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DOE OSTI2024

The kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a human challenge study

Studying the early events that occur after viral infection in humans is difficult unless one intentionally infects volunteers in a human challenge study. Here, we use data about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in such a study in combination with mathematical modeling to gain insights into the relationship between the amount of virus in the upper respiratory tract and the immune response it generates. We propose a set of dynamic models of increasing complexity to dissect the roles of target cell limitation, innate immunity, and adaptive immunity in determining the observed viral kinetics. We introduce an approach for modeling the effect of humoral immunity that describes a decline in infectious virus after immune activation. We fit our models to viral load and infectious titer data from all the untreated infected participants in the study simultaneously. We found that a power-law with a power h < 1 describes the relationship between infectious virus and viral load. Viral replication at the early stage of infection is rapid, with a doubling time of ~2 h for viral RNA and ~3 h for infectious virus. We estimate that adaptive immunity is initiated ~7 to 10 d postinfection and appears to contribute to a multiphasic viral decline experienced by some participants; the viral rebound experienced by other participants is consistent with a decline in the interferon response. Altogether, we quantified the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, shedding light on the early dynamics of the virus and the potential role of innate and adaptive immunity in promoting viral decline during infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling active region transient brightenings observed with X-ray telescope as multi-stranded loops

Strong evidence exists that coronal loops as observed in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays may not be monolithic isotropic structures, but can often be more accurately modeled as bundles of independent strands. Modeling the observed active region transient brightenings (ARTBs) within this framework allows for the exploration of the energetic ramifications and characteristics of these stratified structures. Here we present a simple method of detecting and modeling ARTBs observed with the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as groups of zero-dimensional strands, which allows us to probe parameter space to better understand the spatial and temporal dependence of strand heating in impulsively heated loops. This partially automated method can be used to analyze a large number of observations to gain a statistical insight into the parameters of coronal structures, including the number of heating events required in a given model to fit the observations. In this article, we present the methodology and demonstrate its use in detecting and modeling ARTBs in a sample data set from Hinode/XRT. These initial results show that, in general, multiple heating events are necessary to reproduce observed ARTBs, but the spatial dependence of these heating events cannot yet be established.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Fitting FFT-derived spectra: Theory, tool, and application to solar radio spike decomposition

Spectra derived from fast Fourier transform (FFT) analysis of time-domain data intrinsically contain statistical fluctuations whose distribution depends on the number of accumulated spectra contributing to a measurement. The tail of this distribution, which is essential for separating the true signal from the statistical fluctuations, deviates noticeably from the normal distribution for a finite number of accumulations. In this paper, we develop a theory to properly account for the statistical fluctuations when fitting a model to a given accumulated spectrum. The method is implemented in software for the purpose of automatically fitting a large body of such FFT-derived spectra. We apply this tool to analyze a portion of a dense cluster of spikes recorded by our FASR Subsystem Testbed instrument during a record-breaking event that occurred on 2006 December 6. The outcome of this analysis is briefly discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Battery Performance, Thermal, and Life Modeling for Southern California Edison (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

The objective of this project is to develop battery performance models, thermal models and life models for SCE to use in simulation and analysis of grid services involving energy storage. NREL will fit the models to three separate chemistries using test data provided by SCE. The dataset for each chemistry will include electrical, thermal and aging response to different temperatures and cycling conditions, measured under a variety of cell-level and module-level experiments described in SCE test protocol documents. Once tuned to a test dataset, the battery system model software will provide predictions of battery energy and power loss, and thus cycle and calendar life, for any energy storage grid service power profile of interest to SCE. The automated battery life modeling and simulation tool can also be applied to any other grid battery systems as long as necessary input data is available to accelerate battery model development and battery lifetime analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Using the Tilted flat-ΛCDM and the Untilted Non-flat ΛCDM Inflation Models to Measure Cosmological Parameters from a Compilation of Observational Data

We use the physically consistent tilted spatially flat and untilted non-flat ΛCDM inflation models to constrain cosmological parameter values with the Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data and recent SNe Ia measurements, baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) data, growth rate observations, and Hubble parameter measurements. The most dramatic consequence of including the four non-CMB data sets is the significant strengthening of the evidence for non-flatness in the non-flat ΛCDM model, from 1.8σ for the CMB data alone to 5.1σ for the full data combination. The BAO data is the most powerful of the non-CMB data sets in more tightly constraining model-parameter values and in favoring a spatially closed universe in which spatial curvature contributes about a percent to the current cosmological energy budget. The untilted non-flat ΛCDM model better fits the large-angle CMB temperature anisotropy angular spectrum and is more consistent with the Dark Energy Survey constraints on the current value of the rms amplitude of mass fluctuations (σ 8 ) as a function of the current value of the nonrelativistic matter-density parameter (Ω m ) but does not provide as good a fit to the smaller-angle CMB temperature anisotropy data, as does the tilted flat-ΛCDM model. Some measured cosmological parameter values differ significantly between the two models, including the reionization optical depth and the baryonic matter density parameter, both of whose 2σ ranges (in the two models) are disjointed or almost so.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of MIR-18 results for physical and biological dosimetry: radiation shielding effectiveness in LEO

We compare models of radiation transport and biological response to physical and biological dosimetry results from astronauts on the Mir space station. Transport models are shown to be in good agreement with physical measurements and indicate that the ratio of equivalent dose from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) to protons is about 3/2:1 and that this ratio will increase for exposures to internal organs. Two biological response models are used to compare to the Mir biodosimetry for chromosome aberration in lymphocyte cells; a track-structure model and the linear-quadratic model with linear energy transfer (LET) dependent weighting coefficients. These models are fit to in vitro data for aberration formation in human lymphocytes by photons and charged particles. Both models are found to be in reasonable agreement with data for aberrations in lymphocytes of Mir crew members: however there are differences between the use of LET dependent weighting factors and track structure models for assigning radiation quality factors. The major difference in the models is the increased effectiveness predicted by the track model for low charge and energy ions with LET near 10 keV/micrometers. The results of our calculations indicate that aluminum shielding, although providing important mitigation of the effects of trapped radiation, provides no protective effect from the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) in low-earth orbit (LEO) using either equivalent dose or the number of chromosome aberrations as a measure until about 100 g/cm 2 of material is used.

Flight Experiment↗

NASA NTRS2010

Single Event Test Methodologies and System Error Rate Analysis for Triple Modular Redundant Field Programmable Gate Arrays

We present a test methodology for estimating system error rates of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) mitigated with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR). The test methodology is founded in a mathematical model, which is also presented. Accelerator data from 90 nm Xilins Military/Aerospace grade FPGA are shown to fit the model. Fault injection (FI) results are discussed and related to the test data. Design implementation and the corresponding impact of multiple bit upset (MBU) are also discussed.

error rate calculations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining Experimental and Theoretical Techniques to Gain an Atomic Level Understanding of the Defect Binding Mechanism in Hard Carbon Anodes for Sodium Ion Batteries

Sodium ion batteries (NIBs) are an attractive alternative to lithium–ion batteries in applications that require large–scale energy storage due to sodium's high natural abundance and low cost. Hard carbon (HC) is the most promising anode material for NIBs; however, there is a knowledge gap in the understanding of the sodium binding mechanism that prevents a rational design of HC. This study tunes sucrose–derived HC via synthesis temperature then evaluates the structural, physical, and electrochemical properties. Neutron total scattering is used to generate structural models by fitting pair distribution functions (PDF) with a combination of molecular dynamics and reverse Monte Carlo methods. From this model, the number and type of structural features are identified, quantified, and correlated to the galvanostatic charge/discharge. A method of PDF “fingerprinting” binding sites using Na probe atoms is developed and analyzing these PDFs reveals an atomistic view of ion binding sites responsible for “defect” storage mechanisms. Combining these techniques results in an atomic–level study that provides a big picture of the Na–binding mechanism in NIBs, which allows for more precise tuning of the structure–property relationships in the future. Finally, the methodologies developed will also enable new strategies for the analysis of amorphous functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2015

AN IMAGE-PLANE ALGORITHM FOR JWST'S NON-REDUNDANT APERTURE MASK DATA

The high angular resolution technique of non-redundant masking (NRM) or aperture masking interferometry (AMI) has yielded images of faint protoplanetary companions of nearby stars from the ground. AMI on James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)'s Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS) has a lower thermal background than ground-based facilities and does not suffer from atmospheric instability. NIRISS AMI images are likely to have 90%-95% Strehl ratio between 2.77 and 4.8 μm. In this paper we quantify factors that limit the raw point source contrast of JWST NRM. We develop an analytic model of the NRM point spread function which includes different optical path delays (pistons) between mask holes and fit the model parameters with image plane data. It enables a straightforward way to exclude bad pixels, is suited to limited fields of view, and can incorporate effects such as intra-pixel sensitivity variations. We simulate various sources of noise to estimate their effect on the standard deviation of closure phase, σ{sub CP} (a proxy for binary point source contrast). If σ{sub CP} < 10{sup –4} radians—a contrast ratio of 10 mag—young accreting gas giant planets (e.g., in the nearby Taurus star-forming region) could be imaged with JWST NIRISS. We show the feasibility of using NIRISS' NRM with the sub-Nyquist sampled F277W, which would enable some exoplanet chemistry characterization. In the presence of small piston errors, the dominant sources of closure phase error (depending on pixel sampling, and filter bandwidth) are flat field errors and unmodeled variations in intra-pixel sensitivity. The in-flight stability of NIRISS will determine how well these errors can be calibrated by observing a point source. Our results help develop efficient observing strategies for space-based NRM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dynamics of the diffusive DM-DE interaction – Dynamical system approach

We discuss dynamics of a model of an energy transfer between dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM) . The energy transfer is determined by a non-conservation law resulting from a diffusion of dark matter in an environment of dark energy. The relativistic invariance defines the diffusion in a unique way. The system can contain baryonic matter and radiation which do not interact with the dark sector. We treat the Friedman equation and the conservation laws as a closed dynamical system. The dynamics of the model is examined using the dynamical systems methods for demonstration how solutions depend on initial conditions. We also fit the model parameters using astronomical observation: SNIa, H ( z ), BAO and Alcock-Paczynski test. We show that the model with diffuse DM-DE is consistent with the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the sharp deuterium release from beryllium co-deposits

Many studies have shown a sharp deuterium desorption from beryllium at around 450 K. In an attempt to model this sharp release, a new model was developed, describing the formation and decomposition of beryllium deuteride. Such a model was found to reproduce the sharp desorption peak in the thermal desorption spectrum. Moreover, in contrast to other models, the new model was able to reproduce the constant deuterium desorption from beryllium held at a constant elevated temperature. Further, fitting the modeling results to experimental data allowed us to determine the deuterium solubility limit in beryllium, which indicated an endothermic formation of beryllium deuteride. New values of the deuterium surface recombination coefficient were also obtained, differing from the ones found in the literature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forward modeling approach to nuclear reaction cross sections: Applications in neutron inelastic scattering

The development of nuclear reaction models for the production of evaluated nuclear data has traditionally been performed by comparing measured cross sections with predictions from reaction model codes whose physical input parameters are adjusted to obtain the best agreement between measured and modeled results. To more directly probe reaction model inputs, this work introduces a forward modeling approach to experimental reaction cross-section determination, where the most important physical input parameters to reaction model calculations are obtained via 𝜒 2 minimization between measured and calculated observables. This was demonstrated using data collected by the Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) at the 88-inch cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a detection array consisting of organic liquid scintillators and high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors. Using a broad-spectrum neutron beam and a 99.98%-enriched 56 Fe target, GENESIS was used to perform a simultaneous measurement of 56 Fe 𝛾-ray production cross sections and secondary neutron energy and angle distributions. The results of the forward modeling approach to the determination of energy-differential 𝛾-ray production cross sections for the yrast 4 + → 2 + and 6 + → 4 + transitions, as well as eight other off-yrast transitions, were compared against those obtained using conventional techniques, and the results are in good agreement. In addition to discrete 𝛾-ray yield total scattered neutron energy-angular distributions as a function of incident neutron energy were also obtained using forward modeling and found to agree with evaluated data, with the exception of elastic scattering at small angles. The fitted reaction model parameters obtained through forward modeling were also used to calculate the cross section for the unobserved (𝑛, 2⁢𝑛) reaction; excellent agreement with the current evaluation was obtained, providing a validation of the predictive capabilities of the forward model approach. This work bridges the gap between nuclear data experiment and evaluation by providing a new means for extracting inelastic neutron-scattering cross sections and neutron-induced 𝛾-ray production data while directly probing reaction model physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Scalable Statistical Analysis of Gaussian Models for Petascale Spatiotemporal Data (Final Technical Report)

Gaussian process models for spatial and spatiotemporal data are ubiquitous in scientific and engineering applications. Likelihood-based methods for fitting such models, which includes all Bayesian methods, have desirable statistical properties and are thus the methods of choice when feasible. However, calculating the likelihood function even once can be a challenge for N irregularly sited observations from such a process, requiring O(N 2 ) memory and O(N 3 ) complexity. Thus, there is a need for fast and accurate likelihood approximation even for N on the order of 10 5 , not to mention the 10 15 implied by petascale data. The main objective of this research was to develop computational tools for the statistical analysis of massive spatiotemporal datasets based on Gaussian process models. Another important objective was the development of appropriate statistical models for specific spatiotemporal processes arising in the physical sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Whole Set of Accurate Sparse Interpretable Models

In data science applications, there are often many models that fit the data well. This phenomenon was called the Rashomon Effect by Leo Breiman. The set of good models is called the Rashomon Set, and the goal of this project is to locate, store, and study the Rashomon sets for classes of interpretable models, including decision trees and generalized additive models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mathematical modelling of solar ultraviolet radiation induced optical degradation in anodized aluminum

In the design of spacecraft for proper thermal balance, accurate information on the long-term optical behavior of the spacecraft outer skin materials is necessary. A phenomenological model for such behavior is given. The underlying principles are explained and some examples are given of the model's fit to actual measurements under simulated Earth-orbit conditions. Comments are given on the applicability of the model to materials testing and thermal modelling.

Ruley, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The electron diffusion coefficient in Jupiter's magnetosphere

A steady-state model of Jupiter's electron radiation belt is developed. The model includes injection from the solar wind, radial diffusion, energy degradation by synchrotron radiation, and absorption at Jupiter's surface. A diffusion coefficient of the form D sub RR/R sub J squared = k times R to the m-th power is assumed, and then observed data on synchrotron radiation are used to fit the model. The free parameters determined from this fit are m = 1.95 plus or minus 0.5, k = 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 x 10 to the 9th power per sec, and the magnetic moment of injected particles equals 770 plus or minus 300 MeV/G. The value of m shows quite clearly that the diffusion is not caused by magnetic pumping by a variable solar wind or by a fluctuating convection electric field. The process might be field line exchange driven by atmospheric-ionospheric winds; our diffusion coefficient has roughly the same radial dependence but is considerably smaller in magnitude than the upper bound diffusion coefficients recently suggested for this process by Brice and McDonough (1973) and Jacques and Davis (1972).

Birmingham, T.↗