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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

risk assessment↗

In-beam γ-ray spectroscopy of 32 Mg via direct reactions

Background: The nucleus 32 Mg (N=20 and Z=12) plays a central role in the so-called “island of inversion,” where in the ground states sd-shell neutrons are promoted to the fp-shell orbitals across the shell gap, resulting in the disappearance of the canonical neutron magic number N=20. Purpose: The primary goals of this work are to extend the level scheme of 32Mg, provide spin-parity assignments to excited states, and discuss the microscopic structure of each state through comparisons with theoretical calculations. Method: In-beam γ-ray spectroscopy of 32 Mg was performed using two direct-reaction probes: one-neutron (two-proton) knockout reactions on 33 Mg ( 34 Si). Final-state exclusive cross sections and parallel momentum distributions were extracted from the experimental data and compared with eikonal-based reaction model calculations combined with shell-model overlap functions. Results: Owing to the remarkable selectivity of the one-neutron and two-proton knockout reactions, a significantly updated level scheme for 32 Mg, which exhibits negative-parity intruder and positive-parity normal states, was constructed. The experimental results were confronted with four different nuclear structure models. Conclusions: In some of these models, different aspects of 32 Mg and the transition into the island of inversion are well described. However, unexplained discrepancies remain, and, even with the help of these state-of-the-art theoretical approaches, the structure of this key nucleus is not yet fully captured.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Miniature On-Board Angle of Attack Measurement System for Hypersonic Facilities

The most prevalent method of establishing model angle of attack (AoA) in hypersonic wind tunnel facilities is using an encoder in the model support system then calculating sting/balance deflections based on balance output. This method has been shown to be less accurate than on-board methods in subsonic and transonic facilities and preliminary indications, as compared to optical methods, show large discrepancies in a hypersonic facility as well. With improvements in Micro-Electro- Mechanical Systems (MEMS) accelerometer technology more accurate onboard AoA measurement systems are now available for the small models usually found in hypersonic research facilities.

Crawford, Bradley L.↗

The influence of large-scale motion on turbulent transport for confined coaxial jets

The existence of large-scale coherent structures in turbulent shear flows has been well documented in the literature. The importance of these structures in flow entrainment, momentum transport and mass transport in the shear layer has been suggested by several researchers. Comparisons between existing models and experimental data for shear flow in confined coaxial jets reinforce the necessity of further investigation of the large scale structures. These comparisons show the greatest discrepancy between prediction and actual results in the developing flow region where the large scales exist. It was also observed that the momentum transport rate comparisons were very bad. Finally, Schetz has reviewed mixing flows and concluded that large-scale structures were essential aspects of future modeling efforts.

Brondum, D. C.↗

Basin-Scale River Runoff Estimation from GRACE Gravity Satellites, Climate Models and In Situ Observations: a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

River runoff is estimated as a water budget residual using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage time series, ERA5 reanalysis data, and precipitation observations for January 2003 through December 2015 for the Obidos upstream drainage basin and for the entire Amazon basin. Estimated runoff based on the water budget agrees remarkably well with in situgauge observations at Obidos, especially at seasonal time scales, with nearly perfect phase agreementbut slightly larger seasonal amplitude. The discrepancy in the seasonal amplitude maybe attributed to underestimation of river gauge runoff during the wet season when water overflows the riverbanks. The ERA5 model appears to overestimate long-term mean evapotranspiration in the Amazon by ~2 cm/monthb ased on comparisons with precipitation and runoff observations. Using precipitation data based on satellites and gauge observations relative to gauge observations alone improved agreement between water budget runoff estimates and in situ runoff observations. Seasonal variations in ERA5 simulated runoff are about twice as large as those from in situobservations and show a large phase lag as well. Water budget based runoff for the entire Amazon (~ 7,200 km3averaged 29over the 13 yr period) is significantly larger than observed runoff (~5,700 km3) at notably larger than previous estimates for the entire Amazon. These differences may be partly related to submarine runoff from the Amazon basin that cannot be captured by surface gauges.

Jianli Chen↗

Assessing Cloud and Precipitation Properties on Temporal and Spatial Scales Using LASSO Simulations over ENA

Low clouds and precipitation representation remain a major source of uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESMs), particularly due to challenges in representing their sub-grid variability and scale-dependent sampling. This study evaluates the performance of preliminary simulations from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project over the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud fraction (CF), and surface precipitation simulated across closed-cell, open-cell, and transitional cloud regimes. Using LES (100 m horizontal grid spacing) driven by ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses, we assess the representativeness of ground-based point observations by analyzing their correspondence to model-resolved spatial and temporal means. Results suggest that observational sampling of at least 6 hours is required to achieve consistency with domain-scale averages, in particular for observations that exhibit pronounced sub-grid heterogeneity, such as precipitation. ERA5-forced simulations exhibit improved spatial coherence and agreement with domain-averaged quantities when compared to MERRA-2 runs, with performance discrepancies largest for convective cloud conditions due to differences in forcing fidelity and temporal resolution. These findings highlight the importance of regime-aware model evaluation strategies and potentially demonstrate how LES can inform observation-model comparison practices and the development of cloud and precipitation parameterizations in ESMs.

Liang, Jiakun [University of Hawai'i at Manoa] (OR↗

Developing Upscaling Approach for Swarming Hydraulic Fractures Observed at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site through Multiscale Simulations

We show that this work aims to address a challenge posed by recent observations of tightly spaced hydraulic fractures in core samples from the hydraulic fracturing test site (HFTS) in the Middle Wolfcamp Formation. Many fractures in retrieved cores have subfoot spacing, which is at odds with conventional models in which usually one hydraulic fracture is initiated per cluster. Models assuming a single fracture at each cluster, although a common practice, often predict excessive fracture propagation that is inconsistent with microseismic observation. Here, we aim to develop a numerical approach to effectively account for densely spaced hydraulic fractures in field-scale simulations. Because it is impractical to explicitly model all aforementioned fractures, we develop a new upscaling law that enables existing simulation tools to predict reservoir response to fracture swarms. The upscaling law is derived based on an energy equivalence argument and validated through multiscale simulations using a high-fidelity code, GEOS. The swarming fractures are first modeled with a spacing that is much smaller than the cluster spacing; these fractures are then approximated by an upscaled, single fracture based on the proposed upscaling law. The upscaled fracture is shown to successfully match the energy input rate and produce the total fracture aperture and average propagation length of the explicitly simulated swarm. Afterward, the upscaling approach is further implemented in 3D field-scale simulations and validated against the HFTS microseismic data of a horizontal well. Our results show that hydraulic fracture swarming can significantly affect fracture propagation behaviors compared with the propagation of single fractures as assumed by conventional modeling approaches. Under the considered situations, the conventional treatment yields fast propagation speed that far exceeds that indicated by the microseismic data. We also illustrate that this discrepancy can be reduced readily through the implementation of the upscaling law. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the fracture swarming effect in field-scale simulations and the efficacy of this approach to enable realistic predictions of reservoir responses to fracture swarms, without the need to model tightly spaced fractures individually.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Beta Testing of CFD Code for the Analysis of Combustion Systems

A preliminary version of OpenNCC was tested to assess its accuracy in generating steady-state temperature fields for combustion systems at atmospheric conditions using three-dimensional tetrahedral meshes. Meshes were generated from a CAD model of a single-element lean-direct injection combustor, and the latest version of OpenNCC was used to calculate combustor temperature fields. OpenNCC was shown to be capable of generating sustainable reacting flames using a tetrahedral mesh, and the subsequent results were compared to experimental results. While nonreacting flow results closely matched experimental results, a significant discrepancy was present between the code's reacting flow results and experimental results. When wide air circulation regions with high velocities were present in the model, this appeared to create inaccurately high temperature fields. Conversely, low recirculation velocities caused low temperature profiles. These observations will aid in future modification of OpenNCC reacting flow input parameters to improve the accuracy of calculated temperature fields.

Temperature↗

Influence of gravity field uncertainties on the results from POGO and Magsat geomagnetic surveys

Errors in the gravity models used in satellite position calculations are examined as a possible source of the 0 to 100% variance found between POGO and Magsat magnetic data and the extrapolations of aerial magnetic survey data to satellite heights. For POGO data obtained over the New York Bight region using a relatively poor gravity field (a hybrid spherical harmonic model of degree 7 and order 6 with three higher order resonance terms), the magnitude of the error in the satellite height component is found to be sufficient to account for the amplitude of the discrepancy, however the frequency of the quasi-periodic orbital error is too large to explain the localized nature of the differences. For the case of the Magsat satellite, in which a more accurate gravity model was used, it is found that a 30 mgal gravitational anomaly distributed over a 5 x 5 deg area will produce insufficiently large position errors to account for the variations. The agreement between the two sets of satellite data in the New York Bight region suggests either a consistent error in satellite measurements, or problems with the reduction and processing of the aeromagnetic data.

Taylor, P. T.↗

Characterization of Titan Entry Radiative Heating in the Low Density Electric Arc Shock Tube

Prediction of aftbody radiative heating for Dragonfly’s entry at Titan requires accurate models to inform the design of its thermal protection systems. Previously reported investigations of shock layer aftbody radiation in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames Research Center focused on the lower altitude/higher density part of the trajectory. This paper presents the first optical emission spectroscopy measurements of an ongoing test series in the new aluminum Low Density Shock Tube (LDST), recently installed at EAST, focusing on the radiative heating characterization through the higher altitude portion of Dragonfly’s entry path. Experimental data collected at a fill pressure of 0.1 Torr and shock velocities between 5.2 and 6.2 km/s show favorable agreement to similar conditions previously tested in the 4" High-Velocity Shock Tube, as well as improvements in the signal to noise ratio and available test time. Simulations employing DPLR and NEQAIR underpredict the experimental radiance, with increasing discrepancy from the NIR towards the UV wavelength range, thus motivating further efforts in improving the current non-Boltzmann model for the CN molecule.

A Fagnani↗

Non-isotropic turbulence effects on spray combustion

A numerical model for the prediction of local properties of statistically stationary spray-combusting flows is evaluated by comparison with experimental data. To appraise the relative performance of turbulence models, computations were carried out by the k-epsilon model and the algebraic stress model. The present numerical results show the qualitative agreement with experimental data. In terms of overall local flow properties, the algebraic stress model improves a degree of conformity to the experimental data due to its ability to introduce the nonisotropic turbulence effects. Two swirl numbers are considered to investigate the influence of swirl on the droplet evaporation and trajectories, and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions in flow properties. It is found that the large swirl produces a higher evaporationn rate, and more intensive turbulent mixing and burning. The discrepancies observed in the results are attributed mainly to uncertainties in the initial spray size and velocity distributions, the droplet/wall impingement interaction, the combustion model with the fast chemistry and the turbulence models dealing with the strong streamline curvature and complex interactions between the dispersed droplets and the continuous gas-phase flows.

Kim, Y. M.↗

Charge and energy dependence of the residence time of cosmic ray nuclei below 15 GeV/nucleon

The relative abundance of nuclear species measured in cosmic rays at Earth has often been interpreted with the simple leaky box model. For this model to be consistent an essential requirement is that the escape length does not depend on the nuclear species. The discrepancy between escape length values derived from iron secondaries and from the B/C ratio was identified by Garcia-Munoz and his co-workers using a large amount of experimental data. Ormes and Protheroe found a similar trend in the HEAO data although they questioned its significance against uncertainties. They also showed that the change in the B/C ratio values implies a decrease of the residence time of cosmic rays at low energies in conflict with the diffusive convective picture. These conclusions crucially depend on the partial cross section values and their uncertainties. Recently new accurate cross sections of key importance for propagation calculations have been measured. Their statistical uncertainties are often better than 4% and their values significantly different from those previously accepted. Here, these new cross sections are used to compare the observed B/C+O and (Sc to Cr)/Fe ratio to those predicted with the simple leaky box model.

Soutoul, A.↗

Data-Driven Radiative Hydrodynamic Modeling of the 2014 March 29 X1.0 Solar Flare

Spectroscopic observations of solar flares provide critical diagnostics of the physical conditions in the flaring atmosphere. Some key features in observed spectra have not yet been accounted for in existing flare models. Here we report a data-driven simulation of the well-observed X1.0 flare on 2014 March 29 that can reconcile some well-known spectral discrepancies. We analyzed spectra of the flaring region from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in Mg II hk, the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectropolarimeter at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DSTIBIS) in H(alpha) 6563A and Ca II 8542A, and the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscope Imager (RHESSI) in hard X-rays. We constructed a multithreaded flare loop model and used the electron flux inferred from RHESSI data as the input to the radiative hydrodynamic code RADYN to simulate the atmospheric response. We then synthesized various chromospheric emission lines and compared them with the IRIS and IBIS observations. In general, the synthetic intensities agree with the observed ones, especially near the northern footpoint of the flare. The simulated Mg II line profile has narrower wings than the observed one. This discrepancy can be reduced by using a higher microturbulent velocity (27 km/s) in a narrow chromospheric layer. In addition, we found that an increase of electron density in the upper chromosphere within a narrow height range of approx. 800 km below the transition region can turn the simulated Mg II line core into emission and thus reproduce the single peaked profile, which is a common feature in all IRIS flares.

Da Costa, Fatima Rubio↗

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Gaffen, Dian J.↗

High frequency impedance characteristics of a tunable microplasma device

Computational studies on high frequency impedance characteristics of a microplasma device are reported. While microplasma is ignited using a primary excitation signal, frequency response of plasma impedance is determined by a secondary high frequency probe signal with significantly lower voltage amplitude such that it does not influence the plasma parameters. Here, the computational model utilizing the drift–diffusion approximation is first validated by comparing with experimental data for microplasmas ignited at pressures ranging from 1 to 5 Torr. In spite of quantitative discrepancies, good overall agreement is obtained between the measured frequency response of impedance of the discharge. Comparisons are also presented for various plasma parameters including mean electron number density, sheath thickness, mean electron temperature, and collision frequency that were inferred from the impedance measurements. The computational model is then used to perform simulations of near-atmospheric pressure microplasmas with the probe signal frequency ranging from 3 to 20 GHz. The simulations demonstrate the presence of a resonance frequency at which the impedance vanishes. More importantly, it is shown that this resonant frequency can be tuned effectively by suitably modifying the operating parameters (gap size, pressure, and excitation voltage). The simulated impedance characteristics are used to determine the effective plasma inductance and capacitance using a non-linear fitting approach, thereby showing the dependence of these electrical parameters on the plasma operating conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Chandra Contaminant Migration Model

High volatility cleans OBFs and low volatility produces a high build-up at OBF centers; only a narrow (factor of 2 or less) volatility range produces the observed spatial pattern. Simulations predict less accumulation above outer S-array CCDs; this may explain, in part, gratings/imaging C/MnL discrepancies. Simulations produce a change in center accumulation due solely to DH heater ON/OFF temperature change; but a 2nd contaminant and perhaps a change in source rate is also required. Emissivity E may depend on thickness; another model parameter. Additional physics, e.g., surface migration, is not warranted at this time. At t approx. 14 yrs, model produced 0.22 grams of contaminant, 0.085 grams remaining within ACIS cavity; 7 percent (6mg) on OBFs.

Swartz, Douglas A.↗

Aerothermodynamic Calculations on X-34 at Mach 6 Wind Tunnel Conditions

The effects of Reynolds number and turbulence on surface heat-transfer rates are numerically investigated for a 0.015 scale X-34 vehicle at wind tunnel conditions. Laminar heating rates, non-dimensionalized by Fay-Riddell stagnation heating, do not change appreciably with an order of magnitude variation in Reynolds number. Modeling a turbulent versus laminar boundary layer at the same Reynolds number increases the windside heating by a factor of four, portions on the leeside by a factor of two, and causes a 30 percent increase in wing leading edge heating. A discrepancy between laminar and turbulent heating trends on the windside centerline is explained by the presence of attached windside vortices in the laminar solutions, structures that are inhibited by the turbulence modeling.

Wood, William A.↗