l l I n t e r n a t i o n a l , I n c . , f o r t h e U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y ' s N a t i o n a l N u c l e a r S e c u r i t y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n u n d e r c o n t r a c t D E - N A 0 0 0 3 5 2 5 .

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probing electronic wave functions of sodium-doped clusters: Dyson orbitals, anisotropy parameters, and ionization cross-sections

We apply high-level ab initio methods to describe the electronic structure of small clusters of ammonia and dimethylether (DME) doped with sodium, which provide a model for solvated electrons. We investigate the effect of the solvent and cluster size on the electronic states. We consider both energies and properties, with a focus on the shape of the electronic wave function and the related experimental observables such as photoelectron angular distributions. The central quantity in modeling photoionization experiments is the Dyson orbital, which describes the difference between the initial N-electron and final (N-1)-electron states of a system. Dyson orbitals enter the expression of the photoelectron matrix element, which determines total and partial photoionization cross-sections. We compute Dyson orbitals for the Na(NH3)n and Na(DME)m clusters using correlated wave functions (obtained with equation-of-motion coupled-cluster model for electron attachment with single and double substitutions) and compare them with more approximate Hartree-Fock and Kohn-Sham orbitals. As a result, we also analyze the effect of correlation and basis sets on the shapes of Dyson orbitals and the experimental observables.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Electronic coarse graining enhances the predictive power of molecular simulation allowing challenges in water physics to be addressed

One key factor that limits the predictive power of molecular dynamics simulations is the accuracy and transferability of the input force field. Force fields are challenged by heterogeneous environments, where electronic responses give rise to biologically important forces such as many-body polarisation and dispersion. The importance of polarisation in the condensed phase was recognised early on, as described by Cochran in 1959 [Philosophical Magazine 4 (1959) 1082–1086] [32]. Currently in molecular simulation, dispersion forces are treated at the two-body level and in the dipole limit, although the importance of three-body terms in the condensed phase was demonstrated by Barker in the 1980s [Phys. Rev. Lett. 57 (1986) 230–233] [72]. One approach for treating both polarisation and dispersion on an equal basis is to coarse grain the electrons surrounding a molecular moiety to a single quantum harmonic oscillator (cf. Hirschfelder, Curtiss and Bird 1954 [The Molecular Theory of Gases and Liquids (1954)] [37]). The approach, when solved in strong coupling beyond the dipole limit, gives a description of long-range forces that includes two- and many-body terms to all orders. In the last decade, the tools necessary to implement the strong coupling limit have been developed, culminating in a transferable model of water with excellent predictive power across the phase diagram. Transferability arises since the environment automatically identifies the important long range interactions, rather than the modeler through a limited set of expressions. Here, we discuss the role of electronic coarse-graining in predictive multiscale materials modelling and describe the first implementation of the method in a general purpose molecular dynamics software: QDO-MD. - Highlights: • Electronic coarse graining unites many-body dispersion and polarisation beyond the dipole limit. • It consists of replacing the electrons of a molecule using a quantum harmonic oscillator, called a Quantum Drude Oscillator. • We present the first general implementation of Quantum Drude Oscillators in the molecular dynamics package QDO-MD. • We highlight the successful construction of a new, transferable molecular model of water: QDO-water. - Graphical abstract:.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗