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NASA NTRS1997

The Multi-Center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor, MACAWS

In 1992 the atmospheric lidar remote sensing groups of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory began a joint collaboration to develop an airborne high-energy Doppler laser radar (lidar) system for atmospheric research and satellite validation and simulation studies. The result is the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor, MACAWS, which has the capability to remotely sense the distribution of wind and absolute aerosol backscatter in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. A factor critical to the programmatic feasibility and technical success of this collaboration has been the utilization of existing components and expertise which were developed for previous atmospheric research by the respective institutions. The motivation for the MACAWS program Is three-fold: to obtain fundamental measurements of sub-synoptic scale processes and features which may be used as a basis to improve sub-grid scale parameterizations in large-scale models; to obtain similar datasets in order to improve the understanding and predictive capabilities on the mesoscale; and to validate (simulate) the performance of existing (planned) satellite-borne sensors. Examples of the latter include participation in the validation of the NASA Scatterometer and the assessment of prospective satellite Doppler lidar for global tropospheric wind measurement. Initial flight tests were made in September 1995; subsequent flights were made in June 1996 following improvements. This paper describes the MACAWS instrument, principles of operation, examples of measurements over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western United States, and future applications.

Rothermel, Jeffry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of Quantum Machine Learning to High Energy Physics Analysis at LHC using IBM Quantum Computer Simulators and IBM Quantum Computer Hardware

Our group pioneers the use of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) on High Energy Physics analysis at LHC. We have successfully employed several QML classification algorithms in the ttH (Higgs production in association with a top quark pair) and Higgs to two muons (Higgs coupling to second generation fermions), two recent LHC flagship physics analysis, on gate-model quantum computer simulators and hardware. The simulation studies have been performed with the IBM Quantum Framework, Google Tensorflow Quantum Framework, and Amazon Braket Framework, and we have achieved good classification performance that is similar to the performances of the classical machine learning methods currently used in LHC physics analyses, classical SVM, classical BDT, and classical deep neural network for example. We have also performed our studies using IBM superconducting quantum computer hardware and the performance is promising and is approaching the performance from IBM quantum simulators. Moreover, we extend our studies to other QML areas such as quantum anomaly detection and quantum generative adversarial, and some preliminary results have been obtained. Also, we have overcome the challenges of intensive computing resources in the cases of large qubits (25 qubits or more) and large numbers of events using NVIDIA cuQuantum with NERSC Perlmutter HPC. Our studies give an example that Quantum Machine Learning performs as well as its classical counterpart for realistic High Energy Physics analysis datasets. Furthermore, our result on noisy quantum hardware provides important validation for the result on noiseless quantum simulators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Simulating Black Carbon and Dust and their Radiative Forcing in Seasonal Snow: A Case Study over North China with Field Campaign Measurements

A state-of-the-art regional model, WRF-Chem, is coupled with the SNICAR model that includes the sophisticated representation of snow metamorphism processes available for climate study. The coupled model is used to simulate the black carbon (BC) and dust concentrations and their radiative forcing in seasonal snow over North China in January-February of 2010, with extensive field measurements used to evaluate the model performance. In general, the model simulated spatial variability of BC and dust mass concentrations in the top snow layer (hereafter BCS and DSTS, respectively) are quantitatively or qualitatively consistent with observations. The model generally moderately underestimates BCS in the clean regions but significantly overestimates BCS in some polluted regions. Most model results fall into the uncertainty ranges of observations. The simulated BCS and DSTS are highest with >5000 ng g-1 and up to 5 mg g-1, respectively, over the source regions and reduce to <50 ng g-1 and <1 μg g-1, respectively, in the remote regions. BCS and DSTS introduce similar magnitude of radiative warming (~10 W m-2) in snowpack, which is comparable to the magnitude of surface radiative cooling due to BC and dust in the atmosphere. This study represents the first effort in using a regional modeling framework to simulate BC and dust and their direct radiative forcing in snow. Although a variety of observational datasets have been used to attribute model biases, some uncertainties in the results remain, which highlights the need for more observations, particularly concurrent measurements of atmospheric and snow aerosols and the deposition fluxes of aerosols, in future campaigns.

black carbon↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Propagule Pressure in Microbial Introductions

The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. The dataset filed here includes the experimemtal datafile, and a RMarkdown file that includes all the code used in in both the modeling and anaylsis.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulent burning velocity of lean premixed hydrogen/air flames at engine conditions: Effects of turbulence intensity and length scale

For turbulent lean premixed hydrogen flames with strong thermodiffusively instabilities, most previous studies have focused on the influence of turbulence intensity, whereas the role of turbulence length scale is less well understood. Here, this study addresses this gap by conducting direct numerical simulations (DNS) of statistically planar turbulent premixed flames for a lean (ϕ=0.35) hydrogen/air mixture under independently varied turbulence intensity (u') and length scale (l T ) at engine-relevant thermodynamics conditions. Results show that as u' increases, the flame front becomes increasingly wrinkled, forming smaller cellular structures. In contrast, l T variations do not significantly alter the size of these structures. For the turbulent burning velocity (S T ), the normalized S T (i.e., S T /S L , where S L is the laminar flame speed) increases linearly with u', driven by both enhanced flame surface wrinkling (i.e., increased A T /A L ) and enhanced local burning rate (i.e., increased I 0 ). However, increasing l T reduces I 0 , despite a continued increase in A T /A L , resulting in only a marginal increase in S T /S L . To reveal the underlying mechanisms, especially the decreasing trend of I 0 with l T , local flame dynamics analyses are performed. It is found that as l T increases, the interaction between thermodiffusive effects and turbulence weakens due to the reduced tangential strain rate, while the flame curvature remains largely unchanged. This suppresses local reactivity enhancement and thus decreases I 0 , In contrast, an increase in u' enhances the interaction by amplifying both curvature fluctuation and tangential strain rate, leading to increased local reactivity (increased I 0 ). Finally, based on the DNS data, several new scaling models are proposed for the three global properties, S T /S L , A T /A L , and I 0 , and showed improvements compared to existing models. These findings provide new insights into the flame-turbulence interactions in thermodiffusively unstable hydrogen flames. The DNS dataset is also useful for the development of turbulent combustion models applicable to practical engine simulations.

Engine-relevant condition↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP3-15: Is the Reproducibility with Respect to Bone of Tumor Position at Simulation for Breath Hold CT Scans Correlated to the Reproducibility for Multiple Breath Hold CBCTs at Treatment in SBRT Thoracic Patients?

Purpose: To evaluate correlation between the reproducibility of tumor position under feedback guided voluntary deep inspiration breath hold gating at simulation and at treatment. Methods: All patients treated with breath hold (BH) have 3-6 BH CTs taken at simulation (sim). In addition, if the relationship between the tumor and nearby bony anatomy on treatment BH CT(or CBCT) is found to be greater than 5 mm different at treatment than it was at sim, a repeat BH CT is taken before treatment. We retrospectively analyzed the sim CTs for 19 patients who received BH SBRT lung treatments and had repeat BH CT on treatment. We evaluated the reproducibility of the tumor position during the simulation CTs and compared this to the reproducibility of the tumor position on the repeat treatment CT with our in-house CT alignment software (CT-Assisted Targeting for Radiotherapy). Results: Comparing the tumor position for multiple simulation BH CTs, we calculated: maximum difference (max) = 0.69cm; average difference (x) = 0.28cm; standard deviation (σ) = 0.18cm. Comparing the repeat BH CBCTs on treatment days we calculated: max = 0.44cm; x = 0.16cm; σ = 0.22cm. We also found that for 95% of our BH cases, the absolute variation in tumor position within the same imaging day was within 5mm of the range at the time of simulation and treatment. We found that 75% of the BH cases had less residual tumor motion on treatment days than at simulation. Conclusion: This suggests that a GTV contour based upon the residual tumor motion in multiple BH datasets plus 2 mm margin should be sufficient to cover the full range of residual tumor motion on treatment days.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data

This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Predictive Simulation Capability Development for Crater Evolution and Ejecta in Continuum/Rarefied Flows

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the predictive simulation capability, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. The focus of this paper is to provide an overview and a brief status on one area of capability development through this GCD PSI project - capturing the effects of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets. This includes both capability enhancements and maturation of the predictive tool, Loci/GGFS, into a production capable tool as well as validation of the tool against PSI data in Martian and Lunar environments. There are six newly developed capabilities that will be production ready by the end of the fiscal year. Newly developed capabilities must first be verified prior to being production ready, and this process includes capability demonstration, solution verification, and performance evaluation. An overview of the newly developed capabilities with respect to several test cases, including cratering simulations of the Apollo Lunar Module, will be presented. Several validation analyses have been performed to validate in Martian and more Lunar-like environments, including simulations of cratering from a subsonic flow test at Planetary Aeolian Lab (PAL) conducted in a Martian-like environment and pre-test cratering predictions of Physics Focused Ground Test (PFGT) tests planned to be performed in Martian-like and more Lunar-like environments. An overview of these validation analyses as it pertains to the capability development will be presented.

Andrew Weaver↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distance‐based reconstruction of protein quaternary structures from inter‐chain contacts

Abstract Predicting the quaternary structure of protein complex is an important problem. Inter‐chain residue‐residue contact prediction can provide useful information to guide the ab initio reconstruction of quaternary structures. However, few methods have been developed to build quaternary structures from predicted inter‐chain contacts. Here, we develop the first method based on gradient descent optimization (GD) to build quaternary structures of protein dimers utilizing inter‐chain contacts as distance restraints. We evaluate GD on several datasets of homodimers and heterodimers using true/predicted contacts and monomer structures as input. GD consistently performs better than both simulated annealing and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Starting from an arbitrarily quaternary structure randomly initialized from the tertiary structures of protein chains and using true inter‐chain contacts as input, GD can reconstruct high‐quality structural models for homodimers and heterodimers with average TM‐score ranging from 0.92 to 0.99 and average interface root mean square distance from 0.72 Å to 1.64 Å. On a dataset of 115 homodimers, using predicted inter‐chain contacts as restraints, the average TM‐score of the structural models built by GD is 0.76. For 46% of the homodimers, high‐quality structural models with TM‐score ≥ 0.9 are reconstructed from predicted contacts. There is a strong correlation between the quality of the reconstructed models and the precision and recall of predicted contacts. Only a moderate precision or recall of inter‐chain contact prediction is needed to build good structural models for most homodimers. Moreover, GD improves the quality of quaternary structures predicted by AlphaFold2 on a Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction–Critical Assessments of Predictions of Interactions dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

A hybrid approach for fusing 4D-MRI temporal information with 3D-CT for the study of lung and lung tumor motion

Purpose: Accurate visualization of lung motion is important in many clinical applications, such as radiotherapy of lung cancer. Advancement in imaging modalities [e.g., computed tomography (CT) and MRI] has allowed dynamic imaging of lung and lung tumor motion. However, each imaging modality has its advantages and disadvantages. The study presented in this paper aims at generating synthetic 4D-CT dataset for lung cancer patients by combining both continuous three-dimensional (3D) motion captured by 4D-MRI and the high spatial resolution captured by CT using the authors’ proposed approach. Methods: A novel hybrid approach based on deformable image registration (DIR) and finite element method simulation was developed to fuse a static 3D-CT volume (acquired under breath-hold) and the 3D motion information extracted from 4D-MRI dataset, creating a synthetic 4D-CT dataset. Results: The study focuses on imaging of lung and lung tumor. Comparing the synthetic 4D-CT dataset with the acquired 4D-CT dataset of six lung cancer patients based on 420 landmarks, accurate results (average error <2 mm) were achieved using the authors’ proposed approach. Their hybrid approach achieved a 40% error reduction (based on landmarks assessment) over using only DIR techniques. Conclusions: The synthetic 4D-CT dataset generated has high spatial resolution, has excellent lung details, and is able to show movement of lung and lung tumor over multiple breathing cycles.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Kimberlina synthetic multiphysics dataset for CO 2 monitoring investigations

Abstract We present a synthetic multi‐scale, multi‐physics dataset constructed from the Kimberlina 1.2 CO 2 reservoir model based on a potential CO 2 storage site in the Southern San Joaquin Basin of California. Among 300 models, one selected reservoir‐simulation scenario produces hydrologic‐state models at the onset and after 20 years of CO 2 injection. Subsequently, these models were transformed into geophysical properties, including P‐ and S‐wave seismic velocities, saturated density where the saturating fluid can be a combination of brine and supercritical CO 2 , and electrical resistivity using established empirical petrophysical relationships. From these 3D distributions of geophysical properties, we have generated synthetic time‐lapse seismic, gravity and electromagnetic responses with acquisition geometries that mimic realistic monitoring surveys and are achievable in actual field situations. We have also created a series of synthetic well logs of CO 2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells. These were constructed by combining the low‐frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high‐frequency variations of actual well logs collected at the potential storage site. In addition, to better calibrate our datasets, measurements of permeability and pore connectivity have been made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit. These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic dataset to be as close to a real‐world situation as possible. This dataset consisting of the reservoir models, geophysical models, simulated time‐lapse geophysical responses and well logs forms a multi‐scale, multi‐physics testbed for designing and testing geophysical CO 2 monitoring systems as well as for imaging and characterization algorithms. The suite of numerical models and data have been made publicly available for downloading on the National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) Energy Data Exchange (EDX) website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗