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DOE OSTI2015

Improving Representation of Convective Transport for Scale-Aware Parameterization – Part I: Convection and Cloud Properties Simulated with Spectral Bin and Bulk Microphysics

The ultimate goal of this study is to improve representation of convective transport by cumulus parameterization for meso-scale and climate models. As Part I of the study, we perform extensive evaluations of cloud-resolving simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complexes in mid-latitude continent and tropical regions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) and with two double-moment bulk microphysics schemes: a modified Morrison (MOR) and Milbrandt and Yau (MY2). Compared to observations, in general, SBM gives better simulations of precipitation, vertical velocity of convective cores, and the vertically decreasing trend of radar reflectivity than MOR and MY2, and therefore will be used for analysis of scale-dependence of eddy transport in Part II. The common features of the simulations for all convective systems are (1) the model tends to overestimate convection intensity in the middle and upper troposphere, but SBM can alleviate much of the overestimation and reproduce the observed convection intensity well; (2) the model greatly overestimates radar reflectivity in convective cores (SBM predicts smaller radar reflectivity but does not remove the large overestimation); and (3) the model performs better for mid-latitude convective systems than tropical system. The modeled mass fluxes of the mid latitude systems are not sensitive to microphysics schemes, but are very sensitive for the tropical case indicating strong microphysics modification to convection. Cloud microphysical measurements of rain, snow and graupel in convective cores will be critically important to further elucidate issues within cloud microphysics schemes.

Fan, Jiwen↗

DOE OSTI2014

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-VOC: Speciated Volatile Organic Compounds at the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment Field Campaign Report

Formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is responsible for the growth of particles into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)-relevant sizes and accounts for a substantial fraction of aerosol mass in the troposphere. Despite its wide abundance and importance, capturing SOA in regional and climate models is still challenging due to complex chemical transformations involved in production of SOA. Oxidation products of biogenic hydrocarbons, such as isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes account for the largest fraction of SOA mass over the continents. As such, biogenic SOA is an important source of continental CCN, and has been recently shown to nucleate ice in the deposition mode. To better account for the processes involved in SOA formation in global and regional climate models, we need better measurements of sources and transformations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the precursors to SOA formation in the atmosphere. Understanding aerosol-deep convection interactions is an important science driver of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER), requiring a characterization of the critical controls on aerosol properties and processes, and how those properties and processes vary spatially and temporally in the Houston area. In that environment, the atmospheric photo-oxidative chemistry that drives the evolution and transformation of aerosol properties and processes is strongly impacted by the emission of VOCs, which have both anthropogenic (e.g., industrial, urban, transportation, biomass burning) and biogenic (e.g., marine) sources in the region. Understanding (and disentangling) the complex role of VOCs in such a heterogenous region requires high-time-resolution, speciated VOC measurements that are spatially resolved. To meet these measurement requirements, the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s time-of-flight proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (ToF-PTR-MS) was deployed during the TRACER intensive operational period (IOP) from June to September, 2022 at the ancillary site (ANC), which was sited to provide a characterization of the rural atmospheric environment in contrast to the main site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vertical variation of turbulent entrainment mixing processes in marine stratocumulus clouds using high-resolution digital holography

Marine stratocumulus clouds contribute signi?cantly to the Earth’s radiation budget due to their extensive coverage and high albedo. Yet, subgrid variability in cloud properties such as aerosol concentration, droplet number and precipitation rates lead to considerable errors in global climate models. While these clouds usually have small vertical ex-tent, turbulent entrainment-mixing and precipitation can generate signi?cant variations in droplet number, size and relative dispersion with altitude. In this paper, we analyze turbulent entrainment-mixing processes and the variability in cloud microphysical properties as a function of height within a warm marine stratocumulus cloud layer over the Eastern North Atlantic. We use high resolution airborne holographic measurements and compare them with local turbulence measurements. We ?nd that entrainment-mixing is primarily inhomogeneous near cloud top leading to larger droplet sizes and homogeneous near cloud base leading to smaller droplet sizes. Further analysis of Damk¨ohler number measurements are able to explain the mixing mechanisms at di?erent cloud heights, reinforcing the importance of turbulent mixing and microphysical time scales in deter-mining cloud microphysics.

Desai, Neel↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Important role of stratospheric injection height for the distribution and radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires

More than 1 Tg smoke aerosol was emitted into the atmosphere by the exceptional 2019–2020 southeastern Australian wildfires. Triggered by the extreme fire heat, several deep pyroconvective events carried the smoke directly into the stratosphere. Once there, smoke aerosol remained airborne considerably longer than in lower atmospheric layers. The thick plumes traveled eastward, thereby being distributed across the high and mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, enhancing the atmospheric opacity. Due to the increased atmospheric lifetime of the smoke plume, its radiative effect increased compared to smoke that remains in lower altitudes. Global models describing aerosol-climate impacts lack adequate descriptions of the emission height of aerosols from intense wildfires. Here, we demonstrate, by a combination of aerosol-climate modeling and lidar observations, the importance of the representation of those high-altitude fire smoke layers for estimating the atmospheric energy budget. Through observation-based input into the simulations, the Australian wildfire emissions by pyroconvection are explicitly prescribed to the lower stratosphere in different scenarios. Based on our simulations, the 2019–2020 Australian fires caused a significant top-of-atmosphere (TOA) hemispheric instantaneous direct radiative forcing signal that reached a magnitude comparable to the radiative forcing induced by anthropogenic absorbing aerosol. Up to +0.50 W m -2 instantaneous direct radiative forcing was modeled at TOA, averaged for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.25 W m -2 globally) from January to March 2020 under all-sky conditions. At the surface, on the other hand, an instantaneous solar radiative forcing of up to -0.81 W m -2 was found for clear-sky conditions, with the respective estimates depending on the model configuration and subject to the model uncertainties in the smoke optical properties. Since extreme wildfires are expected to occur more frequently in the rapidly changing climate, our findings suggest that high-altitude wildfire plumes must be adequately considered in climate projections in order to obtain reasonable estimates of atmospheric energy budget changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2022

Machine-Learning Reveals Climate Forcing From Aerosols is Dominated by Increased Cloud Cover

Aerosol-cloud interactions have a potentially large impact on climate, but are poorly quantified and thus contribute a significant and long-standing uncertainty in climate projections. The impacts derived from climate models are poorly constrained by observations, because retrieving robust large-scale signals of aerosol-cloud interactions are frequently hampered by the considerable noise associated with meteorological co-variability. The Iceland-Holuhraun effusive eruption in 2014 resulted in a massive aerosol plume in an otherwise near-pristine environment and thus provided an ideal natural experiment to quantify cloud responses to aerosol perturbations. Here we disentangle significant signals from the noise of meteorological co-variability using a satellite-based machine-learning approach. Our analysis shows that aerosols from the eruption increased cloud cover by approximately 10%, and this appears to be the leading cause of climate forcing, rather than cloud brightening as previously thought. We find that volcanic aerosols do brighten clouds by reducing droplet size, but this has a significantly smaller radiative impact than changes in cloud fraction. These results add substantial observational constraints on the cooling impact of aerosols. Such constraints are critical for improving climate models, which still inadequately represent the complex macro-physical and micro-physical impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2003

Snow and Ice Products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Snow and sea ice products, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites, are or will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The algorithms that produce the products are automated, thus providing a consistent global data set that is suitable for climate studies. The suite of MODIS snow products begins with a 500-m resolution, 2330-km swath snow-cover map that is then projected onto a sinusoidal grid to produce daily and 8-day composite tile products. The sequence proceeds to daily and 8-day composite climate-modeling grid (CMG) products at 0.05 resolution. A daily snow albedo product will be available in early 2003 as a beta test product. The sequence of sea ice products begins with a swath product at 1-km resolution that provides sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST). The sea ice swath products are then mapped onto the Lambert azimuthal equal area or EASE-Grid projection to create a daily and 8-day composite sea ice tile product, also at 1 -km resolution. Climate-Modeling Grid (CMG) sea ice products in the EASE-Grid projection at 4-km resolution are planned for early 2003.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Standard Atmosphere of the Antarctic Plateau

Climate models often rely on standard atmospheres to represent various regions; these broadly capture the important physical and radiative characteristics of regional atmospheres, and become benchmarks for simulations by researchers. The high Antarctic plateau is a significant region of the earth for which such standard atmospheres are as yet unavailable. Moreover, representative profiles from atmospheres over other regions of the planet, including &om the northern high latitudes, are not comparable to the atmosphere over the Antarctic plateau, and are therefore only of limited value as substitutes in climate models. Using data from radiosondes, ozonesondes and satellites along with other observations from South Pole station, typical seasonal atmospheric profiles for the high plateau are compiled. Proper representations of rapidly changing ozone concentrations (during the ozone hole) and the effect of surface elevation on tropospheric temperatures are discussed. The differences between standard profiles developed here and the most similar standard atmosphere that already exists - namely, the Arctic Winter profile - suggest that these new profiles will be extremely useful to make accurate representations of the atmosphere over the high plateau.

Mahesh, Ashwin↗

DOE OSTI2019

Cloud Radiative Feedbacks and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Cloud radiative feedbacks are disabled via “cloud-locking” in the Community Earth System Model, version 1.2 (CESM1.2), to result in a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicity from 2–7 years to decadal time scales. We hypothesize that cloud radiative feedbacks may impact the periodicity in three ways: by 1) modulating heat flux locally into the equatorial Pacific subsurface through negative shortwave cloud feedback on sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), 2) damping the persistence of subtropical southeast Pacific SSTA such that the South Pacific meridional mode impacts the duration of ENSO events, or 3) controlling the meridional width of off-equatorial westerly winds, which impacts the periodicity of ENSO by initiating longer Rossby waves. The result of cloud-locking in CESM1.2 contrasts that of another study, which found that cloud-locking in a different global climate model led to decreased ENSO magnitude across all time scales due to a lack of positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation. CESM1.2 contains this positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation, but either its influence on the surface is decoupled from ocean dynamics or the feedback is only active on interannual time scales. The roles of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO in other global climate models are additionally considered. In particular, it is shown that one cannot predict the role of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO through a multimodel diagnostic analysis. Instead, they must be directly altered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Performance of Current Atmospheric Radiation Codes in Phase I of CIRC

The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC) is intended as an evolving and regularly updated reference source for evaluation of radiative transfer (RT) codes used in Global Climate Models and other atmospheric applications. In our presentation we will discuss our evaluation of the performance of 13 shortwave and 11 longwave RT codes that participated in Phase I of CIRC. CIRC differs from previous intercomparisons in that it relies on an observationally validated catalogue of cases. The seven CIRC Phase I baseline cases, five cloud-free, and two with overcast liquid clouds, are built around observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program that satisfy the goals .of Phase I, namely to examine RT model performance in realistic, yet not overly complex, atmospheric conditions. Besides the seven baseline cases, additional idealized "subcases" are also examined to facilitate interpretation of model errors. We will quantify individual model performance with respect to reference line-by-line calculations, and will also highlight RT code behavior for conditions of doubled CO2 , aspects of utilizing a spectral specification of surface albedo, and the impact of the inclusion of scattering in the thermal infrared. Our analysis suggests that RT codes should work towards improving their calculation of diffuse shortwave flux, shortwave absorption, treatment of spectral surface albedo, and shortwave CO2 forcing. Despite practical difficulties in comparing our results to previous results by the Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) conducted about 20 years ago, it appears that the current generation of RT codes do indeed perform better than the codes of the ICRCCM era. By enhancing the range of conditions under which participating codes are tested, future CIRC phases will hopefully allow even more rigorous examination of RT code performance.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

A description of rainfall interception over large areas

A new scheme is developed for describing interception at spatial scales comparable to the typical resolution of climate models. The scheme is based on the Rutter model of interception and statistical description of the subgrid-scale spatial variability of canopy storage and rainfall. The interception loss simulated by the new scheme is significantly smaller than those simulated by other schemes that do not include considerations for spatial variability. The explanation of this result is partly in the enhancement of spatially averaged canopy drainage due to the large local drainage from the few buckets of large canopy storage. The relative reduction in interception loss simulated by the new scheme may explain the overestimation of interception loss by climate models that do not include the effects of spatial variability on interception processes.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗

DOE OSTI2016

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM): VOLCANIC AEROSOLS DERIVED FROM EMISSIONS

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-loss enhancements of recent volcanic activity. Attribution of climate and ozone variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the apparent rate of global average temperature increases, and variable recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. We have developed a climatology of global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014 calculated based on volcanic and non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources. We have complied a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions between 1990 and 2014, and a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in version 5 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, a component of the Community Earth System Model. Our climatology shows remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD climatology represents a significant improvement over satellite-based analyses, which ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD climatology significantly improves on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses 60% of the SAD measured in situ. Our climatology of aerosol properties is publicly available on the Earth System Grid.

Mills, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

An Assessment of the Radiative Effects of Ice Supersaturation Based on in Situ Observations

We use aircraft observations combined with the reanalysis data to investigate the radiative effects of ice supersaturation (ISS). Our results show that although the excess water vapor over ice saturation itself has relatively small radiative effects, mistaking it as ice crystals in climate models would lead to considerable impacts: on average, +2.49 W/m(exp 2) change in the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, -2.7 W/m(exp 2) change in surface radiation, and 1.47 K/d change in heating rates. The radiative effects of ISS generally increase with the magnitudes of supersaturation. However, there is a strong dependence on the preexisting ice water path, which can even change the sign of the TOA radiative effect. It is therefore important to consider coexistence between ISS and ice clouds and to validate their relationship in the parameterizations of ISS in climate models.

Tan, Xiaoxiao↗