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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Subaru adaptive-optics high-spatial-resolution infrared K- and L'-band imaging search for deeply buried dual AGNs in merging galaxies

We present the results of infrared K- (2.2 μm) and L'-band (3.8 μm) high-spatial-resolution (<0.''2) imaging observations of nearby gas- and dust-rich infrared luminous merging galaxies, assisted by the adaptive optics system on the Subaru 8.2 m telescope. We investigate the presence and frequency of red K – L' compact sources, which are sensitive indicators of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), including AGNs that are deeply buried in gas and dust. We observed 29 merging systems and confirmed at least one AGN in all but one system. However, luminous dual AGNs were detected in only four of the 29 systems (∼14%), despite our method's being sensitive to buried AGNs. For multiple nuclei sources, we compared the estimated AGN luminosities with supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses inferred from large-aperture K-band stellar emission photometry in individual nuclei. We found that mass accretion rates onto SMBHs are significantly different among multiple SMBHs, such that larger-mass SMBHs generally show higher mass accretion rates when normalized to SMBH mass. Our results suggest that non-synchronous mass accretion onto SMBHs in gas- and dust-rich infrared luminous merging galaxies hampers the observational detection of kiloparsec-scale multiple active SMBHs. This could explain the significantly smaller detection fraction of kiloparsec-scale dual AGNs when compared with the number expected from simple theoretical predictions. Our results also indicate that mass accretion onto SMBHs is dominated by local conditions, rather than by global galaxy properties, reinforcing the importance of observations to our understanding of how multiple SMBHs are activated and acquire mass in gas- and dust-rich merging galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

ON THE USE OF THE INDEX N2 TO DERIVE THE METALLICITY IN METAL-POOR GALAXIES

The N2 index ([N II] λ6584/Hα) is used to determine emission line galaxy metallicities at all redshifts, including high redshift, where galaxies tend to be metal-poor. The initial aim of this work was to improve the calibrations used to infer oxygen abundance from N2 by employing updated low-metallicity galaxy databases. We compare N2 and the metallicity determined using the direct method for the set of extremely metal-poor galaxies compiled by Morales-Luis et al. To our surprise, the oxygen abundance presents a tendency to be constant with N2, with a very large scatter. Consequently, we find that the existing N2 calibrators overestimate the oxygen abundance for most low-metallicity galaxies, and can therefore only be used to set upper limits to the true metallicity in low-metallicity galaxies. An explicit expression for this limit is given. In addition, we try to explain the observed scatter using photoionization models. It is mostly due to the different evolutionary state of the H II regions producing the emission lines, but it also arises due to differences in N/O among the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MINE: a new way to design genetics experiments for discovery

Abstract The Maximally Informative Next Experiment or MINE is a new experimental design approach for experiments, such as those in omics, in which the number of effects or parameters p greatly exceeds the number of samples n (p > n). Classical experimental design presumes n > p for inference about parameters and its application to p > n can lead to over-fitting. To overcome p > n, MINE is an ensemble method, which makes predictions about future experiments from an existing ensemble of models consistent with available data in order to select the most informative next experiment. Its advantages are in exploration of the data for new relationships with n < p and being able to integrate smaller and more tractable experiments to replace adaptively one large classic experiment as discoveries are made. Thus, using MINE is model-guided and adaptive over time in a large omics study. Here, MINE is illustrated in two distinct multiyear experiments, one involving genetic networks in Neurospora crassa and a second one involving a genome-wide association study in Sorghum bicolor as a comparison to classic experimental design in an agricultural setting.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 5 per cent measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT The most stringent local measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) differs from the value inferred via the cosmic microwave background radiation (Planck+ΛCDM) by ∼5σ. This so-called Hubble tension has been confirmed by other independent methods, and thus does not appear to be a possible consequence of systematic errors. Here, we continue upon our prior work of using Type II supernovae to provide another, largely independent method to measure the Hubble–Lemaître constant. From 13 SNe II with geometric, Cepheid, or tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) host-galaxy distance measurements, we derive H$_0= 75.4^{+3.8}_{-3.7}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only), consistent with the local measurement but in disagreement by ∼2.0σ with the Planck+ΛCDM value. Using only Cepheids (N = 7), we find H$_0 = 77.6^{+5.2}_{-4.8}$ km s−1 Mpc−1, while using only TRGB (N = 5), we derive H$_0 = 73.1^{+5.7}_{-5.3}$ km s−1 Mpc−1. Via 13 variants of our data set, we derive a systematic uncertainty estimate of 1.5 km s−1 Mpc−1. The median value derived from these variants differs by just 0.3 km s−1 Mpc−1 from that produced by our fiducial model. Because we only replace SNe Ia with SNe II – and we do not find statistically significant difference between the Cepheid and TRGB H0 measurements – our work reveals no indication that SNe Ia or Cepheids could be the sources of the ‘H0 tension.’ We caution, however, that our conclusions rest upon a modest calibrator sample; as this sample grows in the future, our results should be verified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of gravitational lensing and patchy reionization with future CMB data

We develop an optimal Bayesian solution for jointly inferring secondary signals in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) originating from gravitational lensing and from patchy screening during the epoch of reionization. This method is able to extract full information content from the data, improving upon previously considered quadratic estimators for lensing and screening. Here, we forecast constraints using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method, and show that they are largely dominated by CMB polarization, and depend on the exact details of reionization. For models consistent with current data which produce the largest screening signals, a detection (3 σ) of the cross-correlation between lensing and screening is possible with SPT-3G, and a detection of the auto-correlation is possible with CMB-S4. Models with the lowest screening signals evade the sensitivity of SPT-3G, but are still possible to detect with CMB-S4 via their lensing cross-correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hamiltonian parameter inference from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering with active learning

Identifying model Hamiltonians is a vital step toward creating predictive models of materials. Here, in this study, we combine Bayesian optimization with the EDRIXS numerical package to infer Hamiltonian parameters from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra within the single atom approximation. To evaluate the efficacy of our method, we test it on experimental RIXS spectra of NiPS 3 , NiCl 2 , Ca 3 ⁢LiOsO 6 , and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , and demonstrate that it can reproduce results obtained from hand-fitted parameters to a precision similar to expert human analysis while providing a more systematic mapping of parameter space. Our work provides a key first step toward solving the inverse scattering problem to extract effective multi-orbital models from information-dense RIXS measurements, which can be applied to a host of quantum materials. We also propose atomic model parameter sets for two materials, Ca 3⁢ LiOsO 6 and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , that were previously missing from the literature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Recurrent Neural Network Modeling for Traffic Delay Prediction at Signalized Intersections Along an Urban Arterial

This paper studies the traffic delay prediction modeling for multiple signalized intersections along the Ala Moana Boulevard and Nimitz Highway in Hawaii. Several machine learning (ML) based approaches have been studied in the literature, and most of them focused on prediction accuracy rather than the end use of real-time control and implementation. These ML models tend to be very complex and non-linear in nature, making it challenging to achieve fast inferences and are computationally heavy for real-time signal control implementation. As such, in this paper, a simple yet accurate hybrid modeling method is proposed to predict traffic delay one-step ahead with the model made suitable for real-time implementation to control traffic flow. Since real-time road-side measurements are recorded in unstructured form, the paper also discusses other issues related to data extraction and the pre-processing process. Finally, a simple signal control loop is developed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach, which has shown advantages in model accuracy and computation efficiency compared against several existing modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hardware-Based Randomized Encoding for Sensor Authentication in Power Grid SCADA Systems

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are utilized extensively in critical power grid infrastructures. Modern SCADA systems have been proven to be susceptible to cyber-security attacks and require improved security primitives in order to prevent unwanted influence from an adversarial party. One section of weakness in the SCADA system is the integrity of field level sensors providing essential data for control decisions at a master station. In this paper we propose a lightweight hardware scheme providing inferred authentication for SCADA sensors by combining an analog to digital converter and a permutation generator as a single integrated circuit. Through this method we encode critical sensor data at the time of sensing, so that unencoded data is never stored in memory, increasing the difficulty of software attacks. We show through experimentation how our design stops both software and hardware false data injection attacks occurring at the field level of SCADA systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting the Role of Ocean Circulation Changes in Polar Ocean Heat Transport Anomalies under Global Warming

In response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models predict that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) weakens in the Southern Ocean but increases in the Arctic. The role of ocean circulation changes in this OHT response has been evaluated by decomposing OHT anomalies into a dynamic component (holding ocean temperature fixed while circulation evolves) and a thermodynamic component (holding ocean circulation fixed while temperature evolves). However, ocean temperature changes are themselves shaped by circulation changes through redistribution of the existing heat reservoir and subsequent effects on air–sea heat fluxes. The thermodynamic component can therefore be influenced by circulation changes, making the standard thermodynamic–dynamic decomposition incomplete for isolating the role of circulation changes in OHT anomalies. To address this issue, we use a passive–active decomposition to assess the relative contributions of ocean circulation and passive ocean temperature changes to polar OHT anomalies in a fully coupled climate model. Passive temperature changes are defined as those thermally forced by the atmosphere in the absence of circulation changes. In this passive–active decomposition, an advective term involving both circulation and passive temperature changes remains ambiguous—classifying it as active implies circulation changes dominate Southern Ocean OHT anomalies, whereas classifying it as passive implies temperature changes dominate. However, both interpretations imply that ocean circulation changes have a much weaker effect on polar OHT anomalies than inferred from the standard decomposition. In conclusion, these results help reconcile conclusions from studies using the standard decomposition with those using passive tracer methods to assess the role of circulation changes in polar OHT anomalies.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2021

DeepGRN: prediction of transcription factor binding site across cell-types using attention-based deep neural networks

Abstract Background Due to the complexity of the biological systems, the prediction of the potential DNA binding sites for transcription factors remains a difficult problem in computational biology. Genomic DNA sequences and experimental results from parallel sequencing provide available information about the affinity and accessibility of genome and are commonly used features in binding sites prediction. The attention mechanism in deep learning has shown its capability to learn long-range dependencies from sequential data, such as sentences and voices. Until now, no study has applied this approach in binding site inference from massively parallel sequencing data. The successful applications of attention mechanism in similar input contexts motivate us to build and test new methods that can accurately determine the binding sites of transcription factors. Results In this study, we propose a novel tool (named DeepGRN) for transcription factors binding site prediction based on the combination of two components: single attention module and pairwise attention module. The performance of our methods is evaluated on the ENCODE-DREAM in vivo Transcription Factor Binding Site Prediction Challenge datasets. The results show that DeepGRN achieves higher unified scores in 6 of 13 targets than any of the top four methods in the DREAM challenge. We also demonstrate that the attention weights learned by the model are correlated with potential informative inputs, such as DNase-Seq coverage and motifs, which provide possible explanations for the predictive improvements in DeepGRN. Conclusions DeepGRN can automatically and effectively predict transcription factor binding sites from DNA sequences and DNase-Seq coverage. Furthermore, the visualization techniques we developed for the attention modules help to interpret how critical patterns from different types of input features are recognized by our model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

APPLICATION OF EYE TRACKING FOR MEASUREMENT AND EVALUATION IN HUMAN FACTORS STUDIES IN CONTROL ROOM MODERNIZATION

An important element of human factors engineering (HFE) pertains to measurement and evaluation (M&E). The role of HFE-M&E should be integrated throughout the entire control room modernization (CRM) process and be used for human-system performance evaluation and diagnostic purposes with resolving potential human engineering deficiencies (HEDs) and other human machine interface (HMI) design issues. NUREG-0711 describes how HFE in CRM should employ a hierarchical set of measures, particularly during integrated system validation (ISV), including plant performance, personnel task performance, situation awareness, cognitive workload, and anthropometric/ physiological factors. Historically, subjective measures have been primarily used since they are easier to collect and do not require specialized equipment. However, there are pitfalls with relying solely on subjective measures in M&E such that negatively impact reliability, sensitivity, and objectivity. As part of comprehensively capturing a diverse set of measures that strengthen findings and inferences made of the benefits from emerging technologies like advanced displays, this paper discusses the value of using eye tracking as an objective method that can be used in M&E. A brief description of eye tracking technology and relevant eye tracking measures is provided. Additionally, technical considerations and the unique challenges with using eye tracking in full-scaled simulations are addressed. Finally, this paper shares preliminary findings regarding the use of a wearable eye tracking system in a full-scale simulator study. These findings should help guide future full-scale simulator studies using eye tracking as a methodology to evaluate human-system performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Application of eye tracking for measurement and evaluation in human factors studies in control room modernization - 309

An important element of human factors engineering (HFE) pertains to measurement and evaluation (M and E). The role of HFE-M and E should be integrated throughout the entire control room modernization (CRM) process and be used for human-system performance evaluation and diagnostic purposes with resolving potential human engineering deficiencies (HEDs) and other human machine interface (HMI) design issues. NUREG-0711 describes how HFE in CRM should employ a hierarchical set of measures, particularly during integrated system validation (ISV), including plant performance, personnel task performance, situation awareness, cognitive workload, and anthropometric/ physiological factors. Historically, subjective measures have been primarily used since they are easier to collect and do not require specialized equipment. However, there are pitfalls with relying solely on subjective measures in M and E such that negatively impact reliability, sensitivity, and objectivity. As part of comprehensively capturing a diverse set of measures that strengthen findings and inferences made of the benefits from emerging technologies like advanced displays, this paper discusses the value of using eye tracking as an objective method that can be used in M and E. A brief description of eye tracking technology and relevant eye tracking measures is provided. Additionally, technical considerations and the unique challenges with using eye tracking in full-scaled simulations are addressed. Finally, this paper shares preliminary findings regarding the use of a wearable eye tracking system in a full-scale simulator study. These findings should help guide future full-scale simulator studies using eye tracking as a methodology to evaluate human-system performance. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting dynamic causal inference in nonlinear two-phase fracture flow

Identifying dynamic causal inference involved in flow and transport processes in complex fractured-porous media is generally a challenging task, because nonlinear and chaotic variables may be positively coupled or correlated for some periods of time, but can then become spontaneously decoupled or non-correlated. In his 2002 paper (Faybishenko, 2002), the author performed a nonlinear dynamical and chaotic analysis of time-series data obtained from the fracture flow experiment conducted by Persoff and Pruess (1995), and, based on the visual examination of time series data, hypothesized that the observed pressure oscillations at both inlet and outlet edges of the fracture result from a superposition of both forward and return waves of pressure propagation through the fracture. In the current paper, the author explores an application of a combination of methods for detecting nonlinear chaotic dynamics behavior along with the multivariate Granger Causality (G-causality) time series test. Based on the G-causality test, the author infers that his hypothesis is correct, and presents a causation loop diagram of the spatial-temporal distribution of gas, liquid, and capillary pressures measured at the inlet and outlet of the fracture. The causal modeling approach can be used for the analysis of other hydrological processes, for example, infiltration and pumping tests in heterogeneous subsurface media, and climatic processes, for example, to find correlations between various meteorological parameters, such as temperature, solar radiation, barometric pressure, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending Parsimonious Bayesian Inference

Parsimonious Bayesian inference is a theoretical framework for efficient data assimilation that seeks to balance increased consistency between predictions and training data against corresponding increases in model complexity. Within this framework, over-training is understood as optimization that encodes excessive information within model parameters while only achieving small improvements between predictions and training data. This project aims to develop practical methods of limiting excess model information during optimization. One key observation is that practical heuristics for parsimonious learning in high-dimensions must balance expressivity, i.e. the ability of the model to capture diverse predictions with only a few non-zero parameters, against discoverability, i.e. the ability to train the model with gradient-based optimization and drive parameters to low information states. As such, we developed logical activation functions that are able to adaptively approximate arbitrary truth tables that define Boolean logic operations within a probabilistic framework. These functions have demonstrated the ability to learn exclusive disjunction (XOR) and conditioned disjunction (if [condition] then [result_if_true] else [result_if_false]) within a single layer of a neural network. To efficiently exploit these activation functions to drive parsimonious learning required several other advances within the domain of variational inference. The most efficient form of complexity suppression is structured sparsification, driving most model parameters to zero while achieving the structural coherence among nonzeros needed for bandwidth reduction. Such models are not only far more efficient at suppressing information-theoretic complexity, they also reduce the other forms of complexity (computations, communication, storage, and the number of dependencies needed to evaluate predictions). Aiming to support enhanced sparsification, this project examined new approaches to high-dimensional variational inference that allow us to calibrate and control parameter uncertainty during optimization. By identifying which parameters can sustain sparsifying perturbations with little impact on prediction quality, we can develop better pruning strategies by framing them as approximate Bayesian inference. These advances also open paths to mitigate concerns with deploying advanced learning methods in resource-constrained environments, such as running models on power-limited or communication-limited devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE DARK MATTER PROFILE OF THE MILKY WAY: A NON-PARAMETRIC RECONSTRUCTION

We present the results of a new, non-parametric method to reconstruct the Galactic dark matter profile directly from observations. Using the latest kinematic data to track the total gravitational potential and the observed distribution of stars and gas to set the baryonic component, we infer the dark matter contribution to the circular velocity across the Galaxy. The radial derivative of this dynamical contribution is then estimated to extract the dark matter profile. The innovative feature of our approach is that it makes no assumption on the functional form or shape of the profile, thus allowing for a clean determination with no theoretical bias. We illustrate the power of the method by constraining the spherical dark matter profile between 2.5 and 25 kpc away from the Galactic center. The results show that the proposed method, free of widely used assumptions, can already be applied to pinpoint the dark matter distribution in the Milky Way with competitive accuracy, and paves the way for future developments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring the Redshift of More than 150 GRBs with a Machine-learning Ensemble Model

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), due to their high luminosities, are detected up to a redshift of 10, and thus have the potential to be vital cosmological probes of early processes in the Universe. Fulfilling this potential requires a large sample of GRBs with known redshifts, but due to observational limitations, only 11% have known redshifts (z). There have been numerous attempts to estimate redshifts via correlation studies, most of which have led to inaccurate predictions. To overcome this, we estimated GRB redshift via an ensemble-supervised machine-learning (ML) model that uses X-ray afterglows of long-duration GRBs observed by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The estimated redshifts are strongly correlated (a Pearson coefficient of 0.93) and have an rms error, namely, the square root of the average squared error $\langle$Δz 2 $\rangle$, of 0.46 with the observed redshifts showing the reliability of this method. The addition of GRB afterglow parameters improves the predictions considerably by 63% compared to previous results in peer-reviewed literature. Finally, we use our ML model to infer the redshifts of 154 GRBs, which increase the known redshifts of long GRBs with plateaus by 94%, a significant milestone for enhancing GRB population studies that require large samples with redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Anomaly Detection in Dynamic Networks

Anomaly detection in dynamic communication networks has many important security applications. These networks can be extremely large and so detecting any changes in their structure can be computationally challenging; hence, computationally fast, parallelisable methods for monitoring the network are paramount. For this reason the methods presented here use independent node and edge based models to detect locally anomalous substructures within communication networks. As a first stage, the aim is to detect changes in the data streams arising from node or edge communications. Throughout the thesis simple, conjugate Bayesian models for counting processes are used to model these data streams. A second stage of analysis can then be performed on a much reduced subset of the network comprising nodes and edges which have been identified as potentially anomalous in the first stage. The first method assumes communications in a network arise from an inhomogeneous Poisson process with piecewise constant intensity. Anomaly detection is then treated as a changepoint problem on the intensities. The changepoint model is extended to incorporate seasonal behavior inherent in communication networks. This seasonal behavior is also viewed as a changepoint problem acting on a piecewise constant Poisson process. In a static time frame, inference is made on this extended model via a Gibbs sampling strategy. In a sequential time frame, where the data arrive as a stream, a novel, fast Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is introduced to sample from the sequence of posterior distributions of the change points over time. A second method is considered for monitoring communications in a large scale computer network. The usage patterns in these types of networks are very bursty in nature and don’t fit a Poisson process model. For tractable inference, discrete time models are considered, where the data are aggregated into discrete time periods and probability models are fitted to the communication counts. In a sequential analysis, anomalous behavior is then identified from outlying behavior with respect to the fitted predictive probability models. Seasonality is again incorporated into the model and is treated as a changepoint model on the transition probabilities of a discrete time Markov process. Second stage analytics are then developed which combine anomalous edges to identify anomalous substructures in the network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗