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An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development and modification of a digital program for final approach to landing

The development and implementation of a dynamic digital computer simulator which may be used to evaluate aircraft performance when operating under the control and guidance of various navigation, landing, and flight control systems are discussed. The digital computer program may be used to simulate and evaluate the relationships and interactions between various factors such as the microwave landing system, avionics receivers and onboard processors, aircraft aerodynamics, aircraft automatic control systems, control surfaces, and wind and other external effects. The models used to represent aircraft aerodynamics, control system and control surfaces; weather and wind effects; and the microwave landing system are described. Example results are presented for a simulation of a Boeing 737 using two sample control systems while subjected to various atmospheric conditions and microwave landing system errors. The limitations and performance capabilities of these control systems are discussed in terms of their ability to utilize the microwave landing system signal.

Duff, W. G.↗

Mathematical model of marine diesel engine simulator for a new methodology of self propulsion tests

As a vessel operates in the open seas, a marine diesel engine simulator whose engine rotation is controlled to transmit through propeller shaft is a new methodology for the self propulsion tests to track the fuel saving in a real time. Considering the circumstance, this paper presents the real time of marine diesel engine simulator system to track the real performance of a ship through a computer-simulated model. A mathematical model of marine diesel engine and the propeller are used in the simulation to estimate fuel rate, engine rotating speed, thrust and torque of the propeller thus achieve the target vessel’s speed. The input and output are a real time control system of fuel saving rate and propeller rotating speed representing the marine diesel engine characteristics. The self-propulsion tests in calm waters were conducted using a vessel model to validate the marine diesel engine simulator. The simulator then was used to evaluate the fuel saving by employing a new mathematical model of turbochargers for the marine diesel engine simulator. The control system developed will be beneficial for users as to analyze different condition of vessel’s speed to obtain better characteristics and hence optimize the fuel saving rate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas (Final Technical Report)

This documents is the final technical report for our grant entitled "Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas" that focused on developing path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) computer simulations. This techniques will be developed to study plasmas composed of heavier elements including iron and other third row elements. Equations of state (EOS) and transport properties will be derived in the regime of warm dense matter (WDM) and dense plasmas where existing first-principles methods cannot be applied. While standard density functional theory (DFT) has been used to accurately predict the structure of many solids and liquids up to temperatures on the order of 100,000 K, this method is not applicable at much higher temperature because the number of partially occupied electronic orbitals reaches intractably large numbers or the use of finite-temperature free energy functionals in orbital-free DFT introduces an uncontrolled approximation. Here we focus on PIMC methods that become more and more efficient with increasing temperatures and still include all electronic correlation effects. In this approach, electronic excitations increase the efficiency rather than reduce it. While it had commonly been assumed this method could only be applied to elements without core electrons, we showed that PIMC with free-particle nodes works well for first-row elements (PRL 108 (2012) 115502). Most recently, we extended the applicability range of all-electron PIMC to second-row elements by adopting localized nodal surfaces (PRL 115 (2015) 176403). To simulate third-row elements efficiently under WDM conditions, we propose a new method to remove core electrons by introducing pseudo-nodes. We explain our approach step by step and present preliminary results. We focus our method development on getting PIMC simulations of iron to work because of its fundamental importance for WDM and astrophysics. Then we move on to krypton and copper-doped beryllium, a ICF ablator material. We plan to continue working on key second-row material such as Na, Mg, MgO, Al, silica, and silicon-doped plastic ablators. Our collaborators at LLNL, will use our PIMC EOS data both as comparisons to existing semi-empirical, EOS-generating schemes, and as input for continuum radiation hydrodynamics simulations. We will establish an efficient pipeline from PIMC to macroscopic continuum studies of materials response. An emphasis will be placed on benchmarking such methods for plasmas of heavy elements at the very high temperatures (~100 eV) and low densities that are generated when Hohlraum radiation heats the ablator material in indirect drive laser experiments. Results from changes to the EOS will be of immeasurable importance to the designers at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and at other facilities. Starting with our EOS of Cu-doped Be, our second collaborator at LLE, will perform real-time simulations of laser fusion experiments at the Omega laser and at the NIF to determine how sensitive the compression path depends on the ablator EOS. Since our collaborator also has experience in performing orbital-free DFT calculations, we propose to compare predictions from this method with PIMC results. In joint publications, we plan to analyze the accuracy of different free-energy functionals in order to understand why existing orbital-free DFT calculations do not predict compression peaks along the shock Hugoniot curve that we see with PIMC. The peaks are caused by the ionization of various electron shells. Their accurate characterization is important to compare with experimental results. We will break new ground by developing PIMC techniques that can simulate iron and all other third row elements in the plasma and WDM regimes. We introduce the concept of pseudo-nodes for the efficient treatment of the core-electrons. The EOS and transport properties will be derived and published online in the form of a new WDM database. Our PIMC EOS calculations will benchmark and possibly replace semi-analytical EOS tables like QEOS or SESAME, which will impact the hydrocode simulation community and will affect the design of NIF targets. Our PIMC results will help to improve the accuracy of orbital-free DFT simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Shock and vibration technology with applications to electrical systems

A survey is presented of shock and vibration technology for electrical systems developed by the aerospace programs. The shock environment is surveyed along with new techniques for modeling, computer simulation, damping, and response analysis. Design techniques based on the use of analog computers, shock spectra, optimization, and nonlinear isolation are discussed. Shock mounting of rotors for performance and survival, and vibration isolation techniques are reviewed.

Eshleman, R. L.↗

Study of fuel cell on-site, integrated energy systems in residential/commercial applications

Three building applications were selected for a detailed study: a low rise apartment building; a retail store, and a hospital. Building design data were then specified for each application, based on the design and construction of typical, actual buildings. Finally, a computerized building loads analysis program was used to estimate hourly end use load profiles for each building. Conventional and fuel cell based energy systems were designed and simulated for each building in each location. Based on the results of a computer simulation of each energy system, levelized annual costs and annual energy consumptions were calculated for all systems.

Wakefield, R. A.↗

A jet controlled magnetic referenced attitude control system for spinning payloads

An attitude control system was designed permitting large angle acquisition and alignment of the principle axis of a spinning payload to within 1 degree of the earth's magnetic field. Signals from magnetometer and gyro sensors are fed to the control algorithm to generate commands for the jet thrusters. The algorithm contains a cross axis magnetometer signal to prevent a large angle magnetometer signal to prevent a large angle equilibrium solution. The acquisition will occur within 50 seconds from initial precession and nutation angles of 30 degrees. An electronic spin filter passes signals at spin and nutation frequencies and rejects bias signals due to sensor misalignment and principle axis offset. Describing function analysis and total analog simulation techniques were used. The flight ACS hardware was interfaced with the analog computer simulation for design and verification. The controller has flown on four successful missions.

Celmer, J. J.↗

Motion control of 7-DOF arms - The configuration control approach

Graphics simulation and real-time implementation of configuration control schemes for a redundant 7-DOF Robotics Research arm are described. The arm kinematics and motion control schemes are described briefly. This is followed by a description of a graphics simulation environment for 7-DOF arm control on the Silicon Graphics IRIS Workstation. Computer simulation results are presented to demonstrate elbow control, collision avoidance, and optimal joint movement as redundancy resolution goals. The laboratory setup for experimental validation of motion control of the 7-DOF Robotics Research arm is then described. The configuration control approach is implemented on a Motorola-68020/VME-bus-based real-time controller, with elbow positioning for redundancy resolution. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of configuration control for real-time control.

Seraji, Homayoun↗

An Ecosystem Simulation Model for Methane Production and Emission from Wetlands

Previous experimental studies suggest that methane emission from wetland is influenced by multiple interactive pathways of gas production and transport through soil and sediment layers to the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate a new simulation model of methane production and emission in wetland soils that was developed initially to help identify key processes that regulate methanogenesis and net flux of CH4 to the air, but which is designed ultimately for regional simulation using remotely sensed inputs for land cover characteristics. The foundation for these computer simulations is based on a well-documented model (CASA) of ecosystem production and carbon cycling in the terrestrial blaspheme. Modifications to represent flooded wetland soils and anaerobic decomposition include three new sub-models for: (1) layered soil temperature and water table depth (WTD) as a function of daily climate drivers, (2) CH4 production within the anoxic soil layer as a function of WTD and CO2 production under poorly drained conditions, and (3) CH4 gaseous transport pathways (molecular diffusion, ebullition, and plant vascular transport) as a function of WTD and ecosystem type. The model was applied and tested using climate and ecological data to characterize tundra wetland sites near Fairbanks, Alaska studied previously by Whalen and Reeburgh. Comparison of model predictions to measurements of soil temperature and thaw depth, water-table depth, and CH4 emissions over a two year period suggest that inter-site differences in soil physical conditions and methane fluxes could be reproduced accurately for selected periods. Day-to-day comparison of predicted emissions to measured CH4 flux rates reveals good agreement during the early part of the thaw season, but the model tends to underestimate production of CH4 during the months of July and August in both test years. Important seasonal effects, including that of falling WTD during these periods, are apparently overlooked in the model formulation. Nevertheless, reasonably close agreement was achieved between the model's mean daily and seasonal estimates of CH4 flux and observed emission rates for northern wetland ecosystems. Several features of the model are identified as crucial to more accurate prediction of wetland methane emission, including the capacity to incorporate influences of localized topographic and hydrologic features on site-specific soil temperature and WTD dynamics, and mechanistic simulation of methane emission transport pathways from within the soil profile.

Potter, C. S.↗

Space Shuttle Underside Astronaut Communications Performance Evaluation

The Space Shuttle Ultra High Frequency (UHF) communications system is planned to provide Radio Frequency (RF) coverage for astronauts working underside of the Space Shuttle Orbiter (SSO) for thermal tile inspection and repairing. This study is to assess the Space Shuttle UHF communication performance for astronauts in the shadow region without line-of-sight (LOS) to the Space Shuttle and Space Station UHF antennas. To insure the RF coverage performance at anticipated astronaut worksites, the link margin between the UHF antennas and Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Astronauts with significant vehicle structure blockage was analyzed. A series of near-field measurements were performed using the NASA/JSC Anechoic Chamber Antenna test facilities. Computational investigations were also performed using the electromagnetic modeling techniques. The computer simulation tool based on the Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD) was used to compute the signal strengths. The signal strength was obtained by computing the reflected and diffracted fields along the propagation paths between the transmitting and receiving antennas. Based on the results obtained in this study, RF coverage for UHF communication links was determined for the anticipated astronaut worksite in the shadow region underneath the Space Shuttle.

Hwu, Shian U.↗

Calculating Conductance of Ion Channels

We have simulated two small ion channels in a water/membrane system, which consists of 71,000-72,000 atoms, and have estimated the conductance by way of counting ions crossing these channels in applied field. The calculated values of conductance have been compared with predictions of the electrodiffusion model. In a recently developed theoretical framework, all commonly used assumptions of the model can be tested. If they are satisfied, which is often the case, the approach provides a rigorous way to extrapolate conductance calculated at one voltage to other voltages. This, in turn, allows for efficient estimations of current-voltage dependence, examining rectifying behavior of channels and calculating the reversal potential. Furthermore, the consistency of the results can be precisely tested. Simulations at microsecond time scales are required to sufficiently reduce statistical errors and separate them from possible systematic errors. Only then the accuracy of the proposed approach can be properly tested. Linking simulations with electrophysiology provides a stringent, highly relevant test for the correctness of computer simulations of ion channels. Considering biological, medical and pharmaceutical importance of these proteins, results of the proposed study might motivate the development of improved hardware and software that would enable applying a similar strategy to more complex channels at longer times.

Ion↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Bubbling in a Viscous Fluid for Validation of Waste Glass Melter Modeling

At the Hanford site, radioactive waste stored in underground tanks is slated for vitrification for final disposal. A comprehensive knowledge of the glass batch melting process will be useful in optimizing the process, which could potentially reduce the cost and duration of this multi-billion dollar cleanup effort. We are developing a high-fidelity heat transfer model of a Joule-heated ceramic lined melter to improve the understanding of the complex, inter-related processes occurring with the melter. The glass conversion rates in the cold cap layer are dependent on promoting efficient heat transfer. In practice, heat transfer is augmented by inserting air bubblers into the molten glass. However, the computational simulations must be validated to provide confidence in the solutions. As part of a larger validation procedure, it is beneficial to split the physics of the melter into smaller systems to validate individually. The substitution of molten glass for a simulant liquid with similar density and viscosity at room temperature provides a way to study mixing through bubbling as an isolated effect without considering the heat transfer dynamics. The simulation results are compared to experimental data obtained by the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America using bubblers placed within a large acrylic tank that is similar in scale to a pilot glass waste melter. Comparisons are made for surface area of the rising air bubbles between experiments and CFD simulations for a variety of air flow rates and bubble injection depths. Also, computed bubble rise velocity is compared to a well-accepted expression for bubble terminal velocity.

bubbling↗

Modeling assisted synthesis of Zr-doped Li 3-x In 1-x Zr x Cl 6 with ultrahigh ionic conductivity for lithium-ion batteries

All-solid-state lithium-ion batteries (ASSLBs) are an important milestone for the future of energy storage because of their capability of impressive energy density and outstanding safety. However, oxide and sulfide solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) suffer from either low ionic conductivity or poor chemical stability. In contrast, halide-based SSEs, are promising as candidate materials owing to high conductivity, good stability, and broad cathode compatibility. Though element doping of the SSEs is an effective and common approach to further improve their electrochemical properties, dopant exploration and optimization through solely experimental trials are both costly and time-consuming. For this aspect, computational simulations for dopant element and concentration screening are adopted in this research and zirconium is selected as a suitable dopant for Li 3 InCl 6 . Further, the synthesized Li 2.75 In 0.75 Zr 0.25 Cl 6 exhibited Li ionic conductivity of 5.82 x 10 -3 Scm -1 at room temperature, which is the highest among reported halide SSEs. The ASSLB formed with Li 2 CoO 2 -Li 2.75 In 0.75 Zr 0.25 Cl 6 -Li/In delivers a high initial capacity of 129.3 mAh∙g -1 . Conclusively, this work provides an effective approach which combines computational modeling and experimental verification for the development of halide SSEs with improved stability and conductivity. The successful design approach and compelling results provide further possibilities and capabilities in future SSE research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nonlinear simulation of under-resolved flows with shocks

Here, we consider the numerical simulation of advection-dominated flows whose wide range of physical length scales exceed the memory capacity of finite computers. Simulating flows with shocks and turbulence presented challenges for the earliest computers that were quickly overcome by the development of new numerical methodology. Principal among those new ideas were artificial viscosity and finite volume methods, concepts that remain in common use today. We begin by describing the history of those methods, the innovators and their motivations. We then describe the development of finite scale theory, a reformulation of Navier–Stokes theory that exposes the physical principles on which artificial viscosity is based. We discuss the essential properties of the finite scale equations, the observer, unresolved kinetic energy and inviscid energy dissipation. We briefly consider the implementation of the finite scale equations on the computer from the point of view of Gisin’s conjectures about finite information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dramatic Demand Reduction In The Desert Southwest

This report summarizes a project that was funded to the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV), with subcontractors Pulte Homes and NV Energy. The project was motivated by the fact that locations in the Desert Southwest portion of the US demonstrate very high peak electrical demands, typically in the late afternoons in the summer. These high demands often require high priced power to supply the needs, and the large loads can cause grid supply problems. An approach was proposed through this contact that would reduce the peak electrical demands to an anticipated 65% of what code-built houses of the similar size would have. It was proposed to achieve energy reduction through four approaches applied to a development of 185 homes in northwest part of Las Vegas named Villa Trieste. First, the homes would all be highly energy efficient. Secondly, each house would have a PV array installed on it. Third, an advanced demand response technique would be developed to allow the resident to have some control over the energy used. Finally, some type of battery storage would be used in the project. Pulte Homes designed the houses. The company considered initial cost vs. long-term savings and chose options that had relatively short paybacks. HERS (Home Energy Rating Service) ratings for the homes are approximately 43 on this scale. On this scale, code-built homes rate at 100, zero energy homes rate a 0, and Energy Star homes are 85. In addition a 1.764 Wp (peak Watt) rated PV array was used on each house. This was made up of solar shakes that were in visual harmony with the roofing material used. A demand response tool was developed to control the amount of electricity used during times of peak demand. While demand response techniques have been used in the utility industry for some time, this particular approach is designed to allow the customer to decide the degree of participation in the response activity. The temperature change in the residence can be decided by the residents by adjusting settings. In a sense the customer can choose between greater comfort and greater money savings during demand response circumstances. Finally a battery application was to be considered. Initially it was thought that a large battery (probably a sodium-sulfur type) would be installed. However, after the contract was awarded, it was determined that a single, centrally-located battery system would not be appropriate for many reasons, including that with the build out plan there would not be any location to put it. The price had risen substantially since the budget for the project was put together. Also, that type of battery has to be kept hot all the time, but its use was only sought for summer operation. Hence, individual house batteries would be used, and these are discussed at the end of this report. Many aspects of the energy use for climate control in selected houses were monitored before residents moved in. This was done both to understand the magnitude of the energy flows but also to have data that could be compared to the computer simulations. The latter would be used to evaluate various aspects of our plan. It was found that good agreement existed between actual energy use and computed energy use. Hence, various studies were performed via simulations. Performance simulations showed the impact on peak energy usage between a code built house of same size and shape compared to the Villa Trieste homes with and without the PV arrays on the latter. Computations were also used to understand the effect of varying orientations of the houses in this typical housing development, including the effect of PV electrical generation. Energy conservation features of the Villa Trieste homes decreased the energy use during peak times (as well as all others), but the resulting decreased peak occurred at about the same time as the code-built houses. Consideration of the PV generation decreases the grid energy use further during daylight hours, but did not extend long enough many days to decrease the peak. Hence, a demand response approach, as planned, was needed. With participation of the residents in the demand response program developed does enable the houses to reduce the peak demand between 66% and 72%, depending on the built years. This was addressed fully in the latter part the study and is described in the latter part of this report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Theory and simulation of the beam cyclotron instability.

A theory of plasma beam cyclotron instability is developed on the basis of computer simulation experiments. The theory holds that at certain turbulence levels, electron cross-field diffusion which supresses the electron gyroresonances is created by turbulent wave-particle interactions in a plasma beam after a period of quasi-linear exponential development of turbulence. The stabilizing effect of Landau ion damping is noted. The behavior of cold and hot ions is discussed.

Lampe, M.↗