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Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs)—i.e., software components that use machine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the contribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the otion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs)—a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing LEC safety analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

Ka-Band Link Study and Analysis for a Mars Hybrid RF/Optical Software Defined Radio

The integrated radio and optical communications (iROC) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid RF and optical communication subsystem for future deep space missions. The hybrid communications subsystem enables the advancement of optical communications while simultaneously mitigating the risk of infusion by combining an experimental optical transmitter and telescope with a reliable Ka-band RF transmitter and antenna. The iROC communications subsystem seeks to maximize the total data return over the course of a potential 2-year mission in Mars orbit beginning in 2021. Although optical communication by itself offers potential for greater data return over RF, the reliable Ka-band link is also being designed for high data return capability in this hybrid system. A daily analysis of the RF link budget over the 2-year span is performed to optimize and provide detailed estimates of the RF data return. In particular, the bandwidth dependence of these data return estimates is analyzed for candidate waveforms. In this effort, a data return modeling tool was created to analyze candidate RF modulation and coding schemes with respect to their spectral efficiency, amplifier output power back-off, required digital to analog conversion (DAC) sampling rates, and support by ground receivers. A set of RF waveforms is recommended for use on the iROC platform.

communication↗

Recent Successes and Future Plans for NASA's Space Communications and Navigation Testbed on the International Space Station

Flexible and extensible space communications architectures and technology are essential to enable future space exploration and science activities. NASA has championed the development of the Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) software defined radio (SDR) standard and the application of SDR technology to reduce the costs and risks of using SDRs for space missions, and has developed an on-orbit testbed to validate these capabilities. The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed (previously known as the Communications, Navigation, and Networking reConfigurable Testbed (CoNNeCT)) is advancing SDR, on-board networking, and navigation technologies by conducting space experiments aboard the International Space Station. During its first year(s) on-orbit, the SCaN Testbed has achieved considerable accomplishments to better understand SDRs and their applications. The SDR platforms and software waveforms on each SDR have over 1500 hours of operation and are performing as designed. The Ka-band SDR on the SCaN Testbed is NASAs first space Ka-band transceiver and is NASA's first Ka-band mission using the Space Network. This has provided exciting opportunities to operate at Ka-band and assist with on-orbit tests of NASA newest Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). During its first year, SCaN Testbed completed its first on-orbit SDR reconfigurations. SDR reconfigurations occur when implementing new waveforms on an SDR. SDR reconfigurations allow a radio to change minor parameters, such as data rate, or complete functionality. New waveforms which provide new capability and are reusable across different missions provide long term value for reconfigurable platforms such as SDRs. The STRS Standard provides guidelines for new waveform development by third parties. Waveform development by organizations other than the platform provider offers NASA the ability to develop waveforms itself and reduce its dependence and costs on the platform developer. Each of these new waveforms requires a waveform build environment for the particular SDR, helps assess the usefulness of the platform provider documentation, and exercises the objectives of STRS Standard and the SCaN Testbed. There is considerable interest in conducting experiments using the SCaN Testbed from NASA, academia, commercial companies, and other space agencies. There are approximately 25 experiments or activities supported by the project underway or in development, with more proposals ready, as time and funding allow, and new experiment solicitations available. NASA continues development of new waveforms and applications in communications, networking, and navigation, the first university experimenters are beginning waveform development, which will support the next generation of communications engineers, and international interest is beginning with space agency partners from European Space Agency (ESA) and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). This paper will provide an overview of the SCaN Testbed and discuss its recent accomplishments and experiment activities.Its recent successes in Ka-band operations, reception of the newest GPS signals, SDR reconfigurations, and STRS demonstration in space when combined with the future experiment portfolio have positioned the SCaN Testbed to enable future space communications and navigation capabilities for exploration and science.

SOFTWARE DEFINED RADIO↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Implicit and coupled fluid plasma solver with adaptive Cartesian mesh and its applications to non-equilibrium gas discharges

In this work, we present a new fluid plasma solver with adaptive Cartesian mesh (ACM) based on a full-Newton (nonlinear, implicit) scheme for non-equilibrium gas discharge plasma. The electrons and ions are described using drift-diffusion approximation coupled to Poisson equation for the electric field. The electron-energy transport equation is solved to account for electron thermal conductivity, Joule heating, and energy loss of electrons in collisions with neutral species. The rate of electron-induced ionization is a function of electron temperature and could also depend on electron density (important for plasma stratification). The ion and gas temperature are kept constant. The transport equations are discretized using a non-isothermal Scharfetter-Gummel scheme to resolve possible large temperature gradients in the sheaths. We demonstrate the new solver for simulations of direct current (DC) and radiofrequency (RF) discharges. The implicit treatment of the coupled equations allows using large time steps. The full-Newton method (FNM) enables fast nonlinear convergence at each time step, offering significantly improved simulation efficiency. We discuss the selection of time steps for solving different plasma problems. The new solver enables solving several problems we could not solve before with existing software: two- and three-dimensional structures of the entire DC discharges including cathode and anode regions, electric field reversals and double-layer formation, the normal cathode spot and an anode ring, moving striations in diffuse and constricted DC discharges, and standing striations in RF discharges. The developed FNM-ACM technique offers many benefits for tackling the disparity of gas discharge plasma systems' time scales and nonlinearity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development and Implementation of Non-Newtonian Rheology Into the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP)

One of the goals of this program was to develop the experimental and analytical/computational tools required to predict the flow of non-Newtonian fluids through the various system components of a propulsion system: pipes, valves, pumps etc. To achieve this goal we selected to augment the capabilities of NASA's Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) software. GFSSP is a general-purpose computer program designed to calculate steady state and transient pressure and flow distributions in a complex fluid network. While the current version of the GFSSP code is able to handle various systems components the implicit assumption in the code is that the fluids in the system are Newtonian. To extend the capability of the code to non-Newtonian fluids, such as silica gelled fuels and oxidizers, modifications to the momentum equations of the code have been performed. We have successfully implemented in GFSSP flow equations for fluids with power law behavior. The implementation of the power law fluid behavior into the GFSSP code depends on knowledge of the two fluid coefficients, n and K. The determination of these parameters for the silica gels used in this program was performed experimentally. The n and K parameters for silica water gels were determined experimentally at CFDRC's Special Projects Laboratory, with a constant shear rate capillary viscometer. Batches of 8:1 (by weight) water-silica gel were mixed using CFDRC s 10-gallon gelled propellant mixer. Prior to testing the gel was allowed to rest in the rheometer tank for at least twelve hours to ensure that the delicate structure of the gel had sufficient time to reform. During the tests silica gel was pressure fed and discharged through stainless steel pipes ranging from 1", to 36", in length and three diameters; 0.0237", 0.032", and 0.047". The data collected in these tests included pressure at tube entrance and volumetric flowrate. From these data the uncorrected shear rate, shear stress, residence time, and viscosity were evaluated using formulae for non-Newtonian, power law fluids. The maximum shear rates (corrected for entrance effects) obtained in the rheometer with the current setup were in the 150,000 to 170,000sec- range. GFSSP simulations were performed with a flow circuit simulating the capillary rheometer and using Power Law gel viscosity coefficients from the experimental data. The agreement between the experimental data and the simulated flow curves was within +/-4% given quality entrance effect data.

DiSalvo, Roberto↗

Statistical Modeling of Landscape Pattern and the Effects of Coarse Spatial Resolution

Analysis of classified satellite imagery was conducted to characterize errors in estimates of area based on coarse resolution satellite imagery which are due to distortions in sizes of small fragments, and to explore the feasibility of correcting for these errors using a statistical modeling approach. Sizes of bodies of open water on European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and fire scars on Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) imagery were measured using geographic information system (GIS) software. Statistical analysis of the smaller scars and ponds as observed with this imagery of relatively fine resolution demonstrated that the distribution of the sizes could be modeled by either of two types of statistical distributions-a power distribution related to fractal processes or a simple exponential distribution. A comparison of the size distribution of small burn scars as observed with Landsat with the distribution observed with the much coarser Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery revealed effects of coarse resolution, each of which were associated with a particular size range, and whose net effect accounted for the bias in total burn area due to coarse spatial resolution. Size dependent area correction procedures are therefore feasible. A statistical modeling approach to area estimation, based models of the underlying and observed size distributions of fragments in the scene, may lead to a procedure which requires little or no ancillary data.

Hlavka, C. A.↗

Enabling and Enhancing Space Mission Success and Reduction of Risk through the Application of an Integrated Data Architecture

The engineering phases of design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT and E) and subsequent planning, preparation, and operation (Ops) of space vehicles in a complex and distributed environment requires massive and continuous flows of information across the enterprise and across temporal stages of the vehicle lifecycle. The resulting capabilities at each subsequent stage depend in part on the capture, preparation, storage, and subsequent provision of information from prior stages. The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently designing a fleet of new vehicles that will replace the Space Shuttle and expand space operations and exploration capabilities. This includes the 2 stage human rated lift vehicle Ares 1 and its associated crew vehicle the Orion, and a service module; the heavy lift cargo vehicle, Ares 5, and an associated cargo stage known as the Earth Departure Stage; and a Lunar Lander vehicle that contains a descent stage, and ascent stage, and a habitation module. A variety of concurrent assorted ground operations infrastructure including software and facilities are also being developed, assorted technology and assembly designs and development for equipment such as EVA suits, life support systems, command and control technologies are also in the pipeline. The development is occurring in a distributed manner, with project deliverables being contributed by a large and diverse assortment of vendors and most space faring nations. Critical information about all of the components, software, and procedures must be shared during the DDT and E phases and then made readily available to the mission operations staff for access during the planning, preparation, and operations phases, and also need to be readily available for system to system interactions. The Constellation Data Systems Project (CxDS) is identifying the needs, and designing and deploying systems and processes to support these needs. This paper details the steps and processes that NASA is applying within the Constellation Program to manage this data and information, and to insure that the correct information is available, correctly annotated, and can be provisioned digitally to enhance response times, and support engineering analysis and anomaly resolution.

Brummett, Robert C.↗

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs) i.e., software components that use ma- chine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the con- tribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the notion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs) a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing L analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

SQMBox: Interfacing a semiempirical integral library to modular ab initio electronic structure enables new semiempirical methods

Ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure methods are usually implemented in separate software packages or use entirely different code paths. As a result, it can be time-consuming to transfer an established ab initio electronic structure scheme to a semiempirical Hamiltonian. Here we present an approach to unify ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure code paths based on a separation of the wavefunction ansatz and the needed matrix representations of operators. With this separation, the Hamiltonian can refer to either an ab initio or semiempirical treatment of the resulting integrals. We built a semiempirical integral library and interfaced it to the GPU-accelerated electronic structure code TeraChem. Equivalency between ab initio and semiempirical tight-binding Hamiltonian terms is assigned according to their dependence on the one-electron density matrix. The new library provides semiempirical equivalents of the Hamiltonian matrix and gradient intermediates, corresponding to those provided by the ab initio integral library. This enables the straightforward combination of semiempirical Hamiltonians with the full pre-existing ground and excited state functionality of the ab initio electronic structure code. We demonstrate the capability of this approach by combining the extended tight-binding method GFN1-xTB with both spin-restricted ensemble-referenced Kohn–Sham and complete active space methods. We also present a highly efficient GPU implementation of the semiempirical Mulliken-approximated Fock exchange. The additional computational cost for this term becomes negligible even on consumer-grade GPUs, enabling Mulliken-approximated exchange in tight-binding methods for essentially no additional cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Autonomous reconfigurable GPS/INS navigation and pointing system for rendezvous and docking

This paper describes the results of an integrated navigation and pointing system software development effort sponsored by the NASA MSFC through a SBIR Phase 2 Program. The integrated Global Positioning System (GPS)/Inertial Navigation System (INS) implements an autonomous navigation filter that is reconfigurable in real-time to accommodate mission contingencies. An onboard expert system monitors the spacecraft status and reconfigures the navigation filter accordingly, to optimize the system performance. The navigation filter is a multi-mode Kalman filter to estimate the spacecraft position, velocity, and attitude. Three different GPS-based attitude determination techniques, namely, velocity vector matching, attitude vector matching, and interferometric processing, are implemented to encompass different mission contingencies. The integrated GPS/INS navigation filter will use any of these techniques depending on the mission phase and the state of the sensors. The first technique, velocity vector matching, uses the GPS velocity measurement to estimate the INS velocity errors and exploits the correlation between INS velocity and attitude errors to estimate the attitude. The second technique, attitude vector matching, uses INS gyro measurements and GPS carrier phase (integrated Doppler) measurements during a spacecraft rotation maneuver to determine the attitude. Both of these techniques require only one GPS antenna onboard to determine the spacecraft attitude. The third technique, interferometric processing, requires use of multiple GPS antennae. In order to determine 3-axis body attitude, three GPS antennae (2 no-coplanor baselines) are required.

Upadhyay, Triveni N.↗

An Alternative for Emergency Preemption of Traffic Lights

An electronic communication-and-control system has been developed as a prototype of advanced means of automatically modifying the switching of traffic lights to give priority to emergency vehicles. This system could be used alternatively or in addition to other emergency traffic-light-preemption systems, including a variety of systems now in use as well as two proposed systems described in "Systems Would Preempt Traffic Lights for Emergency Vehicles" (NPO-30573), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 36. Unlike those prior systems that depend on detection of sounds and/or lights emitted by emergency vehicles, this system is not subject to severe range limitations. This system can be retrofitted into any pre-existing traffic-light-control system, without need to modify that system other than to make a minimal number of wire connections between the two systems. This system comprises several subsystems, including a transponder and interface circuitry on each emergency vehicle, a monitoring and control unit at each intersection equipped with traffic lights, and a wide-area two-way radio communication network that connects the emergency vehicles and intersection units. Computers in the various intersections and vehicle units run special-purpose software that implements the traffic- light-preemption scheme. The operations of the intersection and vehicle units are synchronized by use of Global Positioning System (GPS) timing signals. The transponder in each vehicle estimates its own position and velocity by use of GPS signals, deductive ("dead") reckoning, data from the onboard diagnostic (OBD) computer of the vehicle, and/or triangulation of beacon signals. When the operator of an emergency vehicle turns on its flashing lights and sirens in response to a request for an emergency response, the transponder unit goes into action, reading the OBD data to determine speed and acceleration, and reading and gathering further navigational data as described above. The position, velocity, and acceleration data are combined with vehicle-identification data in a prescribed format, and the resulting set of data is transmitted to the intersections within communication range of the transponder.

Foster, Conrad↗

Towards a decision support system for space flight operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The differences between the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the four increments of this vision. These increments include (1) the existing capabilities (2) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (3) uncertainty management and (4) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provides value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Ruszkowski, James↗

A Reference Ocean Surface Emission and Backscatter Model from Microwaves to Infrared

Satellite observations are vital for the initialization of Numerical Weather Prediction models, and very important for climate monitoring and prediction, as well as other applications such as hydrology and flood awareness prediction. Knowledge of radiative contributions from the Earth's surface is needed to sound the lower troposphere from space. The lack of a reference quality ocean emission and backscatter model is a major gap in our ability to provide absolute calibration of the satellite based observing system. Uncertainty in emissivity models is not well characterized and different models are used for different spectral bands, for active and passive instruments. An International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team was put together [4] to address these issues. The objectives of the team are to provide a reference model as a community software (i.e., documented and freely available code), that is maintained and supported, has traceable uncertainty estimations, and that enables new science from microwaves to infrared with bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) capability. We will present the model and its various components, discussing the choices between various parameterizations, building on the LOCEAN model of [2]. The model predictions will be evaluated at various frequencies, including comparisons to radiometric observations by SMAP, AMSR2 and GMI (e.g., [5]). We will discuss early model evaluation in the infrared and for active microwave sensors. Areas of ongoing research include improving the foam parametrization (coverage and emissivity) to provide consistent performances across frequencies, building on [1], and the azimuthal dependence of the active and passive signals. The model will be used to generate training data for fast models e.g., Fastem, [3], that are used in operational data assimilation and climate re-analysis.

Emmanuel Dinnat↗

An Open-Source Framework for the Computational Analysis and Design of Autothermal Chemical Processes

The main project object was to develop software tools for simulating non-equilibrium autothermal processes, improving the prospects for identifying and designing such systems. The project demonstrates the use of these tools to simulate autothermal pyrolysis, a process recently developed at the pilot-plant scale at Iowa State University. In such process, instead of externally heating a reactor to pro-vide the enthalpy of pyrolysis, sufficient oxygen in the form of air is introduced into the reactor to support partial oxidation of reactants and products with the exothermic energy released supporting endothermic pyrolysis reactions. A fluidized bed is used to assure good mixing of biomass and oxidant and provide an isothermal reaction environment. The amount of oxygen required depends upon the kind of biomass being pyrolyzed and parasitic heat losses from the reactor. For example, for woody biomass pyrolyzed under conditions that simulate adiabatic operation, equivalence ratios can be as low as 0.06, compared to 0.20 or higher for autothermal gasifiers. By removing the heat transfer bottleneck of conventional pyrolysis, operation in autothermal mode allowed a significant increase in reactor throughput process, approaching five times the throughput of the conventionally operated pyrolyzer. Different simulation strategies were considered and developed: a zero-dimensional chemistry model was used to verify the applicability of kinetic schemes to predict biomass fast pyrolysis in autothermal conditions. Conventional chemical reactor models such as the plug flow reactor and the partially stirred reactor were used to investigate the role of mixing in the fluidized bed pyrolyzer and to establish the impact of mixing time on the gas-phase reactions. A comprehensive multiphase computational fluid dynamics (mCFD) framework, including polydisperse granular phase modeling and detailed chemical kinetics was formulated and used to model the experimental setup for autothermal biomass fast pyrolysis at ISU. Multiphase CFD was also used to investigate the role of biomass feed positioning on the mixing of biomass in the pyrolizer. Finally, a reduced order model (ROM), suitable to be implemented in process simulators was obtained. Both the mCFD and the ROM were validated against experiments.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Parallel Genetic Algorithm for Automated Electronic Circuit Design

Parallelized versions of genetic algorithms (GAs) are popular primarily for three reasons: the GA is an inherently parallel algorithm, typical GA applications are very compute intensive, and powerful computing platforms, especially Beowulf-style computing clusters, are becoming more affordable and easier to implement. In addition, the low communication bandwidth required allows the use of inexpensive networking hardware such as standard office ethernet. In this paper we describe a parallel GA and its use in automated high-level circuit design. Genetic algorithms are a type of trial-and-error search technique that are guided by principles of Darwinian evolution. Just as the genetic material of two living organisms can intermix to produce offspring that are better adapted to their environment, GAs expose genetic material, frequently strings of 1s and Os, to the forces of artificial evolution: selection, mutation, recombination, etc. GAs start with a pool of randomly-generated candidate solutions which are then tested and scored with respect to their utility. Solutions are then bred by probabilistically selecting high quality parents and recombining their genetic representations to produce offspring solutions. Offspring are typically subjected to a small amount of random mutation. After a pool of offspring is produced, this process iterates until a satisfactory solution is found or an iteration limit is reached. Genetic algorithms have been applied to a wide variety of problems in many fields, including chemistry, biology, and many engineering disciplines. There are many styles of parallelism used in implementing parallel GAs. One such method is called the master-slave or processor farm approach. In this technique, slave nodes are used solely to compute fitness evaluations (the most time consuming part). The master processor collects fitness scores from the nodes and performs the genetic operators (selection, reproduction, variation, etc.). Because of dependency issues in the GA, it is possible to have idle processors. However, as long as the load at each processing node is similar, the processors are kept busy nearly all of the time. In applying GAs to circuit design, a suitable genetic representation 'is that of a circuit-construction program. We discuss one such circuit-construction programming language and show how evolution can generate useful analog circuit designs. This language has the desirable property that virtually all sets of combinations of primitives result in valid circuit graphs. Our system allows circuit size (number of devices), circuit topology, and device values to be evolved. Using a parallel genetic algorithm and circuit simulation software, we present experimental results as applied to three analog filter and two amplifier design tasks. For example, a figure shows an 85 dB amplifier design evolved by our system, and another figure shows the performance of that circuit (gain and frequency response). In all tasks, our system is able to generate circuits that achieve the target specifications.

Long, Jason D.↗

Suppression/Reversal of Natural Convection by Exploiting the Temperature/Composition Dependence of Magnetic Susceptibility

Natural convection, driven by temperature-or concentration gradients or both, is an inherent phenomenon during solidification of materials on Earth. This convection has practical consequences (e.g effecting macrosegregation) but also renders difficult the scientific examination of diffusive/conductive phenomena during solidification. It is possible to halt, or even reverse, natural convection by exploiting the variation (with temperature, for example) of the susceptibility of a material. If the material is placed in a vertical magnetic field gradient, a buoyancy force of magnetic origin arises and, at a critical field gradient, can balance the normal buoyancy forces to halt convection. At higher field gradients the convection can be reversed. The effect has been demonstrated in experiments at Marshall Space Flight Center where flow was measured by PIV in MnCl2 solution in a superconducting magnet. In auxiliary experiments the field in the magnet and the properties of the solution were measured. Computations of the natural convection, its halting and reversal, using the commercial software FLUENT were in good agreement with the measurements.

Seybert, C. D.↗

Transient Cold Flow Simulation of Fast Fluidized Bed Fuel Reactors for Chemical-Looping Combustion

Circulating fluidized bed in chemical-looping combustion (CLC) is a recent technology that provides great advantage for gas–solid interaction and efficiency. In order to obtain a thorough understanding of this technology and to assess its effectiveness for industrial scale deployment, numerical simulations are conducted. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are performed with dense discrete phase model (DDPM) to simulate the gas–solid interactions. CFD commercial software ansysfluent is used for the simulations. Two bed materials of different particle density and diameter, namely the molochite and Fe100, are used in studying the hydrodynamics and particle behavior in a fuel reactor corresponding to the experimental setup of Haider et al. (2016, “A Hydrodynamic Study of a Fast-Bed Dual Circulating Fluidized Bed for Chemical Looping Combustion,” Energy Technol., 4(10), pp. 1254–1262.) at Cranfield University in the UK. Both the simulations show satisfactory agreement with the experimental data for both the static pressure and volume fraction at various heights above the gas inlet in the reactor. It is found that an appropriate drag law should be used in the simulation depending on the particle size and flow conditions in order to obtain accurate results. Furthermore, the simulations demonstrate the ability of CFD/DDPM to accurately capture the physics of circulating fluidized bed-based CLC process at pilot scale which can be extended to industrial scale projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗