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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

A machine learning framework for accurate and robust analysis of radiation detector pulses

The microscopic properties of atomic nuclei are used to study various scientific questions. They are essential for understanding the fundamental forces of nature and the chemical evolution of the universe. Detecting decay radiation from radioactive nuclei makes it possible to probe these fundamental nuclear properties. Detector waveform traces may contain additional information about the radiation. Generally, advanced signal processing techniques are needed to extract this additional information, often involving fitting the waveform with model response functions using non-linear least-squares optimization with second-order gradient methods. While this is a powerful technique, it is also computationally expensive, leading to slow processing time, which scales with the volume of data. To address this problem, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach that infers the characteristics of traces from a model detector response function. In particular, we are interested in classifying whether a single recorded trace consists of one or two pulse constituents and estimating the pulse parameters. Furthermore, our proposed ML method can precisely extract the pulses’ parameters, such as energy and timing information, and accurately classify the pulse multiplicity of a trace. Unlike non-learning-based approaches, our ML approach uses neural networks that are significantly faster at inference, as they do not require any optimization during this stage.

Curve fitting↗

Evaluating nonlocal heat transport in directly driven chromium spheres using x-ray spectroscopy

We report on experiments investigating heat transport in laser-generated plasmas using directly driven chromium spheres. The spheres are fielded at the OMEGA laser facility and are driven with laser intensities of 5×10 14 Wcm −2 . Plasma conditions in the corona and scattered light are measured experimentally and compared against predictions from two-dimensional (2D) radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using different heat transport models. Spectroscopic analysis of x-ray self-emission is used as an additional diagnostic. X-ray emission is integrated over a large region of the plasma, probing regions that are not observed by localized optical Thomson scattering. In particular, x-ray emission peaks near the plasma critical density, so emission from optically thin lines provides information on plasma conditions where nonlocal transport is most likely to be significant. Three common heat transport models are considered: local transport with flux limiters f = 0.15 and f = 0.03, and the nonlocal Schurtz–Nicolai–Busquet (SNB) model. Consistent with previous work, both the high-flux (f = 0.15) and SNB models show good agreement with experimentally measured plasma conditions in the corona despite overpredicting laser absorption, whereas the low-flux (f = 0.03) model fails to match any experimental data. Conditions inferred from x-ray self-emission line ratios support this conclusion during the period of laser peak power, although synthetic spectra for all models fail to match the experiment during the transient portions of the pulse. For these reasons, the low-flux model is again rejected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Redshift remapping and cosmic acceleration in dark-matter-dominated cosmological models

The standard relation between the cosmological redshift and cosmic scale factor underlies cosmological inference from virtually all kinds of cosmological observations, leading to the emergence of the LambdaCDM cosmological model. This relation is not a fundamental theory and thus observational determination of this function (redshift remapping) should be regarded as an insightful alternative to holding its standard form in analyses of cosmological data. We present non-parametric reconstructions of redshift remapping in dark-matter-dominated models and constraints on cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of all primary cosmological probes including the local measurement of the Hubble constant, Type Ia supernovae, baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO), Planck observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation (temperature power spectrum) and cosmic chronometers. The reconstructed redshift remapping points to an additional boost of redshift operating in late epoch of cosmic evolution, but affecting both low-redshift observations and the CMB. The model then predicts a significant difference between the actual Hubble constant, h=0.48±0.02, and its local determination, h obs =0.73±0.02. The ratio of these two values coincides closely with the maximum expansion rate inside voids formed in the corresponding open cosmological model with Ω m =0.87±0.03, whereas the actual value of the Hubble constant implies the age of the Universe that is compatible with the Planck LambdaCDM cosmology. The new dark-matter-dominated model with redshift remapping provides excellent fits to all data and eliminates recently reported tensions between the Planck LambdaCDM cosmology, the local determination of the Hubble constant and the BAO measurements from the Ly α forest of high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tractable minor-free generalization of planar zero-field Ising models

In this work, we present a new family of zero-field Ising models over N binary variables/spins obtained by consecutive 'gluing' of planar and O(1)-sized components and subsets of at most three vertices into a tree. The polynomial time algorithm of the dynamic programming type for solving exact inference (computing partition function) and exact sampling (generating i.i.d. samples) consists of sequential application of an efficient (for planar) or brute-force (for O(1)-sized) inference and sampling to the components as a black box. To illustrate the utility of the new family of tractable graphical models, we first build a polynomial algorithm for inference and sampling of zero-field Ising models over K 33 -minor-free topologies and over K 5 -minor-free topologies—both of which are extensions of the planar zero-field Ising models—which are neither genus- nor treewidth-bounded. Second, we empirically demonstrate an improvement in the approximation quality of the NP-hard problem of inference over the square-grid Ising model in a node-dependent nonzero 'magnetic' field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A test of alternative Caribbean plate relative motion models

The new NUVEL-1 data set for global relative plate motions is used here to discriminate between the two prevailing models for Caribbean plate motion. One model, by Jordan (1975), assumes that North America-Caribbean motion is reflected by the spreading rate inferred from magnetic anomalies at the Cayman Spreading Center and the azimuths of nearby transforms. The other model, by Sykes et al. (1982), uses rates and azimuths inferred from the geometry of the Lesser Antilles Wadati-Benioff zone. Overall, it is found that the data fit the Jordan geometry better, that the data used in global plate motion models are more suitable than rates and azimuths inferred from the geometry of the Wadati-Benioff zone for determining relative motions, and that incorporation of all relevant plate boundaries is essential.

Stein, Seth↗

PyApprox: Enabling efficient model analysis

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of scientific numerical models. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent the most popular methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. Simple interfaces are provided for the most commonly-used algorithms to limit a user’s need to tune the various hyper-parameters of each algorithm. However, more advanced work flows that require customization of hyper-parameters is also supported. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of different algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in ground water.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the pollution risk of a groundwater source field at western Laizhou Bay under seawater intrusion

Coastal areas have great significance for human living, economy and society development in the world. With the rapid increase of pressures from human activities and climate change, the safety of groundwater resource is under the threat of seawater intrusion in coastal areas. The area of Laizhou Bay is one of the most serious seawater intruded areas in China, since seawater intrusion phenomenon was firstly recognized in the middle of 1970s. This study assessed the pollution risk of a groundwater source filed of western Laizhou Bay area by inferring the probability distribution of groundwater Cl{sup −} concentration. The numerical model of seawater intrusion process is built by using SEAWAT4. The parameter uncertainty of this model is evaluated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and DREAM{sub (ZS)} is used as sampling algorithm. Then, the predictive distribution of Cl{sup -} concentration at groundwater source field is inferred by using the samples of model parameters obtained from MCMC. After that, the pollution risk of groundwater source filed is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup -} concentration. The results of model calibration and verification demonstrate that the DREAM{sub (ZS)} based MCMC is efficient and reliable to estimate model parameters under current observation. Under the condition of 95% confidence level, the groundwater source point will not be polluted by seawater intrusion in future five years (2015–2019). In addition, the 2.5% and 97.5% predictive quantiles show that the Cl{sup −} concentration of groundwater source field always vary between 175 mg/l and 200 mg/l. - Highlights: • The parameter uncertainty of seawater intrusion model is evaluated by MCMC. • Groundwater source field won’t be polluted by seawater intrusion in future 5 years. • The pollution risk is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup −} concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions

Abstract. Managing water resources in a complex adaptive natural–human system is a challenge due to the difficulty of modeling human behavior under uncertain risk perception. The interaction between human-engineered systems and natural processes needs to be modeled explicitly with an approach that can quantify the influence of incomplete/ambiguous information on decision-making processes. In this study, we two-way coupled an agent-based model (ABM) with a river-routing and reservoir management model (RiverWare) to address this challenge. The human decision-making processes is described in the ABM using Bayesian inference (BI) mapping joined with a cost–loss (CL) model (BC-ABM). Incorporating BI mapping into an ABM allows an agent's psychological thinking process to be specified by a cognitive map between decisions and relevant preceding factors that could affect decision-making. A risk perception parameter is used in the BI mapping to represent an agent's belief on the preceding factors. Integration of the CL model addresses an agent's behavior caused by changing socioeconomic conditions. We use the San Juan River basin in New Mexico, USA, to demonstrate the utility of this method. The calibrated BC-ABM–RiverWare model is shown to capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes. The results suggest that the proposed BC-ABM framework provides an improved representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs that do not take risk perception into account. Future studies will focus on modifying the BI mapping to consider direct agents' interactions, up-front cost of agent's decision, and upscaling the watershed ABM to the regional scale.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Knowledge representation requirements for model sharing between model-based reasoning and simulation in process flow domains

The paper examines the requirements for the reuse of computational models employed in model-based reasoning (MBR) to support automated inference about mechanisms. Areas in which the theory of MBR is not yet completely adequate for using the information that simulations can yield are identified, and recent work in these areas is reviewed. It is argued that using MBR along with simulations forces the use of specific fault models. Fault models are used so that a particular fault can be instantiated into the model and run. This in turn implies that the component specification language needs to be capable of encoding any fault that might need to be sensed or diagnosed. It also means that the simulation code must anticipate all these faults at the component level.

Throop, David R.↗

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗

Applications of a Venus thermospheric circulation model

A variety of Pioneer Venus observations suggest a global scale, day-to-night Venus thermospheric circulation. Model studies of the dynamics and energetics of the Venus thermosphere are presented in order to address new driving, mixing and cooling mechanisms for an improved model simulation. The adopted approach was to reexamine the circulation by first using a previous two dimensional code to quantify those physical processes which can be inferred from the Pioneer Venus observations. Specifically, the model was used to perform sensitivity studies to determine the degree to which eddy cooling, eddy or wave drag, eddy diffusion and 15 micrometer radiational cooling are necessary to bring the model temperature and composition fields into agreement with observations. Three EUV heating cases were isolated for study. Global temperature and composition fields in good agreement with Pioneer data were obtained. Large scale horizontal winds 220 m/s were found to be consistent with the observed cold nightside temperatures and dayside bulges of O, CO and CO2. Observed dayside temperatures were obtained by using a 7 to 19% EUV heating efficiency profile. The enhanced 15 micrometer cooling needed for thermal balance is obtained using the best rate coefficient available for atomic O collisional excitation of CO2(0,1,0). Eddy conduction was not found to be a viable cooling mechanism due to the weakened global circulation. The strong 15 micrometer damping and low EUV efficiency imply a very weak dependence of the general circulation to solar cycle variability. The NCAR terrestrial thermospheric general circulation model was adapted for Venus inputs using the above two dimensional model parameters, to give a three dimensional benchmark for future Venus modelling work.

Bougher, S. W.↗

The Crab Nebula and related supernova remnants; Proceedings of the Workshop, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, October 11, 12, 1984

Papers are presented on the Crab Nebula's composition, helium distribution, outer structure and jet, and evolution. Attention is given to line emission from supernova remnants and charge transfer reactions, a magnetohydrodynamic model of the Crab Nebula and its radiation, inferences made using data on the pulsed flux from the crab pulsar, a new interpretation of the crab pulsar X-ray interpulse radiation, and evolutionary models of the Crab Nebula's progenitor. Other topics include the evolution of the centimeter flux of 3C58 and the Crab Nebula, a search for a shock wave around the Crab Nebula, high resolution radio studies of the Crab Nebula, supernova shell structure, and the nature of the remnant 0540-693 and its implications for the study of crablike remnants. Papers are also presented on X-ray observations of: Crab-like remnants, the Crab Nebula, the Vela X region, W28, and 3C400.2. Other papers include the 50 millisecond pulsar in the Large Magellanic Cloud and the X-ray pulse emission mechanism, optical emission from the plerionic core of CTB 80, and one-arcminute resolution observations of W50.

Kafatos, M. C.↗

Asteroid families - Physical properties and evolution

Asteroid families are considered to be fragments from collisional destruction of precursor bodies. However, results available on the inferred mineralogy, size distributions, and spins of family members do not confirm the expectations of the traditional model. Only a handful of nearly 100 proposed families, most of them populous, have distributions of inferred mineralogies consistent with simple cosmochemical models for parent bodies. It is suggested that most catastrophic collisions may not result in observable families, but rather in a spray of smaller particles, thus accounting for the small number of confirmed and consistent families, despite evidence for extensive collisional evolution of asteroids.

Chapman, Clark R.↗

AK112: Full Waveform Inversion Tomography of Alaska Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Crustal, Mantle, and Slab Structure

We report a full waveform inversion tomography model of Alaska and the surrounding regions, inferring radially anisotropic shear and isotropic compressional wavespeeds by fitting complete waveforms from 120 regional earthquakes. Our multiscale approach inverted time–frequency phase misfits (maximum period of 100 s), starting with a minimum period of 40 s and ending at 20 s in 7 stages and 112 total iterations. The model (AK112) was evaluated by computing the misfits for 36 independent validation events. We find that misfit reductions were large and equal (∼55%) for both the inversion and validation data sets, providing confidence in the model. AK112 also provides much better waveform fits compared to other reported models for the region, including an isotropic version of itself, highlighting the importance of anisotropy. The model resolves known crustal, upper mantle, and slab structure to depths of 100 km with new detail: sedimentary basins in the Alaskan Shelf, Cook Inlet, and Colville basins, among others; discontinuous lithospheric structure across major terrane boundaries; and subducting slab geometry and back‐arc volcanic sources. In addition to tectonic interpretations, the model enables full waveform simulations for long‐period earthquake ground motions and source characterization (e.g., moment tensor and finite‐fault inversion).

Rodgers, Arthur [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Predicting Lightning Initiation using Deep Learning

Lightning occurrence presents safety challenges to people and property. The main challenge with lightning safety is that the majority of guidance is reactive. In other words, lightning has to have already occurred nearby before a person will respond and take shelter. Further, most injuries or fatalities occur as the storm approaches, or as it's moving away, when rainfall may not be present at the time of the flash. Thus, this project develops a physically-based deep learning model to produce lightning probabilities out to 15 minutes. The deep learning model combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture both the spatial and temporal evolution of storms to predict the probability that lightning initiation will occur in the next 15 minutes. The model combines radar reflectivity, correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity to inferred storm hydrometer type and precipitation phase, which aids in the identification of electrification processes. The model is trained with data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which is a near infrared sensor onboard the GOES-R series of satellites that measures optical brightness from lightning. This presentation will provide an overview of the project.

Andrew T White↗

Parsimonious models of in-host viral dynamics and immune response

Mathematical models of in-host viral dynamics and immune response are a vital tool for patient-specific estimation of the initial viral load, prediction of the course of an infection, etc. The COVID-19 pandemics has given impetus to the development of models with an ever-increasing degree of complexity. We show that one of the most popular models---the Target Cell Limited model---fails the identifiability test, i.e., its parameters cannot be uniquely inferred from readily available data such as viral load measurements. Here, we present a model that is both identifiable and parsimonious according to information criteria. Our model's predictions match both reported observations of COVID-19 patients and predictions of its more complex counterparts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗

Electrostatic emissions between electron gyroharmonics in the outer magnetosphere

Electrostatic emissions are often observed by spacecraft in the outer magnetosphere at frequencies between low electron gyroharmonics. The emissions include the well-known odd half-harmonic emissions as well as weaker emissions which occur near the electron plasma frequency. A scheme is constructed for classifying the emissions, and it is shown that a theoretical model which has been previously used to explain '3/2' emissions can be extended to the other classes of emissions. All of the emissions therefore appear to be generated by the same basic mechanism: an unstable electron plasma distribution consisting of cold electrons (below 100 eV) and hot loss cone electrons (about 1 keV). Each emission class is associated with a particular range of model parameters; the wide-band electric field data can thus be used to infer the density and temperature of the cold plasma component. The model predicts that gyroharmonic emissions near the plasma frequency require large cold plasma densities.

Hubbard, R. F.↗