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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating our understanding of climate change. This study explores uncertainty in baseline trajectories using multiple integrated assessment models commonly used in climate policy development. The study examines model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the probability distributions of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting distributions provide a useful input into climate policy discussions

climate policy, integrated assessment models, Unce↗

Advanced Divertor Development on NSTX-U

Collaboration with PPPL to develope various magnetic configurations on NSTX-U that were about to be experimentally achieved and studied. We also performed SOLPS simulations of the advanced divertor geometries for NSTX-U parameters. The simulations demonstrated the advanced divertor configurations could sustain full detachment without degradation of the core plasma and H-mode transport barrier. In this study, we developed a deeper understanding of the relation between the physics-based metrics and the actual divertor performance. This could be viewed as a basic contribution to the physics of divertors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding the optoelectronic properties of doped 2D organic-inorganic halide perovskite quantum wells: towards efficient quantum well IR photodetectors

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) multiple quantum wells which consist of multilayers of alternate organic and inorganic layers exhibit large exciton binding energies due to the dielectric confinement between the inorganic and organic layers. These naturally formed multiple quantum wells have strong spin-orbit coupling (SOC) due to the presence of heavy elements in their crystal structures. Although the fundamental properties of 2D MHPs are far from being entirely understood, it is widely accepted that their band edge absorption coefficient results from strong exciton interactions. However, studies demonstrating how different exciton interactions and doping effects influence electronic traps and disorder on the band edge absorption coefficient of 2D MHPs have not been demonstrated. Understanding these interactions in MHPs will allow us to access low energy optical transitions for the fabrication of solution processable short-to-mid-wavelength IR photodetectors (1 – 8 μm). Moreover, upon doping, it is possible to move the Fermi energy into the conduction band (CB) to favorably promote the transport of charges in a working device. Herein, we study the development of 2D MHPs having strong SOC, high carrier mobility, and tunable quantum well structures. Our studies shed light on the design and modulation of fundamental physical phenomena by carefully elucidating the role of dopants (n-type and p-type), exciton heterogeneity, orientation, structure, and bias stress effects on the performance of MHPs as potential IR photodetectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical and experimental investigation of the bending response of thin-walled composite cylinders

A numerical and experimental investigation of the bending behavior of six eight-ply graphite-epoxy circular cylinders is presented. Bending is induced by applying a known end-rotation to each end of the cylinders, analogous to a beam in bending. The cylinders have a nominal radius of 6 inches, a length-to-radius ratio of 2 and 5, and a radius-to-thickness ratio of approximately 160. A (+/- 45/0/90)S quasi-isotropic layup and two orthotropic layups, (+/- 45/0 sub 2)S and (+/- 45/90 sub 2)S, are studied. A geometrically nonlinear special-purpose analysis, based on Donnell's nonlinear shell equations, is developed to study the prebuckling responses and gain insight into the effects of non-ideal boundary conditions and initial geometric imperfections. A geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis is utilized to compare with the prebuckling solutions of the special-purpose analysis and to study the buckling and post buckling responses of both geometrically perfect and imperfect cylinders. The imperfect cylinder geometries are represented by an analytical approximation of the measured shape imperfections. Extensive experimental data are obtained from quasi-static tests of the cylinders using a test fixture specifically designed for the present investigation. A description of the test fixture is included. The experimental data are compared to predictions for both perfect and imperfect cylinder geometries. Prebuckling results are presented in the form of displacement and strain profiles. Buckling end-rotations, moments, and strains are reported, and predicted mode shapes are presented. Observed and predicted moment vs. end-rotation relations, deflection patterns, and strain profiles are illustrated for the post buckling responses. It is found that a geometrically nonlinear boundary layer behavior characterizes the prebuckling responses. The boundary layer behavior is sensitive to laminate orthotropy, cylinder geometry, initial geometric imperfections, applied end-rotation, and non-ideal boundary conditions. Buckling end-rotations, strains, and moments are influenced by laminate orthotropy and initial geometric imperfections. Measured buckling results correlate well with predictions for the geometrically imperfect specimens. The postbuckling analyses predict equilibrium paths with a number of scallop-shaped branches that correspond to unique deflection patterns. The observed postbuckling deflection patterns and measured strain profiles show striking similarities to the predictions in some cases. Ultimate failure of the cylinders is attributed to an interlaminar shear failure mode along the nodal lines of the postbuckling deflection patterns.

Fuchs, J. P.↗

Space Solar Power Technical Interchange Meeting 2: SSP TIM 2

The 2nd Space Solar Power Technical Interchange Meeting (SSP TIM 2) was conducted September 21st through 24th with the first part consisting of a Plenary session. The summary results of this Plenary session are contained in part one of this report. The attendees were then organized into Working Breakout Sessions and Integrated Product Team (IPT) Sessions for the purpose of conducting in-depth discussions in specific topic areas and developing a consensus as to appropriate study plans and actions to be taken. The Second part covers the Plenary Summary Session, which contains the summary results of the Working Breakout Sessions and IPT Sessions. The appendix contains the list of attendees. The ob'jective was to provide an update for the study teams and develop plans for subsequent study activities. This SSP TIM 2 was initiated and the results reported electronically over the Internet. The International Space Station (ISS) could provide the following opportunities for conducting research and technology (R&T) which are applicable to SSP: (1) Automation and Robotics, (2) Advanced Power Generation, (3) Advanced Power Management & Distribution (PMAD), (4) Communications Systems and Networks, (5) Energy Storage, (6) In Space Propulsion (ISP), (7) Structural Dynamics and Control, and Assembly and (8) Wireless Power Transmission.

Sanders, Jim↗

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

Investigation of the initial and volume recombination losses in gamma versatile cylindrical ionization chamber VGIC developed for gamma ray dosimetry

A versatile Gamma ionization chambers are used for flow control in systems with gamma nuclear reactors and reprocessing plants in and monitoring atmosphere around these facilities, this in order to protect staff. In the Laboratory Detection and Measures (LDM) Division for Study and Development of Nuclear Instrumentation (DSDNI) of CRNB, we designed, developed and characterized a versatile gamma ionization chamber (VGIC) to study experimentally its characteristics according to the geometry of the electrodes, the volume and pressure of the filler gas for the design of a gamma sealed chamber. The tests were conducted under the IEC (International Electro-technical Commission). In this paper, we present the results obtained in the various nuclear tests for characterization and calibration that we have made on the ionization chamber gamma VGIC prototype developed at our Department. To do this, three irradiators were operated at the Laboratory Calibration (SSDL) of the Department of Medical Physics Nuclear Research Center of Algiers (CRNA). Irradiator intensive gamma ({sup 60}Co: 1.25 MeV), one medium intensity gamma ({sup 137}Cs: 0.662 MeV) and 3rd low intensity ({sup 60}Co). Saturation curves and linearity were identified and the operating range and the sensitivity of the chamber have been deducted. The (I,V) characteristics of the chamber filled, with argon gas at 3 bar (0.3 M pa) pressure, for gamma ray irradiator sources were studied. To do so, the chamber was irradiated with gamma rays using different numbers of gamma sources (i.e. Up to 5). The plateau region is reached above 200 V and the detector operating voltage is found to be 600 V. It is observed that in the plateau region the slope is constant with an increase in the exposure rate. The (1/I, 1/V) and (I, l/V{sup 2}) characteristic curves reveal the presence of the initial and volume recombination losses. The volume recombination losses are found to be smaller than the initial recombination losses. Finally, in order to strengthen our results, we performed in the same conditions, a comparative characterization with another ionization gamma chamber type reference LND 504 (USA). (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Residual Stress and Opening-Mode Fracture Analysis of Multilayered Structures Subjected to Thermal Loading

Temperature change after formation commonly results in thermal residual stress in multilayered structures due to the different thermal and mechanical properties of each layer. In this paper, a three-dimensional (3D) elastic model is developed to study the residual stress and opening-mode fractures (OMFs) in a multilayered structure consisting of arbitrary number of layers under temperature change. The general solution of displacement field in the multilayered structure is derived by solving the elastic boundary value problem. In order to verify the proposed model, the elastic field in the advanced polymeric solar reflectors that consist of four layers is solved by applying the present model and compared with the finite-element (FE) simulation. In addition, parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effect of the thickness ratio between each layer on the accuracy of the developed model. As a result, based on the obtained elastic field, the fracture energy release rate (ERR) in the surface layer of the advanced polymeric reflector is obtained and used to study the fracture initiation, infilling, and saturation successfully.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical study of the effect of propped surface area and fracture conductivity on shale gas production: Application for multi-size proppant pumping schedule design

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique extensively used in the oil and gas industry, where water, proppant (sand) and additives are injected into unconventional reservoirs to enhance the recovery of shale hydrocarbon. Although some previous studies have developed pumping schedules that maximize gas production for a single-size proppant, there are very few studies that consider the effect of varying proppant diameters across pumping stages on shale gas production. Motivated by this, we carried out an extensive sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of different proppant diameters on the average fracture conductivity (FC), average propped surface area (PSA) and cumulative shale gas production volume. We found out that the cumulative shale gas production volume depends on both the average PSA and average FC. We also found out that small-diameter proppant resulted in higher average PSA and lower average FC, whereas large-diameter proppant resulted in lower average PSA and higher average FC. Hence, we designed a multi-size proppant pumping schedule considering both of these parameters into account for simultaneously propagating multiple fractures to maximize shale gas production from unconventional reservoirs. Since the size of injected proppant particles determines the average PSA and average FC for the propped hydraulic fractures, we developed a novel framework called Sequentially Interlinked Modeling Structure (SIMS) to predict the average PSA, average FC and cumulative shale gas production volume at the end of 10 years for a given pumping schedule. Then, we used this SIMS framework to obtain a multi-size proppant pumping schedule that maximizes shale gas production. In closing, we demonstrated that the obtained pumping schedule gives a cumulative shale gas production volume greater than the values obtained from the existing pumping schedules.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Microsatellite Markers for Aronia melanocarpa (Black Chokeberry) and Their Transferability to Other Aronia Species

This study reports the development, characterization, and cross-species transferability of 20 genomic microsatellite markers for Aronia melanocarpa, an important nutraceutical fruit crop. The markers were developed with Illumina paired-end genomic sequencing technology using DNA from Professor Ed cultivar that was originally collected from the wild in New Hampshire. The markers were highly polymorphic and transferable to Aronia arbutifolia and Aronia prunifolia genomes. The average number of alleles per locus was 9.1, 4.5, and 5.6 for A. melanocarpa, A. arbutifolia, and A. prunifolia, respectively. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of loci ranged from 0.38 to 0.95 for all taxa, with an average of 0.80, 0.68, and 0.87 for A. melanocarpa, A. arbutifolia, and A. prunifolia, respectively. This is the first study to develop microsatellite markers in the Aronia genus. Furthermore, these markers will be very useful in studying the genetic diversity and population structure of wild Aronia and expediting the breeding efforts of this emerging fruit crop through marker-assisted selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cross-Code verification and sensitivity analysis to effectively model the electrothermal instability

This manuscript presents verification cases that are developed to study the electrothermal instability (ETI). Specific verification cases are included to ensure that the unit physics components necessary to model the ETI are accurate, providing a path for fluid-based codes to effectively simulate ETI in the linear and nonlinear growth regimes. Two software frameworks with different algorithmic approaches are compared for accuracy in their ability to simulate diffusion of a magnetic field, linear growth of the ETI, and a fully nonlinear ETI evolution. The nonlinear ETI simulations show early time agreement, with some differences emerging, as noted in the wavenumber spectrum, late into the nonlinear development of ETI. Here, a sensitivity study explores the role of equation-of-state (EOS), vacuum density, and vacuum resistivity. EOS and vacuum resistivity are found to be the most critical factors in the modeling of nonlinear ETI development.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Study of the quiet corona with the SOHO/SUMER spectrometer

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiations (SUMER) spectrometer is developed to study the low corona and chromosphere-corona transition zone. The main scientific objectives are oriented towards the search of mechanisms producing the coronal heating and driving the first impulse of the solar wind. The main contribution will be given by an accurate measurement of line profiles, intensities and shifts combined with high angular resolution on the solar disk and above the limb. In this paper, we recall the scientific objectives, we describe the corresponding instrument capabilities and we show how the observations can be performed and the kind of data expected. The complementary role of the SOHO coronal instruments in coordinating observations to optimize the quality of the data is emphasized.

Lemaire, P.↗

AlloSHP: deconvoluting single homeologous polymorphism for phylogenetic analysis of allopolyploids

Background The genomic and evolutionary study of allopolyploid organisms involves multiple copies of homeologous chromosomes, making their assembly, annotation, and phylogenetic analysis challenging. Bioinformatics tools and protocols have been developed to study polyploid genomes, but sometimes require the assembly of their genomes, or at least the genes, limiting their use. Results We have developed AlloSHP, a command-line tool for detecting and extracting single homeologous polymorphisms (SHPs) from the subgenomes of allopolyploid species. This tool integrates three main algorithms, WGA, VCF2ALIGNMENT and VCF2SYNTENY, and allows the detection of SHPs for the study of diploid-polyploid complexes with available diploid progenitor genomes, without assembling and annotating the genomes of the allopolyploids under study. AlloSHP has been validated on three diploid-polyploid plant complexes, Brachypodium, Brassica, and Triticum-Aegilops, and a set of synthetic hybrid yeasts and their progenitors of the genus Saccharomyces. The results and congruent phylogenies obtained from the four datasets demonstrate the potential of AlloSHP for the evolutionary analysis of allopolyploids with a wide range of ploidy and genome sizes. Conclusions AlloSHP combines the strategies of simultaneous mapping against multiple reference genomes and syntenic alignment of these genomes to call SHPs, using as input data a single VCF file and the reference genomes of the known or closest extant diploid progenitor species. This novel approach provides a valuable tool for the evolutionary study of allopolyploid species, both at the interspecific and intraspecific levels, allowing the simultaneous analysis of a large number of accessions and avoiding the complex process of assembling polyploid genomes.

Allopolyploids↗

Field theory and a structure-preserving geometric particle-in-cell algorithm for drift wave instability and turbulence

A field theory and the associated structure-preserving geometric particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithm are developed to study low frequency electrostatic perturbations with fully kinetic ions and adiabatic electrons in magnetized plasmas. The algorithm is constructed by geometrically discretizing the field theory using discrete exterior calculus, high-order Whitney interpolation forms, and non-canonical Hamiltonian splitting method. The discretization preserves the non-canonical symplectic structure of the particle-field system, as well as the electromagnetic gauge symmetry. As a result, the algorithm is charge-conserving and possesses long-term conservation properties. Because drift wave turbulence and anomalous transport intrinsically involve multi time-scales, simulation studies using fully kinetic particles demand algorithms with long-term accuracy and fidelity. The structure-preserving geometric PIC algorithm developed adequately serves this purpose. The algorithm has been implemented in the code, tested and benchmarked using the examples of ion Bernstein waves and drift waves. We apply the algorithm to study the ion temperature gradient (ITG) instability and turbulence in a 2D slab geometry. Simulation results show that at the early stage of the turbulence, the energy diffusion is between the Bohm scaling and gyro-Bohm scaling. Finally, at later time, the observed diffusion is closer to the gyro-Bohm scaling, and density blobs generated by the rupture of unstable modes are the prominent structures of the fully developed ITG turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Long term orbital storage of cryogenic propellants for advanced space transportation missions

A comprehensive study has developed the major features of a large capacity orbital propellant depot for the space-based, cryogenic OTV. The study has treated both the Dual-Keel Space Station and co-orbiting platforms as the accommodations base for the propellant storage facilities, and trades have examined both tethered and hard-docked options. Five tank set concepts were developed for storing the propellants, and along with layout options for the station and platform, were evaluated from the standpoints of servicing, propellant delivery, boiloff, micrometeoroid/debris shielding, development requirements, and cost. These trades led to the recommendation that an all-passive storage concept be considered for the platform and an actively refrigerated concept providing for reliquefaction of all boiloff be considered for the Space Station. The tank sets are modular, each storing up to 45,400 kg of LO2/LH2, and employ many advanced features to provide for microgravity fluid management and to limit boiloff. The features include such technologies as zero-gravity mass gauging, total communication capillary liquid acquisition devices, autogenous pressurization, thermodynamic vent systems, thick multilayer insulation, vapor-cooled shields, solar-selective coatings, advanced micrometeoroid/debris protection systems, and long-lived cryogenic refrigeration systems.

Schuster, John R.↗

Coordinate detectors based on thin-wall drift tubes

Design features and basic parameters of the detectors based on straw trackers are reviewed using the example of the studies and development of trackers in a number of operating and proposed accelerator experimental facilities. The results of methodological studies aimed at qualitatively improving the spatial/time resolution and high rate capability of the detector and enhancing the performance capabilities of such detectors used for particle detection in a high multiplicity environment (and in high-luminosity experiments) are presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Demonstration of Intelligent Container Surveillance Using Stationary and Mobile Camera Platforms

Surveillance of nuclear material storage containers is required to ensure that the container safety boundary is maintained during the service life of the container. As many of these container types are the first and only containment barrier to release protecting the worker, public, and environment, it is imperative to develop robust surveillance tools to characterize container degradation. Machine learning (ML) techniques have matured quickly in the past decade and are slowly becoming a routine application in data analysis. While more popular architectures have been developed with different applications in mind, these can be easily translated to container surveillance requirements. In this study, we developed a ML model based on the Detectron2 framework to identify slip lid containers and common exterior container defects, primarily dents. Commercial-off-the-shelf cameras are combined into a stationary camera array or are mounted to a robotic arm to provide more mobility for positioning needs. Results from the model evaluations on the images indicate that the stationary camera arrays outperform the accuracy of the mobile camera systems for both individual camera and composite image detections. Overall, however, the detection accuracies of the systems fell short of 50% and were less than satisfactory. Future efforts to improve the system involve focusing on a single camera deployable solution that combines a controllable light source that eliminates one of the biggest environmental factors that influence ML model detection performance. Additional training set collection is planned to build a more robust model that enables accurate detection from a wider range of imaging conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗